Changes in Harm Perception for E-Cigarettes Among Youth in the United States, 2014-2019.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the trend of harm perception for e-cigarettes and the trend of the association between harm perception for e-cigarettes and for cigarettes among US youth from 2014 to 2019. DESIGN, SETTING AND SUBJECTS: The National Youth Tobacco Survey is an annual, cross-sectional, school-based survey done among youth selected using three-stage probability sampling. ANALYSIS: Data were drawn from the 2014 to 2019 Surveys. A Multinomial logistic regression model was used to assess the association between harm perception for e-cigarettes and harm perception for cigarettes for each year. RESULTS: The percentage of youth who perceived e-cigarettes as harmless decreased from 2014 to 2019 (17.2% to 5.8%). From 2015 to 2018, the percentage of smokers who perceived e-cigarettes as a little harmful increased (33.6% to 41.2%). The positive association between harm perception for e-cigarettes and harm perception for cigarettes became stronger with time. In 2014, the odds of perceiving e-cigarettes as harmless relative to very harmful were 19.55 times greater for youth who perceived cigarettes as harmless, compared to those who perceived cigarettes as very harmful (OR = 19.55; 95% CI: 14.19-26.94). These odds increased to 77.65 times in 2019 (OR = 77.65; 95% CI: 41.48-107.85). CONCLUSION: This study suggests a stronger relationship between perceived harm of cigarettes and e-cigarettes with time. Interventions to prevent smoking have the potential to change e-cigarette use.

Incorporating COVID-19 into Acute Febrile Illness Surveillance Systems, Belize, Kenya, Ethiopia, Peru, and Liberia, 2020-2021.

Existing acute febrile illness (AFI) surveillance systems can be leveraged to identify and characterize emerging pathogens, such as SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention collaborated with ministries of health and implementing partners in Belize, Ethiopia, Kenya, Liberia, and Peru to adapt AFI surveillance systems to generate COVID-19 response information. Staff at sentinel sites collected epidemiologic data from persons meeting AFI criteria and specimens for SARS-CoV-2 testing. A total of 5,501 patients with AFI were enrolled during March 2020-October 2021; >69% underwent SARS-CoV-2 testing. Percentage positivity for SARS-CoV-2 ranged from 4% (87/2,151, Kenya) to 19% (22/115, Ethiopia). We show SARS-CoV-2 testing was successfully integrated into AFI surveillance in 5 low- to middle-income countries to detect COVID-19 within AFI care-seeking populations. AFI surveillance systems can be used to build capacity to detect and respond to both emerging and endemic infectious disease threats.

Acute febrile illness among outpatients seeking health care in Bangladeshi hospitals prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Understanding the distribution of pathogens causing acute febrile illness (AFI) is important for clinical management of patients in resource-poor settings. We evaluated the proportion of AFI caused by specific pathogens among outpatients in Bangladesh. During May 2019-March 2020, physicians screened patients aged ≥2 years in outpatient departments of four tertiary level public hospitals. We randomly enrolled patients having measured fever (≥100.4°F) during assessment with onset within the past 14 days. Blood and urine samples were tested at icddr,b through rapid diagnostic tests, bacterial culture, and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Acute and convalescent samples were sent to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (USA) for Rickettsia and Orientia (R/O) and Leptospira tests. Among 690 patients, 69 (10%) had enteric fever (Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi orSalmonella enterica serotype Paratyphi), 51 (7.4%) Escherichia coli, and 28 (4.1%) dengue detected. Of the 441 patients tested for R/O, 39 (8.8%) had rickettsioses. We found 7 (2%) Leptospira cases among the 403 AFI patients tested. Nine patients (1%) were hospitalized, and none died. The highest proportion of enteric fever (15%, 36/231) and rickettsioses (14%, 25/182) was in Rajshahi. Dhaka had the most dengue cases (68%, 19/28). R/O affected older children and young adults (IQR 8-23 years) and was detected more frequently in the 21-25 years age-group (17%, 12/70). R/O was more likely to be found in patients in Rajshahi region than in Sylhet (aOR 2.49, 95% CI 0.85-7.32) between July and December (aOR 2.01, 1.01-5.23), and who had a history of recent animal entry inside their house than not (aOR 2.0, 0.93-4.3). Gram-negative Enterobacteriaceae were the most common bacterial infections, and dengue was the most common viral infection among AFI patients in Bangladeshi hospitals, though there was geographic variability. These results can help guide empiric outpatient AFI management.

Temporal changes in paediatric and adolescent HIV outcomes across the care continuum in Zambia: an interrupted time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Paediatric and adolescent HIV treatment programmes in sub-Saharan Africa have rapidly expanded and evolved over the past decade. Real-world evidence of how the implementation of new policies over time has affected treatment outcomes is inadequate, but is crucial for guiding the implementation of the next phases of the HIV treatment response for children. We examined how treatment outcomes in Zambia's national paediatric and adolescent HIV treatment programmes have changed over time as new policies were implemented. METHODS: We used data from Zambia's routine electronic health record to analyse children and adolescents living with HIV who were antiretroviral therapy (ART) naive between the ages of 0 and 19 years who were newly enrolled in care between Jan 1, 2011, and March 31, 2019, at 102 health facilities in Lusaka and Western provinces supported by the Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia. Sociodemographic factors, clinical data, facility-level data, and visit history were obtained from the national electronic health record and laboratory systems used in routine HIV care in Zambia. We aimed to characterise the changes in the distribution of the age and sex of new enrolees over time. We used an interrupted time-series design to examine the rates of ART initiation, retention in care, time to ART initiation, and first-line ART regimens among new enrolees across different age strata as they changed over time with the adoption of new ART guidelines in 2014 and 2017. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2011, and March 31, 2019, 26 214 children and adolescents living with HIV who were ART naïve were newly enrolled at one of 102 ART facilities in two provinces in Zambia. Rates of new enrolees increased by 25-35% among children younger than 15 years over time, but by 92·3% between 2011 and 2017 among adolescents, with the largest absolute increase among adolescent girls. Rates of ART initiation increased steadily and in parallel across all age groups from before the implementation of the 2014 guidelines to after the implementation of the 2017 guidelines (<2 years, 42·4% for 2014 and 81·6% for 2017; 2 to <5 years, 39·3% for 2014 and 82·8% for 2017; 5 to <15 years, 49·2% for 2014 and 86·6% for 2017; 15 to 19 years, 52·4% for 2014 and 86·2% for 2017); median time to ART initiation went from 2-3 months to same-day initiation during this same time period. Rates of retention on ART 6 months after linkage saw much smaller improvements over time (<2 years, 35·4% for 2014 and 52·0% for 2017; 2 to <5 years, 40·2% for 2014 and 54·4% for 2017; 5 to <15 years, 46·7% for 2014 and 63·4% for 2017; 15 to 19 years, 40·1% for 2014 and 52·7% for 2017). INTERPRETATION: Improvements in ART initiation occurred largely in parallel across age groups over time, despite universal treatment being implemented at different timepoints for different ages. Although the rates of ART initiation reach high levels, retention on ART was low. This analysis provides a comprehensive examination of how paediatric and adolescent outcomes have evolved over the past decade in Zambia and identifies where more targeted efforts will be needed over the next decade. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health.

Effects of implementing universal and rapid HIV treatment on initiation of antiretroviral therapy and retention in care in Zambia: a natural experiment using regression discontinuity.

BACKGROUND: Universal testing and treatment (UTT) for all people living with HIV has only been assessed under experimental conditions in cluster-randomised trials. The public health effectiveness of UTT policies on the HIV care cascade under real-world conditions is not known. We assessed the real-world effectiveness of universal HIV treatment policies that were implemented in Zambia on Jan 1, 2017. METHODS: We used data from Zambia's routine electronic health record system to analyse antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive adults who newly enrolled in HIV care up to 1 year before and after the implementation of universal treatment (ie, Jan 1, 2016, to Jan 1, 2018) at 117 clinics supported by the Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia. We used a regression discontinuity design to estimate the effects of implementing UTT on same-day ART initiation, ART initiation within 1 month, and retention on ART at 12 months (defined as clinic attendance 9-15 months after enrolment and at least 6 months on ART), under the assumption that patients presenting immediately before and after UTT implementation were balanced on both measured and unmeasured characteristics. We did an instrumental variable analysis to estimate the effect of same-day ART initiation under routine conditions on 12-month retention on ART. FINDINGS: 65 673 newly enrolled patients with HIV (40 858 [62·2%] female, median age 32 years [IQR 26-39], median CD4 count 287 cells per µL [IQR 147-466]) were eligible for inclusion in the analyses; 31 145 enrolled before implementation of UTT, and 34 528 enrolled after UTT. Implementation of universal treatment increased same-day ART initiation from 41·7% to 74·8% (risk difference [RD] 33·1%, 95% CI 30·5-35·7), ART initiation by 1 month from 69·6% to 87·0% (RD 17·4%, 15·5-19·3), and 12-month retention on ART from 56·2% to 63·3% (RD 7·1%, 4·3-9·9). ART initiation rates became more uniform across patient subgroups after implementation of universal treatment, but heterogeneity in 12-month retention on ART between subgroups was unchanged. Instrumental variable analyses indicated that same-day ART initiation in routine settings led to a 15·8% increase (95% CI 12·1-19·5) in 12-month retention on ART. INTERPRETATION: UTT policies implemented in Zambia increased the rapidity and uptake of ART, as well as retention on ART at 12 months, although overall retention on ART remained suboptimal. UTT policies reduced disparities in treatment initiation, but not 12-month retention on ART. Natural experiments reveal both the anticipated and unanticipated effects of real-world implementation and indicate the need for new strategies leveraging the short-term effects of UTT to cultivate long-term treatment success. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health.

The Clinical Course of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in a US Hospital System: A Multistate Analysis.

There are limited data on longitudinal outcomes for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospitalizations that account for transitions between clinical states over time. Using electronic health record data from a hospital network in the St. Louis, Missouri, region, we performed multistate analyses to examine longitudinal transitions and outcomes among hospitalized adults with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 with respect to 15 mutually exclusive clinical states. Between March 15 and July 25, 2020, a total of 1,577 patients in the network were hospitalized with COVID-19 (49.9% male; median age, 63 years (interquartile range, 50-75); 58.8% Black). Overall, 34.1% (95% confidence interval (CI): 26.4, 41.8) had an intensive care unit admission and 12.3% (95% CI: 8.5, 16.1) received invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). The risk of decompensation peaked immediately after admission; discharges peaked around days 3-5, and deaths plateaued between days 7 and 16. At 28 days, 12.6% (95% CI: 9.6, 15.6) of patients had died (4.2% (95% CI: 3.2, 5.2) had received IMV) and 80.8% (95% CI: 75.4, 86.1) had been discharged. Among those receiving IMV, 35.1% (95% CI: 28.2, 42.0) remained intubated after 14 days; after 28 days, 37.6% (95% CI: 30.4, 44.7) had died and only 37.7% (95% CI: 30.6, 44.7) had been discharged. Multistate methods offer granular characterizations of the clinical course of COVID-19 and provide essential information for guiding both clinical decision-making and public health planning.