Outpatient hysteroscopy: Suitable for all? A retrospective cohort study of safety, success and acceptability in Australia.

BACKGROUND: In Australia, gynaecologists continue to assess and investigate abnormal uterine bleeding with inpatient hysteroscopy despite evidence validating outpatient hysteroscopy services. AIM: This retrospective cohort study assessed the safety, success and acceptability of office hysteroscopy in a gynae-oncology rapid-access clinic over six years in Sydney, Australia, and included all women without an age or body mass index (BMI) cut-off using a 'see and treat' concept. METHODS: A database was created and analysed retrospectively for patients who attended office hysteroscopy service between January 2016 and March 2021 (63 months, 481 eligible). An anonymous modified PAT-32 patient satisfaction questionnaire was also offered to an initial cohort after their procedure to gauge insightful feedback about acceptability. RESULTS: A total of 92% of patients had successful outpatient hysteroscopic access; 24% of cases required hysteroscopy under general anaesthesia (GA) despite pathology in over 50% of cases; 68% of the total were able to be managed with outpatient hysteroscopy and did not require a follow-up GA hysteroscopy. This paper is also the first of its kind to our knowledge to incorporate patients >65 years, those with a BMI >35 and those with a history of cervical stenosis. This study suggests that age and BMI do not impact the success rate of the procedure. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that outpatient hysteroscopy is an acceptable, safe procedure that is well tolerated by patients. Considering our rapid-access hysteroscopy service allowed 68% of the patient cohort to avoid hysteroscopy under GA, we estimate conservatively ~$63 million per year in Australia could be saved by performing office hysteroscopies.

Racial disparities in initiation of chemotherapy among breast cancer patients with discretionary treatment indication in the state of Georgia.

PURPOSE: The majority of breast cancer patients are diagnosed with early-stage estrogen receptor (ER) positive disease. Despite effective treatments for these cancers, Black women have higher mortality than White women. We investigated demographic and clinical factors associated with receipt of chemotherapy among those with a discretionary indication who are at risk for overtreatment. METHODS: Using Georgia Cancer Registry data, we identified females diagnosed with ER positive breast cancer who had a discretionary indication for chemotherapy (2010-2017). We used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) associating patient demographic and clinical characteristics with chemotherapy initiation overall, and comparing non-Hispanic Black (NHB) with non-Hispanic White (NHW) women within strata of patient factors. RESULTS: We identified 11,993 ER positive breast cancer patients with a discretionary indication for chemotherapy. NHB patients were more likely to initiate chemotherapy compared with NHW women (OR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.28, 1.56). Race differences in chemotherapy initiation were pronounced among those who did not receive Oncotype DX testing (OR = 1.47, 95% CI: 1.31, 1.65) and among those residing in high socioeconomic status neighborhoods (OR = 2.48, 95% CI: 1.70, 3.61). However, we observed equitable chemotherapy receipt among patients who received Oncotype DX testing (OR = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.71, 1.14), were diagnosed with grade 1 disease (OR = 1.00, 95% CI: 0.74, 1.37), and those resided in rural areas (OR = 1.01, 95% CI: 0.76, 1.36). CONCLUSION: We observed racial disparities in the initiation of chemotherapy overall and by sociodemographic and clinical factors, and more equitable outcomes when clinical guidelines were followed.

A Comparison of Three Area-Level Indices of Neighborhood Deprivation and Socioeconomic Status and their Applicability to Breast Cancer Mortality.

Neighborhood deprivation indices are widely used in research, but the performance of these indices has rarely been directly compared in the same analysis. We examined the Area Deprivation Index, Neighborhood Deprivation Index, and Yost index, and compared their associations with breast cancer mortality. Indices were constructed for Georgia census block groups using 2011-2015 American Community Survey data. Pearson correlation coefficients and percent agreement were calculated. Associations between each index and breast cancer mortality were estimated among 36,795 women diagnosed with breast cancer using Cox proportional hazards regression. The indices were strongly correlated (absolute value of correlation coefficients > 0.77), exhibited moderate (41.4%) agreement, and were similarly associated with a 36% increase in breast cancer mortality. The similar associations with breast cancer mortality suggest the indices measure the same underlying construct, despite only moderate agreement. By understanding their correlations, agreement, and associations with health outcomes, researchers can choose the most appropriate index for analysis.

Marburg virus disease outbreaks, mathematical models, and disease parameters: a systematic review.

The 2023 Marburg virus disease outbreaks in Equatorial Guinea and Tanzania highlighted the importance of better understanding this lethal pathogen. We did a systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42023393345) of peer-reviewed articles reporting historical outbreaks, modelling studies, and epidemiological parameters focused on Marburg virus disease. We searched PubMed and Web of Science from database inception to March 31, 2023. Two reviewers evaluated all titles and abstracts with consensus-based decision making. To ensure agreement, 13 (31%) of 42 studies were double-extracted and a custom-designed quality assessment questionnaire was used for risk of bias assessment. We present detailed information on 478 reported cases and 385 deaths from Marburg virus disease. Analysis of historical outbreaks and seroprevalence estimates suggests the possibility of undetected Marburg virus disease outbreaks, asymptomatic transmission, or cross-reactivity with other pathogens, or a combination of these. Only one study presented a mathematical model of Marburg virus transmission. We estimate an unadjusted, pooled total random effect case fatality ratio of 61·9% (95% CI 38·8-80·6; I2=93%). We identify epidemiological parameters relating to transmission and natural history, for which there are few estimates. This systematic review and the accompanying database provide a comprehensive overview of Marburg virus disease epidemiology and identify key knowledge gaps, contributing crucial information for mathematical models to support future Marburg virus disease epidemic responses.

Retrospective evaluation of real-time estimates of global COVID-19 transmission trends and mortality forecasts.

Since 8th March 2020 up to the time of writing, we have been producing near real-time weekly estimates of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and forecasts of deaths due to COVID-19 for all countries with evidence of sustained transmission, shared online. We also developed a novel heuristic to combine weekly estimates of transmissibility to produce forecasts over a 4-week horizon. Here we present a retrospective evaluation of the forecasts produced between 8th March to 29th November 2020 for 81 countries. We evaluated the robustness of the forecasts produced in real-time using relative error, coverage probability, and comparisons with null models. During the 39-week period covered by this study, both the short- and medium-term forecasts captured well the epidemic trajectory across different waves of COVID-19 infections with small relative errors over the forecast horizon. The model was well calibrated with 56.3% and 45.6% of the observations lying in the 50% Credible Interval in 1-week and 4-week ahead forecasts respectively. The retrospective evaluation of our models shows that simple transmission models calibrated using routine disease surveillance data can reliably capture the epidemic trajectory in multiple countries. The medium-term forecasts can be used in conjunction with the short-term forecasts of COVID-19 mortality as a useful planning tool as countries continue to relax public health measures.

Census Tracts Are Not Neighborhoods: Addressing Spatial Misalignment in Studies Examining the Impact of Historical Redlining on Present-day Health Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Research examining the effects of historical redlining on present-day health outcomes is often complicated by the misalignment of contemporary census boundaries with the neighborhood boundaries drawn by the US Home Owners' Loan Corporation (HOLC) in the 1930s. Previous studies have used different approaches to assign historical HOLC grades to contemporary geographies, but how well they capture redlining exposure is unknown. METHODS: Our analysis included 7711 residences identified in the Multiple Listing Service database in Atlanta, Georgia (2017-2022). We evaluated the classification of HOLC grade assignment (A, B, C, D, or ungraded) when assigning exposure under four area-level approaches (centroid, majority land area, weighted score, and highest HOLC) compared with using complete address data (gold standard). We additionally compared approaches across three 2020 census geographies (tract, block group, and block). RESULTS: When comparing the use of census tracts to complete address data, sensitivity was highest for the weighted score approach, which correctly identified 77% of residences in truly A-D graded neighborhoods as compared with the majority land area (44%), centroid (54%), and highest HOLC (59%) approaches. Regarding specificity, the majority land area approach best-classified residences in truly ungraded neighborhoods (93%) as compared with the weighted score (65%), centroid (81%), and highest HOLC (54%) approaches. Classification improved regardless of approach when using census block compared with the census tract. CONCLUSIONS: Misclassification of historical redlining exposure is inevitable when using contemporary census geographies rather than complete address data. This study provides a framework for assessing spatial misalignment and selecting an approach for classification.

Estimating the epidemic reproduction number from temporally aggregated incidence data: A statistical modelling approach and software tool.

The time-varying reproduction number (Rt) is an important measure of epidemic transmissibility that directly informs policy decisions and the optimisation of control measures. EpiEstim is a widely used opensource software tool that uses case incidence and the serial interval (SI, time between symptoms in a case and their infector) to estimate Rt in real-time. The incidence and the SI distribution must be provided at the same temporal resolution, which can limit the applicability of EpiEstim and other similar methods, e.g. for contexts where the time window of incidence reporting is longer than the mean SI. In the EpiEstim R package, we implement an expectation-maximisation algorithm to reconstruct daily incidence from temporally aggregated data, from which Rt can then be estimated. We assess the validity of our method using an extensive simulation study and apply it to COVID-19 and influenza data. For all datasets, the influence of intra-weekly variability in reported data was mitigated by using aggregated weekly data. Rt estimated on weekly sliding windows using incidence reconstructed from weekly data was strongly correlated with estimates from the original daily data. The simulation study revealed that Rt was well estimated in all scenarios and regardless of the temporal aggregation of the data. In the presence of weekend effects, Rt estimates from reconstructed data were more successful at recovering the true value of Rt than those obtained from reported daily data. These results show that this novel method allows Rt to be successfully recovered from aggregated data using a simple approach with very few data requirements. Additionally, by removing administrative noise when daily incidence data are reconstructed, the accuracy of Rt estimates can be improved.

Extending EpiEstim to estimate the transmission advantage of pathogen variants in real-time: SARS-CoV-2 as a case-study.

The evolution of SARS-CoV-2 has demonstrated that emerging variants can set back the global COVID-19 response. The ability to rapidly assess the threat of new variants is critical for timely optimisation of control strategies. We present a novel method to estimate the effective transmission advantage of a new variant compared to a reference variant combining information across multiple locations and over time. Through an extensive simulation study designed to mimic real-time epidemic contexts, we show that our method performs well across a range of scenarios and provide guidance on its optimal use and interpretation of results. We also provide an open-source software implementation of our method. The computational speed of our tool enables users to rapidly explore spatial and temporal variations in the estimated transmission advantage. We estimate that the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant is 1.46 (95% Credible Interval 1.44-1.47) and 1.29 (95% CrI 1.29-1.30) times more transmissible than the wild type, using data from England and France respectively. We further estimate that Delta is 1.77 (95% CrI 1.69-1.85) times more transmissible than Alpha (England data). Our approach can be used as an important first step towards quantifying the threat of emerging or co-circulating variants of infectious pathogens in real-time.

Assessing the variability in experimental hut trials evaluating insecticide-treated nets against malaria vectors.

Experimental hut trials (EHTs) are used to evaluate indoor vector control interventions against malaria vectors in a controlled setting. The level of variability present in the assay will influence whether a given study is well powered to answer the research question being considered. We utilised disaggregated data from 15 previous EHTs to gain insight into the behaviour typically observed. Using simulations from generalised linear mixed models to obtain power estimates for EHTs, we show how factors such as the number of mosquitoes entering the huts each night and the magnitude of included random effects can influence study power. A wide variation in behaviour is observed in both the mean number of mosquitoes collected per hut per night (ranging from 1.6 to 32.5) and overdispersion in mosquito mortality. This variability in mortality is substantially greater than would be expected by chance and should be included in all statistical analyses to prevent false precision of results. We utilise both superiority and non-inferiority trials to illustrate our methodology, using mosquito mortality as the outcome of interest. The framework allows the measurement error of the assay to be reliably assessed and enables the identification of outlier results which could warrant further investigation. EHTs are increasingly playing an important role in the evaluation and regulation of indoor vector control interventions so it is important to ensure that these studies are adequately powered.

Cohort profile: pathways to care among people with disorders of sex development (DSD).

PURPOSE: The 'DSD Pathways' study was initiated to assess health status and patterns of care among people enrolled in large integrated healthcare systems and diagnosed with conditions comprising the broad category of disorders (differences) of sex development (DSD). The objectives of this communication are to describe methods of cohort ascertainment for two specific DSD conditions-classic congenital adrenal hyperplasia with 46,XX karyotype (46,XX CAH) and complete androgen insensitivity syndrome (CAIS). PARTICIPANTS: Using electronic health records we developed an algorithm that combined diagnostic codes, clinical notes, laboratory data and pharmacy records to assign each cohort candidate a 'strength-of-evidence' score supporting the diagnosis of interest. A sample of cohort candidates underwent a review of the full medical record to determine the score cutoffs for final cohort validation. FINDINGS TO DATE: Among 5404 classic 46,XX CAH cohort candidates the strength-of-evidence scores ranged between 0 and 10. Based on sample validation, the eligibility cut-off for full review was set at the strength-of-evidence score of ≥7 among children under the age of 8 years and ≥8 among older cohort candidates. The final validation of all cohort candidates who met the cut-off criteria identified 115 persons with classic 46,XX CAH. The strength-of-evidence scores among 648 CAIS cohort candidates ranged from 2 to 10. There were no confirmed CAIS cases among cohort candidates with scores <6. The in-depth medical record review for candidates with scores ≥6 identified 61 confirmed cases of CAIS. FUTURE PLANS: As the first cohort of this type, the DSD Pathways study is well-positioned to fill existing knowledge gaps related to management and outcomes in this heterogeneous population. Analyses will examine diagnostic and referral patterns, adherence to care recommendations and physical and mental health morbidities examined through comparisons of DSD and reference populations and analyses of health status across DSD categories.

Drivers of racial, regional, and socioeconomic disparities in late-stage breast cancer mortality.

BACKGROUND: The authors identified tumor, treatment, and patient characteristics that may contribute to differences in breast cancer (BC) mortality by race, rurality, and area-level socioeconomic status (SES) among women diagnosed with stage IIIB-IV BC in Georgia. METHODS: Using the Georgia Cancer Registry, 3084 patients with stage IIIB-IV primary BC (2013-2017) were identified. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) comparing mortality among non-Hispanic Black (NHB) versus non-Hispanic White (NHW), residents of rural versus urban neighborhoods, and residents of low- versus high-SES neighborhoods by tumor, treatment, and patient characteristics. The mediating effects of specific characteristics on the association between race and BC mortality were estimated. RESULTS: Among the study population, 41% were NHB, 21% resided in rural counties, and 72% resided in low SES neighborhoods. The authors observed mortality disparities by race (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.13, 1.41) and rurality (HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.00, 1.30), but not by SES (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.91, 1.19). In the stratified analyses, racial disparities were the most pronounced among women with HER2 overexpressing tumors (HR, 2.30; 95% CI, 1.53, 3.45). Residing in a rural county was associated with increased mortality among uninsured women (HR, 2.25; 95% CI, 1.31, 3.86), and the most pronounced SES disparities were among younger women (<40 years: HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 0.88, 2.42). CONCLUSIONS: There is considerable variation in racial, regional, and socioeconomic disparities in late-stage BC mortality by tumor, treatment, and patient characteristics.

Race Differences in the Associations between Menstrual Cycle Characteristics and Epithelial Ovarian Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Menstrual cycle characteristics-including age at menarche and cycle length- have been associated with ovarian cancer risk in White women. However, the associations between menstrual cycle characteristics and ovarian cancer risk among Black women have been sparsely studied. METHODS: Using the Ovarian Cancer in Women of African Ancestry (OCWAA) Consortium that includes 1,024 Black and 2,910 White women diagnosed with epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) and 2,325 Black and 7,549 White matched controls, we investigated associations between menstrual cycle characteristics (age at menarche, age at menstrual regularity, cycle length, and ever missing three periods) and EOC risk by race and menopausal status. Multivariable logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: Black women were more likely to be <11 years at menarche than White women (controls: 9.9% vs. 6.0%). Compared with ≥15 years at menarche, <11 years was associated with increased EOC risk for White (OR = 1.25; 95% CI, 0.99-1.57) but not Black women (OR = 1.10; 95% CI, 0.80-1.55). Among White women only, the association was greater for premenopausal (OR = 2.20; 95% CI, 1.31-3.68) than postmenopausal women (OR = 1.06; 95% CI, 0.82-1.38). Irregular cycle length was inversely associated with risk for White (OR = 0.78; 95% CI, 0.62-0.99) but not Black women (OR = 1.06; 95% CI, 0.68-1.66). CONCLUSIONS: Earlier age at menarche and cycle irregularity are associated with increased EOC risk for White but not Black women. IMPACT: Associations between menstrual cycle characteristics and EOC risk were not uniform by race.

Time to Surgical Treatment and Facility Characteristics as Potential Drivers of Racial Disparities in Breast Cancer Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Black women are more likely to die of breast cancer than White women. This study evaluated the contribution of time to primary surgical management and surgical facility characteristics to racial disparities in breast cancer mortality among both Black and White women. METHODS: The study identified 2224 Black and 3787 White women with a diagnosis with stages I to III breast cancer (2010-2014). Outcomes included time to surgical treatment (> 30 days from diagnosis) and breast cancer mortality. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) associating surgical facility characteristics with surgical delay were computed, and Cox proportional hazards regression was used to compute hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs associating delay and facility characteristics with breast cancer mortality. RESULTS: Black women were two times more likely to have a surgical delay (OR, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.92-2.41) than White women. Racial disparity in surgical delay was least pronounced among women treated at a non-profit facility (OR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.70-2.25). The estimated mortality rate for Black women was two times that for White women (HR, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.83-2.46). Racial disparities in breast cancer mortality were least pronounced among women who experienced no surgical delay (HR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.28-2.56), received surgery at a government facility (HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 0.76-2.27), or underwent treatment at a Commission on Cancer-accredited facility (HR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.38-2.40). CONCLUSIONS: Black women were more likely to experience a surgical delay and breast cancer death. Persistent racial disparities in breast cancer mortality were observed across facility characteristics except for government facilities.

Understanding gastrointestinal cancer mortality disparities in a racially and geographically diverse population.

BACKGROUND: Gastrointestinal (GI) cancers represent a diverse group of diseases. We assessed differences in geographic and racial disparities in cancer-specific mortality across subtypes, overall and by patient characteristics, in a geographically and racially diverse US population. METHODS: Clinical, sociodemographic, and treatment characteristics for patients diagnosed during 2009-2014 with colorectal cancer (CRC), pancreatic cancer, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), or gastric cancer in Georgia were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program database. Patients were classified by geography (rural or urban county) and race and followed for cancer-specific death. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate stratified hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between geography or race and cancer-specific mortality. RESULTS: Overall, 77% of the study population resided in urban counties and 33% were non-Hispanic Black (NHB). For all subtypes, NHB patients were more likely to reside in urban counties than non-Hispanic White patients. Residing in a rural county was associated with an overall increased hazard of cancer-specific mortality for HCC (HR = 1.15, 95% CI = 1.02-1.31), pancreatic (HR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.03-1.19), and gastric cancer (HR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.03-1.32) but near-null for CRC. Overall racial disparities were observed for CRC (HR = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.11-1.25) and HCC (HR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.01-1.24). Geographic disparities were most pronounced among HCC patients receiving surgery. Racial disparities were pronounced among CRC patients receiving any treatment. CONCLUSION: Geographic disparities were observed for the rarer GI cancer subtypes, and racial disparities were pronounced for CRC. Treatment factors appear to largely drive both disparities.

Optimising the deployment of vector control tools against malaria: a data-informed modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Concern that insecticide resistant mosquitoes are threatening malaria control has driven the development of new types of insecticide treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide. Malaria control programmes have a choice of vector control interventions although it is unclear which controls should be used to combat the disease. The study aimed at producing a framework to easily compare the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of different malaria prevention measures currently in widespread use. METHODS: We used published data from experimental hut trials conducted across Africa to characterise the entomological effect of pyrethroid-only ITNs versus ITNs combining a pyrethroid insecticide with the synergist piperonyl butoxide (PBO). We use these estimates to parameterise a dynamic mathematical model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria which is validated for two sites by comparing simulated results to empirical data from randomised control trials (RCTs) in Tanzania and Uganda. We extrapolated model simulations for a series of potential scenarios likely across the sub-Saharan African region and include results in an online tool (Malaria INtervention Tool [MINT]) that aims to identify optimum vector control intervention packages for scenarios with varying budget, price, entomological and epidemiological factors. FINDINGS: Our model indicates that switching from pyrethroid-only to pyrethroid-PBO ITNs could averted up to twice as many cases, although the additional benefit is highly variable and depends on the setting conditions. We project that annual delivery of long-lasting, non-pyrethroid IRS would prevent substantially more cases over 3-years, while pyrethroid-PBO ITNs tend to be the most cost-effective intervention per case averted. The model was able to predict prevalence and efficacy against prevalence in both RCTs for the intervention types tested. MINT is applicable to regions of sub-Saharan Africa with endemic malaria and provides users with a method of designing intervention packages given their setting and budget. INTERPRETATION: The most cost-effective vector control package will vary locally. Models able to recreate results of RCTs can be used to extrapolate outcomes elsewhere to support evidence-based decision making for investment in vector control. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, IVCC, Wellcome Trust. TRANSLATION: For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Is There a Link Between Hormone Use and Diabetes Incidence in Transgender People? Data From the STRONG Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in transgender and gender diverse (TGD) persons, especially those receiving gender-affirming hormone therapy (GAHT) is an area of clinical and research importance. METHODS: We used data from an electronic health record-based cohort study of persons 18 years and older enrolled in 3 integrated health care systems. The cohort included 2869 transfeminine members matched to 28 300 cisgender women and 28 258 cisgender men on age, race/ethnicity, calendar year, and site, and 2133 transmasculine members similarly matched to 20 997 cisgender women and 20 964 cisgender men. Cohort ascertainment spanned 9 years from 2006 through 2014 and follow-up extended through 2016. Data on T2DM incidence and prevalence were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression models, respectively. All analyses controlled for body mass index. RESULTS: Both prevalent and incident T2DM was more common in the transfeminine cohort relative to cisgender female referents with odds ratio and hazard ratio (95% CI) estimates of 1.3 (1.1-1.5) and 1.4 (1.1-1.8), respectively. No significant differences in prevalence or incidence of T2DM were observed across the remaining comparison groups, both overall and in TGD persons with evidence of GAHT receipt. CONCLUSION: Although transfeminine people may be at higher risk for T2DM compared with cisgender females, the corresponding difference relative to cisgender males is not discernable. Moreover, there is little evidence that T2DM occurrence in either transfeminine or transmasculine persons is attributable to GAHT use.

Real-time estimation of the epidemic reproduction number: Scoping review of the applications and challenges.

The time-varying reproduction number (Rt) is an important measure of transmissibility during outbreaks. Estimating whether and how rapidly an outbreak is growing (Rt > 1) or declining (Rt < 1) can inform the design, monitoring and adjustment of control measures in real-time. We use a popular R package for Rt estimation, EpiEstim, as a case study to evaluate the contexts in which Rt estimation methods have been used and identify unmet needs which would enable broader applicability of these methods in real-time. A scoping review, complemented by a small EpiEstim user survey, highlight issues with the current approaches, including the quality of input incidence data, the inability to account for geographical factors, and other methodological issues. We summarise the methods and software developed to tackle the problems identified, but conclude that significant gaps remain which should be addressed to enable easier, more robust and applicable estimation of Rt during epidemics.

Global patterns of submicroscopic Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection: insights from a systematic review and meta-analysis of population surveys.

BACKGROUND: Adoption of molecular techniques to detect Plasmodium falciparum infection has revealed many previously undetected (by microscopy) yet transmissible low-density infections. The proportion of these infections is typically highest in low transmission settings, but drivers of submicroscopic infection remain unclear. Here, we updated a previous systematic review of asexual P falciparum prevalence by microscopy PCR in the same population. We aimed to explore potential drivers of submicroscopic infection and to identify the locations where submicroscopic infections are most common. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis we searched PubMed and Web of Science from Jan 1, 2010, until Oct 11, 2020, for cross-sectional studies reporting data on asexual P falciparum prevalence by both microscopy and PCR. Surveys of pregnant women, surveys in which participants had been chosen based on symptoms or treatment, or surveys that did not involve a population from a defined location were excluded. Both the number of individuals tested and the number of individuals who tested positive by microscopy or PCR, or both, for P falciparum infection were extracted. Bayesian regression modelling was used to explore determinants of the size of the submicroscopic reservoir including geographical location, seasonality, age, methodology, and current or historical patterns of transmission. FINDINGS: Of 4893 identified studies, we retained 121 after screening and removal of duplicates. 45 studies from a previous systematic review were included giving 166 studies containing 551 cross-sectional survey microscopy and PCR prevalence pairs. Our results show that submicroscopic infections predominate in low-transmission settings across all regions, but also reveal marked geographical variation, with the proportion of infections that are submicroscopic being highest in South American surveys and lowest in west African surveys. Although current transmission levels partly explain these results, we find that historical transmission intensity also represents a crucial determinant of the size of the submicroscopic reservoir, as does the demographic structure of the infected population (with submicroscopic infection more likely to occur in adults than in children) and the PCR or microscopy methodology used. We also observed a small yet significant influence of seasonality, with fewer submicroscopic infections observed in the wet season than the dry season. Integrating these results with estimates of infectivity in relation to parasite density suggests the contribution of submicroscopic infections to transmission across different settings is likely to be highly variable. INTERPRETATION: Significant variation in the prevalence of submicroscopic infection exists even across settings characterised by similar current levels of transmission. These differences in submicroscopic epidemiology potentially warrant different approaches to targeting this infected subgroup across different settings to eliminate malaria. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, The Royal Society, and the UK Medical Research Council.

Racial Disparities in Diagnostic Delay Among Women With Breast Cancer.

PURPOSE: Early diagnosis is fundamental to reducing breast cancer (BC) mortality, and understanding potential barriers from initial screening to confirmed diagnosis is essential. The aim of this study was to evaluate patient characteristics that contribute to delay in diagnosis of screen-detected cancers and the contribution of delay to tumor characteristics and BC mortality. METHODS: Three hundred sixty-two White and 368 Black women were identified who were screened and received subsequent BC diagnoses within Emory Healthcare, a part of Emory University health care system (2010-2014). Multivariable-adjusted logistic regression was used to calculate the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) associating patient characteristics with delay to diagnostic evaluation (≥30 versus <30 days), delay to biopsy (≥15 versus <15 days), and total delay (≥45 versus <45 days). Additionally, the ORs and 95% CIs associating delay with tumor characteristics and BC mortality were computed. RESULTS: Black women and women diagnosed at later stages, with larger tumor sizes, and with triple-negative tumors were more likely to experience ≥45 days to diagnosis. In multivariable-adjusted models, Black women had at least a two-fold increase in the odds of delay to diagnostic evaluation (OR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.45-2.71), biopsy delays (OR, 2.41; 95% CI, 1.67-3.41), and total delays ≥45 days (OR, 2.22; 95% CI, 1.63-3.02) compared with White women. A 1.6-fold increased odds of BC mortality was observed among women who experienced total delays ≥45 days compared with women without delays in diagnosis (OR, 1.57, 95% CI, 0.96-2.58). CONCLUSIONS: The study demonstrated racial disparities in delays in the diagnostic process for screen-detected malignancies. Total delay in diagnosis was associated with an increase in BC mortality.

Progression of Gender Dysphoria in Children and Adolescents: A Longitudinal Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The progression of gender-expansive behavior to gender dysphoria and to gender-affirming hormonal treatment (GAHT) in children and adolescents is poorly understood. METHODS: A cohort of 958 gender-diverse (GD) children and adolescents who did not have a gender dysphoria-related diagnosis (GDRD) or GAHT at index were identified. Rates of first GDRD and first GAHT prescription were compared across demographic groups. RESULTS: Overall, 29% of participants received a GDRD and 25% were prescribed GAHT during the average follow-up of 3.5 years (maximum 9 years). Compared with youth assigned male sex at birth, those assigned female sex at birth were more likely to receive a diagnosis and initiate GAHT with hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) estimates of 1.3 (1.0-1.7), and 2.5 (1.8-3.3), respectively. A progression to diagnosis was more common among those aged ≥15 years at initial presentation compared with those aged 10 to 14 years and those aged 3 to 9 years (37% vs 28% vs 16%, respectively). By using the youngest group as a reference, the adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for a GDRD were 2.0 (1.3-3.0) for age 10 to 14 years and 2.7 (1.8-3.9) for age ≥15 years. Racial and ethnic minorities were less likely to receive a diagnosis or be prescribed GAHT. CONCLUSIONS: This study characterized the progression of GD behavior in children and adolescents. Less than one-third of GD youth receive an eventual GDRD, and approximately one-quarter receive GAHT. Female sex at birth, older age of initial GD presentation to medical care, and non-Hispanic white race and ethnicity increased the likelihood of receiving diagnosis and treatment.