Important Crop Pollinators Respond Less Negatively to Anthropogenic Land Use Than Other Animals.

Animal-mediated pollination is a key ecosystem service required to some extent by almost three-quarters of the leading human food crops in global food production. Anthropogenic pressures such as habitat loss and land-use intensification are causing shifts in ecological community composition, potentially resulting in declines in pollination services and impacting crop production. Previous research has often overlooked interspecific differences in pollination contribution, yet such differences mean that biodiversity declines will not necessarily negatively impact pollination. Here, we use a novel species-level ecosystem service contribution matrix along with mixed-effects models to explore how groups of terrestrial species who contribute differently to crop pollination respond globally to land-use type, land-use intensity, and availability of natural habitats in the surrounding landscape. We find that the species whose contribution to crop pollination is higher generally respond less negatively (and in some cases positively) to human disturbance of land, compared to species that contribute less or not at all to pollination. This result may be due to these high-contribution species being less sensitive to anthropogenic land conversions, which has led humans to being more reliant on them for crop pollination. However, it also suggests that there is potential for crop pollination to be resilient in the face of anthropogenic land conversions. With such a high proportion of food crops requiring animal-mediated pollination to some extent, understanding how anthropogenic landscapes impact ecological communities and the consequences for pollination is critical for ensuring food security.

Trends in habitat quality and habitat degradation in terrestrial protected areas.

Protected areas are typically considered a cornerstone of conservation programs and play a fundamental role in protecting natural areas and biodiversity. Human-driven land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes lead to habitat loss and biodiversity loss inside protected areas, impairing their effectiveness. However, the global dynamics of habitat quality and habitat degradation in protected areas remain unclear. We used the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model based on global annual remotely sensed data to examine the spatial and temporal trends in habitat quality and degradation in global terrestrial protected areas. Habitat quality represented the ability of habitats to provide suitable conditions for the persistence of individuals and populations, and habitat degradation represented the impacts on habitats from human-driven LULC changes in the surrounding landscape. Based on a linear mixed-effects modeling method, we also explored the relationship between habitat degradation trends and protected area characteristics, biophysical factors, and socioeconomic factors. Habitat quality declined by 0.005 (0.6%) and habitat degradation increased by 0.002 (11%) from 1992 to 2020 globally, and similar trends occurred even in remote or restrictively managed protected areas. Habitat degradation was attributed primarily to nonirrigated cropland (62%) and urbanization (27%) in 2020. Increases in elevation, gross domestic production per capita, and human population density and decreases in agricultural suitability were associated with accelerated habitat degradation. Our results suggest that human-induced LULC changes have expanded from already-exploited areas into relatively undisturbed areas, and that in wealthy countries in particular, degradation is related to rapid urbanization and increasing demand for agricultural products.

Tendencias en la calidad y degradación del hábitat en áreas protegidas terrestres Resumen Las áreas protegidas suelen considerarse la piedra angular de los programas de conservación y desempeñan un papel fundamental en la protección de los espacios naturales y la biodiversidad. Los cambios en el uso y la cobertura del suelo (CUCS) provocados por el hombre conducen a la pérdida de hábitats y de biodiversidad dentro de las áreas protegidas, lo que merma su eficacia. Sin embargo, la dinámica global de la calidad y la degradación del hábitat en las áreas protegidas sigue sin estar clara. Utilizamos el modelo de valoración integrada de servicios ambientales y compensaciones (InVEST), basado en datos anuales mundiales obtenidos por teledetección, para examinar las tendencias espaciales y temporales de la calidad y degradación del hábitat en las áreas terrestres protegidas de todo el mundo. La calidad del hábitat representó su capacidad para proporcionar condiciones adecuadas para la persistencia de individuos y poblaciones, y la degradación del hábitat representó los impactos sobre los hábitats de los cambios CUCS provocados por el hombre en el paisaje circundante. Con base en un método de modelo lineal de efectos mixtos, también exploramos la relación entre las tendencias de degradación del hábitat y las características de las áreas protegidas, los factores biofísicos y los factores socioeconómicos. La calidad del hábitat disminuyó en un 0.005 (0,6%) y la degradación del hábitat aumentó en un 0.002 (11%) entre 1992 y 2020 a nivel mundial, y se produjeron tendencias similares incluso en áreas protegidas remotas o gestionadas de forma restrictiva. La degradación del hábitat se atribuyó principalmente a las tierras de cultivo sin irrigación (62%) y a la urbanización (27%) en 2020. El aumento de la altitud, del producto interno bruto per cápita y de la densidad de población humana, así como la disminución de la idoneidad agrícola, se asociaron a una aceleración de la degradación del hábitat. Nuestros resultados sugieren que los cambios en el CUCS inducidos por el hombre se han extendido desde zonas ya explotadas a zonas relativamente inalteradas, y que, en particular en los países ricos, la degradación está relacionada con la rápida urbanización y la creciente demanda de productos agrícolas.

Global expansion of human-wildlife overlap in the 21st century.

Understanding the extent to which people and wildlife overlap in space and time is critical for the conservation of biodiversity and ecological services. Yet, how global change will reshape the future of human-wildlife overlap has not been assessed. We show that the potential spatial overlap of global human populations and 22,374 terrestrial vertebrate species will increase across ~56.6% and decrease across only ~11.8% of the Earth's terrestrial surface by 2070. Increases are driven primarily by intensification of human population densities, not change in wildlife distributions caused by climate change. The strong spatial heterogeneity of future human-wildlife overlap found in our study makes it clear that local context is imperative to consider, and more targeted area-based land-use planning should be integrated into systematic conservation planning.

Impacts of the global food system on terrestrial biodiversity from land use and climate change.

The global food system is a key driver of land-use and climate change which in turn drive biodiversity change. Developing sustainable food systems is therefore critical to reversing biodiversity loss. We use the multi-regional input-output model EXIOBASE to estimate the biodiversity impacts embedded within the global food system in 2011. Using models that capture regional variation in the sensitivity of biodiversity both to land use and climate change, we calculate the land-driven and greenhouse gas-driven footprints of food using two metrics of biodiversity: local species richness and rarity-weighted species richness. We show that the footprint of land area underestimates biodiversity impact in more species-rich regions and that our metric of rarity-weighted richness places a greater emphasis on biodiversity costs in Central and South America. We find that methane emissions are responsible for 70% of the overall greenhouse gas-driven biodiversity footprint and that, in several regions, emissions from a single year's food production are associated with global biodiversity loss equivalent to 2% or more of that region's total land-driven biodiversity loss. The measures we present are relatively simple to calculate and could be incorporated into decision-making and environmental impact assessments by governments and businesses.

Biodiversity responses to agricultural practices in cropland and natural habitats.

Largely driven by agricultural pressures, biodiversity has experienced great changes globally. Exploring biodiversity responses to agricultural practices associated with agricultural intensification can benefit biodiversity conservation in agricultural landscapes. However, the effects of agricultural practices may also extend to natural habitats. Moreover, agricultural impacts may also vary with geographical region. We analyze biodiversity responses to landscape cropland coverage, cropping frequency, fertiliser and yield, among different land-use types and across geographical regions. We find that species richness and total abundance generally respond negatively to increased landscape cropland coverage. Biodiversity reductions in human land-use types (pasture, plantation forest and cropland) were stronger in tropical than non-tropical regions, which was also true for biodiversity reductions with increasing yield in both human and natural land-use types. Our results underline substantial biodiversity responses to agricultural practices not only in cropland but also in natural habitats, highlighting the fact that biodiversity conservation demands a greater focus on optimizing agricultural management at the landscape scale.

Assessing the global vulnerability of dryland birds to heatwaves.

As global average surface temperature increases, extreme climatic events such as heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, which can drive biodiversity responses such as rapid population declines and/or shifts in species distributions and even local extirpations. However, the impacts of extreme climatic events are largely ignored in conservation plans. Birds are known to be susceptible to heatwaves, especially in dryland ecosystems. Understanding which birds are most vulnerable to heatwaves, and where these birds occur, can offer a scientific basis for adaptive management and conservation. We assessed the relative vulnerability of 1196 dryland bird species to heatwaves using a trait-based approach. Among them, 888 bird species are estimated to be vulnerable to heatwaves (170 highly vulnerable, eight extremely vulnerable), of which ~91% are currently considered non-threatened by the IUCN, which suggests that many species will likely become newly threatened with intensifying climate change. We identified the top three hotspot areas of heatwave-vulnerable species in Australia (208 species), Southern Africa (125 species) and Eastern Africa (99 species). Populations of vulnerable species recorded in the Living Planet Database were found to be declining significantly faster than those of non-vulnerable species (p = .048) after heatwaves occurred. In contrast, no significant difference in population trends between vulnerable and non-vulnerable species was detected when no heatwave occurred (p = .34). This suggests that our vulnerability framework correctly identified vulnerable species and that heatwaves are already impacting the population trends of these species. Our findings will help prioritize heatwave-vulnerable birds in dryland ecosystems in risk mitigation and adaptation management as the frequency of heatwaves accelerates in the coming decades.

Key tropical crops at risk from pollinator loss due to climate change and land use.

Insect pollinator biodiversity is changing rapidly, with potential consequences for the provision of crop pollination. However, the role of land use-climate interactions in pollinator biodiversity changes, as well as consequent economic effects via changes in crop pollination, remains poorly understood. We present a global assessment of the interactive effects of climate change and land use on pollinator abundance and richness and predictions of the risk to crop pollination from the inferred changes. Using a dataset containing 2673 sites and 3080 insect pollinator species, we show that the interactive combination of agriculture and climate change is associated with large reductions in insect pollinators. As a result, it is expected that the tropics will experience the greatest risk to crop production from pollinator losses. Localized risk is highest and predicted to increase most rapidly, in regions of sub-Saharan Africa, northern South America, and Southeast Asia. Via pollinator loss alone, climate change and agricultural land use could be a risk to human well-being.

Species-level correlates of land-use responses and climate-change sensitivity in terrestrial vertebrates.

Land-use and climate change are major pressures on terrestrial biodiversity. Species' extinction risk and responses to human pressures relate to ecological traits and other characteristics in some clades. However, large-scale comparative assessments of the associations between traits and responses to multiple human pressures across multiple clades are needed. We investigated whether a set of ecological characteristics that are commonly measured across terrestrial vertebrates (ecological traits and geographic range area) are associated with species' responses to different land-use types and species' likely sensitivity to climate change. We aimed to test whether generalizable patterns in response to these pressures arise across both pressures and across vertebrate clades, which could inform assessments of the global signature of human pressures on vertebrate biodiversity and guide conservation efforts. At the species level, we investigated associations between land-use responses and ecological characteristics with a space-for-time substitution approach, making use of the PREDICTS database. We investigated associations between ecological characteristics and expected climate-change sensitivity, estimated from properties of species realized climatic niches. Among the characteristics we considered, 3 were consistently associated with strong land-use responses and high climate-change sensitivity across terrestrial vertebrate classes: narrow geographic range, narrow habitat breadth, and specialization on natural habitats (which described whether a species occurs in artificial habitats or not). The associations of other traits with species' land-use responses and climate-change sensitivity often depended on species' class and land-use type, highlighting an important degree of context dependency. In all classes, invertebrate eaters and fruit and nectar eaters tended to be negatively affected in disturbed land-use types, whereas invertebrate-eating and plant- and seed-eating birds were estimated to be more sensitive to climate change, raising concerns about the continuation of ecological processes sustained by these species under global changes. Our results highlight a consistently higher sensitivity of narrowly distributed species and habitat specialists to land-use and climate change, which provides support for capturing such characteristics in large-scale vulnerability assessments.

Correlaciones a nivel de especie de las respuestas al uso de suelo y la susceptibilidad al cambio climático en los vertebrados terrestres Resumen El uso de suelo y el cambio climático tienen una presión importante sobre la biodiversidad terrestre. En algunos clados, el riesgo de extinción de las especies y las respuestas a las presiones humanas se relacionan con los rasgos ecológicos y otras características. Sin embargo, varios clados necesitan evaluaciones comparativas a gran escala de las asociaciones entre los rasgos y las respuestas a las presiones humanas. Investigamos si un conjunto de rasgos ecológicos medidos comúnmente en los vertebrados terrestres (rasgos ecológicos y extensión del área geográfica) está asociado con la respuesta de las especies a los diferentes tipos de uso de suelo y la posible susceptibilidad de la especie al cambio climático. Buscamos comprobar si los patrones generalizables de las respuestas a estas presiones surgen en ambas presiones y en todos los clados de vertebrados, lo que podría guiar las evaluaciones de la huella mundial de presiones humanas sobre la diversidad de vertebrados y los esfuerzos de conservación. Investigamos las asociaciones entre la respuesta al uso de suelo y los rasgos ecológicos a nivel de especie con una estrategia de reemplazo de espacio por tiempo y con información de la base de datos PREDICTS. También investigamos las asociaciones entre los rasgos ecológicos y la susceptibilidad al cambio climático esperada, la cual estimamos a partir de las propiedades de los nichos climáticos de las especies. Entre las características que consideramos, tres estuvieron asociadas de manera regular con respuestas fuertes al uso de suelo y alta susceptibilidad al cambio climático en las diferentes clases de vertebrados: la extensión geográfica limitada, la amplitud reducida de hábitat y la especialización en los hábitats naturales (la cual describe si una especie está presente en un hábitat artificial o no). Las asociaciones de otros rasgos con la respuesta de la especie al uso de suelo y su susceptibilidad al cambio climático con frecuencia dependieron de la clase de la especie y el tipo de uso de suelo, lo que resalta un grado importante de dependencia del contexto. En todas las clases, los frugívoros, nectarívoros y los que comen invertebrados eran propensos a sufrir efectos negativos en los usos de suelo de tipo perturbado, mientras que se estimó que las aves herbívoras, las que se alimentan de semillas y las que se alimentan de invertebrados eran más susceptibles al cambio climático, lo que incrementa la preocupación por la continuación de los procesos ecológicos que viven estas especies bajo los cambios globales. Nuestros resultados resaltan una susceptibilidad al uso de suelo y al cambio climático cada vez mayor en las especies con distribución limitada y las especialistas de hábitat, lo que proporciona un respaldo para la captura de dichas características en las evaluaciones a gran escala de la vulnerabilidad.

Species life-history strategies affect population responses to temperature and land-cover changes.

Human-induced environmental changes have a direct impact on species populations, with some species experiencing declines while others display population growth. Understanding why and how species populations respond differently to environmental changes is fundamental to mitigate and predict future biodiversity changes. Theoretically, species life-history strategies are key determinants shaping the response of populations to environmental impacts. Despite this, the association between species life histories and the response of populations to environmental changes has not been tested. In this study, we analysed the effects of recent land-cover and temperature changes on rates of population change of 1,072 populations recorded in the Living Planet Database. We selected populations with at least 5 yearly consecutive records (after imputation of missing population estimates) between 1992 and 2016, and for which we achieved high population imputation accuracy (in the cases where missing values had to be imputed). These populations were distributed across 553 different locations and included 461 terrestrial amniote vertebrate species (273 birds, 137 mammals, and 51 reptiles) with different life-history strategies. We showed that populations of fast-lived species inhabiting areas that have experienced recent expansion of cropland or bare soil present positive populations trends on average, whereas slow-lived species display negative population trends. Although these findings support previous hypotheses that fast-lived species are better adapted to recover their populations after an environmental perturbation, the sensitivity analysis revealed that model outcomes are strongly influenced by the addition or exclusion of populations with extreme rates of change. Therefore, the results should be interpreted with caution. With climate and land-use changes likely to increase in the future, establishing clear links between species characteristics and responses to these threats is fundamental for designing and conducting conservation actions. The results of this study can aid in evaluating population sensitivity, assessing the likely conservation status of species with poor data coverage, and predicting future scenarios of biodiversity change.

Land use and soil characteristics affect soil organisms differently from above-ground assemblages.

BACKGROUND: Land-use is a major driver of changes in biodiversity worldwide, but studies have overwhelmingly focused on above-ground taxa: the effects on soil biodiversity are less well known, despite the importance of soil organisms in ecosystem functioning. We modelled data from a global biodiversity database to compare how the abundance of soil-dwelling and above-ground organisms responded to land use and soil properties. RESULTS: We found that land use affects overall abundance differently in soil and above-ground assemblages. The abundance of soil organisms was markedly lower in cropland and plantation habitats than in primary vegetation and pasture. Soil properties influenced the abundance of soil biota in ways that differed among land uses, suggesting they shape both abundance and its response to land use. CONCLUSIONS: Our results caution against assuming models or indicators derived from above-ground data can apply to soil assemblages and highlight the potential value of incorporating soil properties into biodiversity models.

Agriculture and climate change are reshaping insect biodiversity worldwide.

Several previous studies have investigated changes in insect biodiversity, with some highlighting declines and others showing turnover in species composition without net declines1-5. Although research has shown that biodiversity changes are driven primarily by land-use change and increasingly by climate change6,7, the potential for interaction between these drivers and insect biodiversity on the global scale remains unclear. Here we show that the interaction between indices of historical climate warming and intensive agricultural land use is associated with reductions of almost 50% in the abundance and 27% in the number of species within insect assemblages relative to those in less-disturbed habitats with lower rates of historical climate warming. These patterns are particularly evident in the tropical realm, whereas some positive responses of biodiversity to climate change occur in non-tropical regions in natural habitats. A high availability of nearby natural habitat often mitigates reductions in insect abundance and richness associated with agricultural land use and substantial climate warming but only in low-intensity agricultural systems. In such systems, in which high levels (75% cover) of natural habitat are available, abundance and richness were reduced by 7% and 5%, respectively, compared with reductions of 63% and 61% in places where less natural habitat is present (25% cover). Our results show that insect biodiversity will probably benefit from mitigating climate change, preserving natural habitat within landscapes and reducing the intensity of agriculture.

Prioritizing conservation in sub-Saharan African lakes based on freshwater biodiversity and algal bloom metrics.

As agricultural land use and climate change continue to pose increasing threats to biodiversity in sub-Saharan Africa, efforts are being made to identify areas where trade-offs between future agricultural development and terrestrial biodiversity conservation are expected to be greatest. However, little research so far has focused on freshwater biodiversity conservation in the context of agricultural development in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to identify lakes and lake areas where freshwater biodiversity is most likely to be affected by eutrophication and Harmful Algal Blooms (i.e., when algae multiply to the extent that they have toxic effects on people and freshwater fauna), some of the most important emerging threats to freshwater ecosystems worldwide, especially with the onset of climate change. Using novel remote-sensing techniques, we identified lakes that demonstrated high biodiversity and algal bloom levels. We calculated the richness of freshwater species and the normalized difference chlorophyll index (NDCI) to prioritize lakes in Ghana, Ethiopia, Zambia, and bordering countries, of high priority for conservation. We identified 169 priority lakes and lake areas for conservation, based on high levels of biodiversity exposed to potentially harmful algal blooms. Zambia had the most lakes identified as conservation priorities (76% of its small lakes and five 100-km2 areas in large lakes). Many of the conservation priority lakes and lake areas identified in this study were in transboundary watersheds; thus, collaborative water resource management and conservation at the watershed scale is needed. The use of remote-sensing tools to prioritize freshwater systems for conservation according to algal-bloom risk is vital in remote, undersampled world regions, especially given the increasing threat posed to freshwater biodiversity by rapidly expanding agriculture and climate change.

Priorización de la Conservación en los Lagos Sub-Saharianos con base en Medidas de Biodiversidad de Aguas Dulces y Floración de Algas Resumen Conforme el cambio climático y el uso de suelo para cultivos siguen representando amenazas crecientes para la biodiversidad en la región sub-sahariana de África, se están realizando esfuerzos para identificar las áreas en donde se espera que sucedan las mayores compensaciones entre el desarrollo agrícola venidero y la conservación de la biodiversidad terrestre. Sin embargo, pocas investigaciones se han centrado en la conservación de la biodiversidad de aguas dulces dentro del contexto del desarrollo agrícola en esta región de África. Nos enfocamos en localizar las áreas en donde sea más probable que la biodiversidad de aguas dulces se vea afectada por la eutrofización y las floraciones de algas (es decir, cuando las algas se multiplican a tal grado que tienen efectos tóxicos sobre las personas y la fauna de agua dulce), dos de las amenazas emergentes más importantes para los ecosistemas de agua dulce en todo el mundo debido al cambio climático. Mediante técnicas novedosas de teledetección identificamos los lagos que se traslapaban con áreas de gran biodiversidad y floraciones de algas. Calculamos la riqueza de especies de agua dulce y el índice de diferencia normalizada de clorofila (IDNC) para identificar los lagos de suma importancia para la conservación en Ghana, Etiopía, Zambia y sus países fronterizos. Identificamos 169 áreas prioritarias para la conservación con base en los niveles elevados de biodiversidad expuestos a las floraciones de algas potencialmente dañinas. Zambia tuvo la mayor cantidad de lagos identificados como prioridades de conservación (76% de sus lagos pequeños y cinco áreas de 100 km2 en los grandes lagos). Las amenazas para la biodiversidad de agua dulce estuvieron presentes a nivel de cuenca, con frecuencia con una extensión más allá de las fronteras políticas de un país; por lo tanto, se requiere que el manejo de recursos hídricos y la conservación sean esfuerzos colaborativos a nivel de cuenca. El uso de herramientas de teledetección para priorizar la conservación de los sistemas de agua dulce de acuerdo con el riesgo de floración de algas es vital en las regiones remotas y poco muestreadas del mundo, especialmente debido a la amenaza creciente que representan el cambio climático y la expansión agrícola para la biodiversidad de agua dulce.

Intensive human land uses negatively affect vertebrate functional diversity.

Land-use change is the leading driver of global biodiversity loss thus characterising its impacts on the functional structure of ecological communities is an urgent challenge. Using a database describing vertebrate assemblages in different land uses, we assess how the type and intensity of land use affect the functional diversity of vertebrates globally. We find that human land uses alter local functional structure by driving declines in functional diversity, with the strongest effects in the most disturbed land uses (intensely used urban sites, cropland and pastures), and among amphibians and birds. Both tropical and temperate areas experience important functional losses, which are only partially offset by functional gains. Tropical assemblages are more likely to show decreases in functional diversity that exceed those expected from species loss alone. Our results indicate that land-use change non-randomly reshapes the functional structure of vertebrate assemblages, raising concerns about the continuation of ecological processes sustained by vertebrates.

Vertebrate population trends are influenced by interactions between land use, climatic position, habitat loss and climate change.

Rapid human-driven environmental changes are impacting animal populations around the world. Currently, land-use and climate change are two of the biggest pressures facing biodiversity. However, studies investigating the impacts of these pressures on population trends often do not consider potential interactions between climate and land-use change. Further, a population's climatic position (how close the ambient temperature and precipitation conditions are to the species' climatic tolerance limits) is known to influence responses to climate change but has yet to be investigated with regard to its influence on land-use change responses over time. Consequently, important variations across species' ranges in responses to environmental changes may be being overlooked. Here, we combine data from the Living Planet and BioTIME databases to carry out a global analysis exploring the impacts of land use, habitat loss, climatic position, climate change and the interactions between these variables, on vertebrate population trends. By bringing these datasets together, we analyse over 7,000 populations across 42 countries. We find that land-use change is interacting with climate change and a population's climatic position to influence rates of population change. Moreover, features of a population's local landscape (such as surrounding land cover) play important roles in these interactions. For example, populations in agricultural land uses where maximum temperatures were closer to their hot thermal limit, declined at faster rates when there had also been rapid losses in surrounding semi-natural habitat. The complex interactions between these variables on populations highlight the importance of taking intraspecific variation and interactions between local and global pressures into account. Understanding how drivers of change are interacting and impacting populations, and how this varies spatially, is critical if we are to identify populations at risk, predict species' responses to future environmental changes and produce suitable conservation strategies.

Annual changes in the Biodiversity Intactness Index in tropical and subtropical forest biomes, 2001-2012.

Few biodiversity indicators are available that reflect the state of broad-sense biodiversity-rather than of particular taxa-at fine spatial and temporal resolution. One such indicator, the Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII), estimates how the average abundance of the native terrestrial species in a region compares with their abundances in the absence of pronounced human impacts. We produced annual maps of modelled BII at 30-arc-second resolution (roughly 1 km at the equator) across tropical and subtropical forested biomes, by combining annual data on land use, human population density and road networks, and statistical models of how these variables affect overall abundance and compositional similarity of plants, fungi, invertebrates and vertebrates. Across tropical and subtropical biomes, BII fell by an average of 1.9 percentage points between 2001 and 2012, with 81 countries seeing an average reduction and 43 an average increase; the extent of primary forest fell by 3.9% over the same period. We did not find strong relationships between changes in BII and countries' rates of economic growth over the same period; however, limitations in mapping BII in plantation forests may hinder our ability to identify these relationships. This is the first time temporal change in BII has been estimated across such a large region.

Grand challenges in biodiversity-ecosystem functioning research in the era of science-policy platforms require explicit consideration of feedbacks.

Feedbacks are an essential feature of resilient socio-economic systems, yet the feedbacks between biodiversity, ecosystem services and human wellbeing are not fully accounted for in global policy efforts that consider future scenarios for human activities and their consequences for nature. Failure to integrate feedbacks in our knowledge frameworks exacerbates uncertainty in future projections and potentially prevents us from realizing the full benefits of actions we can take to enhance sustainability. We identify six scientific research challenges that, if addressed, could allow future policy, conservation and monitoring efforts to quantitatively account for ecosystem and societal consequences of biodiversity change. Placing feedbacks prominently in our frameworks would lead to (i) coordinated observation of biodiversity change, ecosystem functions and human actions, (ii) joint experiment and observation programmes, (iii) more effective use of emerging technologies in biodiversity science and policy, and (iv) a more inclusive and integrated global community of biodiversity observers. To meet these challenges, we outline a five-point action plan for collaboration and connection among scientists and policymakers that emphasizes diversity, inclusion and open access. Efforts to protect biodiversity require the best possible scientific understanding of human activities, biodiversity trends, ecosystem functions and-critically-the feedbacks among them.

Global effects of land-use intensity on local pollinator biodiversity.

Pollinating species are in decline globally, with land use an important driver. However, most of the evidence on which these claims are made is patchy, based on studies with low taxonomic and geographic representativeness. Here, we model the effect of land-use type and intensity on global pollinator biodiversity, using a local-scale database covering 303 studies, 12,170 sites, and 4502 pollinating species. Relative to a primary vegetation baseline, we show that low levels of intensity can have beneficial effects on pollinator biodiversity. Within most anthropogenic land-use types however, increasing intensity is associated with significant reductions, particularly in urban (43% richness and 62% abundance reduction compared to the least intensive urban sites), and pasture (75% abundance reduction) areas. We further show that on cropland, the strongly negative response to intensity is restricted to tropical areas, and that the direction and magnitude of response differs among taxonomic groups. Our findings confirm widespread effects of land-use intensity on pollinators, most significantly in the tropics, where land use is predicted to change rapidly.

Towards an ecosystem model of infectious disease.

Increasingly intimate associations between human society and the natural environment are driving the emergence of novel pathogens, with devastating consequences for humans and animals alike. Prior to emergence, these pathogens exist within complex ecological systems that are characterized by trophic interactions between parasites, their hosts and the environment. Predicting how disturbance to these ecological systems places people and animals at risk from emerging pathogens-and the best ways to manage this-remains a significant challenge. Predictive systems ecology models are powerful tools for the reconstruction of ecosystem function but have yet to be considered for modelling infectious disease. Part of this stems from a mistaken tendency to forget about the role that pathogens play in structuring the abundance and interactions of the free-living species favoured by systems ecologists. Here, we explore how developing and applying these more complete systems ecology models at a landscape scale would greatly enhance our understanding of the reciprocal interactions between parasites, pathogens and the environment, placing zoonoses in an ecological context, while identifying key variables and simplifying assumptions that underly pathogen host switching and animal-to-human spillover risk. As well as transforming our understanding of disease ecology, this would also allow us to better direct resources in preparation for future pandemics.