Comparison of prediction models for cardiovascular and mortality risk in people with type 2 diabetes: An external validation in 23 685 adults included in the UK Biobank.

AIMS: To validate cardiovascular risk prediction models for individuals with diabetes using the UK Biobank in order to assess their applicability. METHODS: We externally validated 19 cardiovascular risk scores from seven risk prediction models (Chang et al., Framingham, University of Hong Kong-Singapore [HKU-SG], Li et al, RECODe [risk equations for complications of type 2 diabetes], SCORE [Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation] and the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model 2 [UKPDS OM2]), identified from systematic reviews, using UK Biobank data from 2006 to 2021 (n = 23 685; participant age 40-71 years, 63.5% male). We evaluated performance by assessing the discrimination and calibration of the models for the endpoints of mortality, cardiovascular mortality, congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction, stroke, and ischaemic heart disease. RESULTS: Over a total of 269 430 person-years of follow-up (median 11.89 years), the models showed low-to-moderate discrimination performance on external validation (concordance indices [c-indices] 0.50-0.71). Most models had low calibration with overprediction of the observed risk. RECODe outperformed other models across four comparable endpoints for discrimination: all-cause mortality (c-index 0.67, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.65-0.69), congestive heart failure (c-index 0.71, 95% CI 0.69-0.72), myocardial infarction (c-index 0.67, 95% CI 0.65-0.68); and stroke (c-index 0.65, 95% CI 0.62-0.68), and for calibration (except for all-cause mortality). The UKPDS OM2 had comparable performance to RECODe for all-cause mortality (c-index 0.67, 95% CI 0.66-0.69) and cardiovascular mortality (c-index 0.71, 95% CI 0.70-0.73), but worse performance for other outcomes. The models performed better for younger participants and somewhat better for non-White ethnicities. Models developed from non-Western datasets showed worse performance in our UK-based validation set. CONCLUSIONS: The RECODe model led to better risk estimations in this predominantly White European population. Further validation is needed in non-Western populations to assess generalizability to other populations.

ALDH2 polymorphism, alcohol intake and the attributable burden of cancer in East Asia: systematic review, meta-analysis, and modeling study.

PURPOSE: To estimate the burden of alcohol-attributable cancer in East Asian populations accounting for aldehyde dehydrogenase-2 (ALDH2) genotype-specific cancer risk and alcohol exposure. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of eight databases on cancer risk to derive alcohol dose-response curves by ALDH2 genotype. A simulation-based approach using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) modeling framework was applied to estimate the population attributable fraction, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost to alcohol-attributable cancer. RESULTS: We included 34 studies (66,655 participants) from China, Japan, and South Korea in the meta-analysis. Alcohol dose-response curves for liver, esophageal, and oral cavity/pharynx cancer showed an increased risk for people with the inactivated ALDH2 genetic polymorphism, resulting in a higher burden of alcohol-attributable cancer compared to GBD estimates. Our methods estimated annual incidence of cancer of 230,177 cases, an underestimate of 69,596 cases compared to GBD estimates. Similarly, total DALYs lost annually were underestimated by 1.20 million. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of liver, esophageal, and oral cavity/pharynx cancer attributable to alcohol is underestimated in populations with the ALDH2 genetic polymorphism when compared to current estimates.

Potential health and economic impact associated with achieving risk factor control in Chinese adults with diabetes: a microsimulation modelling study.

Background: The prevalence of diabetes has risen sharply in China. Improving modifiable risk factors such as glycaemia and blood pressure could substantially reduce disease burden and treatment costs to achieve a healthier China by 2030. Methods: We used a nationally representative population-based survey of adults with diabetes in 31 provinces in mainland China to assess the prevalence of risk factor control. We adopted a microsimulation approach to estimate the impact of improved control of blood pressure and glycaemia on mortality, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and healthcare cost. We applied the validated CHIME diabetes outcomes model over a 10-year time horizon. Baseline scenario of status quo was evaluated against alternative strategies based on World Health Organization and Chinese Diabetes Society guidelines. Findings: Among 24,319 survey participants with diabetes (age 30-70), 69.1% (95% CI: 67.7-70.5) achieved optimal diabetes control (HbA1c <7% [53 mmol/mol]), 27.7% [26.1-29.3] achieved blood pressure control (<130/80 mmHg) and 20.1% (18.6-21.6) achieved both targets. Achieving 70% control rate for people with diabetes could reduce deaths before age 70 by 7.1% (5.7-8.7), reduce medical costs by 14.9% (12.3-18.0), and gain 50.4 QALYs (44.8-56.0) per 1000 people over 10 years compared to the baseline status quo. The largest health gains were for strategies including strict blood pressure control of 130/80 mmHg, particularly in rural areas. Interpretation: Based on a nationally representative survey, few adults with diabetes in China achieved optimal control of glycaemia and blood pressure. Substantial health gains and economic savings are potentially achievable with better risk factor control especially in rural settings. Funding: Chinese Central Government, Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China [27112518].

Impact of alcohol taxes on violence in Hong Kong: a population-based interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Interpersonal violence is a major public health concern with alcohol use a known risk factor. Despite alcohol taxation being an effective policy to reduce consumption; Hong Kong, contrary to most developed economies, embarked on an alcohol tax reduction and elimination policy. METHODS: To assess the impact of the alcohol tax reductions, we analysed population-based hospitalisation data for assault from the Hong Kong Hospital Authority, and violent and sexual crimes recorded by the Hong Kong Police Force (2004-2018). We conducted an interrupted time series using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models on monthly rates. Breakpoints in March 2007 and March 2008 were applied separately. RESULTS: The 2007 tax cut was associated with sustained increases in violence-related hospitalisation rates for 35-49 age group (female: 0.19%, p=0.007; male: 0.22%, p<0.001; overall: 0.16%, p=0.007); and an immediate increase of 51.3% (p=0.005) in the rate of sexual crimes reported. Results for the 35-49 age group after the 2008 tax cut were similar with sustained increases in hospitalisation rates (female: 0.21%, p=0.010; male: 0.23%, p<0.001; overall: 0.17%, p<0.001). The 2008 tax cut was also associated with immediate increases in hospitalisation rates in children (female: 33.1%, p=0.011; male: 49.2%, p<0.001, overall: 31.5%, p=0.007). For both tax cuts, results were insignificant in males and females for other age groups (15-34 and 50+ years). CONCLUSIONS: Both alcohol tax reductions in 2007 and 2008 were in some age groups associated with increases in violence-related hospitalisations and reports of sexual assault even in an environment of low crime.

COVID-19 Vaccine Allergy Safety Track (VAS-Track) pathway: real-world outcomes on vaccination rates and antibody protection.

BACKGROUND: Misdiagnosed vaccine-related "allergies" lead to unnecessary vaccine deferrals and incomplete vaccinations, leaving patients unprotected against COVID-19. To overcome limitations and queues for Allergist assessment, the "VAS-Track" pathway was developed to evaluate patients via a multi-disciplinary triage model including nurses, non-specialists, and Allergists. OBJECTIVE: We assessed the effectiveness and safety of VAS-Track and evaluate its real-world impact in terms of vaccination rates and COVID-19 protection. METHODS: Patients referred to VAS-Track between September 2021 and March 2022 were recruited. Subgroup analysis was performed with prospective pre- and post-clinic antibody levels. RESULTS: Nurse-assisted screening identified 10,412 (76%) referrals as inappropriate. 369 patients were assessed by VAS-Track. Overall, 100% of patients were recommended to complete vaccination and 332 (90%) completed their primary series. No patients reported any significant allergic reactions following subsequent vaccination. Vaccination completion rates between patients seen by non-specialists and additional Allergist review were similar (90% vs. 89%, p = 0.617). Vaccination rates were higher among patients with prior history of immediate-type reactions (odds ratio: 2.43, p = 0.025). Subgroup analysis revealed that only 20% (56/284) of patients had seropositive COVID-19 neutralizing antibody levels (≥ 15 AU/mL) prior to VAS-Track, which increased to 92% after vaccine completion (pre-clinic antibody level 6.0 ± 13.5 AU/mL vs. post-clinic antibody level 778.8 ± 337.4 AU/mL, p > 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: A multi-disciplinary allergy team was able to streamline our COVID-19 VAS services, enabling almost all patients to complete their primary series, significantly boosting antibody levels and real-world COVID-19 protection. We propose similar multidisciplinary models to be further utilized, especially in the settings with limited allergy services.

Long-term spill-over impact of COVID-19 on health and healthcare of people with non-communicable diseases: a study protocol for a population-based cohort and health economic study.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has a significant spill-over effect on people with non-communicable diseases (NCDs) over the long term, beyond the direct effect of COVID-19 infection. Evaluating changes in health outcomes, health service use and costs can provide evidence to optimise care for people with NCDs during and after the pandemic, and to better prepare outbreak responses in the future. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a population-based cohort study using electronic health records of the Hong Kong Hospital Authority (HA) CMS, economic modelling and serial cross-sectional surveys on health service use. This study includes people aged ≥18 years who have a documented diagnosis of diabetes mellitus, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease or chronic kidney disease with at least one attendance at the HA hospital or clinic between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2019, and without COVID-19 infection. Changes in all-cause mortality, disease-specific outcomes, and health services use rates and costs will be assessed between pre-COVID-19 and-post-COVID-19 pandemic or during each wave using an interrupted time series analysis. The long-term health economic impact of healthcare disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic will be studied using microsimulation modelling. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression and Poisson/negative binomial regression will be used to evaluate the effect of different modes of supplementary care on health outcomes. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was approved by the institutional review board of the University of Hong Kong, the HA Hong Kong West Cluster (reference number UW 21-297). The study findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and international conferences.

The impact of alcohol pricing policies on public health in Hong Kong, China: A modelling study.

Background: Contrary to most developed economies, Hong Kong has reduced and eliminated taxes on beer and wine over the last 15 years and observed increasing alcohol consumption. Methods: We applied econometric epidemiological modelling to assess the impact of reverting ad valorem taxation to pre-2008 levels (20% on wine and 40% on beer) on consumption and health outcomes. We used 15 years of industry sales and pricing data (2004-2018) to derive 25 own-price and cross-price elasticity estimates. We applied risk functions from the World Health Organization 2018 Global Status Report to assess the impact on 25 alcohol-attributable conditions. Findings: An estimated 616 deaths (91.3% in men) were attributable to alcohol in 2018. Raising taxes to pre-2008 levels is estimated to reduce consumption of pure alcohol consumption by 8.0%, 15.9%, and 31.1%; and reduce alcohol-attributable deaths by 11.6%, 21.8%, and 40.2% assuming 25%, 50% and 100% pass through rates of taxes to consumers. The largest projected decreases in alcohol-attributable mortality in absolute numbers are alcohol abuse, alcohol dependence, and alcoholic psychoses (wholly alcohol-attributable disorders). The largest absolute number of new alcohol-attributable cases in 2018 were hypertension, alcohol dependence and alcohol abuse; which are estimated to be reduced by 31.3%, 34.2%, and 34.3% respectively by raising taxes to pre-2008 levels. The alcohol-attributable health burden and absolute reductions in health harms are far greater in men. Interpretation: Reversing the 2008 alcohol tax reductions is potentially effective in averting the alcohol-attributable health burden and thus mitigate against the avoidable harms of alcohol-related disease. Funding: Health and Medical Research Fund, Food and Health Bureau of the Hong Kong SAR, China [03170067].

The impact of road safety policies in a deregulated alcohol tax environment in Hong Kong: a 15-year time series analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Hong Kong reduced beer and wine tax in 2007, eliminated taxes on beer and wine and strengthened drink-driving legislation in 2008, and increased police traffic enforcement after the 2014 social unrest. This study aimed to measure the effects of implementing road safety policies on road traffic harm in the context of deregulated alcohol control policy in Hong Kong. DESIGN: Population-based interrupted time series analysis using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (sARIMA) models. Multiple sensitivity analyses were conducted. SETTING: Hong Kong, China and Singapore from January 2004 to December 2019. CASES: A total of 313 728 road traffic injuries in Hong Kong and 163 773 road traffic injuries in Singapore as controls. MEASUREMENTS: Monthly rates of road traffic injuries, non-fatal injuries and serious/fatal injuries from Hong Kong and Singapore Police Force. FINDINGS: The elimination of alcohol taxes and the enactment of road safety legislation in 2008 were associated with immediate reductions in total road traffic injuries of 6.71% (95% CI, 1.99%-11.20%), serious/fatal injuries of 13.80% (95% CI, 1.85%-24.30%) and sustained declines in drink-driving and collisions involving drink-driving. The effects of the 2007 tax reduction were inconclusive. Progressively increasing traffic enforcement was associated with continuous reductions in road traffic injuries by 0.21% per month (95% CI, 0.13%-0.30%), and serious/fatal injuries by 1.10% per month (95% CI, 0.85%-1.35%). Effects at the corresponding timepoints in Singapore did not reach statistical significance; the results were inconclusive regarding confounding effects on both regions. CONCLUSIONS: Despite weakened alcohol control and increased alcohol sales over the same period, road safety policies in Hong Kong are associated with net reductions in road traffic injuries, particularly serious/fatal injuries.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Chronic Disease Care in India, China, Hong Kong, Korea, and Vietnam.

This study aims to provide evidence on how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted chronic disease care in diverse settings across Asia. Cross-sectional surveys were conducted to assess the health, social, and economic consequences of the pandemic in India, China, Hong Kong, Korea, and Vietnam using standardized questionnaires. Overall, 5672 participants with chronic conditions were recruited from five countries. The mean age of the participants ranged from 55.9 to 69.3 years. A worsened economic status during the COVID-19 pandemic was reported by 19% to 59% of the study participants. Increased difficulty in accessing care was reported by 8% to 24% of participants, except Vietnam: 1.6%. The worsening of diabetes symptoms was reported by 5.6% to 14.6% of participants, except Vietnam: 3%. In multivariable regression analyses, increasing age, female participants, and worsened economic status were suggestive of increased difficulty in access to care, but these associations mostly did not reach statistical significance. In India and China, rural residence, worsened economic status and self-reported hypertension were statistically significantly associated with increased difficulty in access to care or worsening of diabetes symptoms. These findings suggest that the pandemic disproportionately affected marginalized and rural populations in Asia, negatively affecting population health beyond those directly suffering from COVID-19.

Safety surveillance of meningococcal group B vaccine (Bexsero®), Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, 2015-2018.

BACKGROUND: Bexsero® (GlaxoSmithKline) is a four-component Neisseria meningitidis serogroup B vaccine (MenB-4C). It was licensed in the United States in 2015 for use among individuals ages 10-25 years. We aimed to assess the post-licensure safety profile of MenB-4C by examining reports received in the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS). METHODS: VAERS is a national passive surveillance system for adverse events (AEs) following immunization that uses the Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities to code reported AEs and the Code of Federal Regulations to classify reports by seriousness. In this case series, we analyzed U.S. reports involving MenB-4C received between January 23, 2015 through December 31, 2018. We used Empirical Bayesian data mining to identify MenB-4C/AE combinations reported at least twice as often as expected. RESULTS: VAERS received 1,867 reports following MenB-4C administration, representing 332 reports per million doses distributed. Most reports were for females (59%), with a median age of 17 years (interquartile range: 16-18 years); 40% of reports described simultaneous administration of other vaccines. The majority of reports were classified as non-serious (96%). The most commonly reported AEs were injection site pain (22%), pyrexia (16%), and headache (16%). Data mining identified disproportionate reporting for "injected limb mobility decreased" secondary to injection site reactions, including extensive swelling of the vaccinated limb and injection site pain. CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of passive surveillance data from over 5.6 million doses of MenB-4C distributed in the United States did not reveal new safety concerns. The large majority of reports were classified as non-serious and the reported AEs were generally consistent with the safety experience described in clinical studies and the product's package insert. While our results are reassuring, continued post-marketing surveillance is warranted.

Health State Utility Values for Type 2 Diabetes and Related Complications in East and Southeast Asia: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: East and Southeast Asia has the greatest burden of diabetes in the world. We sought to derive a reference set of utility values for type 2 diabetes without complication and disutility (utility decrement) values for important diabetes-related complications to better inform economic evaluation. METHODS: A systematic review to identify utility values for diabetes and related complications reported in East and Southeast Asia. We searched MEDLINE (OVID) from inception to May 26, 2020 for utility values elicited using direct and indirect methods. Identified studies were assessed for quality based on the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence guidelines. Utility and disutility estimates were pooled by meta-analyses with subgroup analyses to evaluate differences by nationality and valuation instrument. (PROSPERO: CRD42020191075). RESULTS: We identified 17 studies for the systematic review from a total of 13 035 studies in the initial search, of which 13 studies met the quality criteria for inclusion in the meta-analyses. The pooled utility value for diabetes without complication was 0.88 (95% CI 0.83-0.93), with the pooled utility decrement for associated complications ranged from 0.00 (for excess BMI) to 0.18 (for amputation). The utility values were consistently more conservative than previous estimates derived in Western populations. Utility decrements were comparable for SF-6D and EQ-5D valuation instruments and for Chinese and other Asian groups. CONCLUSIONS: A reference set of pooled disutility and utility values for type 2 diabetes and its complications in East and Southeast Asian populations yielded more conservative estimates than Western populations.

Development and validation of the CHIME simulation model to assess lifetime health outcomes of prediabetes and type 2 diabetes in Chinese populations: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Existing predictive outcomes models for type 2 diabetes developed and validated in historical European populations may not be applicable for East Asian populations due to differences in the epidemiology and complications. Despite the continuum of risk across the spectrum of risk factor values, existing models are typically limited to diabetes alone and ignore the progression from prediabetes to diabetes. The objective of this study is to develop and externally validate a patient-level simulation model for prediabetes and type 2 diabetes in the East Asian population for predicting lifetime health outcomes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a health outcomes model from a population-based cohort of individuals with prediabetes or type 2 diabetes: Hong Kong Clinical Management System (CMS, 97,628 participants) from 2006 to 2017. The Chinese Hong Kong Integrated Modeling and Evaluation (CHIME) simulation model comprises of 13 risk equations to predict mortality, micro- and macrovascular complications, and development of diabetes. Risk equations were derived using parametric proportional hazard models. External validation of the CHIME model was assessed in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS, 4,567 participants) from 2011 to 2018 for mortality, ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, renal failure, cataract, and development of diabetes; and against 80 observed endpoints from 9 published trials using 100,000 simulated individuals per trial. The CHIME model was compared to United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model 2 (UKPDS-OM2) and Risk Equations for Complications Of type 2 Diabetes (RECODe) by assessing model discrimination (C-statistics), calibration slope/intercept, root mean square percentage error (RMSPE), and R2. CHIME risk equations had C-statistics for discrimination from 0.636 to 0.813 internally and 0.702 to 0.770 externally for diabetes participants. Calibration slopes between deciles of expected and observed risk in CMS ranged from 0.680 to 1.333 for mortality, myocardial infarction, ischemic heart disease, retinopathy, neuropathy, ulcer of the skin, cataract, renal failure, and heart failure; 0.591 for peripheral vascular disease; 1.599 for cerebrovascular disease; and 2.247 for amputation; and in CHARLS outcomes from 0.709 to 1.035. CHIME had better discrimination and calibration than UKPDS-OM2 in CMS (C-statistics 0.548 to 0.772, slopes 0.130 to 3.846) and CHARLS (C-statistics 0.514 to 0.750, slopes -0.589 to 11.411); and small improvements in discrimination and better calibration than RECODe in CMS (C-statistics 0.615 to 0.793, slopes 0.138 to 1.514). Predictive error was smaller for CHIME in CMS (RSMPE 3.53% versus 10.82% for UKPDS-OM2 and 11.16% for RECODe) and CHARLS (RSMPE 4.49% versus 14.80% for UKPDS-OM2). Calibration performance of CHIME was generally better for trials with Asian participants (RMSPE 0.48% to 3.66%) than for non-Asian trials (RMPSE 0.81% to 8.50%). Main limitations include the limited number of outcomes recorded in the CHARLS cohort, and the generalizability of simulated cohorts derived from trial participants. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that the CHIME model is a new validated tool for predicting progression of diabetes and its outcomes, particularly among Chinese and East Asian populations that has been lacking thus far. The CHIME model can be used by health service planners and policy makers to develop population-level strategies, for example, setting HbA1c and lipid targets, to optimize health outcomes.

Adverse events following quadrivalent meningococcal diphtheria toxoid conjugate vaccine (Menactra®) reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), 2005-2016.

BACKGROUND: Post marketing safety evaluations of quadrivalent meningococcal diphtheria-toxoid conjugate vaccine (MenACWY-D) have focused on post-vaccination risk of Guillain Barré syndrome (GBS), adverse events (AEs) after maternal vaccination, and comparative studies with the newer quadrivalent meningococcal CRM197 conjugate vaccine (MenACWY-CRM). To provide an updated general safety assessment, we reviewed reports of AEs following MenACWY-D submitted to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS). METHODS: VAERS is a national spontaneous reporting vaccine safety surveillance system co-administered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. We searched the VAERS database for U.S. reports of AEs after administration of MenACWY-D from January 2005 through June 2016. We conducted clinical reviews of serious reports after MenACWY-D administered alone, reports of MenACWY-D use during pregnancy, and reports of selected pre-specified outcomes. We screened for disproportionate reporting of AEs after MenACWY-D using empirical Bayesian data mining. RESULTS: VAERS received 13,075 U.S. reports after receipt of MenACWY-D; most (86%) described vaccination in adolescents, were classified as non-serious (94%), and described AEs consistent with pre-licensure studies. We did not find any evidence that reported deaths were related to vaccination. In serious reports, GBS and meningococcal infection were the most commonly reported medical conditions. Many reports of MenACWY-D use during pregnancy described inadvertent vaccination; most (61%) did not report any AE. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from our comprehensive review of reports to VAERS following MenACWY-D are consistent with data from pre-licensure studies and provide further reassurance on the safety of MenACWY-D.

Erythema multiforme, Stevens Johnson syndrome, and toxic epidermal necrolysis reported after vaccination, 1999-2017.

BACKGROUND: Since the last review of vaccine safety surveillance data for erythema multiforme (EM), Stevens Johnson syndrome (SJS), SJS/TEN, and toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN) (EM/SJS/TEN), over 37 new vaccines have been introduced in the United States. We sought to describe reported EM/SJS/TEN after vaccines during 1999-2017. METHODS: We identified U.S. reports of EM/SJS/TEN received by the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) during 1999-2017. We stratified analysis by condition (EM, SJS, or TEN), and analyzed reports by serious or non-serious status, sex, age group, time from vaccination to symptom onset, exposure to known causes of EM/SJS/TEN, and vaccines administered. We used Empirical Bayesian data mining to detect vaccine-AE pairs reported more frequently than expected. RESULTS: Of 466,027 reports to VAERS during 1999-2017, we identified 984 reports of EM, 89 reports of SJS, 6 reports of SJS/TEN, and 7 reports of TEN. Few reports of EM (9%), and most reports of SJS (52%), SJS/TEN (100%), and TEN (100%) were serious. Overall, 55% of reports described males, 48% described children aged < 4 years; 58% of EM/SJS/TEN occurred ≤ 7 days after vaccination. Few reports (≤5%) described exposure to known causes of EM/SJS/TEN. Overall, childhood vaccines (e.g., combined measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine) were most commonly reported. We identified 6 deaths; 4 were exposed to medications associated with EM/SJS/TEN. EM after smallpox vaccine was reported disproportionately among people aged 19-49 years. CONCLUSIONS: EM/SJS/TEN were rarely reported after vaccination; data mining identified a known association between EM and smallpox vaccine.

Reports of atypical shoulder pain and dysfunction following inactivated influenza vaccine, Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), 2010-2017.

BACKGROUND: Vaccines administered into or too close to underlying joint structures have the potential to cause shoulder injuries. Limited data exist on the epidemiology of such events. OBJECTIVE: To describe case reports of atypical shoulder pain and dysfunction following injection of inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV). METHODS: We searched the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) database from July 2010 to June 2017 for reports of atypical shoulder pain and dysfunction following IIV. When identifying reports, we made no assumptions about true incident injury or causality with respect to vaccination. Pain had to begin <48 h after vaccination and signs and symptoms had to continue for >7 days to differentiate from self-limited local reactions. We conducted descriptive analysis. RESULTS: We identified 1220 reports that met our case definition (2.0% of all IIV reports, range 1.5%-2.5% across influenza seasons). Median age was 52 years (range 16-94) and most patients (82.6%) were female. Shoulder pain (44.1%), injected limb mobility decreased (40.8%), joint range of motion decreased (21.2%), rotator cuff syndrome (9.2%), and bursitis (9.0%) were frequently reported. In 86.6% of reports, signs and symptoms had not resolved by the time of report submission. In reports that included descriptions suggesting contributing factors (n = 266), vaccination given "too high" on the arm was cited in 81.2%. Nearly half (n = 605, 49.6%) of reports described a healthcare provider evaluation. Treatments included non-narcotic analgesics, physical therapy, and corticosteroid injection. Vaccinations were most commonly administered in a pharmacy or retail store (41.0%) or doctor's office or hospital (31.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Reports of atypical shoulder pain and dysfunction following IIV were uncommon, considering the amount of IIV use, and stable across influenza seasons. While specific etiology of cases is unknown, improperly administered vaccine, which is preventable, might be a factor. Prevention strategies include education, training, and adherence to best practices for vaccine administration.

Postlicensure Safety Surveillance of Recombinant Zoster Vaccine (Shingrix) - United States, October 2017-June 2018.

Recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV; Shingrix), an adjuvanted glycoprotein vaccine, was licensed by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and recommended by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices for adults aged ≥50 years in October 2017 (1). The previously licensed live-attenuated zoster vaccine (ZVL; Zostavax) is recommended for adults aged ≥60 years. RZV is administered intramuscularly as a 2-dose series, with an interval of 2-6 months between doses. In prelicensure clinical trials, 85% of 6,773 vaccinated study participants reported local or systemic reactions after receiving RZV, with approximately 17% experiencing a grade 3 reaction (erythema or induration >3.5 inches or systemic symptoms that interfere with normal activity). However, rates of serious adverse events (i.e., hospitalization, prolongation of existing hospitalization, life-threatening illness, permanent disability, congenital anomaly or birth defect, or death) were similar in the RZV and placebo groups (2). After licensure, CDC and FDA began safety monitoring of RZV in the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) (3). During the first 8 months of use, when approximately 3.2 million RZV doses were distributed (GlaxoSmithKline, personal communication, 2018), VAERS received a total of 4,381 reports of adverse events, 130 (3.0%) of which were classified as serious. Commonly reported signs and symptoms included pyrexia (fever) (1,034; 23.6%), injection site pain (985; 22.5%), and injection site erythema (880; 20.1%). No unexpected patterns were detected in reports of adverse events or serious adverse events. Findings from early monitoring of RZV are consistent with the safety profile observed in prelicensure clinical trials.

Anaphylaxis after vaccination reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, 1990-2016.

BACKGROUND: Anaphylaxis, a rare and potentially life-threatening hypersensitivity reaction, can occur after vaccination. OBJECTIVE: We sought to describe reports of anaphylaxis after vaccination made to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) during 1990-2016. METHODS: We identified domestic reports of anaphylaxis within VAERS using a combination of Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activity queries and Preferred Terms. We performed a descriptive analysis, including history of hypersensitivity (anaphylaxis, respiratory allergies, and drug allergies) and vaccines given. We reviewed all serious reports and all nonserious reports with available medical records to determine if they met the Brighton Collaboration case definition for anaphylaxis or received a physician's diagnosis. RESULTS: During the analytic period, VAERS received 467,960 total reports; 828 met the Brighton Collaboration case definition or received a physician's diagnosis of anaphylaxis: 654 (79%) were classified as serious, and 669 (81%) had medical records available. Of 478 reports in children aged less than 19 years, 65% were male; childhood vaccines were most commonly reported. Of 350 reports in persons aged 19 years or greater, 80% were female, and influenza vaccines were most frequently reported. Overall, 41% of reports described persons with no history of hypersensitivity. We identified 8 deaths, 4 among persons with no history of hypersensitivity. CONCLUSION: Anaphylaxis after vaccination is rare in the United States and can occur among persons with no history of hypersensitivity. Most persons recover fully with treatment, but serious complications, including death, can occur.

Adverse events following quadrivalent meningococcal CRM-conjugate vaccine (Menveo®) reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting system (VAERS), 2010-2015.

BACKGROUND: Limited data are available describing the post-licensure safety of meningococcal vaccines, including Menveo®. We reviewed reports of adverse events (AEs) to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) to assess safety in all age groups. METHODS: VAERS is a national spontaneous vaccine safety surveillance system co-administered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US Food and Drug Administration. We searched the VAERS database for US reports of adverse events in persons who received Menveo from 1 January 2010 through 31 December 2015. We clinically reviewed reports and available medical records for serious AEs, selected pre-specified outcomes, and vaccination during pregnancy. We used empirical Bayesian data mining to identify AEs that were disproportionately reported after receipt of Menveo. RESULTS: During the study period, VAERS received 2614 US reports after receipt of Menveo. Of these, 67 were classified as serious, including 1 report of death. Adolescents (aged 11-18years) accounted for 74% of reports. Most of the reported AEs were non-serious and described AEs consistent with data from pre-licensure studies. Anaphylaxis and syncope were the two most common events in the serious reports. We did not identify any new safety concerns after review of AEs that exceeded the data mining threshold, although we did observe disproportionate reporting for terms that were not associated with an adverse event (e.g., "incorrect drug dosage form administered", "wrong technique in drug usage process"). Although reports were limited, we did not find any evidence for concern regarding the use of Menveo during pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: In our review of VAERS reports, findings of AEs were consistent with the data from pre-licensure studies. Vaccine providers should continue to emphasize and adhere to proper administration of the vaccine.