Estimating morbidity due to stroke in Nigeria: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The response to stroke in Nigeria is impaired by inadequate epidemiologic information. We sought to collate available evidence and estimate the incidence of stroke and prevalence of stroke survivors in Nigeria. METHODS: Using random effects meta-analysis, we pooled nationwide and regional incidence and prevalence of stroke from the estimates reported in each study. RESULTS: Eleven studies met our selection criteria. The pooled crude incidence of stroke in Nigeria was 26.0 (12.8-39.0) /100,000 person-years, with this higher among men at 34.1 (9.7-58.4) /100,000, compared to women at 21.2 (7.4-35.0) /100,000. The pooled crude prevalence of stroke survivors in Nigeria was 6.7 (5.8-7.7) /1000 population, with this also higher among men at 6.4 (5.1-7.6) /1000, compared to women at 4.4 (3.4-5.5) /1000. In the period 2000-2009, the incidence of stroke in Nigeria was 24.3 (95% CI: 11.9-36.8) per 100,000, with this increasing to 27.4 (95% CI: 2.2-52.7) per 100,000 from 2010 upwards. The prevalence of stroke survivors increased minimally from 6.0 (95% CI: 4.6-7.5) per 1000 to 7.5 (95% CI: 5.8-9.1) per 1000 over the same period. The prevalence of stroke survivors was highest in the South-south region at 13.4 (9.1-17.8) /100,000 and among rural dwellers at 10.8 (7.5-14.1) /100,000. CONCLUSION: Although study period does not appear to contribute substantially to variations in stroke morbidity in Nigeria, an increasing number of new cases compared to survivors may be due in part to limited door-door surveys, or possibly reflects an increasing mortality from stroke in the country.

Association between HIV-1 subtype and drug resistance in Nigerian infants.

Background: Many lines of evidence point to HIV-1 subtype-specific differences in the development of drug resistance mutations. While variation between subtype C and others has been extensively explored, there has been less emphasis on subtypes common to West Africa. We examined a previously described national survey of pretreatment drug resistance in HIV-1-infected Nigerian children aged <18 months, to explore the association between subtypes and patterns of resistance. Methods: Five hundred and forty-nine dried blood spots, from 15 early infant diagnostic facilities in Nigeria, were amplified and HIV-1 polymerase was sequenced. Four hundred and twenty-four were analysed for surveillance drug resistance mutations (SDRMs). Associations between subtype and SDRMs were evaluated by Fisher's exact test and logistic regression analysis, controlling for geographical region and exposure. Results: Using the sub-subtypes of HIV-1 G defined by Delatorre et al. (PLoS One 2014. 9: e98908) the most common subtypes were CRF02_AG (174, 41.0%), GWA-I (128, 30.2%), GWA-II (24, 5.7%), GCA (11, 2.6%), A (21, 5.0%) and CRF06_cpx (18, 4.2%). One hundred and ninety infants (44.8%) had ≥1 NNRTI mutation, 92 infants (21.7%) had ≥1 NRTI mutation and 6 infants (1.4%) had ≥1 PI mutation. By logistic regression, 67N was more common in GWA-II/GCA than CRF02_AG (OR 12.0, P = 0.006), as was 70R (OR 23.1, P = 0.007), 184I/V (OR 2.92, P = 0.020), the presence of ≥1 thymidine analogue mutation (TAM) (OR 3.87, P = 0.014), ≥1 type 2 TAM (OR 7.61, P = 0.001) and ≥1 NRTI mutation (OR 3.26, P = 0.005). Conclusions: This dataset reveals differences among SDRMs by subtype; in particular, between the GWA-II and GCA subclades, compared with CRF02_AG and GWA-I.

Author Correction: Substantiating freedom from parasitic infection by combining transmission model predictions with disease surveys.

The original version of this Article contained an error in the spelling of Emily Griswold, which was incorrectly given as Emily Grisworld. This error has now been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article.

Substantiating freedom from parasitic infection by combining transmission model predictions with disease surveys.

Stopping interventions is a critical decision for parasite elimination programmes. Quantifying the probability that elimination has occurred due to interventions can be facilitated by combining infection status information from parasitological surveys with extinction thresholds predicted by parasite transmission models. Here we demonstrate how the integrated use of these two pieces of information derived from infection monitoring data can be used to develop an analytic framework for guiding the making of defensible decisions to stop interventions. We present a computational tool to perform these probability calculations and demonstrate its practical utility for supporting intervention cessation decisions by applying the framework to infection data from programmes aiming to eliminate onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis in Uganda and Nigeria, respectively. We highlight a possible method for validating the results in the field, and discuss further refinements and extensions required to deploy this predictive tool for guiding decision making by programme managers.

Clinic-based evaluation study of the diagnostic accuracy of a dual rapid test for the screening of HIV and syphilis in pregnant women in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Screening pregnant women for HIV and syphilis is recommended by WHO in order to reduce mother-to-child transmission. We evaluated the field performance, feasibility, and acceptability of a dual rapid diagnostic test (RDT) for HIV and syphilis test in antenatal clinic settings in Nigeria. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Participants were recruited at 12 antenatal clinic sites in three states of Nigeria. All consenting individuals were tested according to the national HIV testing algorithm, as well as a dual RDT, the SD BIOLINE HIV/Syphilis Duo Test (Alere, USA), in the clinic. To determine sensitivity, specificity and concordance, whole blood samples were obtained for repeat RDT performance in the laboratory, as well as reference tests for HIV and syphilis. Dual test acceptability and operational characteristics were assessed among participants and clinic staff. The prevalence of HIV among the 4,551 enrollees was 3.0% (138/4551) using the national clinic-based HIV testing algorithm. Positive and negative percent agreement of the HIV component of the dual RDT were 100.0% (95% CI 99.7-100.0) and 99.9% (95% CI 99.7-100.0) respectively, when compared with the national rapid testing algorithm. The prevalence of syphilis, using TPHA as the reference test, was low at 0.09% (4/4550). The sensitivity of the syphilis component of the dual RDT could not be calculated as no positive results were observed for patients that were positive for syphilis by TPHA. Each of the only four TPHA-positive specimens had RPR titers of 1:1 (neat), indicative of non-active syphilis. The specificity of the syphilis component of the dual RDT was 99.9% (95% CI 99.8-100.0). The dual RDT received favorable feasibility ratings among antenatal care clinic staff. Acceptability among study participants was high with most women reporting preference for rapid dual HIV/syphilis testing. CONCLUSIONS: The SD BIOLINE HIV/Syphilis Duo Test showed a high overall diagnostic accuracy for HIV and a high specificity for syphilis diagnosis in antenatal clinic settings. This study adds to a growing body of evidence that supports the clinic-based use of dual tests for HIV and syphilis among pregnant women.

Correction: Outcomes of Nigeria's HIV/AIDS Treatment Program for Patients Initiated on Antiretroviral Treatment between 2004-2012.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0165528.].

How can we better serve adolescent key populations? Strategies to encourage and inform future data collection, analysis, and use.

Young key populations (ages 10-24) (YKPs) are uniquely vulnerable to HIV infection. Yet they are often underserved, due in part to a limited understanding of their needs. Many successful approaches to understanding YKPs exist but are not widely used. To identify the most useful approaches and encourage their uptake, we reviewed strategic information on YKPs and experiences collecting, analysing, and utilising it from countries in Africa, Asia, and Central and Eastern Europe. As a result, we recommend one central guiding principle - any effort to understand and serve YKPs should include a specific focus on adolescent key populations (AKPs) (ages 10-19) - and three strategies to inform data collection, analysis, and use: tailor recruitment practices to ensure young people's representation, select indicators and research methods based on their ability to inform responsive programming for and give a voice to YKPs, and thoroughly disaggregate data. We demonstrate the utility of each strategy in YKP research and programmes, and in doing so note the particular importance for AKPs. We hope that this paper encourages additional research on YKPs and helps bridge the gap between research and effective programmes to serve the youngest and most vulnerable members of key populations.

Outcomes of Nigeria's HIV/AIDS Treatment Program for Patients Initiated on Antiretroviral Treatment between 2004-2012.

BACKGROUND: The Nigerian Antiretroviral therapy (ART) program started in 2004 and now ranks among the largest in Africa. However, nationally representative data on outcomes have not been reported. METHODS: We evaluated retrospective cohort data from a nationally representative sample of adults aged ≥15 years who initiated ART during 2004 to 2012. Data were abstracted from 3,496 patient records at 35 sites selected using probability-proportional-to-size (PPS) sampling. Analyses were weighted and controlled for the complex survey design. The main outcome measures were mortality, loss to follow-up (LTFU), and retention (the proportion alive and on ART). Potential predictors of attrition were assessed using competing risk regression models. RESULTS: At ART initiation, 66.4 percent (%) were females, median age was 33 years, median weight 56 kg, median CD4 count 161 cells/mm3, and 47.1% had stage III/IV disease. The percentage of patients retained at 12, 24, 36 and 48 months was 81.2%, 74.4%, 67.2%, and 61.7%, respectively. Over 10,088 person-years of ART, mortality, LTFU, and overall attrition (mortality, LTFU, and treatment stop) rates were 1.1 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.7-1.8), 12.3 (95%CI: 8.9-17.0), and 13.9 (95% CI: 10.4-18.5) per 100 person-years (py) respectively. Highest attrition rates of 55.4/100py were witnessed in the first 3 months on ART. Predictors of LTFU included: lower-than-secondary level education (reference: Tertiary), care in North-East and South-South regions (reference: North-Central), presence of moderate/severe anemia, symptomatic functional status, and baseline weight <45kg. Predictor of mortality was WHO stage higher than stage I. Male sex, severe anemia, and care in a small clinic were associated with both mortality and LTFU. CONCLUSION: Moderate/Advanced HIV disease was predictive of attrition; earlier ART initiation could improve program outcomes. Retention interventions targeting men and those with lower levels of education are needed. Further research to understand geographic and clinic size variations with outcome is warranted.

Controlling malaria in pregnancy: how far from the Abuja targets?

Background: The Roll Back Malaria (RBM) initiative recommended that all pregnant women receive Inter mittent Preventive Treatment (IPTp) and that by 2010 at least 80% of people at risk of malaria (including pregnant women) use insecticide-treated bednets (ITN) in areas with stable transmission. We evaluated ITN/IPTp coverage, explored its associated factors, and estimated the number of pregnancies protected from malaria. Materials and methods: This analysis was based on data from the 2012 National HIV/AIDS and Reproductive Health Survey (NARHS Plus). To assess ITN coverage, we used the population of women that was pregnant (n=22,438) at the time of the survey. For IPTp coverage, we used women that had a live birth in the 5 years preceding the survey (n= 118,187) and extracted the population of pregnant women that, during their last pregnancy, received drugs for protection against malaria. We estimated the number of live births using the projected population of females in each state, population of women of child -bearing age and the total fertility rate. The estimated number of pregnancies covered/protected by ITN and IPTp was obtained from a product of the estimated live births and the reported coverage. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with ITN and IPTp use. Results: We estimated that there were 5,798,897 live births in Nigeria in 2012, of which 3,537,327 and 2,302,162 pregnancies were protected by ITN and IPTp, respectively. Four of 36 states achieved the 80% RBM target for ITN coverage. No state achieved the 100% target for IPTp. Education and socio-economic status were associated with IPTp use. Conclusion: ITN cover age was higher than in previous estimates even though it is still below the RBM targets. However, IPTp coverage remained low in 2012 and was not likely to increase to match the 2015 target coverage of 100%.

Laboratory evaluation of three dual rapid diagnostic tests for HIV and syphilis in China and Nigeria.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the laboratory-based performance and operational characteristics of three dual rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for testing HIV and syphilis. METHODS: Three dual RDTs (SD Bioline, Chembio, and MedMira) were evaluated using 1514 serum specimens archived at laboratories or collected from clinics in China and Nigeria to determine sensitivity and specificity, with 95% confidence intervals. Concordance of testing results read by two technicians, stability of testing results read at two time points, and test operation characteristics were also assessed. RESULTS: All three of the evaluated RDTs gave excellent performance with a combined sensitivity ranging from 99.0%-99.6% for HIV and 98.3%-99.0% for syphilis, and a combined specificity ranging from 97.9%-99.0% for HIV and 97.2%-99.6% for syphilis. Concordance of testing results between two technicians and stability of testing results read within and one hour past the recommended reading period showed excellent agreement, with Kappa greater than or equal to 0.98. CONCLUSIONS: All the tests were found to be very or fairly easy to use and easy to interpret the results. Further evaluations of these dual RDTs with whole blood in field settings, and more studies on the implication of introduction of these tests in HIV and syphilis control programs are needed.

Estimating disease burden of maternal syphilis and associated adverse pregnancy outcomes in India, Nigeria, and Zambia in 2012.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate maternal syphilis and its associated adverse pregnancy outcomes in India, Nigeria, and Zambia. METHODS: An online estimation tool was used to generate point estimates and uncertainty ranges of maternal syphilis and adverse pregnancy outcomes due to mother-to-child transmission (MTCT). The most recent data (2010-2012) on antenatal care coverage, syphilis seroprevalence, and syphilis screening and treatment coverage at the subnational level in India, Nigeria, and Zambia were used to estimate disease burden for 2012. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for three screening and treatment scenarios (current coverages, current coverages minus 20%, and ideal coverages consistent with WHO targets for eliminating MTCT of syphilis). RESULTS: A total of 103 960, 74 798, and 9072 pregnant women with probable active syphilis were estimated to occur in India, Nigeria, and Zambia, resulting in 53 187, 37 045, and 2973 adverse outcomes, respectively; approximately 1.6%, 4.8%, and 37.0% of these were averted under the current service coverages in India, Nigeria, and Zambia. The disease burden varied significantly in its subnational distribution within India and Nigeria, but was distributed evenly across Zambia. CONCLUSIONS: The obtained results suggest an ongoing, unaverted high burden of maternal syphilis and associated adverse outcomes in India, Nigeria, and Zambia. Screening and treatment for syphilis must be scaled-up significantly in these countries to achieve elimination of MTCT of syphilis.

The Nigeria wealth distribution and health seeking behaviour: evidence from the 2012 national HIV/AIDS and reproductive health survey.

BACKGROUND: Recently, Nigeria emerged as the largest economy in Africa and the 26th in the world. However, a pertinent question is how this new economic status has impacted on the wealth and health of her citizens. There is a dearth of empirical study on the wealth distribution in Nigeria which could be important in explaining the general disparities in their health seeking behavior. An adequate knowledge of Nigeria wealth distribution will no doubt inform policy makers in their decision making to improve the quality of life of Nigerians. METHOD: This study is a retrospective analysis of the assets of household in Nigeria collected during the 2012 National HIV/AIDS and Reproductive Health Survey (NARHS Plus 2). We used the principal component analysis methods to construct wealth quintiles across households in Nigeria. At 5% significance level, we used ANOVA to determine differences in some health outcomes across the WQs and chi-square test to assess association between WQs and some reproductive health seeking behaviours. RESULT: The wealth quintiles were found to be internally valid and coherent. However, there is a wide gap in the reproductive health seeking behavior of household members across the wealth quintiles with members of households in lower quintiles having lesser likelihood (33.0%) to receive antenatal care than among those in the highest quintiles (91.9%). While only 3% were currently using modern contraceptives in the lowest wealth quintile, it was 17.4% among the highest wealth quintile (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: The wealth quintiles showed a great disparity in the standard of living of Nigerian households across geo-political zones, states and rural-urban locations which had greatly influenced household health seeking behavior.

Development and implementation challenges of a quality assured HIV infant diagnosis program in Nigeria using dried blood spots and DNA polymerase chain reaction.

Nigeria has one of the highest HIV burdens as well as mother-to-infant transmission rates in the world. A pilot program using polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based testing of dried blood spot (DBS) specimens was implemented to enable early identification of HIV-infected infants and timely referral and linkage to care. From February 2007 to October 2008, whole blood was collected by finger prick to prepare DBS from infants <18 months presenting in six public mother-and-child health facilities in Lagos, Nigeria. The DBS were tested using the Roche Amplicor HIV-1 DNA Test, v1.5. To monitor laboratory testing quality, all of the PCR-positive and 10% of the PCR-negative DBS were retested by the same method at another reference laboratory. Three hundred and sixty-five randomly selected infants were screened using HIV rapid tests (RT) according to the national algorithm and RT-negative and PCR-positive specimens were also tested using Genscreen enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (EIA) (Bio-Rad, France). The turnaround time (TAT) from sample collection, testing, and dispatching of results from each health facility was monitored. A total of 1,273 infants with a median age of 12.6 weeks (1 day to 71.6 weeks) participated in the program and 280 (22.0%) were PCR positive. HIV transmission levels varied greatly in the different health facilities ranging from 7.1% to 38.4%. Infants aged 48 to 72 weeks had the highest level of PCR positivity (41.1%). All PCR-positive specimens were confirmed by retesting. The mean turnaround time from DBS collection to returning of the laboratory result to the health facilities was 25 days. Three infants were found to be HIV antibody negative by rapid tests but were positive by both PCR and the fourth generation EIA. The DBS-based PCR program accurately identified all of the HIV-infected infants. However, many programmatic challenges related to the laboratory and TAT were identified.

A description of HIV prevalence trends in Nigeria from 2001 to 2010: what is the progress, where is the problem?

INTRODUCTION: Nigeria's population of 160 million and estimated HIV prevalence of 3.34% (2011) makes Nigeria the second highest HIV burden worldwide, with 3.2 million people living with HIV (PLHIV). In 2010, US government spent about US$456.5 million on the Nigerian epidemic. Antenatal clinic (ANC) HIV sero-prevalence sentinel survey has been conducted biennially in Nigeria since 1991 to track the epidemic. This study looked at the trends of HIV in Nigeria over the last decade to identify progress and needs. METHODS: We conducted description of HIV sero-prevalence sentinel cross-sectional surveys conducted among pregnant women attending ANC from 2001 to 2010, which uses consecutive sampling and unlinked-anonymous HIV testing (UAT) in 160 sentinel facilities. 36,000 blood samples were collected and tested. We used Epi-Info to determine national and state HIV prevalence and trends. The Estimation and Projection Package with Spectrum were used to estimate/project the burden of infection. RESULTS: National ANC HIV prevalence rose from 1.8% (1991) to 5.8% (2001) and dropped to 4.1% (2010). Since 2001, states in the center, and south of Nigeria had higher prevalence than the rest, with Benue and Cross Rivers notable. Benue was highest in 2001 (14%), 2005 (10%), and 2010 (12.7%). Overall, eight states (21.6%) showed increased HIV prevalence while six states (16.2%) had an absolute reduction of at least 2% from 2001 to 2010. In 2010, Nigeria was estimated to have 3.19 million PLHIV, with the general population prevalence projected to drop from 3.34% in 2011 to 3.27% in 2012. CONCLUSION: Examining a decade of HIV ANC surveillance in Nigeria revealed important differences in the epidemic in states that need to be examined further to reveal key drivers that can be used to target future interventions.