Cancer Prevalence Projections in Japan and Decomposition Analysis of Changes in Cancer Burden, 2020-2050: A Statistical Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: We provide comprehensive sex-stratified projections of cancer prevalence for 22 cancer sites in Japan from 2020 to 2050. METHODS: Using a scenario-based approach, we projected cancer prevalence by combining projected incidence cases and survival probabilities. Age-specific incidences were forecasted using age-period-cohort models, while survival rates were estimated using a period-analysis approach and multiple parametric survival models. To understand changes in cancer prevalence, decomposition analysis was conducted, assessing the contributions of incidence, survival, and population demographics. RESULTS: By 2050, cancer prevalence in Japan is projected to reach 3,665,900 (3,210,200 to 4,201,400) thousand cases, representing a 13.1% increase from 2020. This rise is primarily due to a significant increase in female survivors (+27.6%) compared with a modest increase in males (+0.8%), resulting in females overtaking males in prevalence counts from 2040 onward. In 2050, the projected most prevalent cancer sites in Japan include colorectal, female breast, prostate, lung, and stomach cancers, accounting for 66.4% of all survivors. Among males, the highest absolute increases in prevalence are projected for prostate, lung, and malignant lymphoma cancers, while among females, the highest absolute increases are expected for female breast, colorectal, and corpus uteri cancers. CONCLUSIONS: These findings emphasize the evolving cancer prevalence, influenced by aging populations, changes in cancer incidence rates, and improved survival. Effective prevention, detection, and treatment strategies are crucial to address the growing cancer burden. IMPACT: This study contributes to comprehensive cancer control strategies and ensures sufficient support for cancer survivors in Japan.

Long-Term Projections of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Japan and Decomposition Analysis of Changes in Cancer Burden, 2020-2054: An Empirical Validation Approach.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to project new cancer cases/deaths forward to 2054, and decompose changes in cancer cases/deaths to assess the impact of demographic transitions on cancer burden. METHODS: We collected data on cancer cases/deaths up to 2019, empirically validated the projection performance of multiple statistical models, and selected optimal models by applying time series cross-validation. RESULTS: We showed an increasing number of new cancer cases but decreasing number of cancer deaths in both genders, with a large burden attributed to population aging. We observed the increasing incidence rates in most cancer sites but reducing rates in some infection-associated cancers, including stomach and liver cancers. Colorectal and lung cancers were projected to remain as leading cancer burdens of both incidence and mortality in Japan over 2020-2054, while prostate and female breast cancers would be the leading incidence burdens among men and women, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from decomposition analysis require more supportive interventions for reducing mortality and improving the quality of life of Japanese elders. We emphasize the important role of governments and policymakers in reforming policies for controlling cancer risk factors, including oncogenic infections. The rapid increase and continued presence of those cancer burdens associated with modifiable risk factors warrant greater efforts in cancer control programs, specifically in enhancing cancer screening and controlling cancer risk factors in Japan.

Factors influencing implementation of health-promoting interventions at workplaces: Protocol for a scoping review.

INTRODUCTION: Health-promoting interventions at workplaces can be effective in modifying lifestyle-related behavioral risk factors for non-communicable diseases (NCDs). However, the interventions are not always successful in the real-world setting, and the evidence for effective strategies to implement the interventions has been limited. We propose a scoping review to identify the topics in need of study and areas for future research on barriers to and facilitators of the implementation of workplace health-promoting interventions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This scoping review will explore these issues from the perspective of supply-side stakeholders, who have a direct role in the implementation of these interventions. An electronic systematic search of MEDLINE (using PubMed), Web of Science, and Scopus databases from 1986 to 2022, in accordance with the PRISMA-ScR guidelines, will be performed. Supplementary hand searching will be undertaken with reference lists from included articles and consulting with relevant stakeholders. Two authors will be responsible for individually screening the corresponding articles by first reading the titles and abstracts and then the full texts to assess whether they meet the inclusion criteria. Data extraction will be conducted using standardized data collection forms, and data analysis will be aligned to the consolidated framework for implementation research (CFIR), a determinant framework of factors affecting implementation, using a directed content analysis approach. DISCUSSION: We will present the findings from this review at national and international conferences and submit them to a peer-reviewed journal for publication. Future workplace interventions will significantly benefit from this comprehensive scoping review to identify factors that enable improvement of the implementation, and the barriers to improvement, of evidence-based health-promoting interventions at workplaces.

Trends in, projections of, and inequalities in non-communicable disease management indicators in Vietnam 2010-2030 and progress toward universal health coverage: A Bayesian analysis at national and sub-national levels.

Background: Movement towards Universal Health Coverage (UHC) can improve health services, risk factor management, and inequality in non-communicable diseases (NCD); conversely, prioritizing and monitoring NCD management can support pathways to UHC in resource-limited settings. We aimed to estimate trends in NCD management indicators in Vietnam from 2010, and projections to 2030 at national and sub-national levels; compute the probability of reaching UHC targets; and measure inequalities in NCD management indicators at demographic, geographic, and socio-economic levels. Methods: We included data of 37,595 households from four nationally representative surveys from 2010. We selected and estimated the coverage of NCD health service and risk management indicators nationally and by six sub-national groups. Using Bayesian models, we provided trends and projections and calculated the probability of reaching UHC targets of 80% coverage by 2030. We estimated multiple inequality indices including the relative index of inequality, slope index of inequality, and concentration index of inequality, and provided an assessment of improvement in inequalities over the study period. Findings: Nationally, all indicators showed a low probability of achieving 2030 targets except sufficient use of fruit and vegetables (SUFV) and non-use of tobacco (NUT). We observed declining trends in national coverage of non-harmful use of alcohol (NHUA), sufficient physical activity (SPA), non-overweight (NOW), and treatment of diabetes (TOD). Except for SPA, no indicator showed the likelihood of achieving 2030 targets at any regional level. Our model suggested a non-achievement of 2030 targets for all indicators in any wealth quintile and educational level, except for SUFV and NUT. There were diversities in tendency and magnitude of inequalities with widening gaps between genders (SPA, TOD), ethnic groups (SUFV), urban-rural areas (TOH), wealth quintiles, and educational levels (TOD, NUT, NHUA). Interpretation: Our study suggested slow progress in NCD management at the national level and among key sub-populations in Vietnam, together with existing and increasing inequalities between genders, ethnicities, geographic areas, and socioeconomic groups. We emphasised the necessity of continuously improving the healthcare system and facilities, distributing resources between geographic areas, and simultaneously integrating economic, education, and gender intervention and programs. Funding: None.

The relationship between team dynamics with healthcare coordination and clinical work satisfaction among Commune Health Workers: A Bayesian model averaging study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the relationship between team dynamics with healthcare coordination and clinical job satisfaction of the community health workers (CHWs). METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 133 health workers (including doctors, nurses, or midwives) at 21 Commune Health Cent in Quoc Oai District, Vietnam, from July 2015 to May 2017. A self-administered questionnaire consisting of 5-Likert items regarding team dynamics and healthcare coordination clinical work satisfaction was utilised. Descriptive statistics and correlation matrix were applied for seven factors of team dynamic, clinical work satisfaction, and patient care coordination queried by primary care providers. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) was used to identify the predictors of the level of team dynamics and healthcare coordination. RESULTS: The mean score of overall team dynamics among the study participants was 4.08. Clinical work satisfaction and patient care coordination scores among resident physicians were higher than those of attending clinicians; however, the differences were not statistically significant. The results of BMA analysis indicated that team dynamics significantly associated with clinical work satisfaction, and it explains 9% of the total variance in clinical work satisfaction. Team dynamics level was also positively associated with patient care coordination. Patient care coordination was not a significant mediator between team dynamics and clinical work satisfaction. CONCLUSION: Team dynamics is a potential contributor to improving patient care coordination and clinical job satisfaction of CHWs. As no significant correlation between patient care coordination and clinical job satisfaction was observed, to improve team performance, providing conditions that facilitate team building and teamwork should be conducted for CHWs in CHCs.

Translation, validation and psychometric properties of Effort-Reward Imbalance questionnaire among nurses in Vietnam.

We translated the Effort-Reward imbalance questionnaire, an instrument for measuring work stress, into the Vietnamese language and investigated its psychometric properties among nurses in Vietnam. In a hospital-based cross-sectional study design, we sampled and interviewed 207 nurses working full-time (response rate 83%). We evaluated the internal consistency using standardized Cronbach's alpha coefficients and structural validity using confirmatory factor analysis. Discriminative validity was assessed by comparing the measured scores between age groups, gender, education levels, income groups, and job positions. In addition, we confirmed the criterion validity by investigating its association with self-reported health using simple and multiple logistic regression models. Most of the participants were female (73.3%), young (average 28.5 years old), and had education levels of college or higher (53.5%). We observed sufficient internal consistency in effort, reward, and over-commitment scales (Cronbach's alpha 0.80, 0.76, and 0.68, respectively). Confirmatory factor analysis of the three-factor hierarchical model showed an acceptable fit and fair construct validity with most moderate or stronger (>0.3) factor loading coefficients. Poor self-rated health was more likely in respondents in both Effort-Reward ratio's middle tertile (adjusted Odd-Ratio = 2.80, p-value = 0.031) and highest tertile (adjusted Odd-Ratio = 2.64, p-value = 0.05), adjusting for age, gender, and education levels. The Effort-reward imbalance scale has adequate reliability and validity for assessing work stress among nurses in Vietnam. Its significant association with poor self-rated health warrants further investigation. The validated instrument can help measure the effort-reward imbalance to manage better work-related emotional strains and mental health issues among nurses and ensure human resources' stability in healthcare in Vietnam.

Trends in lung cancer incidence by gender, histological type and stage at diagnosis in Japan, 1993 to 2015: A multiple imputation approach.

Continued decrease in smoking prevalence and increasing use of sensitive diagnostic procedures necessitate updated monitoring of trends in lung cancer incidence in Japan. We analyzed histology- and stage-specific trends in 1993 to 2015 using data from 62 870 diagnosed cases from the Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan project. After applying a multiple imputation approach to impute missing/unknown values of stage and histology, we estimated age-standardized incidence rates and applied joinpoint regression analyses. We observed long-term growth trends in adenocarcinoma (ADC) and localized cancer among both genders, long-term declining trends among men and leveling-off trends among women in small-cell carcinoma (SMC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SQC). Stratifying by gender, we observed an increase in localized ADC with average annual percentage changes (AAPC) of 4.5 (95% confidence interval: 3.9 to 5.0) and 5.7 (5.0 to 6.4), a decrease in regional ADC with AAPC of -1.5 (-2.5 to -0.6) and -2.3 (-4.6 to 0.0), but an increase in distant ADC with AAPC of 1.5 (1.1 to 1.9) and 1.6 (0.9 to 2.3) among males and females, respectively. Additionally, increasing trends in female-to-male incidence rate ratios were observed in localized ADC with significantly above one in the most recent diagnosis period. Our results revealed evidence for a partial shift from advanced to early cancer stage, which may suggest the modest effectiveness of nationwide organized screening programs. The observed increasing localized and distant ADC may be linked to improved diagnostic procedures, especially for metastasis detection. Further investigation is needed for more accurate quantification of these factors.

Factors associated with high-risk behaviors of people newly diagnosed with HIV/AIDS: results from a cross-sectional study in Vietnam.

Towards the elimination of this global epidemic, understanding the high-risk behaviors of people newly diagnosed with HIV/AIDS (PNDWH) is essential. This study aimed to describe the general characteristics and high-risk behaviors of PNDWH and identify associated factors for adopting high-risk behaviors. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Vietnam to explore the high-risk behaviors of 506 PNDWH. Associated factors were identified using multivariable logistic regressions. 83.2% of participants had sex without using a condom, and 27.9% had more than two sex partners. Among injected drug users, 44% had shared needles with an average number of 2.1 shared partners. Male, Kinh ethnicity (Vietnamese), high income, and high educational level were risk factors for high-risk behaviors. Our findings revealed the first time a comprehensive picture of PNDWH and emphasized the high prevalence of STIs, including untreated STIs and the long delay since the early HIV diagnosis. Also, our model found much higher risk behaviors among participants who were non-adherent to ART and those currently enrolled in ART. By better managing newly-diagnosed cases, better integrating STI management services and prevention consultants, as well as improving ART adherence programs, Vietnam can make better progress towards the complete control of HIV for its most vulnerable populations.

An adaptive model of health system organization and responses helped Vietnam to successfully halt the Covid-19 pandemic: What lessons can be learned from a resource-constrained country.

Coping with the COVID-19 pandemic has been painful and no single model for such a purpose is perfect. However, sharing experiences is the best way for countries to learn real-time lessons and adapt to this rapidly changing pandemic. This commentary shares with the international community how an adaptive model of health system organization and responses helped Vietnam to break transmission of coronavirus. We find that an effective model is adaptive to time and context, and mobilizes and engages the wider society. We identify merging of different health system units into Center for Diseases Controls as a health system organization that saved massive resources. The early establishment of a formal committee responding to the pandemic helped unify every public health strategy. The mobilization of different stakeholders and communities added resources and facilitated a synchronous implementation of response strategies, even where those strategies involved significant personal or financial sacrifice. National training on Covid-19 treatment for healthcare professionals across the entire hospital system was useful to expand the health service availability. Quickly published response guidelines helped to activate every level of the health system and involve every sector of society. A strategy of keeping high alert and preemptive action is also essential for coping with the pandemic.