Prognostic Value of Cardiovascular Biomarkers in the Population.

Importance: Identification of individuals at high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease within the population is important to inform primary prevention strategies. Objective: To evaluate the prognostic value of routinely available cardiovascular biomarkers when added to established risk factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: Individual-level analysis including data on cardiovascular biomarkers from 28 general population-based cohorts from 12 countries and 4 continents with assessments by participant age. The median follow-up was 11.8 years. Exposure: Measurement of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, B-type natriuretic peptide, or high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, which included all fatal and nonfatal events. The secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality, heart failure, ischemic stroke, and myocardial infarction. Subdistribution hazard ratios (HRs) for the association of biomarkers and outcomes were calculated after adjustment for established risk factors. The additional predictive value of the biomarkers was assessed using the C statistic and reclassification analyses. Results: The analyses included 164 054 individuals (median age, 53.1 years [IQR, 42.7-62.9 years] and 52.4% were women). There were 17 211 incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events. All biomarkers were significantly associated with incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (subdistribution HR per 1-SD change, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.11-1.16] for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I; 1.18 [95% CI, 1.12-1.23] for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T; 1.21 [95% CI, 1.18-1.24] for N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; 1.14 [95% CI, 1.08-1.22] for B-type natriuretic peptide; and 1.14 [95% CI, 1.12-1.16] for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) and all secondary outcomes. The addition of each single biomarker to a model that included established risk factors improved the C statistic. For 10-year incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in younger people (aged <65 years), the combination of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein resulted in a C statistic improvement from 0.812 (95% CI, 0.8021-0.8208) to 0.8194 (95% CI, 0.8089-0.8277). The combination of these biomarkers also improved reclassification compared with the conventional model. Improvements in risk prediction were most pronounced for the secondary outcomes of heart failure and all-cause mortality. The incremental value of biomarkers was greater in people aged 65 years or older vs younger people. Conclusions and Relevance: Cardiovascular biomarkers were strongly associated with fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events and mortality. The addition of biomarkers to established risk factors led to only a small improvement in risk prediction metrics for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, but was more favorable for heart failure and mortality.

Hemodynamic Bedside Monitoring Instrument with Pressure and Optical Sensors: Validation and Modality Comparison.

Results from two independent clinical validation studies for measuring hemodynamics at the patient's bedside using a compact finger probe are reported. Technology comprises a barometric pressure sensor, and in one implementation, additionally, an optical sensor for photoplethysmography (PPG) is developed, which can be used to measure blood pressure and analyze rhythm, including the continuous detection of atrial fibrillation. The capabilities of the technology are shown in several form factors, including a miniaturized version resembling a common pulse oximeter to which the technology could be integrated in. Several main results are presented: i) the miniature finger probe meets the accuracy requirements of non-invasive blood pressure instrument validation standard, ii) atrial fibrillation can be detected during the blood pressure measurement and in a continuous recording, iii) a unique comparison between optical and pressure sensing mechanisms is provided, which shows that the origin of both modalities can be explained using a pressure-volume model and that recordings are close to identical between the sensors. The benefits and limitations of both modalities in hemodynamic monitoring are further discussed.

Thrombosis Risk in Double Heterozygous Carriers of Factor V Leiden and Prothrombin G20210A in FinnGen and the UK Biobank.

The Factor V Leiden (FVL, rs6025) and prothrombin G20210A (PTGM, rs1799963) polymorphisms are two of the most well-studied genetic risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE). However, double heterozygosity (DH) for FVL and PTGM remains poorly understood, with prior studies in marked disagreement about the thrombosis risk conferred by the DH genotype. Utilizing multi-dimensional data from the UK Biobank (UKB) and the FinnGen biorepositories, we evaluated the clinical impact of DH carrier status across 937,939 individuals. We found that 662 participants (0.07%) were DH carriers. After adjustment for age, sex, and ancestry, DH individuals experienced a markedly elevated risk of VTE compared to wild-type individuals (OR=5.24, 95% CI: 4.01 - 6.84; P=4.8 x 10-34), which approximated the risk conferred by FVL homozygosity. A secondary analysis restricted to UKB participants (N=445,144) found that effect size estimates for the DH genotype remained largely unchanged (OR=4.53, 95% CI: 3.42 - 5.90; P<1 x 10-16) after adjustment for commonly cited VTE risk factors such as body mass index, blood type, and markers of inflammation. By contrast, the DH genotype was not associated with a significantly higher risk of any arterial thrombosis phenotype, including stroke, myocardial infarction, and peripheral artery disease. In summary, we leveraged population-scale genomic datasets to conduct the largest study to date of the DH genotype and were able to establish far more precise effect size estimates than previously possible. Our findings indicate that the DH genotype may occur as frequently as FVL homozygosity and confers a similarly increased risk of VTE.

Shotgun metagenomic analysis of the oral microbiome in gingivitis: a nested case-control study.

Background: Gingivitis, i.e. inflammation of the gums, is often induced by dentalplaque. However, its exact link to the oral microbiota remains unclear. Methods: In a case-control study involving 120 participants, comprising 60 cases and 60 controls (mean age (SD) 36.6 (7.6) years; 50% males), nested within a prospective multicentre cohort study, we examined theoral microbiome composition of gingivitis patients and their controlsusing shotgun metagenomic sequencing of saliva samples. Participants underwent clinical and radiographic oral health examinations, including bleeding on probing (BOP), at six tooth sites. BOP ≥33%was considered 'generalized gingivitis/initial periodontitis'(GG/IP), and BOP <33% as 'healthy and localized gingivitis'(H/LG). Functional potential was inferred using HUMANn3. Results: GG/IP exhibited an increase in the abundance of Actinomyces, Porphyromonas, Aggregatibacter, Corynebacterium, Olsenella, and Treponema, whereas H/LG exhibited an increased abundance of Candidatus Nanosynbacter. Nineteen bacterial species and fourmicrobial functional profiles, including L-methionine, glycogen, andinosine-5'-phosphate biosynthesis, were associated with GG/IP. Constructing models with multiple markers resulted in a strong predictive value for GG/IP, with an area under the curve (ROC) of 0.907 (95% CI: 0.848-0.966). Conclusion: We observed distinct differences in the oral microbiome between the GG/IP and H/LG groups, indicating similar yet unique microbial profiles and emphasizing their potential role in progression of periodontal diseases.

Associations between arterial health and sexual function in women aged 60-64 years.

INTRODUCTION: Female sexual dysfunction is very common, but its determinants remain under-investigated. Vasculogenic impairments are suggested to be related to female sexual dysfunction, but previous literature regarding the association is scarce. This study aims to study the association between arterial health and female sexual function in women in their 60s. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The sample for this cross-sectional study comprised 117 women (aged 60-64 years) who participated in the Finnish Retirement and Aging study. Arterial health was measured according to the participants' pulse wave velocity, ankle-brachial index, blood pressure, and pulse pressure. Sexual function was measured using the Female Sexual Function Index, which resulted in a total score and six sub-scores. Associations were examined using multivariable regression analyses, which were adjusted for age, relationship happiness, systemic menopausal hormone therapy and/or local estrogen, smoking, alcohol risk use, body mass index, and depressive symptoms. RESULTS: Higher diastolic blood pressure was associated with a higher total Female Sexual Function Index score (ß = 0.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.07-0.41) and with higher desire (ß = 0.02, 95% CI 0.01-0.04), arousal (ß = 0.04, 95% CI 0.01-0.08), lubrication (ß = 0.04, 95% CI 0.002-0.08), satisfaction (ß = 0.03, 95% CI 0.003-0.05), and pain (ß = 0.06, 95% CI 0.02-0.10) sub-scores. Also, higher ankle-brachial index was associated with higher satisfaction sub-score (ß = 2.10, 95% CI 0.44-3.73) and lower pulse pressure was associated with higher orgasm sub-score (ß = 0.03, 95% CI 0.0002-0.06). Other associations between ankle-brachial index and Female Sexual Function Index scores were statistically insignificant, but considering the magnitude the findings may imply clinical significance. Systolic blood pressure and pulse wave velocity were not associated with sexual function. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggested a plausible association between higher diastolic blood pressure and female sexual function, but considering clinical significance our findings suggest an association between higher ankle-brachial index and good sexual function in women in their 60s.

Integration of polygenic and gut metagenomic risk prediction for common diseases.

Multiomics has shown promise in noninvasive risk profiling and early detection of various common diseases. In the present study, in a prospective population-based cohort with ~18 years of e-health record follow-up, we investigated the incremental and combined value of genomic and gut metagenomic risk assessment compared with conventional risk factors for predicting incident coronary artery disease (CAD), type 2 diabetes (T2D), Alzheimer disease and prostate cancer. We found that polygenic risk scores (PRSs) improved prediction over conventional risk factors for all diseases. Gut microbiome scores improved predictive capacity over baseline age for CAD, T2D and prostate cancer. Integrated risk models of PRSs, gut microbiome scores and conventional risk factors achieved the highest predictive performance for all diseases studied compared with models based on conventional risk factors alone. The present study demonstrates that integrated PRSs and gut metagenomic risk models improve the predictive value over conventional risk factors for common chronic diseases.

Mortality and Cardiovascular End Points In Relation to the Aortic Pulse Wave Components: An Individual-Participant Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Wave separation analysis enables individualized evaluation of the aortic pulse wave components. Previous studies focused on the pressure height with overall positive but differing results. In the present analysis, we assessed the associations of the pressure of forward and backward (Pfor and Pref) pulse waves with prospective cardiovascular end points, with extended analysis for time to pressure peak (Tfor and Tref). METHODS: Participants in 3 IDCARS (International Database of Central Arterial Properties for Risk Stratification) cohorts (Argentina, Belgium, and Finland) aged ≥20 years with valid pulse wave analysis and follow-up data were included. Pulse wave analysis was done using the SphygmoCor device, and pulse wave separation was done using the triangular method. The primary end points consisted of cardiovascular mortality and nonfatal cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios. RESULTS: A total of 2206 participants (mean age, 57.0 years; 55.0% women) were analyzed. Mean±SDs for Pfor, Pref, Tfor, and Tfor/Tref were 31.0±9.1 mm Hg, 20.8±8.4 mm Hg, 130.8±35.5, and 0.51±0.11, respectively. Over a median follow-up of 4.4 years, 146 (6.6%) participants experienced a primary end point. Every 1 SD increment in Pfor, Tfor, and Tfor/Tref was associated with 27% (95% CI, 1.07-1.49), 25% (95% CI, 1.07-1.45), and 32% (95% CI, 1.12-1.56) higher risk, respectively. Adding Tfor and Tfor/Tref to existing risk models improved model prediction (∆Uno's C, 0.020; P<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Pulse wave components were predictive of composite cardiovascular end points, with Tfor/Tref showing significant improvement in risk prediction. Pending further confirmation, the ratio of time to forward and backward pressure peak may be useful to evaluate increased afterload and signify increased cardiovascular risk.

Pulmonary primary oxysterol and bile acid synthesis as a predictor of outcomes in pulmonary arterial hypertension.

Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a rare and fatal vascular disease with heterogeneous clinical manifestations. To date, molecular determinants underlying the development of PAH and related outcomes remain poorly understood. Herein, we identify pulmonary primary oxysterol and bile acid synthesis (PPOBAS) as a previously unrecognized pathway central to PAH pathophysiology. Mass spectrometry analysis of 2,756 individuals across five independent studies revealed 51 distinct circulating metabolites that predicted PAH-related mortality and were enriched within the PPOBAS pathway. Across independent single-center PAH studies, PPOBAS pathway metabolites were also associated with multiple cardiopulmonary measures of PAH-specific pathophysiology. Furthermore, PPOBAS metabolites were found to be increased in human and rodent PAH lung tissue and specifically produced by pulmonary endothelial cells, consistent with pulmonary origin. Finally, a poly-metabolite risk score comprising 13 PPOBAS molecules was found to not only predict PAH-related mortality but also outperform current clinical risk scores. This work identifies PPOBAS as specifically altered within PAH and establishes needed prognostic biomarkers for guiding therapy in PAH.

Sex-specific genetic risks for adverse outcomes after coronary revascularization procedures.

Men and women have differing risks of adverse events after revascularization procedures and these differences could be partially driven by genetics. We studied the sex-specific differences in associations of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) with atrial fibrillation (AF), ischaemic stroke (STR), intracranial haemorrhage (ICH), myocardial infarction (MI) and gastrointestinal haemorrhage (GIH) in coronary revascularization patients. The study cohort comprised 5561 and 17 578 revascularized women and men. All participants underwent genotyping and register-based follow-up from 1961 to 2021. We calculated PRSs for all individuals and used Cox models with interaction term to examine the sex-specific associations between the PRSs and adverse outcomes after revascularization. The AF-PRS was more strongly associated with AF in men [hazard ratio (HR) per 1 standard deviation increase, 1.16; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.12-1.19; P = 7.6 × 10-22) than in women (P for interaction 0.006). Conversely, ICH-PRS was more strongly associated with ICH after revascularization in women (HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.08-1.62; P = 0.008) than in men (P for interaction 0.008). We observed no sex-specific differences for the associations of PRSs with STR, MI or GIH. The genetic risk of AF after revascularization is greater in men than in women, and vice versa for ICH. Sex-specific PRSs could be used to identify individuals in high genetic risk for these complications.

Regional and temporal differences in the associations between cardiovascular disease and its classic risk factors: an analysis of 49 cohorts from 11 European countries.

AIMS: The regional and temporal differences in the associations between cardiovascular disease (CVD) and its classic risk factors are unknown. The current study examined these associations in different European regions over a 30-year period. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study sample comprised 553 818 individuals from 49 cohorts in 11 European countries (baseline: 1982-2012) who were followed up for a maximum of 10 years. Risk factors [sex, smoking, diabetes, non-HDL cholesterol, systolic blood pressure (BP), and body mass index (BMI)] and CVD events (coronary heart disease or stroke) were harmonized across cohorts. Risk factor-outcome associations were analysed using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models, and differences in associations were assessed using meta-regression. The differences in the risk factor-CVD associations between central Europe, northern Europe, southern Europe, and the UK were generally small. Men had a slightly higher hazard ratio (HR) in southern Europe (P = 0.043 for overall difference), and those with diabetes had a slightly lower HR in central Europe (P = 0.022 for overall difference) compared with the other regions. Of the six CVD risk factors, minor HR decreases per decade were observed for non-HDL cholesterol [7% per mmol/L; 95% confidence interval (CI), 3-10%] and systolic BP (4% per 20 mmHg; 95% CI, 1-8%), while a minor HR increase per decade was observed for BMI (7% per 10 kg/m2; 95% CI, 1-13%). CONCLUSION: The results demonstrate that all classic CVD risk factors are still relevant in Europe, irrespective of regional area. Preventive strategies should focus on risk factors with the greatest population attributable risk.

All classic cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors are still relevant in Europe, irrespective of regional area. The differences in the associations of CVD risk factors with overt CVD between regions of Europe are generally small. Minor temporal hazard decreases were observed for non-HDL cholesterol and systolic blood pressure, while a minor hazard increase was observed for body mass index.

Role of Gut Microbiota in Statin-Associated New-Onset Diabetes-A Cross-Sectional and Prospective Analysis of the FINRISK 2002 Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Dyslipidemia is treated effectively with statins, but treatment has the potential to induce new-onset type-2 diabetes. Gut microbiota may contribute to this outcome variability. We assessed the associations of gut microbiota diversity and composition with statins. Bacterial associations with statin-associated new-onset type-2 diabetes (T2D) risk were also prospectively evaluated. METHODS: We examined shallow-shotgun-sequenced fecal samples from 5755 individuals in the FINRISK-2002 population cohort with a 17+-year-long register-based follow-up. Alpha-diversity was quantified using Shannon index and beta-diversity with Aitchison distance. Species-specific differential abundances were analyzed using general multivariate regression. Prospective associations were assessed with Cox regression. Applicable results were validated using gradient boosting. RESULTS: Statin use associated with differing taxonomic composition (R2, 0.02%; q=0.02) and 13 differentially abundant species in fully adjusted models (MaAsLin; q<0.05). The strongest positive association was with Clostridium sartagoforme (ß=0.37; SE=0.13; q=0.02) and the strongest negative association with Bacteroides cellulosilyticus (ß=-0.31; SE=0.11; q=0.02). Twenty-five microbial features had significant associations with incident T2D in statin users, of which only Bacteroides vulgatus (HR, 1.286 [1.136-1.457]; q=0.03) was consistent regardless of model adjustment. Finally, higher statin-associated T2D risk was seen with [Ruminococcus] torques (ΔHRstatins, +0.11; q=0.03), Blautia obeum (ΔHRstatins, +0.06; q=0.01), Blautia sp. KLE 1732 (ΔHRstatins, +0.05; q=0.01), and beta-diversity principal component 1 (ΔHRstatin, +0.07; q=0.03) but only when adjusting for demographic covariates. CONCLUSIONS: Statin users have compositionally differing microbiotas from nonusers. The human gut microbiota is associated with incident T2D risk in statin users and possibly has additive effects on statin-associated new-onset T2D risk.

Increased risk of dementia differs across cardiovascular diseases and types of dementia - Data from a nationwide study.

AIMS: Dementia is a major health problem. Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and risk factors are associated with incident dementia. However, whether there is an association among CVD, Alzheimer's disease (AD) and vascular dementia (VD) at the population level remains unclear. METHODS: We analysed the association between CVD (heart failure [HF], atrial fibrillation [AF], myocardial infarction [MI], peripheral arterial disease, stroke and transient ischemic attack) and the incidence of dementia using nationwide FinnGen data of 218,192 individuals. The last follow-up information on dementia was available from October 2021. RESULTS: The age at the end of the follow-up was 61.7 ± 17.1 years, and 53% were women. Overall, we observed 9701 (4.4%) dementia, 6323 (2.9%) AD and 1918 (0.7%) VD cases. Individuals with CVD had a higher risk of developing dementia than unexposed individuals. In the multivariable-adjusted Cox models, stroke was most strongly associated with dementia (hazard ratio [HR] 1.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.6-1.8). CVD was more strongly associated with VD than with AD. Individuals with HF and MI had an increased risk of AD (HF: HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.04-1.19; MI: HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.02-1.18). AF was associated with VD (HR 1.58, 95% CI 1.42-1.77), but not with AD (HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.97-1.09). Clinical characteristics, such as diabetes, smoking and alcohol abuse, were associated with both types of dementia. CONCLUSION: All major CVDs were associated with an increased risk of developing dementia, particularly VD. Therefore, CVD onset should prompt an assessment of cognitive decline and possible preventive measures.

Association of work-related psychosocial factors and day-to-day home blood pressure variation: the Finn-Home study.

OBJECTIVES: Stress, and particularly job strain, has been found to associate with ambulatory blood pressure (BP). Moreover, BP is known to vary between days. One potential over-looked factor underlying this day-to-day BP variation could be work-related psychosocial factors. Thus, we aimed to study the association between job strain, job demands, job control and day-to-day BP variation. METHODS: The home BP of 754 regularly working participants (mean age 50.9 ±â€Š4.8, women 51%) of the Finn-Home Study was measured twice in the morning and twice in the evening over seven days. Average SBP and DBP were calculated for each day. Work-related psychosocial factors were measured with survey. Multivariable-adjusted generalized linear models were used for statistical analysis. RESULTS: We found a greater SBP/DBP decrease between weekdays and weekend among participants with high job strain (-1.8 [95% confidence interval, 95% CI, -2.7 to -0.8]/-1.7 [95% CI, -2.3 to -1.1] mmHg) compared to participants with low job strain (-0.7 [95% CI, -1.1 to -0.2]/-0.7 [95% CI, -1.0 to -0.4] mmHg). The participants with high job demands showed a higher BP decrease between weekdays and weekend (-1.4 [95% CI, -2.0 to -0.8]/-1.3 [95% CI, -1.6 to -0.9] mmHg) than the participants with low job demands (-0.5 [95% CI, -1.1 to 0.0]/-0.6 [95% CI, -1.0 to -0.3] mmHg). We did not find BP differences regarding job control. CONCLUSION: High job strain and high job demands were associated with a greater BP reduction from weekdays to the weekend. Work-related psychosocial factors should be considered when assessing day-to-day BP variation.

Development and clinical validation of a miniaturized finger probe for bedside hemodynamic monitoring.

Our aim is to develop a blood pressure (BP) measurement technology that could be integrated into a finger-worn pulse oximeter, eliminating the need for a brachial cuff. We present a miniature cuffless tonometric finger probe system that uses the oscillometric method to measure BP. Our approach uses a motorized press that is used to apply pressure to the fingertip to measure BP. We verified the functionality of the device in a clinical trial (n = 43) resulting in systolic and diastolic pressures ((mean ± SD) mmHg) of (-3.5 ± 8.4) mmHg and (-4.0 ± 4.4) mmHg, respectively. Comparison was made with manual auscultation (n = 26) and automated cuff oscillometry (n = 18). In addition to BP, we demonstrated the ability of the device to assess arterial stiffness (n = 18) and detect atrial fibrillation (n = 6). We were able to introduce a sufficiently small device that could be used for convenient ambulatory measurements with minimal discomfort.

Microbiome-based risk prediction in incident heart failure: a community challenge.

Heart failure (HF) is a major public health problem. Early identification of at-risk individuals could allow for interventions that reduce morbidity or mortality. The community-based FINRISK Microbiome DREAM challenge (synapse.org/finrisk) evaluated the use of machine learning approaches on shotgun metagenomics data obtained from fecal samples to predict incident HF risk over 15 years in a population cohort of 7231 Finnish adults (FINRISK 2002, n=559 incident HF cases). Challenge participants used synthetic data for model training and testing. Final models submitted by seven teams were evaluated in the real data. The two highest-scoring models were both based on Cox regression but used different feature selection approaches. We aggregated their predictions to create an ensemble model. Additionally, we refined the models after the DREAM challenge by eliminating phylum information. Models were also evaluated at intermediate timepoints and they predicted 10-year incident HF more accurately than models for 5- or 15-year incidence. We found that bacterial species, especially those linked to inflammation, are predictive of incident HF. This highlights the role of the gut microbiome as a potential driver of inflammation in HF pathophysiology. Our results provide insights into potential modeling strategies of microbiome data in prospective cohort studies. Overall, this study provides evidence that incorporating microbiome information into incident risk models can provide important biological insights into the pathogenesis of HF.

Use of electronic health record data mining for heart failure subtyping.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether electronic health record (EHR) data text mining can be used to improve register-based heart failure (HF) subtyping. EHR data of 43,405 individuals from two Finnish hospital biobanks were mined for unstructured text mentions of ejection fraction (EF) and validated against clinical assessment in two sets of 100 randomly selected individuals. Structured laboratory data was then incorporated for a categorization by HF subtype (HF with mildly reduced EF, HFmrEF; HF with preserved EF, HFpEF; HF with reduced EF, HFrEF; and no HF). RESULTS: In 86% of the cases, the algorithm-identified EF belonged to the correct HF subtype range. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of the algorithm were 94-100% for HFrEF, 85-100% for HFmrEF, and 96%, 67%, 53% and 98% for HFpEF. Survival analyses using the traditional diagnosis of HF were in concordance with the algorithm-based ones. Compared to healthy individuals, mortality increased from HFmrEF (hazard ratio [HR], 1.91; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.24-2.95) to HFpEF (2.28; 1.80-2.88) to HFrEF group (2.63; 1.97-3.50) over a follow-up of 1.5 years. We conclude that quantitative EF data can be efficiently extracted from EHRs and used with laboratory data to subtype HF with reasonable accuracy, especially for HFrEF.

Derivation of an Outcome-Driven Threshold for Aortic Pulse Wave Velocity: An Individual-Participant Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV) predicts cardiovascular events (CVEs) and total mortality (TM), but previous studies proposing actionable PWV thresholds have limited generalizability. This individual-participant meta-analysis is aimed at defining, testing calibration, and validating an outcome-driven threshold for PWV, using 2 populations studies, respectively, for derivation IDCARS (International Database of Central Arterial Properties for Risk Stratification) and replication MONICA (Monitoring of Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease Health Survey - Copenhagen). METHODS: A risk-carrying PWV threshold for CVE and TM was defined by multivariable Cox regression, using stepwise increasing PWV thresholds and by determining the threshold yielding a 5-year risk equivalent with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg. The predictive performance of the PWV threshold was assessed by computing the integrated discrimination improvement and the net reclassification improvement. RESULTS: In well-calibrated models in IDCARS, the risk-carrying PWV thresholds converged at 9 m/s (10 m/s considering the anatomic pulse wave travel distance). With full adjustments applied, the threshold predicted CVE (hazard ratio [CI]: 1.68 [1.15-2.45]) and TM (1.61 [1.01-2.55]) in IDCARS and in MONICA (1.40 [1.09-1.79] and 1.55 [1.23-1.95]). In IDCARS and MONICA, the predictive accuracy of the threshold for both end points was ≈0.75. Integrated discrimination improvement was significant for TM in IDCARS and for both TM and CVE in MONICA, whereas net reclassification improvement was not for any outcome. CONCLUSIONS: PWV integrates multiple risk factors into a single variable and might replace a large panel of traditional risk factors. Exceeding the outcome-driven PWV threshold should motivate clinicians to stringent management of risk factors, in particular hypertension, which over a person's lifetime causes stiffening of the elastic arteries as waypoint to CVE and death.