Understanding the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence Severity Premium: Exploring Its Implementation and the Implications for Decision Making and Patient Access.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to evaluate the impact of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's (NICE) new severity modifier, which has replaced the end-of-life (EoL) premium, on future NICE recommendations, considering past decision-making patterns. METHODS: NICE technology appraisals (TAs) published between January 2020 and December 2022 were reviewed. Summary statistics were generated to assess how the new severity modifier might affect hypothetical decision making in historical TAs. RESULTS: A total of 138 data points were identified from 132 TAs. Although the EoL premium was applied in 46 appraisals (33%), 57 (39%) qualify for a severity-based quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) multiplier. Only 19 appraisals (14.6%) not receiving an EoL premium met the severity criteria, the majority (17) qualifying for a 1.2× multiplier. In appraisals predicted to meet the severity criteria, 45 (79%) were in oncology, making them 4.04 times (95% CI 1.91-9.02) more likely to qualify for a severity modifier than nononcology indications. Among historically EoL indications, 42 (91%) were predicted to meet the severity criteria, making them 14.8 times (95% CI 6.37-37.6) more likely to qualify for a severity modifier. CONCLUSIONS: The new severity modifier will predominantly benefit oncology indications, continuing their previous explicit prioritization under the EoL decision modifier. However, the new severity modifier is harder to achieve and less generous; only a fraction of appraisals qualify for the highest effective £51 000 per QALY threshold. The vast majority of indications previously approved at £50 000 per QALY would now need to meet a cost-effectiveness threshold of <£36 000. This may necessitate greater pricing flexibility from manufacturers and increase the likelihood of negative recommendations.

Changing lung function and associated health-related quality-of-life: A five-year cohort study of Malawian adults.

BACKGROUND: In Sub-Saharan Africa cross-sectional studies report a high prevalence of abnormal lung function indicative of chronic respiratory disease. The natural history and health impact of this abnormal lung function in low-and middle-income countries is largely unknown. METHODS: A cohort of 1481 adults representative of rural Chikwawa in Malawi were recruited in 2014 and followed-up in 2019. Respiratory symptoms and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) were quantified. Lung function was measured by spirometry. FINDINGS: 1232 (83%) adults participated; spirometry was available for 1082 (73%). Mean (SD) age 49.5 (17.0) years, 278(23%) had ever smoked, and 724 (59%) were women. Forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) declined by 53.4 ml/year (95% CI: 49.0, 57.8) and forced vital capacity (FVC) by 45.2 ml/year (95% CI: 39.2, 50.5) . Chronic airflow obstruction increased from 9.5% (7.6, 11.6%) in 2014 to 17.5% (15.3, 19.9%) in 2019. There was no change in diagnosed asthma or in spirometry consistent with asthma or restriction. Rate of FEV1 decline was not associated with diagnosed Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, or spirometry consistent with asthma, COPD, or restriction. HRQoL was adversely associated with respiratory symptoms (dyspnoea, wheeze, cough), previous tuberculosis, declining FEV1 and spirometry consistent with asthma or restriction. These differences exceeded the minimally important difference. INTERPRETATION: In this cohort, the increasing prevalence of COPD is associated with the high rate of FEV1 decline and lung function deficits present before recruitment. Respiratory symptoms and sub-optimal lung function are independently associated with reduced HRQoL.

Cohort profile: The Chikwawa lung health cohort; a population-based observational non-communicable respiratory disease study of adults in Malawi.

PURPOSE: The aim of this article is to provide a detailed description of the Chikwawa lung health cohort which was established in rural Malawi to prospectively determine the prevalence and causes of lung disease amongst the general population of adults living in a low-income rural setting in Sub-Saharan Africa. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1481 participants were randomly identified and recruited in 2014 for the baseline study. We collected data on demographic, socio-economic status, respiratory symptoms and potentially relevant exposures such as smoking, household fuels, environmental exposures, occupational history/exposures, dietary intake, healthcare utilization, cost (medication, outpatient visits and inpatient admissions) and productivity losses. Spirometry was performed to assess lung function. At baseline, 56.9% of the participants were female, mean age was 43.8 (SD:17.8) and mean body mass index (BMI) was 21.6 Kg/m2 (SD: 3.46). FINDINGS TO DATE: The cohort has reported the prevalence of chronic respiratory symptoms (13.6%, 95% confidence interval [CI], 11.9-15.4), spirometric obstruction (8.7%, 95% CI, 7.0-10.7), and spirometric restriction (34.8%, 95% CI, 31.7-38.0). Additionally, an annual decline in forced expiratory volume in one second [FEV1] of 30.9mL/year (95% CI: 21.6 to 40.1) and forced vital capacity [FVC] by 38.3 mL/year (95% CI: 28.5 to 48.1) has been reported. FUTURE PLANS: The ongoing phases of follow-up will determine the annual rate of decline in lung function as measured through spirometry and the development of airflow obstruction and restriction, and relate these to morbidity, mortality and economic cost of airflow obstruction and restriction. Population-based mathematical models will be developed driven by the empirical data from the cohort and national population data for Malawi to assess the effects of interventions and programmes to address the lung burden in Malawi. The present follow-up study started in 2019.