Factors associated with medical consumable availability in level 1 facilities in Malawi: a secondary analysis of a facility census.

BACKGROUND: Medical consumable stock-outs negatively affect health outcomes not only by impeding or delaying the effective delivery of services but also by discouraging patients from seeking care. Consequently, supply chain strengthening is being adopted as a key component of national health strategies. However, evidence on the factors associated with increased consumable availability is limited. METHODS: In this study, we used the 2018-19 Harmonised Health Facility Assessment data from Malawi to identify the factors associated with the availability of consumables in level 1 facilities, ie, rural hospitals or health centres with a small number of beds and a sparsely equipped operating room for minor procedures. We estimate a multilevel logistic regression model with a binary outcome variable representing consumable availability (of 130 consumables across 940 facilities) and explanatory variables chosen based on current evidence. Further subgroup analyses are carried out to assess the presence of effect modification by level of care, facility ownership, and a categorisation of consumables by public health or disease programme, Malawi's Essential Medicine List classification, whether the consumable is a drug or not, and level of average national availability. FINDINGS: Our results suggest that the following characteristics had a positive association with consumable availability-level 1b facilities or community hospitals had 64% (odds ratio [OR] 1·64, 95% CI 1·37-1·97) higher odds of consumable availability than level 1a facilities or health centres, Christian Health Association of Malawi and private-for-profit ownership had 63% (1·63, 1·40-1·89) and 49% (1·49, 1·24-1·80) higher odds respectively than government-owned facilities, the availability of a computer had 46% (1·46, 1·32-1·62) higher odds than in its absence, pharmacists managing drug orders had 85% (1·85, 1·40-2·44) higher odds than a drug store clerk, proximity to the corresponding regional administrative office (facilities greater than 75 km away had 21% lower odds [0·79, 0·63-0·98] than facilities within 10 km of the district health office), and having three drug order fulfilments in the 3 months before the survey had 14% (1·14, 1·02-1·27) higher odds than one fulfilment in 3 months. Further, consumables categorised as vital in Malawi's Essential Medicine List performed considerably better with 235% (OR 3·35, 95% CI 1·60-7·05) higher odds than other essential or non-essential consumables and drugs performed worse with 79% (0·21, 0·08-0·51) lower odds than other medical consumables in terms of availability across facilities. INTERPRETATION: Our results provide evidence on the areas of intervention with potential to improve consumable availability. Further exploration of the health and resource consequences of the strategies discussed will be useful in guiding investments into supply chain strengthening. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation as part of the Global Challenges Research Fund (Thanzi La Onse; reference MR/P028004/1), the Wellcome Trust (Thanzi La Mawa; reference 223120/Z/21/Z), the UK Medical Research Council, the UK Department for International Development, and the EU (reference MR/R015600/1).

The economic costs of orthopaedic services: a health system cost analysis of tertiary hospitals in a low-income country.

BACKGROUND: Traumatic injuries are rising globally, disproportionately affecting low- and middle-income countries, constituting 88% of the burden of surgically treatable conditions. While contributing to the highest burden, LMICs also have the least availability of resources to address this growing burden effectively. Studies on the cost-of-service provision in these settings have concentrated on the most common traumatic injuries, leaving an evidence gap on other traumatic injuries. This study aimed to address the gap in understanding the cost of orthopaedic services in low-income settings by conducting a comprehensive costing analysis in two tertiary-level hospitals in Malawi. METHODS: We used a mixed costing methodology, utilising both Top-Down and Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing approaches. Data on resource utilisation, personnel costs, medicines, supplies, capital costs, laboratory costs, radiology service costs, and overhead costs were collected for one year, from July 2021 to June 2022. We conducted a retrospective review of all the available patient files for the period under review. Assumptions on the intensity of service use were based on utilisation patterns observed in patient records. All costs were expressed in 2021 United States Dollars. RESULTS: We conducted a review of 2,372 patient files, 72% of which were male. The median length of stay for all patients was 9.5 days (8-11). The mean weighted cost of treatment across the entire pathway varied, ranging from $195 ($136-$235) for Supracondylar Fractures to $711 ($389-$931) for Proximal Ulna Fractures. The main cost components were personnel (30%) and medicines and supplies (23%). Within diagnosis-specific costs, the length of stay was the most significant cost driver, contributing to the substantial disparity in treatment costs between the two hospitals. CONCLUSION: This study underscores the critical role of orthopaedic care in LMICs and the need for context-specific cost data. It highlights the variation in cost drivers and resource utilisation patterns between hospitals, emphasising the importance of tailored healthcare planning and resource allocation approaches. Understanding the costs of surgical interventions in LMICs can inform policy decisions and improve access to essential orthopaedic services, potentially reducing the disease burden associated with trauma-related injuries. We recommend that future studies focus on evaluating the cost-effectiveness of orthopaedic interventions, particularly those that have not been analysed within the existing literature.

Donor coordination to support universal health coverage in Malawi.

Development assistance is a major source of financing for health in least developed countries. However, persistent aid fragmentation has led to inefficiencies and health inequities and constrained progress towards Universal Health Coverage (UHC). Malawi is a case study for this global challenge, with 55% of total health expenditure funded by donors and fragmentation across 166 financing sources and 265 implementing partners. This often leads to poor coordination and misalignment between government priorities and donor projects. To address these challenges, the Malawi Ministry of Health (MoH) has developed and implemented an architecture of aid coordination tools and processes. Using a case study approach, we documented the iterative development, implementation and institutionalization of these tools, which was led by the MoH with technical assistance from the Clinton Health Access Initiative. We reviewed the grey literature, including relevant policy documents, planning tools and databases of government/partner funding commitments, and drew upon the authors' experiences in designing, implementing and scaling up these tools. Overall, the iterative use and revision of these tools by the Government of Malawi across the national and subnational levels, including integration with the government's public financial management system, was critical to successful uptake. The tools are used to inform government and partner resource allocation decisions, assess financing and gaps for national and district plans and inform donor grant applications. As Malawi has launched the Health Sector Strategic Plan 2023-2030, these tools are being adapted for the 'One Plan, One Budget and One Report' approach. However, while the tools are an incremental mechanism to strengthen aid alignment, success has been constrained by the larger context of power imbalances and misaligned incentives between the donor community and the Government of Malawi. Reform of the aid architecture is therefore critical to ensure that these tools achieve maximum impact in Malawi's journey towards UHC.

The changes in health service utilisation in Malawi during the COVID-19 pandemic.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic and the restriction policies implemented by the Government of Malawi may have disrupted routine health service utilisation. We aimed to find evidence for such disruptions and quantify any changes by service type and level of health care. METHODS: We extracted nationwide routine health service usage data for 2015-2021 from the electronic health information management systems in Malawi. Two datasets were prepared: unadjusted and adjusted; for the latter, unreported monthly data entries for a facility were filled in through systematic rules based on reported mean values of that facility or facility type and considering both reporting rates and comparability with published data. Using statistical descriptive methods, we first described the patterns of service utilisation in pre-pandemic years (2015-2019). We then tested for evidence of departures from this routine pattern, i.e., service volume delivered being below recent average by more than two standard deviations was viewed as a substantial reduction, and calculated the cumulative net differences of service volume during the pandemic period (2020-2021), in aggregate and within each specific facility. RESULTS: Evidence of disruptions were found: from April 2020 to December 2021, services delivered of several types were reduced across primary and secondary levels of care-including inpatient care (-20.03% less total interactions in that period compared to the recent average), immunisation (-17.61%), malnutrition treatment (-34.5%), accidents and emergency services (-16.03%), HIV (human immunodeficiency viruses) tests (-27.34%), antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiations for adults (-33.52%), and ART treatment for paediatrics (-41.32%). Reductions of service volume were greatest in the first wave of the pandemic during April-August 2020, and whereas some service types rebounded quickly (e.g., outpatient visits from -17.7% to +3.23%), many others persisted at lower level through 2021 (e.g., under-five malnutrition treatment from -15.24% to -42.23%). The total reduced service volume between April 2020 and December 2021 was 8 066 956 (-10.23%), equating to 444 units per 1000 persons. CONCLUSION: We have found substantial evidence for reductions in health service delivered in Malawi during the COVID-19 pandemic which may have potential health consequences, the effect of which should inform how decisions are taken in the future to maximise the resilience of healthcare system during similar events.

Revision of Malawi's Health Benefits Package: A Critical Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation.

OBJECTIVES: Health benefits packages (HBPs), which define specific health services that can be offered for free or at a reduced cost to fit within public revenues, have been recommended for over 30 years to maximize population health in resource-limited settings. However, there remain gaps in defining and operationalizing HBPs. We propose a combination of design and prioritization methods along with practical strategies to improve the implementation of future iterations of the HBP in Malawi. METHODS: For HBP development for Malawi's Third Health Sector Strategic Plan, we combined cost-effectiveness analysis with a quantitative, consultative multicriteria decision analysis. Throughout the process of development, we documented challenges and opportunities to improve HBP design and application. RESULTS: The primary and secondary HBP included 115 interventions. However, the definition of an HBP is just one step toward focusing limited resources, with functional operationalization as the most critical component. Full implementation of previous HBPs has been limited by challenges in aid coordination with the misalignment of nonfungible vertical donor funding for the HBP without accounting for the complexity and interconnectedness of the health system. Opportunities for improved application include creation of a complementary minimum health service package to guide overall resource inputs through an integrative approach. CONCLUSIONS: We believe that expanded participatory HBP methods that consider value, equity, and social considerations, along with a shift to providing integrated health service packages at all levels of care, will improve the efficiency of using scarce resources along the journey to universal health coverage.

Demands for Intersectoral Actions to Meet Health Challenges in East and Southern Africa and Methods for Their Evaluation.

OBJECTIVES: Focusing on the East, Central, and Southern African region, this study examines both regional and country-level initiatives aimed at promoting multisectoral collaboration to improve population health and the methods for their economic evaluation. METHODS: We explored the interventions that necessitate cooperation among policymakers from diverse sectors and the mechanisms that facilitate effective collaboration and coordination across these sectors. To gain insights into the demand for multisectoral collaboration in the East, Central, and Southern African region, we presented 3 country briefs, highlighting policy areas and initiatives that have successfully incorporated health-promoting actions from outside the health sector in Zimbabwe, Uganda, and Malawi. Additionally, we showcased initiatives undertaken by the Ministry of Health in each country to foster coordination with national and international stakeholders, along with existing coordination mechanisms established for intersectoral collaboration. Drawing on these examples, we identified the primary challenges in the economic evaluation of multisectoral programs aimed at improving health in the region. RESULTS: We illustrated how decision making in reality differs from the traditional single-sector and single-decision-maker perspective commonly used in cost-effectiveness analyses. To ensure economic evaluations can inform decision making in diverse settings and facilitate regional collaboration, we highlighted 3 fundamental principles: identifying policy objectives, defining the perspective of the analysis, and considering opportunity costs. We emphasized the importance of adopting a flexible and context-specific approach to economic evaluation. CONCLUSIONS: Through this work, we contribute to bridging the gap between theory and practice in the context of intersectoral activities aimed at improving health outcomes.

Modeling Contraception and Pregnancy in Malawi: A Thanzi La Onse Mathematical Modeling Study.

Malawi has high unmet need for contraception with a costed national plan to increase contraception use. Estimating how such investments might impact future population size in Malawi can help policymakers understand effects and value of policies to increase contraception uptake. We developed a new model of contraception and pregnancy using individual-level data capturing complexities of contraception initiation, switching, discontinuation, and failure by contraception method, accounting for differences by individual characteristics. We modeled contraception scale-up via a population campaign to increase initiation of contraception (Pop) and a postpartum family planning intervention (PPFP). We calibrated the model without new interventions to the UN World Population Prospects 2019 medium variant projection of births for Malawi. Without interventions Malawi's population passes 60 million in 2084; with Pop and PPFP interventions. it peaks below 35 million by 2100. We compare contraception coverage and costs, by method, with and without interventions, from 2023 to 2050. We estimate investments in contraception scale-up correspond to only 0.9 percent of total health expenditure per capita though could result in dramatic reductions of current pressures of very rapid population growth on health services, schools, land, and society, helping Malawi achieve national and global health and development goals.

Proposing the "Value- and Evidence-Based decision making and Practice" (VEDMAP) framework for Priority-Setting and knowledge translation in low and Middle-Income Countries: A novel framework for Decision-Making in Low-and middle income countries like Malawi.

The existence and availability of evidence on its own does not guarantee that the evidence will be demanded and used by decision and policy makers. Decision and policy-makers, especially in low-income settings, often confront ethical dilemmas about determining the best available evidence and its utilization. This dilemma can be in the form of conflict of evidence, scientific and ethical equipoise and competing evidence or interests. Consequently, decisions are made based on convenience, personal preference, donor requirements, and political and social considerations which can result in wastage of resources and inefficiency. To mitigate these challenges, the use of "Value- and Evidence-Based Decision Making and Practice" (VEDMAP) framework is proposed. This framework was developed by Joseph Mfutso-Bengo in 2017 through a desk review. It was pretested through a scoping study under the Thanzi la Onse (TLO) Project which assessed the feasibility and acceptability of using the VEDMAP as a priority setting tool for Health Technology Assessment (HTA) in Malawi. The study used mixed methods whereby it conducted a desk review to map out and benchmark normative values of different countries in Africa and HTA; focus group discussion and key informant interviews to map out the actual (practised) values in Malawi. The results of this review confirmed that the use of VEDMAP framework was feasible and acceptable and can bring efficiency, traceability, transparency and integrity in decision- policy making process and implementation.

A qualitative study on the feasibility and acceptability of institutionalizing health technology assessment in Malawi.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess the feasibility and acceptability of institutionalizing Health Technology Assessment (HTA) in Malawi. METHODS: This study employed a document review and qualitative research methods, to understand the status of HTA in Malawi. This was complemented by a review of the status and nature of HTA institutionalization in selected countries.Qualitative research employed a Focus Group Discussion (FGD ) with 7 participants, and Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) with12 informants selected based on their knowledge and expertise in policy processes related to HTA in Malawi.Data extracted from the literature was organized in Microsoft Excel, categorized according to thematic areas and analyzed using a literature review framework. Qualitative data from KIIs and the FGD was analyzed using a thematic content analysis approach. RESULTS: Some HTA processes exist and are executed through three structures namely: Ministry of Health Senior Management Team, Technical Working Groups, and Pharmacy and Medicines Regulatory Authority (PMRA) with varyingdegrees of effectiveness.The main limitations of current HTA mechanisms include limited evidence use, lack of a standardized framework for technology adoption, donor pressure, lack of resources for the HTA process and technology acquisition, laws and practices that undermine cost-effectiveness considerations. KII and FGD results showed overwhelming demand for strengthening HTA in Malawi, with a stronger preference for strengthening coordination and capacity of existing entities and structures. CONCLUSION: The study has shown that HTA institutionalization is acceptable and feasible in Malawi. However, the current committee based processes are suboptimal to improve efficiency due to lack of a structured framework. A structured HTA framework has the potential to improve processes in pharmaceuticals and medical technologies decision-making.In the short to medium term, HTA capacity building should focus on generating demand and increasing capacity in cost-effectiveness assessments. Country-specific assessments should precede HTA institutionalization as well as recommendations for new technology adoptions.

COVID-19 vaccine inequity in African low-income countries.

Equitable access and utilization of the COVID-19 vaccine is the main exit strategy from the pandemic. This paper used proceedings from the Second Extraordinary Think-Tank conference, which was held by the Health Economics and Policy Unit at the Kamuzu University of Health Sciences in collaboration with the Malawi Ministry of Health, complemented by a review of literature. We found disparities in COVID-19 vaccine coverage among low-income countries. This is also the case among high income countries. The disparities are driven mainly by insufficient supply, inequitable distribution, limited production of the vaccine in low-income countries, weak health systems, high vaccine hesitancy, and vaccine misconceptions. COVID-19 vaccine inequity continues to affect the entire world with the ongoing risks of emergence of new COVID-19 variants, increased morbidity and mortality and social and economic disruptions. In order to reduce the COVID-19 vaccination inequality in low-income countries, there is need to expand COVAX facility, waive intellectual property rights, transform knowledge and technology acquired into vaccines, and conduct mass COVID-19 vaccination campaigns.

Assessing the potential of HTA to inform resource allocation decisions in low-income settings: The case of Malawi.

Health technology assessment (HTA) offers a set of analytical tools to support health systems' decisions about resource allocation. Although there is increasing interest in these tools across the world, including in some middle-income countries, they remain rarely used in low-income countries (LICs). In general, the focus of HTA is narrow, mostly limited to assessments of efficacy and cost-effectiveness. However, the principles of HTA can be used to support a broader series of decisions regarding new health technologies. We examine the potential for this broad use of HTA in LICs, with a focus on Malawi. We develop a framework to classify the main decisions on health technologies within health systems. The framework covers decisions on identifying and prioritizing technologies for detailed assessment, deciding whether to adopt an intervention, assessing alternative investments for implementation and scale-up, and undertaking further research activities. We consider the relevance of the framework to policymakers in Malawi and we use two health technologies as examples to investigate the main barriers and enablers to the use of HTA methods. Although the scarcity of local data, expertise, and other resources could risk limiting the operationalisation of HTA in LICs, we argue that even in highly resource constrained health systems, such as in Malawi, the use of HTA to support a broad range of decisions is feasible and desirable.

Improving health workforce governance: the role of multi-stakeholder coordination mechanisms and human resources for health units in ministries of health.

BACKGROUND: A cohesive and strategic governance approach is needed to improve the health workforce (HW). To achieve this, the WHO Global Strategy on Human Resources for Health (HRH) promotes mechanisms to coordinate HRH stakeholders, HRH structures and capacity within the health sector to support the development and implementation of a comprehensive HW agenda and regular reporting through WHO's National Health Workforce Accounts (NHWA). METHODS: Using an adapted HRH governance framework for guidance and analysis, we explored the existence and operation of HRH coordination mechanisms and HRH structures in Malawi, Nepal, Sudan and additionally from a global perspective through 28 key informant interviews and a review of 165 documents. RESULTS: A unified approach is needed for the coordination of stakeholders who support the timely development and oversight of an appropriate costed HRH strategy subsequently implemented and monitored by an HRH unit. Multiple HRH stakeholder coordination mechanisms co-exist, but the broader, embedded mechanisms seemed more likely to support and sustain a comprehensive intersectoral HW agenda. Including all stakeholders is challenging and the private sector and civil society were noted for their absence. The credibility of coordination mechanisms increases participation. Factors contributing to credibility included: high-level leadership, organisational support and the generation and availability of timely HRH data and clear ownership by the ministry of health. HRH units were identified in two study countries and were reported to exist in many countries, but were not necessarily functional. There is a lack of specialist knowledge needed for the planning and management of the HW amongst staff in HRH units or equivalent structures, coupled with high turnover in many countries. Donor support has helped with provision of technical expertise and HRH data systems, though the benefits may not be sustained. CONCLUSION: While is it important to monitor the existence of HRH coordination mechanisms and HRH structure through the NHWA, improved 'health workforce literacy' for both stakeholders and operational HRH staff and a deeper understanding of the operation of these functions is needed to strengthen their contribution to HW governance and ultimately, wider health goals.

Costing and cost-effectiveness of Cepheid Xpert HIV -1 Qual Assay using whole blood protocol versus PCR by Abbott Systems in Malawi.

Background: Timely diagnosis of HIV in infants and children is an urgent priority. In Malawi, 40,000 infants annually are HIV exposed. However, gold standard polymerase-chain-reaction (PCR) based testing requires centralised laboratories, causing turn-around times (TAT) of 2 to 3 months and significant loss to follow-up. If feasible and acceptable, minimising diagnostic delays through HIV Point-of-care-testing (POCT) may be cost-effective. We assessed whether POCT Cepheid Xpert HIV-1 Qual assay whole blood (XpertHIV) was more cost-effective than PCR. Methods: From July-August 2018, 700 PCR Abbott tests using dried blood spots (DBS) were performed on 680 participants who enrolled on the feasibility, acceptability and performance of the XpertHIV study. Newly identified HIV-positive We conducted a cost-minimisation and cost-effectiveness analysis of XpertHIV against PCR, as the standard of care. A random sample of 200 caregivers from the 680 participants had semi-structured interviews to explore costs from a societal perspective of XpertHIV at Mulanje District Hospital, Malawi. Analysis used TAT as the primary outcome measure. Results were extrapolated from the study period (29 days) to a year (240 working days). Sensitivity analyses characterised individual and joint parameter uncertainty and estimated patient cost per test. Results: During the study period, XpertHIV was cost-minimising at $42.34 per test compared to $66.66 for PCR. Over a year, XpertHIV remained cost-minimising at $16.12 compared to PCR at $27.06. From the patient perspective (travel, food, lost productivity), the cost per test of XpertHIV was $2.45. XpertHIV had a mean TAT of 7.10 hours compared to 153.15 hours for PCR. Extrapolates accounting for equipment costs, lab consumables and losses to follow up estimated annual savings of $2,193,538.88 if XpertHIV is used nationally, as opposed to PCR. Conclusions: This preliminary evidence suggests that adopting POCT XpertHIV will save time, allowing HIV-exposed infants to receive prompt care and may improve outcomes. The Malawi government will pay less due to XpertHIV's cost savings and associated benefits.

Informing decisions with disparate stakeholders: cross-sector evaluation of cash transfers in Malawi.

The Social Cash Transfer Programme (SCTP) in Malawi is a cross-sectoral policy with impacts on health, education, nutrition, agriculture and welfare. Implementation of the SCTP requires collaboration across sectors and across national and international stakeholders. Economic evaluation can inform investment by indicating whether benefits exceed costs, but economic evaluations that provide an overall benefit-cost ratio typically assume a common agreed objective and agreed set of value judgements. In reality, the various stakeholders involved in the delivery of the SCTP may have different remits and objectives and may differ in how they value the impacts of the programme. We use the SCTP as a case study to illustrate a cross-sectoral analytical framework that accounts for these differences. The stakeholders that contribute to the SCTP include the Ministry of Gender, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Economic Planning and Development and Global Fund. We estimate how the SCTP changes outcomes in education, health, net production and poverty, and distinguish outcomes in three groups: SCTP recipients; population in Malawi not eligible for the SCTP and population in other countries. After estimating the direct effects and opportunity costs from investing in the SCTP, we summarize the results according to different perspectives. The SCTP is estimated to provide benefits in excess of costs from the perspective of national stakeholders. From the perspective of an international donor interested in health outcomes, its health benefits do not outweigh the opportunity costs unless health improvement in SCTP recipients is valued at 18 times that of other potential spending beneficiaries or the donor values broader outcomes than health alone. This work illustrates the potential of a cross-sectoral economic evaluation to guide debate about stakeholder contributions to the SCTP, and the value judgements required to favour the SCTP above other policy options.

Concomitant health benefits package design and research prioritisation: development of a new approach and an application to Malawi.

Health benefits packages (HBPs) are increasingly used in many countries to guide spending priorities on the path towards universal health coverage. Their design is, however, informed by an uncertain evidence base but research funds available to address this are limited. This gives rise to the question of which piece of research relating to the cost-effectiveness of interventions would most contribute to improving resource allocation. We propose to incorporate research prioritisation as an integral part of HBP design. We have, therefore, developed a framework and a freely available companion stand-alone tool, to quantify in terms of net disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted, the value of research for the interventions considered for inclusion in a package. Using the tool, the framework can be implemented using sensitivity analysis results typically reported in cost-effectiveness studies. To illustrate the framework, we applied the tool to the evidence base that informed the Malawi Health Sector Strategic Plan 2017-2022. Out of 21 interventions considered, 8 investment decisions were found to be uncertain and three showed strong potential for research to generate large health gains: 'male circumcision', 'community-management of acute malnutrition in children' and 'isoniazid preventive therapy in HIV +individuals', with a potential to avert up to 65 762, 36 438 and 20 132 net DALYs, respectively. Our work can help set research priorities in resource-constrained settings so that research funds are invested where they have the largest potential to impact on the population health generated via HBPs.

Potential impact of intervention strategies on COVID-19 transmission in Malawi: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 mitigation strategies have been challenging to implement in resource-limited settings due to the potential for widespread disruption to social and economic well-being. Here we predict the clinical severity of COVID-19 in Malawi, quantifying the potential impact of intervention strategies and increases in health system capacity. METHODS: The infection fatality ratios (IFR) were predicted by adjusting reported IFR for China, accounting for demography, the current prevalence of comorbidities and health system capacity. These estimates were input into an age-structured deterministic model, which simulated the epidemic trajectory with non-pharmaceutical interventions and increases in health system capacity. FINDINGS: The predicted population-level IFR in Malawi, adjusted for age and comorbidity prevalence, is lower than that estimated for China (0.26%, 95% uncertainty interval (UI) 0.12%-0.69%, compared with 0.60%, 95% CI 0.4% to 1.3% in China); however, the health system constraints increase the predicted IFR to 0.83%, 95% UI 0.49%-1.39%. The interventions implemented in January 2021 could potentially avert 54 400 deaths (95% UI 26 900-97 300) over the course of the epidemic compared with an unmitigated outbreak. Enhanced shielding of people aged ≥60 years could avert 40 200 further deaths (95% UI 25 300-69 700) and halve intensive care unit admissions at the peak of the outbreak. A novel therapeutic agent which reduces mortality by 0.65 and 0.8 for severe and critical cases, respectively, in combination with increasing hospital capacity, could reduce projected mortality to 2.5 deaths per 1000 population (95% UI 1.9-3.6). CONCLUSION: We find the interventions currently used in Malawi are unlikely to effectively prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission but will have a significant impact on mortality. Increases in health system capacity and the introduction of novel therapeutics are likely to further reduce the projected numbers of deaths.

Distributional impact of the Malawian Essential Health Package.

In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), making the best use of scarce resources is essential to achieving universal health coverage. The design of health benefits packages creates the opportunity to select interventions on the basis of explicit objectives. Distributional cost-effectiveness analysis (DCEA) provides a framework to evaluate interventions based on two objectives: increasing population health and reducing health inequality. We conduct aggregate DCEA of potential health benefits package interventions to demonstrate the feasibility of this approach in LMICs, using the case of the Malawian health benefits package. We use publicly available survey and census data common to LMICs and describe what challenges we encountered and how we addressed them. We estimate that diseases targeted by the health benefits package are most prevalent in the poorest population quintile and least prevalent in the richest quintile. The survey data we use indicate socioeconomic patterns in intervention uptake that diminish the population health gain and inequality reduction from the package. We find that a similar set of interventions would be prioritized when impact on health inequality is incorporated alongside impact on overall population health. However, conclusions about the impact of individual interventions on health inequalities are sensitive to assumptions regarding the health opportunity cost, the utilization of interventions, the distribution of diseases across population groups and the level of aversion to inequality. Our results suggest that efforts to improve access to the Essential Health Package could be targeted to specific interventions to improve the health of the poorest fastest but that identifying these interventions is uncertain. This exploratory work has shown the potential for applying the DCEA framework to inform health benefits package design within the LMIC setting and to provide insight into the equity impact of a health benefits package.

A cross-sectional study on factors associated with health seeking behaviour of Malawians aged 15+ years in 2016.

Introduction: Health seeking behaviour (HSB) refers to actions taken by individuals who are ill in order to find appropriate remedy. Most studies on HSB have only examined one symptom or covered only a specific geographical location within a country. In this study, we used a representative sample of adults to explore the factors associated with HSB in response to 30 symptoms reported by adult Malawians in 2016. Methods: We used the 2016 Malawi Integrated Household Survey dataset. We fitted a multilevel logistic regression model of likelihood of 'seeking care at a health facility' using a forward step-wise selection method, with age, sex and reported symptoms entered as a priori variables. We calculated the odds ratios (ORs) and their associated 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). We set the level of statistical significance at P < 0.05. Results: Of 6909 adults included in the survey, 1907 (29%) reported symptoms during the 2 weeks preceding the survey. Of these, 937 (57%) sought care at a health facility. Adults in urban areas were more likely to seek health care at a health facility than those in rural areas (AOR = 1.65, 95% CI: 1.19-2.30, P = 0.003). Females had a higher likelihood of seeking care from health facilities than males (AOR = 1.26, 95% CI: 1.03-1.59, P = 0.029). Being of higher wealth status was associated with a higher likelihood of seeking care from a health facility (AOR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.16-2.16, P = 0.004). Having fever and eye problems were associated with higher likelihood of seeking care at a health facility, while having headache, stomach ache and respiratory tract infections were associated with lower likelihood of seeking care at a health facility. Conclusion: This study has shown that there is a need to understand and address individual, socioeconomic and geographical barriers to health seeking to increase access and appropriate use of health care and fast-track progress towards Universal Health Coverage among the adult population.

An evolution of socioeconomic related inequality in teenage pregnancy and childbearing in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Teenage pregnancies and childbearing are important health concerns in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) including Malawi. Addressing these challenges requires, among other things, an understanding of the socioeconomic determinants of and contributors to the inequalities relating to these outcomes. This study investigated the trends of the inequalities and decomposed the underlying key socioeconomic factors which accounted for the inequalities in teenage pregnancy and childbearing in Malawi. METHODS: The study used the 2004, 2010 and 2015-16 series of nationally representative Malawi Demographic Health Survey covering 12,719 women. We used concentration curves to examine the existence of inequalities, and then quantified the extent of inequalities in teenage pregnancies and childbearing using the Erreygers concentration index. Finally, we decomposed concentration index to find out the contribution of the determinants to socioeconomic inequality in teenage pregnancy and childbearing. RESULTS: The teenage pregnancy and childbearing rate averaged 29% (p<0.01) between 2004 and 2015-16. Trends showed a "u-shape" in teenage pregnancy and childbearing rates, albeit a small one (34.1%; p<0.01) in 2004: (25.6%; p<0.01) in 2010, and (29%; p<0.01) in 2016. The calculated concentration indices -0.207 (p<0.01) in 2004, -0.133 (p<0.01) in 2010, and -0.217 (p<0.01) in 2015-16 indicated that inequality in teenage pregnancy and childbearing worsened to the disadvantage of the poor in the country. Additionally, the decomposition exercise suggested that the primary drivers to inequality in teenage pregnancy and child bearing were, early sexual debut (15.5%), being married (50%), and wealth status (13.8%). CONCLUSION: The findings suggest that there is a need for sustained investment in the education of young women concerning the disadvantages of early sexual debut and early marriages, and in addressing the wealth inequalities in order to reduce the incidences of teenage pregnancies and childbearing.