Quantifying urban growth patterns in Hanoi using landscape expansion modes and time series spatial metrics.

Urbanization has been driven by various social, economic, and political factors around the world for centuries. Because urbanization continues unabated in many places, it is crucial to understand patterns of urbanization and their potential ecological and environmental impacts. Given this need, the objectives of our study were to quantify urban growth rates, growth modes, and resultant changes in the landscape pattern of urbanization in Hanoi, Vietnam from 1993 to 2010 and to evaluate the extent to which the process of urban growth in Hanoi conformed to the diffusion-coalescence theory. We analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns and dynamics of the built-up land in Hanoi using landscape expansion modes, spatial metrics, and a gradient approach. Urbanization was most pronounced in the periods of 2001-2006 and 2006-2010 at a distance of 10 to 35 km around the urban center. Over the 17 year period urban expansion in Hanoi was dominated by infilling and edge expansion growth modes. Our findings support the diffusion-coalescence theory of urbanization. The shift of the urban growth areas over time and the dynamic nature of the spatial metrics revealed important information about our understanding of the urban growth process and cycle. Furthermore, our findings can be used to evaluate urban planning policies and aid in urbanization issues in rapidly urbanizing countries.

Evidence for the Convergence Model: The Emergence of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Viet Nam.

Building on a series of ground breaking reviews that first defined and drew attention to emerging infectious diseases (EID), the 'convergence model' was proposed to explain the multifactorial causality of disease emergence. The model broadly hypothesizes disease emergence is driven by the co-incidence of genetic, physical environmental, ecological, and social factors. We developed and tested a model of the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 based on suspected convergence factors that are mainly associated with land-use change. Building on previous geospatial statistical studies that identified natural and human risk factors associated with urbanization, we added new factors to test whether causal mechanisms and pathogenic landscapes could be more specifically identified. Our findings suggest that urbanization spatially combines risk factors to produce particular types of peri-urban landscapes with significantly higher HPAI H5N1 emergence risk. The work highlights that peri-urban areas of Viet Nam have higher levels of chicken densities, duck and geese flock size diversities, and fraction of land under rice or aquaculture than rural and urban areas. We also found that land-use diversity, a surrogate measure for potential mixing of host populations and other factors that likely influence viral transmission, significantly improves the model's predictability. Similarly, landscapes where intensive and extensive forms of poultry production overlap were found at greater risk. These results support the convergence hypothesis in general and demonstrate the potential to improve EID prevention and control by combing geospatial monitoring of these factors along with pathogen surveillance programs.