Four challenges to an effective national nature assessment.

Comprehensive biodiversity assessments play an essential role in strengthening global and national conservation strategies. The recently announced first U.S. National Nature Assessment (NNA) provides an unparalleled opportunity to comprehensively review status and trends of biodiversity at all levels. This broad context can help in the coordination of actions to conserve individual species and ecosystems. The scientific assessments that informed the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework adopted at the 2022 Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) conference of parties provide models for synthesizing information on trends at multiple levels of biodiversity, including decline in abundance and distribution of species, loss of populations and genetic diversity, and degradation and loss of ecosystems and their services. The assessments then relate these trends to data on drivers of biodiversity loss and pathways to their mitigation. The U.S. NNA can augment such global analyses and avoid the pitfalls encountered by previous U.S. efforts by ensuring policy-relevant design, data accessibility, and inclusivity in process and product and by incorporating spatial data relevant to national and subnational audiences. Although the United States is not formally a CBD party, an effective NNA should take full advantage of the global context by including indicators adopted at the 2022 meeting and incorporating an independent review mechanism that supports periodic stocktaking and ratcheting up of ambition in response to identified shortfalls in stemming biodiversity loss. The challenges to design of an effective U.S. assessment are relevant globally as nations develop assessments and reporting to support the new global biodiversity framework's targets. By considering and incorporating the diverse ways in which society values and benefits from nature, such assessments can help bridge the gap between research and conservation practice and communicate the extent of the biodiversity crisis to the public, fostering broad-based support for transformative change in humanity's relationship to the natural world.

Cuatro obstáculos para una eficaz evaluación nacional de la naturaleza Resumen Las evaluaciones completas de la biodiversidad tienen un papel esencial en el fortalecimiento de las estrategias de conservación nacional y mundial. La recién anunciada Evaluación Nacional de la Naturaleza (ENN) de los EE. UU. proporciona una oportunidad sin precedentes para revisar de manera completa el estado y las tendencias de la biodiversidad en todos los niveles. Este contexto generalizado puede ayudar a la coordinación de acciones para la conservación de especies individuales y ecosistemas. Las evaluaciones científicas que guiaron el Marco Mundial de la Biodiversidad de Kumming-Montreal adoptado en la conferencia de las partes de la Convención sobre la Diversidad Biológica (CBD) de 2022 proporcionan modelos para sintetizar la información sobre las tendencias de la biodiversidad a varios niveles, incluyendo la declinación en abundancia y distribución de especies, pérdida de poblaciones y diversidad genética y la degradación y pérdida de los ecosistemas y sus servicios. Después de esto, las evaluaciones relacionan estas tendencias con la información sobre los causantes de la pérdida de la biodiversidad y las maneras de mitigarla. La ENN de los EE. UU. pueden aumentar estos análisis mundiales y evitar las dificultades enfrentadas por los esfuerzos previos al garantizar un diseño relevante para las políticas, la disponibilidad de datos y la inclusión en el proceso y el producto y también mediante la incorporación de datos espaciales relevantes para el público nacional y subnacional. Aunque los EE. UU. no son una parte formal de la CBD, una ENN efectiva debería aprovechar de lleno el contexto global al incluir los indicadores adoptados en la reunión de 2022 e incorporar un mecanismo independiente de revisión que respalde el balance periódico y el aumento de la ambición en respuesta a las deficiencias detectadas en la contención de la pérdida de biodiversidad. Los retos para diseñar una evaluación estadunidense son relevantes a nivel mundial ya que los países evalúan y reportan para mantener los objetivos mundiales de biodiversidad post-2020. Si consideramos las diferentes maneras en las que la sociedad valora y se beneficia de la naturaleza, dichas evaluaciones pueden ayudar a cerrar la brecha entre la investigación y la práctica de la conservación y a comunicarle al público el nivel de la crisis de la biodiversidad, lo que fomenta el apoyo generalizado para transformar la relación entre la humanidad y el mundo natural.

How percentage-protected targets can support positive biodiversity outcomes.

Global targets for the percentage area of land protected, such as 30% by 2030, have gained increasing prominence, but both their scientific basis and likely effectiveness have been questioned. As with emissions-reduction targets based on desired climate outcomes, percentage-protected targets combine values and science by estimating the area over which conservation actions are required to help achieve desired biodiversity outcomes. Protected areas are essential for achieving many biodiversity targets, in part because many species are highly sensitive to human-associated disturbance. However, because the contribution of protected areas to biodiversity outcomes is contingent on their location, management, governance, threats, and what occurs across the broader landscape matrix, global percentage-protected targets are unavoidably empirical generalizations of ecological patterns and processes across diverse geographies. Percentage-protected targets are insufficient in isolation but can complement other actions and contribute to biodiversity outcomes within a framework that balances accuracy and pragmatism in a global context characterized by imperfect biodiversity data. Ideally, percentage-protected targets serve as anchors that strengthen comprehensive national biodiversity strategies by communicating the level of ambition necessary to reverse current trends of biodiversity loss. If such targets are to fulfill this role within the complex societal process by which both values and science impel conservation actions, conservation scientists must clearly communicate the nature of the evidence base supporting percentage-protected targets and how protected areas can function within a broader landscape managed for sustainable coexistence between people and nature. A new paradigm for protected and conserved areas recognizes that national coordination, incentives, and monitoring should support rather than undermine diverse locally led conservation initiatives. However, the definition of a conserved area must retain a strong focus on biodiversity to remain consistent with the evidence base from which percentage-protected targets were originally derived.

RESUMEN: Las metas globales del porcentaje de área de suelo protegido, como el de 30% para el 2030, han obtenido una prominencia incrementada, a pesar de que se les cuestionen sus bases científicas y la probabilidad de su efectividad. Así como las metas de reducción de emisiones, las metas de porcentaje de protección combinan valores y ciencia mediante la estimación del área que requiere acciones de conservación para ayudar a lograr los resultados deseados de biodiversidad. Las áreas protegidas son esenciales para alcanzar muchas metas de biodiversidad, en parte porque muchas especies son altamente sensibles a las perturbaciones asociadas con el humano. Sin embargo, debido a que la contribución de las áreas protegidas a los resultados de biodiversidad depende de su ubicación, gestión, manejo, amenazas y lo que ocurra a lo largo de la amplia matriz del paisaje, las metas de porcentaje de protección son generalizaciones empíricas inevitables de los patrones y procesos ecológicos en la geografía diversa. Las metas de porcentaje de protección son insuficientes por sí solas, pero pueden complementar a otras acciones y contribuir a los resultados de biodiversidad dentro de un marco de trabajo que balancee la exactitud y el pragmatismo dentro de un contexto global caracterizado por datos imperfectos de la biodiversidad. Idealmente, las metas de porcentaje de protección fungen como pilares que fortalecen las estrategias nacionales integrales de biodiversidad mediante la comunicación del nivel de ambición necesaria para revertir las tendencias actuales de pérdida de la biodiversidad. Si se espera que dichas metas realicen este papel dentro del complejo proceso social en el que tanto los valores como la ciencia impulsan las acciones de conservación, los científicos de la conservación deben comunicar claramente la naturaleza de la base de evidencias que respalda las metas de porcentaje de protección y cómo las áreas protegidas pueden funcionar dentro de un paisaje más amplio gestionado por la coexistencia sustentable entre la naturaleza y las personas. Un nuevo paradigma para las áreas protegidas y conservadas reconoce que la coordinación nacional, los incentivos y el monitoreo deberían respaldar, y no debilitar, a las diferentes iniciativas de conservación llevadas por la población local. Sin embargo, la definición de un área conservada debe mantener un enfoque sólido sobre la biodiversidad para seguir siendo coherente con la base de evidencias de la cual derivaron originalmente las metas de porcentaje de protección.

Improving species status assessments under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and implications for multispecies conservation challenges worldwide.

Despite its successes, the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) has proven challenging to implement due to funding limitations, workload backlog, and other problems. As threats to species survival intensify and as more species come under threat, the need for the ESA and similar conservation laws and policies in other countries to function efficiently has grown. Attempts by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to streamline ESA decisions include multispecies recovery plans and habitat conservation plans. We address species status assessment (SSA), a USFWS process to inform ESA decisions from listing to recovery, within the context of multispecies and ecosystem planning. Although existing SSAs have a single-species focus, ecosystem-based research can efficiently inform multiple SSAs within a region and provide a foundation for transition to multispecies SSAs in the future. We considered at-risk grassland species and ecosystems within the southeastern United States, where a disproportionate number of rare and endemic species are associated with grasslands. To initiate our ecosystem-based approach, we used a combined literature-based and structured World Café workshop format to identify science needs for SSAs. Discussions concentrated on 5 categories of threats to grassland species and ecosystems, consistent with recommendations to make shared threats a focus of planning under the ESA: (1) habitat loss, fragmentation, and disruption of functional connectivity; (2) climate change; (3) altered disturbance regimes; (4) invasive species; and (5) localized impacts. For each threat, workshop participants identified science and information needs, including database availability, research priorities, and modeling and mapping needs. Grouping species by habitat and shared threats can make the SSA process and other planning processes for conservation of at-risk species worldwide more efficient and useful. We found a combination of literature review and structured discussion effective for identifying the scientific information and analysis needed to support the development of multiple SSAs. Article impact statement: Species status assessments can be improved by an ecosystem-based approach that groups imperiled species by shared habitats and threats.

Mejoramiento de la Evaluación del Estado de una Especie bajo el Acta de Especies en Peligro de los Estados Unidos y Sus Consecuencias para los Retos de la Conservación Multiespecie a Nivel Mundial Resumen A pesar de su éxito, el Acta de Especies en Peligro de los E.U.A. (AEP) ha sido un reto de implementación por las limitaciones en su financiamiento, el retraso en la carga de trabajo y otros problemas. Conforme se intensifican las amenazas a la supervivencia de las especies y más especies resultan amenazadas, aumenta la necesidad de que la AEP y las políticas similares de otros países funcionen efectivamente. Los intentos por parte del Servicio Estadounidense de Pesca y Fauna (SEPF) para optimizar las decisiones de la AEP incluyen planes multiespecie de recuperación y planes de conservación de hábitat (PRH). Abordamos la evaluación del estado de las especies (EEE), un proceso del SEPF para orientar las decisiones del AEP desde el listado hasta la recuperación, dentro del contexto de la planeación multiespecie y de ecosistemas. Aunque las EEE existentes tienen un enfoque sobre una única especie, la investigación basada en el ecosistema puede orientar eficientemente a múltiples EEE dentro de una región y proporcionar una base para la transición a las EEE multiespecie en el futuro. Consideramos a las especies y los ecosistemas en riesgo de los pastizales del sureste de los Estados Unidos, en donde un número desproporcionado de especies raras y endémicas está asociado con los pastizales. Para iniciar nuestra estrategia basada en el ecosistema, usamos un formato de taller de World Café estructurado y basado en la literatura para identificar la necesidad de tener EEE. Las discusiones se centraron en cinco categorías de amenazas para las especies y ecosistemas de los pastizales, consistentes con las recomendaciones para volver a las amenazas compartidas un foco de la planeación bajo la AEP: (1) pérdida del hábitat, fragmentación y disrupción de la conectividad funcional; (2) cambio climático; (3) regímenes alterados de perturbación; (4) especies invasoras; y (5) impactos localizados. Para cada amenaza, los participantes del taller identificaron las necesidades científicas y de información, incluyendo la disponibilidad de bases de datos, prioridades de la investigación y necesidades de modelado y mapeado. La agrupación de las especies por hábitat y amenaza compartida puede hacer más eficientes y útiles el proceso de EEE y otros procesos de planeación de la conservación de especies en riesgo a nivel mundial. Encontramos una combinación de revisiones bibliográficas y discusiones estructuradas para identificar la información y el análisis necesarios para respaldar el desarrollo de múltiples EEE.

Rewilding in the face of climate change.

Expansion of the global protected-area network has been proposed as a strategy to address threats from accelerating climate change and species extinction. A key step in increasing the effectiveness of such expansion is understanding how novel threats to biodiversity from climate change alter concepts such as rewilding, which have underpinned many proposals for large interconnected reserves. We reviewed potential challenges that climate change poses to rewilding and found that the conservation value of large protected areas persists under climate change. Nevertheless, more attention should be given to protection of microrefugia, macrorefugia, complete environmental gradients, and areas that connect current and future suitable climates and to maintaining ecosystem processes and stabilizing feedbacks via conservation strategies that are resilient to uncertainty regarding climate trends. Because a major element of the threat from climate change stems from its novel geographic patterns, we examined, as an example, the implications for climate-adaptation planning of latitudinal, longitudinal (continental to maritime), and elevational gradients in climate-change exposure across the Yellowstone-to-Yukon region, the locus of an iconic conservation proposal initially designed to conserve wide-ranging carnivore species. In addition to a continued emphasis on conserving intact landscapes, restoration of degraded low-elevation areas within the region is needed to capture sites important for landscape-level climate resilience. Extreme climate exposure projected for boreal North America suggests the need for ambitious goals for expansion of the protected-area network there to include refugia created by topography and ecological features, such as peatlands, whose conservation can also reduce emissions from carbon stored in soil. Qualitative understanding of underlying reserve design rules and the geography of climate-change exposure can strengthen the outcomes of inclusive regional planning processes that identify specific sites for protection.

Retorno a la Vida Silvestre de frente al Cambio Climático Resumen La expansión de la red mundial de áreas protegidas ha sido propuesta como una estrategia para tratar con las amenazas del creciente cambio climático y la extinción de especies. Un paso importante para el incremento de la efectividad de dicha expansión es el entendimiento de cómo las amenazas novedosas para la biodiversidad que provienen del cambio climático alteran conceptos como el retorno a la vida silvestre, el cual ha apuntalado muchas propuestas de grandes reservas interconectadas. Revisamos los obstáculos potenciales que representan el cambio climático para el retorno a la vida silvestre y encontramos que el valor de conservación de las áreas protegidas grandes persiste bajo el cambio climático. Sin embargo, se le debería brindar mayor atención a la protección de los microrefugios, del gradiente ambiental completo y de las áreas que conectan climas adecuados actuales y futuros. También se le debe brindar atención al mantenimiento de los procesos ambientales y a la estabilización de la retroalimentación por medio las estrategias de conservación que son resilientes a la incertidumbre relacionada con las tendencias climáticas. Ya que un elemento principal de la amenaza que representa el cambio climático surge de sus patrones geográficos novedosos examinamos, como ejemplo, las implicaciones de los gradientes latitudinales, longitudinales (continental a marítima) y altitudinales para la planeación de la adaptación climática dentro de la exposición al cambio climático en toda la región de Yellowstone a Yukón, el sitio de una propuesta icónica de conservación diseñada inicialmente para conservar especies carnívoras de amplia distribución. Además de un énfasis continuo sobre la conservación intacta del paisaje, se requiere la restauración de las áreas degradadas de baja elevación dentro de la región para capturar los sitios importantes para la resiliencia climática a nivel de paisaje. La exposición climática extrema proyectada para la parte boreal de América del Norte sugiere que se necesitan metas ambiciosas para la expansión de la red de áreas protegidas que se encuentran allí para incluir también a los refugios creados por la topografía y las características ecológicas, como las turberas, cuya conservación también puede reducir las emisiones de carbono almacenado en el suelo. El entendimiento cualitativo de las reglas subyacentes de diseño de reservas y la geografía de la exposición al cambio climático puede fortalecer los resultados de los procesos de planeación regional incluyente para identificar los sitios específicos que requieren protección.

Comment on "The global tree restoration potential".

Bastin et al's estimate (Reports, 5 July 2019, p. 76) that tree planting for climate change mitigation could sequester 205 gigatonnes of carbon is approximately five times too large. Their analysis inflated soil organic carbon gains, failed to safeguard against warming from trees at high latitudes and elevations, and considered afforestation of savannas, grasslands, and shrublands to be restoration.

Wetlands are keystone habitats for jaguars in an intercontinental biodiversity hotspot.

Agricultural development was the major contributor to South America's designation as the continent with the highest rates of forest loss from 2000-2012. As the apex predator in the Neotropics, jaguars (Panthera onca) are dependent on forest cover but the species' response to habitat fragmentation in heterogeneous agricultural landscapes has not been a subject of extensive research. We used occupancy as a measure of jaguar habitat use in Colombia's middle Magdalena River valley which, as part of the intercontinental Tumbes-Chocó-Magdalena biodiversity hotspot, is exceedingly fragmented by expanding cattle pastures and oil palm plantations. We used single-season occupancy models to analyze 9 months of data (2015-2016) from 70 camera trap sites. Given the middle Magdalena's status as a "jaguar corridor" and our possible violation of the occupancy models' demographic closure assumption, we interpreted our results as "probability of habitat use (Ψ)" by jaguars. We measured the associations between jaguar presence and coverage of forest, oil palm, and wetlands in radii buffers of 1, 3, and 5 km around each camera trap. Our camera traps recorded 77 jaguar detections at 25 of the camera trap sites (36%) during 15,305 trap nights. The probability of detecting jaguars, given their presence at a site, was 0.28 (0.03 SE). In the top-ranked model, jaguar habitat use was positively influenced by wetland coverage (ß = 7.16, 3.20 SE) and negatively influenced by cattle pastures (ß = -1.40, 0.63 SE), both in the 3 km buffers. We conclude that wetlands may serve as keystone habitats for jaguars in landscapes fragmented by cattle ranches and oil palm plantations. Greater focus on wetland preservation could facilitate jaguar persistence in one of the most important yet vulnerable areas of their distribution.

Threatened amphibians sheltered under the big cat's umbrella: conservation of jaguars Panthera onca (Carnivora: Felidae) and endemic herpetofauna in Central America / Anfibios amenazados se refugiaron bajo la sombrilla del gato grande: evaluación de la conservación del jaguar Panthera onca (Carnivora: Felidae) y la herpetofauna endémica en Centro América

Abstract The umbrella species concept posits that protection of a single, wide-ranging species may confer protection to a large number of sympatric species. Due to their large home ranges, widespread distribution in the Mesoamerican Biodiversity Hotspot (MBH), and status as the focal species of numerous conservation initiatives, the jaguar Panthera onca is an ideal species to evaluate the umbrella strategy. After ground-truthing jaguar corridors from 2009-2016, we tested the umbrella value of jaguars for endemic herpetofauna (Amphibia, Reptilia) in Nuclear Central America (NCA), a ~ 370 000 km² sub-region of the MBH. NCA contains the greatest density of threatened reptiles in the Western Hemisphere and harbors extraordinary high diversity of amphibians, the most threatened class of vertebrate worldwide. Of the 304 regional endemics in NCA, the distributions of 187 (61.5 %) species of amphibians and reptiles overlapped ground-truthed jaguar range. The distributions of 14 reptiles, including a critically endangered Bothriechis spp. and two endangered Norops spp., occur exclusively within jaguar distribution. Similarly, the distributions of 19 amphibians, including four critically endangered Craugastor spp. and two critically endangered Plectrohyla spp. occur entirely within jaguar distribution. Our results indicate greater effectiveness of ground-truthed jaguar distribution than modeled and randomly selected networks in overlapping the distributions of endemic herpetofauna, especially threatened amphibians, in NCA. Substantiation of multi-taxa dependence on habitat in jaguar distribution would strengthen justification for wider application of the umbrella strategy beyond NCA and aid conservation planning in the MBH.

Resumen Las especies sombrilla son aquellas cuya conservación confiere protección a un gran número de especies simpátricas. Debido a sus ámbitos hogareños extensos, a una distribución generalizada en el Hotspot de Biodiversidad de Mesoaméricana (MBH), y su estatus como especie focal de numerosas iniciativas de conservación, el jaguar Panthera onca es una especie ideal para evaluar la estrategia sombrilla. Evaluamos el valor de los jaguares como estrategia sombrilla para la herpetofauna endémica en Centro América Nuclear (NCA), una subregión de ~ 370 000 km² que se encuentra dentro del MBH. La NCA contiene la mayor densidad de reptiles amenazados en el hemisferio occidental y alberga una diversidad extraordinaria de anfibios, que es la clase de vertebrados más amenazada del mundo. De las 304 especies endémicas regionales presentes en el NCA, las distribuciones de 187 (61.5 %) se sobrepusieron al área de distribución del jaguar verificada. Las distribuciones de 14 reptiles, incluyendo una Bothriechis spp. (en Peligro Crítico) y dos Norops spp. (en Peligro de Extinción), se dan exclusivamente dentro del rango del jaguar. Similarmente, 19 especies de anfibios, incluidas cuatro Craugastor spp. (en Peligro Crítico) y dos Plectrohyla spp. (en Peligro Crítico) están presentes exclusivamente dentro del área de distribución del jaguar. Nuestros resultados indican que los corredores verificados para el jaguar coinciden mejor con las distribuciones de la herpetofauna endémica dentro del NCA, especialmente anfibios, en comparación con los corredores modelados y seleccionados al azar. La confirmación del traslape de la distribución del hábitat del jaguar con la de múltiples taxones fortalece la justificación de una aplicación más amplia de la estrategia sombrilla, aún más allá del NCA, contribuyendo también en la selección de áreas de conservación previamente subestimadas dentro del MBH.

Reducing the threat of wildlife-vehicle collisions during peak tourism periods using a Roadside Animal Detection System.

Roadside Animal Detection Systems (RADS) aim to reduce the frequency of wildlife-vehicle collisions. Unlike fencing and wildlife passages, RADS do not attempt to keep animals off the road; rather, they attempt to modify driver behavior by detecting animals near the road and warning drivers with flashing signs. A RADS was installed in Big Cypress National Park (Florida, USA) in 2012 in response to an increased number of Florida panther mortalities. To assess driver response, we measured the speed of individual cars on the road when the RADS was active (flashing) and inactive (not flashing) during the tourist season (November-March) and the off-season (April-October), which vary dramatically in traffic volume. We also used track beds and camera traps to assess whether roadside activity of large mammal species varied between seasons. In the tourist season, the activation of the RADS caused a significant reduction in vehicle speed. However, this effect was not observed in the off-season. Track and camera data showed that the tourist season coincided with peak periods of activity for several large mammals of conservation interest. Drivers in the tourist season generally drove faster than those in the off-season, so a reduction in speed in response to the RADS is more beneficial in the tourist season. Because traffic volume and roadside activity of several species of conservation interest both peak during the tourist season, our study indicates that the RADS has the potential to reduce the number of accidents during this period of heightened risk.

Optimism and challenge for science-based conservation of migratory species in and out of U.S. National Parks.

Public agencies sometimes seek outside guidance when capacity to achieve their mission is limited. Through a cooperative agreement and collaborations with the U.S. National Park Service (NPS), we developed recommendations for a conservation program for migratory species. Although NPS manages ∼ 36 million hectares of land and water in 401 units, there is no centralized program to conserve wild animals reliant on NPS units that also migrate hundreds to thousands of kilometers beyond parks. Migrations are imperiled by habitat destruction, unsustainable harvest, climate change, and other impediments. A successful program to counter these challenges requires public support, national and international outreach, and flourishing migrant populations. We recommended two initial steps. First, in the short term, launch or build on a suite of projects for high-profile migratory species that can serve as proof to demonstrate the centrality of NPS units to conservation at different scales. Second, over the longer term, build new capacity to conserve migratory species. Capacity building will entail increasing the limited knowledge among park staff about how and where species or populations migrate, conditions that enable migration, and identifying species' needs and resolving them both within and beyond parks. Building capacity will also require ensuring that park superintendents and staff at all levels support conservation beyond statutory borders. Until additional diverse stakeholders and a broader American public realize what can be lost and do more to protect it and engage more with land management agencies to implement actions that facilitate conservation, long distance migrations are increasingly likely to become phenomena of the past.

A vulnerability assessment of 300 species in Florida: threats from sea level rise, land use, and climate change.

Species face many threats, including accelerated climate change, sea level rise, and conversion and degradation of habitat from human land uses. Vulnerability assessments and prioritization protocols have been proposed to assess these threats, often in combination with information such as species rarity; ecological, evolutionary or economic value; and likelihood of success. Nevertheless, few vulnerability assessments or prioritization protocols simultaneously account for multiple threats or conservation values. We applied a novel vulnerability assessment tool, the Standardized Index of Vulnerability and Value, to assess the conservation priority of 300 species of plants and animals in Florida given projections of climate change, human land-use patterns, and sea level rise by the year 2100. We account for multiple sources of uncertainty and prioritize species under five different systems of value, ranging from a primary emphasis on vulnerability to threats to an emphasis on metrics of conservation value such as phylogenetic distinctiveness. Our results reveal remarkable consistency in the prioritization of species across different conservation value systems. Species of high priority include the Miami blue butterfly (Cyclargus thomasi bethunebakeri), Key tree cactus (Pilosocereus robinii), Florida duskywing butterfly (Ephyriades brunnea floridensis), and Key deer (Odocoileus virginianus clavium). We also identify sources of uncertainty and the types of life history information consistently missing across taxonomic groups. This study characterizes the vulnerabilities to major threats of a broad swath of Florida's biodiversity and provides a system for prioritizing conservation efforts that is quantitative, flexible, and free from hidden value judgments.

Threatened and endangered subspecies with vulnerable ecological traits also have high susceptibility to sea level rise and habitat fragmentation.

The presence of multiple interacting threats to biodiversity and the increasing rate of species extinction make it critical to prioritize management efforts on species and communities that maximize conservation success. We implemented a multi-step approach that coupled vulnerability assessments evaluating threats to Florida taxa such as climate change, sea-level rise, and habitat fragmentation with in-depth literature surveys of taxon-specific ecological traits. The vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and ecological traits of 12 threatened and endangered subspecies were compared to non-listed subspecies of the same parent species. Overall, the threatened and endangered subspecies showed high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, in particular to sea level rise and habitat fragmentation. They also exhibited larger home ranges and greater dispersal limitation compared to non-endangered subspecies, which may inhibit their ability to track changing climate in fragmented landscapes. There was evidence for lower reproductive capacity in some of the threatened or endangered taxa, but not for most. Taxa located in the Florida Keys or in other low coastal areas were most vulnerable to sea level rise, and also showed low levels of adaptive capacity, indicating they may have a lower probability of conservation success. Our analysis of at-risk subspecies and closely related non-endangered subspecies demonstrates that ecological traits help to explain observed differences in vulnerability and adaptive capacity. This study points to the importance of assessing the relative contributions of multiple threats and evaluating conservation value at the species (or subspecies) level when resources are limited and several factors affect conservation success.

The effectiveness of surrogate taxa for the representation of biodiversity.

Biodiversity is too complex to measure directly, so conservation planning must rely on surrogates to estimate the biodiversity of sites. The species richness of selected taxa is often used as a surrogate for the richness of other taxa. Surrogacy values of taxa have been evaluated in diverse contexts, yet broad trends in their effectiveness remain unclear. We reviewed published studies testing the ability of species richness of surrogate taxa to capture the richness of other (target) taxa. We stratified studies into two groups based on whether a complementarity approach (surrogates used to select a combination of sites that together maximize total species richness for the taxon) or a richness-hotspot approach (surrogates used to select sites containing the highest species richness for the taxon) was used. For each comparison of one surrogate taxon with one target, we used the following predictor variables: biome, spatial extent of study area, surrogate taxon, and target taxon. We developed a binary response variable based on whether the surrogate taxon provided better than random representation of the target taxon. For studies that used an evaluation approach that was not based on better than random representation of target taxa, we based the response variable on the interpretation of results in the original study. We performed a categorical regression to elucidate trends in the effectiveness of surrogate taxa with regard to each of the predictor variables. A surrogate was 25% more likely to be effective with a complementarity approach than with a hotspot approach. For hotspot-based approaches, biome, extent of study, surrogate taxon, and target taxon significantly influenced effectiveness of the surrogate. For complementarity-based approaches, biome, extent, and surrogate taxon significantly influenced effectiveness of the surrogate. For all surrogate evaluations, biome explained the greatest amount of variation in surrogate effectiveness. From most to least, extent, surrogate taxon, and target taxon explained the most variation after biome. Surrogate taxa were most effective in grasslands and in some cases boreal zones, deserts, and tropical forests; surrogate taxa also were more effective in studies examining larger areas. Herpetofauna were the most effective taxon as both surrogate and target when a richness-hotspot approach was used; however, herpetofauna were analyzed in fewer studies, so this result is tentative. For complementarity approaches, taxa that are easy to measure and tend to have a large number of habitat specialists distributed collectively across broad environmental gradients (e.g., plants, birds, and mammals) were the most effective surrogates.

Priorities for improving the scientific foundation of conservation policy in North America.

The Society for Conservation Biology (SCB) can enhance conservation of biodiversity in North America by increasing its engagement in public policy. Toward this end, the North America Section of SCB is establishing partnerships with other professional organizations in order to speak more powerfully to decision makers and taking other actions--such as increasing interaction with chapters--geared to engage members more substantively in science-policy issues. Additionally, the section is developing a North American Biodiversity Blueprint, which spans the continental United States and Canada and is informed by natural and social science. This blueprint is intended to clarify the policy challenges for protecting continental biodiversity, to foster bilateral collaboration to resolve common problems, and to suggest rational alternative policies and practices that are more likely than current practices to sustain North America's natural heritage. Conservation scientists and practitioners can play a key role by drawing policy makers' attention to ultimate, as well as proximate, causes of biodiversity decline and to the ecological and economic consequences of not addressing these threats.