Estimating the contribution of overweight and obesity to ethnic inequalities in cardio-metabolic diseases in the Netherlands: a simulation study.

OBJECTIVES: Overweight and obesity (OWOB) starts in childhood, influences adult cardiovascular risk, and is not equally distributed across ethnic groups. It is unclear which effects can be expected from reductions in OWOB across the life course on inequalities in cardio-metabolic diseases in a multi-ethnic population. This study aims to estimate the effects of three scenarios of changes in OWOB (the Normal-Weight-for-All scenario, the No-Ethnic-Difference-over-the-Life-Course scenario, the and No-Ethnic-Differences-in-Childhood scenario). STUDY DESIGN: A simulation study. METHODS: We combine data from multiple data sources and use the Dynamic Modeling for Health Impact Assessment (DYNAMO-HIA) model to estimate the effects of three scenarios on the cumulative incidence of diabetes mellitus, ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke between 18 and 70 years in the five largest ethnic groups in the Netherlands. RESULTS: In the scenario where all individuals have normal weight, the cumulative incidence decreased in all ethnic minority groups for all diseases, with largest decreases among South-Asian Surinamese, where the reduction of diabetes incidence exceeded 50%. In the scenario where the prevalence of OWOB in each ethnic-minority group was reduced to the current level among the Dutch-origin population, ethnic inequalities in cardio-metabolic diseases were substantially reduced, particularly when lowered prevalence of OWOB persisted across the lifespan. Reductions were the largest for diabetes and for the Asian Surinamese population. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial part of the well-known ethnic inequalities in incidence of diabetes, IHD, and stroke can be attributed to OWOB. Interventions aimed at reducing OWOB have clear potential to reduce the health inequalities in these outcomes, especially for diabetes, in particular when they have an impact across the lifespan.

[Homeless adults' most frequent cause of death is suicide or murder]. / Daklozen overlijden het vaakst door suïcide of moord.

OBJECTIVE: Get insight into excess mortality in the Rotterdam homeless population according to cause of death and changes in this mortality after introduction of social policies in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, in 2006. DESIGN: Uncontrolled before-and-after study. METHOD: We included homeless adults who visited the Rotterdam shelter in 2001 and followed them for 10 years (2001-2010). We then linked the data of this cohort to Statistics Netherlands mortality figures. We calculated the shares of specific mortality causes in total mortality for the entire study period. We used the 'standardised mortality ratio' (SMR) to compare mortality in the homeless cohort of this period with mortality figures of the general Rotterdam population. In order to be able to compare the homeless death rates according to cause of death in the period before (2001-2005) and after introduction of social policy measures (2006-2010), the hazard ratio (HR) was calculated. RESULTS: Our cohort consisted of 2130 homeless persons with a mean age of 40.3 years. The most important causes of death were unnatural death (26%; 95% CI: 21-32), cardiovascular diseases (22%; 17-27) and cancer (17%; 13-22). Suicide and murder together were responsible for 50% of the unnatural deaths. The largest differences in mortality in comparison with the Rotterdam population were those for unnatural death (SMR: 14.8; 95% CI: 11.5-18.7), infectious diseases (SMR: 10.0; 5.2-17.5) and psychiatric conditions (SMR: 7.7; 4.0-13.5). Mortality due to suicide or murder was significantly different for both study periods (HR: 0.45; 0.20-0.97). CONCLUSION: Prevention of unnatural deaths among the homeless should be one of the priorities in homeless policy. Improvement of their living conditions may reduce the number of murders and suicides in this vulnerable group.

Does the Impact of the Tobacco Epidemic Explain Structural Changes in the Decline of Mortality?

Since 1950, most developed countries have exhibited structural changes in mortality decline. This complicates extrapolative forecasts, such as the commonly used Lee-Carter model, that require the presence of a steady long-term trend. This study tests whether the impact of the tobacco epidemic explains the structural changes in mortality decline, as it is presumed in earlier studies. For this purpose, the time index of the Lee-Carter model in males was investigated in 20 developed countries between 1950 and 2011 for possible structural changes. It was found that removing the impact of smoking from mortality trends took away more than half of the 12 detected trend breaks. For the remaining trend breaks, adjusting for smoking attenuated the degree of change in mortality decline. Taking the tobacco epidemic into account should become standard procedure in mortality forecasts to avoid a misleading extrapolation of trends. Nevertheless, more research is needed to identify additional factors, such as health-care policies and innovations in medical treatment, to explain the remaining structural changes.

[Mortality due to chronic viral hepatitis B and C infections in the Netherlands]. / Sterfte aan chronische hepatitis B en C in Nederland.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality due to chronic hepatitis B-virus (HBV) and hepatitis C-virus (HCV) infections in the Netherlands from 2002 to 2015. DESIGN: A cross-sectional analysis based on cause-of-death statistics. METHOD: From Statistics Netherlands we obtained detailed data regarding the number of deaths per year in the following ICD-10 categories: chronic viral hepatitis; malignant neoplasm of the liver and intrahepatic bile ducts; fibrosis and cirrhosis of the liver; and alcoholic liver disease. We determined the population-attributable fractions (PAF) of HBV and HCV infections in mortality due to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and cirrhosis of the liver, and added these to the recorded mortality from viral hepatitis in order to calculate total mortality. We used Dutch research as a basis for allocation to HCC, and a range of PAFs from 3 studies for cirrhosis. Poisson regression was used to assess mortality trends over time and any differences in demographic characteristics. RESULTS: Around 500 Dutch people died annually of chronic viral hepatitis from 2002 to 2015, according to our 'middle' estimate; the 'lowest' estimate yields 340 and the 'highest' 600 people per year. The total mortality due to a chronic HBV and HCV infection did not change over time. The mortality for HCC due to viral hepatitis increased slightly over time and the mortality for cirrhosis decreased slightly. HCC mortality due to viral hepatitis was higher in Dutch people of non-western origin. CONCLUSION: Mortality from chronic viral hepatitis is mostly the result of cirrhosis of the liver and HCC. About 500 persons died annually from 2002 to 2015 from causes linked to viral hepatitis.

[We are living longer, but are these additional years spent in good health?]. / We leven langer, maar wat zijn dat voor jaren?

Life expectancy in western countries has increased continuously over recent years. The issue at stake is if this rise includes healthy years. The answer depends on the health indicator used, e.g., perceived health, disability, or cognitive impairment. A study by Jagger et al. (2016) provides evidence for an increase in life expectancy without cognitive impairment and an absolute compression of cognitive impairment between 1991 and 2011. Information on life expectancy without cognitive impairment is not yet available for the Netherlands. Similar to England, Dutch trends in life expectancy in excellent or good self-perceived health and in life expectancy without severe disability are favourable, although less pronouncedly so. Dutch and English data suggest that the additional years lived by the population are at least partly spent in good health.

A closer look at the role of healthcare in the recent mortality decline in the Netherlands: results of a record linkage study.

BACKGROUND: Since 2002, Dutch mortality rates decreased rapidly after decades of stagnation. On the basis of indirect evidence, previous research has suggested that this decline was due to a sudden expansion of healthcare. We tested two corollaries of this hypothesis--first, that the decline was concentrated among those with ill-health and second, that the decline can be statistically accounted for by increases in healthcare utilisation. METHODS: We linked the Dutch health interview survey to the mortality register and constructed two cohorts, consisting of 7691 persons interviewed in 2001/2002 and 8362 persons interviewed in 2007/2008, each with a 5-year mortality follow-up (659 deaths in total). The change in mortality between both cohorts was computed using Cox proportional hazard models. We estimated the change in mortality by severity of chronic conditions and with respect to the inclusion of indicators of healthcare utilisation. RESULTS: Between the two study cohorts, mortality declined by 15% (95% CI 2% to 29%), and mortality reduction was greatest for those suffering from fatal and non-fatal conditions with a decline of 58% (95% CI 35% to 78%). Even after adjustment for health status and risk factors, most indicators of healthcare utilisation were associated with higher instead of lower mortality and changes in healthcare utilisation did not explain the decline in mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Our results only partly confirm the hypothesis that an expansion of healthcare explains the recent mortality decline in the Netherlands. Owing to confounding by health status, it is difficult to reproduce the mortality-lowering effects of healthcare utilisation of individual level studies in the open population.

Modelling obesity outcomes: reducing obesity risk in adulthood may have greater impact than reducing obesity prevalence in childhood.

A common policy response to the rise in obesity prevalence is to undertake interventions in childhood, but it is an open question whether this is more effective than reducing the risk of becoming obese during adulthood. In this paper, we model the effect on health outcomes of (i) reducing the prevalence of obesity when entering adulthood; (ii) reducing the risk of becoming obese throughout adult life; and (iii) combinations of both approaches. We found that, while all approaches reduce the prevalence of chronic diseases and improve life expectancy, a given percentage reduction in obesity prevalence achieved during childhood had a smaller effect than the same percentage reduction in the risk of becoming obese applied throughout adulthood. A small increase in the probability of becoming obese during adulthood offsets a substantial reduction in prevalence of overweight/obesity achieved during childhood, with the gains from a 50% reduction in child obesity prevalence offset by a 10% increase in the probability of becoming obese in adulthood. We conclude that both policy approaches can improve the health profile throughout the life course of a cohort, but they are not equivalent, and a large reduction in child obesity prevalence may be reversed by a small increase in the risk of becoming overweight or obese in adulthood.

Socioeconomic inequalities in life and health expectancies around official retirement age in 10 Western-European countries.

BACKGROUND: Discussions on raising pension eligibility age focus more on improvement in life expectancy (LE) and health expectancy measures than on socioeconomic differences in these measures. Therefore, this study assesses the level of socioeconomic differences in these two measures in Western-Europe. METHODS: Data from seven annual waves (1995-2001) of the European Community Household Panel were used. Health and socioeconomic information was collected using standardised questionnaires. Health was measured in terms of disability in daily activities. Socioeconomic status was determined as education level at baseline. Multi-state Markov modelling was applied to obtain age-specific transition rates between health states for every country, educational level and gender. The multi-state life table method was used to estimate LE and disability free life expectancy (DFLE) according to country, educational level and gender. RESULTS: When comparing high and low educational levels, differences in partial DFLE between the ages 50 and 65 years were 2.1 years for men and 1.9 years for women. At age 65 years, for LE the difference between high and low educated groups was 3 years for men and 1.9 years for women, and for DFLE the difference between high and low educated groups was 4.6 years for men and 4.4 years for women. Similar patterns were observed in all countries, although inequalities tended to be greater in the southern countries. CONCLUSIONS: Educational inequalities, favouring the higher educated, exist on both sides of the retirement eligibility age. Higher educated persons live longer in good health before retirement and can expect to live longer afterwards.

Gender differences in health of EU10 and EU15 populations: the double burden of EU10 men.

This study compares gender differences in Healthy Life Years (HLY) and unhealthy life years (ULY) between the original (EU15) and new member states (EU10). Based on the number of deaths, population and prevalence of activity limitations from the Statistics of Living and Income Conditions Survey (SILC) survey, we calculated HLY and ULY for the EU10 and EU15 in 2006 with the Sullivan method. We used decomposition analysis to assess the contributions of mortality and disability and age to gender differences in HLY and ULY. HLY at age 15 for women in the EU10 were 3.1 years more than those for men at the same age, whereas HLY did not differ by gender in the EU15. In both populations ULY at age 15 for women exceeded those for men by 5.5 years. Decomposition showed that EU10 women had more HLY because higher disability in women only partially offset (-0.8 years) the effect of lower mortality (+3.9 years). In the EU15 women's higher disability prevalence almost completely offset women's lower mortality. The 5.3 fewer ULY in EU10 men than in EU10 women mainly reflected higher male mortality (4.5 years), while the fewer ULY in EU15 men than in EU15 women reflected both higher male mortality (2.9 years) and higher female disability (2.6 years). The absence of a clear gender gap in HLY in the EU15 thus masked important gender differences in mortality and disability. The similar size of the gender gap in ULY in the EU-10 and EU-15 masked the more unfavourable health situation of EU10 men, in particular the much stronger and younger mortality disadvantage in combination with the virtually absent disability advantage below age 65 in men.

[Compression of morbidity: a promising approach to alleviate the societal consequences of population ageing?]. / Compressie van morbiditeit: een veelbelovende benadering om de maatschappelijke consequenties van vergrijzing te verlichten?

There is an urgent need for strategies that alleviate the societal consequences of population ageing. A possible strategy is aiming for compression of morbidity. Some of the initial conditions for a compression of morbidity have been invalidated. This is, the life expectancy has shown a much stronger increase than was expected and the modal age at death has exceeded the age of 85. Additionally, trend studies have found no consistent evidence for a compression of morbidity. At the department of Public Health, we aim at identifying entry-points for a compression. For example, an analysis was performed on potential contributions of changes in exposure to life style factors (smoking, hypertension, physical inactivity and overweight/obesity) to compression of cardiovascular disease, using multi-state life tables with data from the Framingham Heart Study. It was shown that smoking and physical inactivity increased the incidence of cardiovascular disease, as well as mortality with and without cardiovascular disease. Hypertension and overweight mainly increased the incidence of cardiovascular disease and were associated with a shorter lifespan and more years with cardiovascular disease. Interventions on the latter risk factors will therefore increase the life expectancy, but will also result in a compression of morbidity. For policymakers and researchers it is important to find a mix of interventions that lead to a comparable overall effect.

Lifetime risk and projected population prevalence of diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: With incidence rates for diabetes increasing rapidly worldwide, estimates of the magnitude of the impact on population health are required. We aimed to estimate the lifetime risk of diabetes, the number of years lived free of, and the number of years lived with diabetes for the Australian adult population from the year 2000, and to project prevalence of diabetes to the year 2025. METHODS: Multi-state life-tables were constructed to simulate the progress of a cohort of 25-year-old Australians. National mortality rates were combined with incidence rates of diabetes and the RR of mortality in people with diabetes derived from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study (a national, population-based study of 11,247 adults aged >or=25 years). RESULTS: If the rates of mortality and diabetes incidence observed over the period 2000-2005 continue, 38.0% (95% uncertainty interval 36.6-38.9) of 25-year-olds would be expected to develop diabetes at some time throughout their life. On average, a 25-year-old Australian will live a further 56 years, 48 of these free of diabetes. On average, a 45-year-old person with diabetes can expect to live 6 years less than a person free of diabetes. The prevalence of diabetes is projected to rise from 7.6% in 2000 to 11.4% by 2025. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: If we maintain current diabetes incidence rates, more than a third of individuals will develop diabetes within their lifetime and in Australia there will an additional 1 million cases of diabetes by the year 2025.

The relation between non-occupational physical activity and years lived with and without disability.

OBJECTIVES: The effects of non-occupational physical activity were assessed on the number of years lived with and without disability between age 50 and 80 years. METHODS: Using the GLOBE study and the Longitudinal Study of Aging, multi-state life tables were constructed yielding the number of years with and without disability between age 50 and 80 years. To obtain life tables by level of physical activity (low, moderate, high), hazard ratios were derived for different physical activity levels per transition (non-disabled to disabled, non-disabled to death, disabled to non-disabled, disabled to death) adjusted for age, sex and confounders. RESULTS: Moderate, compared to low non-occupational physical activity reduced incidence of disability (HR 0.66, 95% CI 0.51 to 0.86), increased recovery (HR 1.95, 95% CI 1.32 to 2.87), and represents a gain of disability-free years and a loss of years with disability (male 3.1 and 1.2; female 4.0 and 2.8 years). Performing high levels of non-occupational physical activity further reduced incidence, and showed a higher gain in disability-free years (male 4.1; female 4.7), but a similar reduction in years with disability. CONCLUSION: Among 50-80-year-olds promoting physical activity is a fundamental factor to achieve healthy ageing.

Changes in the prevalence of chronic disease and the association with disability in the older Dutch population between 1987 and 2001.

BACKGROUND: most studies of older populations in developed countries show a decrease in the prevalence of disabilities, and an increase in chronic diseases over the past decades. Data in the Netherlands, however, mostly show an increase in the prevalence of chronic diseases and mixed results with regard to the prevalence of disability. This study aims at comparing changes in the prevalence, as well as the association between chronic diseases and disability between 1987 and 2001 in the older Dutch population using data representative of the general population. Most studies, so far, have only dealt with self-reported diseases, but in this study, we will use both self-reported and GP-registered diseases. STUDY DESIGN: data from the first (1987) and second (2001) Dutch National Survey of General Practice were used. In 1987, 103 general practices, compared to 104 in 2001, participated. Approximately 5% of the listed persons aged 18 years and over was asked to participate in an extensive health interview survey. An all-age random sample was drawn by the researchers from the patients listed in the participating practices (in 1987 n = 2, 708; in 2001 n = 3, 474). Both surveys are community based, with an age range between 55 and 97 years. Data on chronic diseases were based on GP registries and self-report. RESULTS: the prevalence of disability and of asthma/COPD, cardiac disease, stroke, and osteoarthritis decreased between 1987 and 2001, while the prevalence of diabetes increased. Changes were largely similar for GP-registered and self-reported diseases. Cardiac disease, asthma/COPD, and depression led to less disability, whereas low back pain and osteoarthritis led to more disability. CONCLUSIONS: in general, there were reductions in GP-registered chronic diseases as well as in self-reported diseases and disability. Results suggest that the disabling impact of fatal diseases decreased, while the impact of non-fatal diseases increased.

Determinants of levels and changes of physical functioning in chronically ill persons: results from the GLOBE Study.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Declines in physical functioning are a common result of chronic illness, but relatively little is known about factors not directly related to severity of disease that influence the occurrence of disability among chronically ill persons. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of a large number of potential determinants (sociodemographic factors, health related behaviour, structural living conditions, and psychosocial factors). DESIGN: Longitudinal study of levels and changes of physical functioning among persons suffering from four chronic diseases (asthma/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), heart disease, diabetes, chronic low back pain). In 1991, persons suffering from one or more of these diseases were identified in a general population survey. Self reported disabilities, using a subset of the OECD disability indicator, were measured six times between 1991 and 1997. These data were analysed using generalised estimating equations, relating determinants measured in 1991 to disability between 1991 and 1997, and controlling for a number of potential confounders (age, gender, year of measurement, and type and severity of chronic disease). SETTING: Region of Eindhoven (south eastern Netherlands). PARTICIPANTS: 1784 persons with asthma/COPD, heart disease, diabetes mellitus and/or low back pain. MAIN RESULTS: In a "repeated prevalence" model, statistically significant (p<0.05) and strong associations were found between most of the determinants and the prevalence of disabilities. In a "longitudinal change" model, statistically significant (p<0.05) predictors of unfavourable changes in physical functioning were low income and excessive alcohol consumption, while we also found indications for effects of marital status, degree of urbanisation, smoking, and external locus of control. CONCLUSIONS: Other factors than characteristics of the underlying disease have an important influence on levels and changes of physical functioning among chronically ill persons. Reduction of the prevalence of disabilities in the population not only depends on medical interventions, but may also require social interventions, health education, and psychological interventions among chronically ill persons.

Smoking and the compression of morbidity.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether eliminating smoking will lead to a reduction in the number of years lived with disability (that is, absolute compression of morbidity). DESIGN: Multistate life table calculations based on the longitudinal GLOBE study (the Netherlands) combined with the Longitudinal Study of Aging (LSOA, United States of America). SETTING: the Netherlands. SUBJECTS: Dutch nationals aged 30-74 years living in the city of Eindhoven and surrounding municipalities (GLOBE) and United States citizens age 70 and over (LSOA). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Life expectancy with and without disability and total life expectancy at ages 30 and 70. RESULTS: A non-smoking population on balance spends fewer years with disability than a mixed smoking-non-smoking population. Although non-smokers have lower mortality risks and thus are exposed to disability over a longer period of time, their lower incidence of disability and higher recovery from disability yield a net reduction of the length of time spent with disability (at age 30: -0.9 years in men and -1.1 years in women) and increases the length of time lived without disability (2.5 and 1.9 years, for men and women, respectively). These outcomes indicate that elimination of smoking will extend life and the period of disability free life, and will compress disability into a shorter period. CONCLUSIONS: Eliminating smoking will not only extend life and result in an increase in the number of years lived without disability, but will also compress disability into a shorter period. This implies that the commonly found trade off between longer life and a longer period with disability does not apply. Interventions to discourage smoking should receive high priority.

Lack of improvement of life expectancy at advanced ages in The Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: Several countries have reported an increase in life expectancy at advanced ages. This paper analyses recent changes in life expectancy at age 60 and 85 in The Netherlands, a low mortality country with reliable mortality data. METHODS: We used data on the population and the number of deaths by age, sex and underlying cause of death for 1970-1994. Life expectancy at age 60 and 85 was estimated using standard life-table techniques. The contribution of different ages and causes of death to the change in life expectancy during the 1970s (1970/74-1980/84) and the 1980s (1980/84-1990/94) were estimated with a decomposition technique developed by Arriaga. RESULTS: Life expectancy at age 60 increased in the 1970s and 1980s, whereas life expectancy at age 85 decreased (men) and stagnated (women) in the 1980s, and has decreased in both sexes since 1985/89. The decomposition by age showed that constant mortality rates in women aged 85-89, and increasing mortality rates at ages 85+ (men) and 90+ (women) have caused this lack of increase in life expectancy. The decomposition by cause of death showed that smaller mortality reductions from other cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, which contributed most to the increase in life expectancy at age 85 in the 1970s, and mortality increases from, amongst others, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), mental disorders and diabetes mellitus produced the decrease (men) and plateau (women) in life expectancy at age 85. CONCLUSIONS: Life expectancy at advanced ages stopped increasing during the 1980s in The Netherlands due to mortality increases at ages 85+ (men) and 90+ (women). Cause-specific trends suggest that, in addition to (past) smoking behaviour in men, changes in the distribution of morbidity and frailty in the population might have contributed to this stagnation.

The burden of mortality of diabetes mellitus in The Netherlands.

Our objective was to estimate the excess mortality and the reduction in life expectancy related to diabetes mellitus. We developed a life table to describe the Dutch population in two states, diabetic and non-diabetic, using age- and sex-specific prevalence of diabetes mellitus and risks of dying for diabetic subjects. We compared the calculated excess deaths with registered deaths. The cause-of-death registration practice underestimates diabetes-related mortality. The method used in this study, combining mortality data with data from epidemiologic studies, provides an assessment of the impact of diabetes on the Dutch population.

Preventing fatal diseases increases healthcare costs: cause elimination life table approach.

OBJECTIVES: To examine whether elimination of fatal diseases will increase healthcare costs. DESIGN: Mortality data from vital statistics combined with healthcare spending in a cause elimination life table. Costs were allocated to specific diseases through the various healthcare registers. SETTING AND SUBJECTS: The population of the Netherlands, 1988. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Healthcare costs of a synthetic life table cohort, expressed as life time expected costs. RESULTS: The life time expected healthcare costs for 1988 in the Netherlands were 56,600 Pounds for men and 80,900 Pounds for women. Elimination of fatal diseases--such as coronary heart disease, cancer, or chronic obstructive lung disease--increases healthcare costs. Major savings will be achieved only by elimination of non-fatal disease--such as musculoskeletal diseases and mental disorders. CONCLUSION: The aim of prevention is to spare people from avoidable misery and death not to save money on the healthcare system. In countries with low mortality, elimination of fatal diseases by successful prevention increases healthcare spending because of the medical expenses during added life years.

Rectangularization of the survival curve in The Netherlands: an analysis of underlying causes of death.

This study analyzed the contribution of selected causes of death to rectangularization of the survival curve of Dutch men and women above age 60 in the 1980s, and determined why rectangularization took place in the 1980s but not in the 1970s. The contribution of causes of death was determined by means of a decomposition analysis, using mortality data by underlying cause of death, sex, and age from Statistics Netherlands. Our results show that mortality reductions from ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases, and lung cancer (men only) and mortality increases from chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (men only) and mental disorders (women) contributed to rectangularization in the 1980s. Comparison with the 1970s, in addition, demonstrated that in particular changes in mortality at advanced ages (i.e., smaller mortality reductions and mortality increases) were responsible for the reversal from a decreasingly rectangular shape of the survival curve in the 1970s curve to rectangularization in the 1980s. The combination of increased survival to advanced ages and reduced survival at advanced ages explains why rectangularization of the survival curve took place recently in The Netherlands.