A decision support tool to help identify blue carbon sites for restoration.

Blue carbon ecosystems (BCEs), such as mangroves, saltmarshes, and seagrasses, are important nature-based solutions for climate change mitigation and adaptation but are threatened by degradation. Effective BCE restoration requires strategic planning and site selection to optimise outcomes. We developed a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based multi-criteria decision support tool to identify suitable areas for BCE restoration along the 2512 km-long coastline of Victoria, Australia. High-resolution spatial data on BCE distribution, coastal geomorphology, hydrodynamics, and land tenure were integrated into a flexible spatial model that distinguishes between passive and active restoration suitability. The tool was applied to identify high-priority locations for mangrove, saltmarsh, and seagrass restoration across different scenarios. Results indicate substantial potential for BCE restoration in Victoria, with 33,253 ha of suitable area identified, mostly (>97%) on public land, which aligned with the selection criteria used in the tool. Restoration opportunities are concentrated in bays and estuaries where historical losses have been significant. The mapped outputs provide a decision-support framework for regional restoration planning, while the tool itself can be adapted to other geographies. By integrating multiple spatial criteria and distinguishing between passive and active restoration, our approach offers a new method for targeting BCE restoration and informing resource allocation. The identified restoration potential will also require collaboration with coastal managers and communities, and consideration of socio-economic factors. With further refinements, such as incorporating multi-criteria decision analysis techniques, GIS-based tools can help catalyse strategic blue carbon investments and contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation goals at different spatial scales. This study highlights the value of spatial identification for BCE restoration and provides a transferable framework for other regions.

Mapping tidal restrictions to support blue carbon restoration.

Blue carbon ecosystems (BCEs), encompassing mangroves, saltmarshes, and seagrasses, are vital ecosystems that deliver valuable services such as carbon sequestration, biodiversity support, and coastal protection. However, these ecosystems are threatened by various anthropogenic factors, including tidal restrictions like levees, barriers, and embankments. These structures alter the natural seawater flow, often converting coastal ecosystems into freshwater environments. Identifying tidal restrictions and assessing their suitability for tidal restoration in areas amenable for coastal management is a crucial first step to successfully restore BCEs and the associated ecosystem services they provide, i.e., managed realignment. This study presents a novel approach for detecting tidal restrictions in the state of Victoria, Australia, using high-resolution LiDAR data, geospatial analysis techniques, and a multi-criteria scoring system. Our model successfully identified 90 % of known tidal restrictions from an existing dataset, while also detecting an additional 118 potential tidal restrictions, representing a 35 % increase. The model performance analysis revealed trade-offs between precision, recall, and noise ratio when using different noise reduction thresholds, highlighting the importance of selecting an appropriate threshold based on project objectives. The multi-criteria scoring system, which considered factors such as proximity to BCEs and current land use, enabled the selection of tidal restrictions based on their hydrological suitability for restoration. The results of this study have significant implications for BCE restoration efforts not only in Victoria, but more broadly across Australia and globally, providing a systematic approach to identifying and targeting areas with the greatest potential for successful restoration projects. While the approach is low-cost and user-friendly, it is dependent on the availability of LiDAR data for the study area. This can make it accessible to researchers and practitioners worldwide, allowing for its adaptation and application in diverse regions to support global efforts in restoring BCEs through tidal restoration.