Bellwethers of change: population modelling of North Pacific humpback whales from 2002 through 2021 reveals shift from recovery to climate response.

For the 40 years after the end of commercial whaling in 1976, humpback whale populations in the North Pacific Ocean exhibited a prolonged period of recovery. Using mark-recapture methods on the largest individual photo-identification dataset ever assembled for a cetacean, we estimated annual ocean-basin-wide abundance for the species from 2002 through 2021. Trends in annual estimates describe strong post-whaling era population recovery from 16 875 (± 5955) in 2002 to a peak abundance estimate of 33 488 (± 4455) in 2012. An apparent 20% decline from 2012 to 2021, 33 488 (± 4455) to 26 662 (± 4192), suggests the population abruptly reached carrying capacity due to loss of prey resources. This was particularly evident for humpback whales wintering in Hawai'i, where, by 2021, estimated abundance had declined by 34% from a peak in 2013, down to abundance levels previously seen in 2006, and contrasted to an absence of decline in Mainland Mexico breeding humpbacks. The strongest marine heatwave recorded globally to date during the 2014-2016 period appeared to have altered the course of species recovery, with enduring effects. Extending this time series will allow humpback whales to serve as an indicator species for the ecosystem in the face of a changing climate.

A collaborative and near-comprehensive North Pacific humpback whale photo-ID dataset.

We present an ocean-basin-scale dataset that includes tail fluke photographic identification (photo-ID) and encounter data for most living individual humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in the North Pacific Ocean. The dataset was built through a broad collaboration combining 39 separate curated photo-ID catalogs, supplemented with community science data. Data from throughout the North Pacific were aggregated into 13 regions, including six breeding regions, six feeding regions, and one migratory corridor. All images were compared with minimal pre-processing using a recently developed image recognition algorithm based on machine learning through artificial intelligence; this system is capable of rapidly detecting matches between individuals with an estimated 97-99% accuracy. For the 2001-2021 study period, a total of 27,956 unique individuals were documented in 157,350 encounters. Each individual was encountered, on average, in 5.6 sampling periods (i.e., breeding and feeding seasons), with an annual average of 87% of whales encountered in more than one season. The combined dataset and image recognition tool represents a living and accessible resource for collaborative, basin-wide studies of a keystone marine mammal in a time of rapid ecological change.

Interchanges and movements of humpback whales in Japanese waters: Okinawa, Ogasawara, Amami, and Hokkaido, using an automated matching system.

Humpback whales in the western North Pacific are considered endangered due to their small population size and lack of information. Although previous studies have reported interchanges between regions within a population, the relationship between the geographic regions of a population in Japan is poorly understood. Using 3,532 fluke photo IDs of unique individuals obtained from four areas in Japan: Hokkaido, six IDs (2009-2019); Ogasawara, 1,477 IDs, from two organizations (1) Everlasting nature of Asia (1987-2020) and (2) Ogasawara Whale Watching Association, (1990-2020); Amami, 373 IDs (1992-1994, 2005-2016); Okinawa, 1,676 IDs (1990-2018), interchanges were analyzed. The ID matchings were conducted using an automated system with an 80.9% matching accuracy. Interchange and within-region return indices were also calculated. As a result, number of matches and interchange indices follow locations, Hokkaido-Okinawa (3, 0.31), Amami-Ogasawara (36, 0.06), Amami-Okinawa (222, 0.37), and Okinawa-Ogasawara (225, 0.08), respectively. Interchange indices among Japanese areas were much higher than the indices between Ogasawara/Okinawa and Hawaii (0.01) and Mexico (0.00) reported in previous studies, indicating that the Japanese regions are utilized by the same population. At the same time, the frequency of interchanges among the three breeding areas vary, and the high within-region return indices in respective breeding areas suggest the site fidelity of the whales in each area at some level. These results indicate the existence of several groups within the population which are possibly be divided into at least two groups based on geographical features: one tend to utilize Ogasawara and the Mariana Archipelago; the other utilize Amami, Okinawa, and the Philippines, migrating along the Ryukyu and Philippine Trench. The matching results also suggest that Hokkaido is possibly be utilized as a corridor between northern feeding areas and southern breeding areas at least by individuals migrating to Okinawa area.

Distribution and Local Movement of Humpback Whales in Okinawan Waters Depend on Sex and Reproductive Status.

The distribution and local movement patterns of humpback whales in waters off the west coast of Okinawa Island, southwest Japan, were investigated using line transect and photo-identification methodologies. Line transect surveys were conducted from 2011 to 2014 and photo-identification survey from 2006 to 2012. During the surveys, humpback whales aggregated in the areas around Ie and Kerama Islands, and tended to travel along the inshore coast of Okinawa Island when they move locally between those two sites. A total of 496 humpback whales of the known sex were photo-identified (322 males, 75 females and 99 females with a calf). Of these, 24.8% were confirmed moving locally between the sites of Ie and Kerama Islands within the same season. Frequency rates of the local movement for males, females and females with a calf were 41.9, 25.0, and 15.1%, respectively; the frequency of local movement for males was significantly higher than that for females and females with a calf. These results indicate that male humpback whales tend to move more actively between the local breeding sites as compared to females and females with a calf. We speculate that the males search for more opportunities to mate, whereas females with a calf tend to remain in the same areas to nurse their calves. These findings extend our knowledge of the habitat use and reproductive ecology of humpback whales in Okinawan waters, which remain poorly understood.