High-Risk Regions of African Swine Fever Infection in Mozambique.

African swine fever (ASF) is a transboundary infectious disease that can infect wild and domestic swine and requires enhanced surveillance between countries. In Mozambique, ASF has been reported across the country, spreading between provinces, mainly through the movement of pigs and their by-products. Subsequently, pigs from bordering countries were at risk of exposure. This study evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution and temporal trends of ASF in swine in Mozambique between 2000 and 2020. During this period, 28,624 cases of ASF were reported across three regions of the country. In total, the northern, central, and southern regions presented 64.9, 17.8, and 17.3% of the total cases, respectively. When analyzing the incidence risk (IR) of ASF per 100,000 pigs, the Cabo Delgado province had the highest IR (17,301.1), followed by the Maputo province (8868.6). In the space-time analysis, three clusters were formed in each region: (i) Cluster A involved the provinces of Cabo Delgado and Nampula (north), (ii) Cluster B involved the province of Maputo and the city of Maputo (south), and (iii) Cluster C consisted of the provinces of Manica and Sofala (central) in 2006. However, when analyzing the temporal trend in the provinces, most were found to be decreasing, except for Sofala, Inhambane, and Maputo, which had a stationary trend. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate the spatial distribution of ASF in Mozambique. These findings will contribute to increasing official ASF control programs by identifying high-risk areas and raising awareness of the importance of controlling the borders between provinces and countries to prevent their spread to other regions of the world.

Geographical and temporal spread of equine rabies in Brazil.

In Brazil, the horse is frequently used in cultural activities, sports, and in rural and urban work, implementing the economy in different social classes. Among the diseases in horses with zoonotic potential, rabies has been neglected in the country, increasing the risk of spreading the disease across borders. The present study evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution and temporal trend of rabies in horses in Brazil between 2010 and 2019. During this period, 1290 cases of rabies were detected in horses in Brazil, mainly in the states of São Paulo (21.7%) and Mato Grosso (13.3%). However, Espírito Santo stood out, with an incidence risk (IR) of 139.7 cases of rabies per 100,000 horses. The years 2013 and 2017 had higher peaks of IR for the disease, and the states that contributed to this increase were Mato Grosso, São Paulo, and Espírito Santo. There was no monthly seasonality of the disease among the states. The temporal trend revealed an increase for the northeastern region (Annual Percentage Change [APC]: 8.9%) and for Alagoas State (APC: 26.6%). In the spatiotemporal analysis, three high-risk clusters were formed: (i) cluster A (Relative Risk [RRs]: 6.21), involving only Minas Gerais, between 2017 and 2019; (ii) cluster B (RRs: 6.18), involving only Mato Grosso, between 2011 and 2013; and (iii) cluster C (RRs:4.71), involving the states of Rio de Janeiro and Espírito Santo, between 2010 and 2014. Only the states of Roraima and Amapá had no cases of equine rabies during the study period. Therefore, rabies in horses occurs in all Brazilian regions, with areas at high risk of infection concentrated in the Southeast. However, attention should be directed to the north-eastern and northern states, where notifications were infrequent, with an unknown risk in relation to the spread of rabies to transboundary regions. This is the first study evaluating the interstate distribution of rabies in equine species in regions of Brazil.