RESUMO
Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing costs billions of dollars per year and is enabled by vessels obfuscating their identity. Here, we combine identities of ~35,000 vessels with a decade of GPS data to provide a global assessment of fishing compliance, reflagging patterns, and fishing by foreign-owned vessels. About 17% of high seas fishing is by potentially unauthorized or internationally unregulated vessels, with hot spots of this activity in the west Indian and the southwest Atlantic Oceans. In addition, reflagging, a tactic often used to obscure oversight, occurs in just a few ports primarily by fleets with high foreign ownership. Fishing by foreign-owned vessels is concentrated in parts of high seas and certain national waters, often flying flags of convenience. These findings can address the global scope of potential IUU fishing and enable authorities to improve oversight.
RESUMO
Predictive models are central to many scientific disciplines and vital for informing management in a rapidly changing world. However, limited understanding of the accuracy and precision of models transferred to novel conditions (their 'transferability') undermines confidence in their predictions. Here, 50 experts identified priority knowledge gaps which, if filled, will most improve model transfers. These are summarized into six technical and six fundamental challenges, which underlie the combined need to intensify research on the determinants of ecological predictability, including species traits and data quality, and develop best practices for transferring models. Of high importance is the identification of a widely applicable set of transferability metrics, with appropriate tools to quantify the sources and impacts of prediction uncertainty under novel conditions.