Observational evidence of European summer weather patterns predictable from spring.

Forecasts of summer weather patterns months in advance would be of great value for a wide range of applications. However, seasonal dynamical model forecasts for European summers have very little skill, particularly for rainfall. It has not been clear whether this low skill reflects inherent unpredictability of summer weather or, alternatively, is a consequence of weaknesses in current forecast systems. Here we analyze atmosphere and ocean observations and identify evidence that a specific pattern of summertime atmospheric circulation--the summer East Atlantic (SEA) pattern--is predictable from the previous spring. An index of North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures in March-April can predict the SEA pattern in July-August with a cross-validated correlation skill above 0.6. Our analyses show that the sea-surface temperatures influence atmospheric circulation and the position of the jet stream over the North Atlantic. The SEA pattern has a particularly strong influence on rainfall in the British Isles, which we find can also be predicted months ahead with a significant skill of 0.56. Our results have immediate application to empirical forecasts of summer rainfall for the United Kingdom, Ireland, and northern France and also suggest that current dynamical model forecast systems have large potential for improvement.

The mystery of recent stratospheric temperature trends.

A new data set of middle- and upper-stratospheric temperatures based on reprocessing of satellite radiances provides a view of stratospheric climate change during the period 1979-2005 that is strikingly different from that provided by earlier data sets. The new data call into question our understanding of observed stratospheric temperature trends and our ability to test simulations of the stratospheric response to emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances. Here we highlight the important issues raised by the new data and suggest how the climate science community can resolve them.

Analyzing UV-B narrowband solar irradiance: comparison with erythemal and vitamin D production irradiances.

The heliotherapy and the phototherapy are mainly focused on taking benefit of the therapeutic effects of the ultraviolet (UV) irradiance on different skin diseases. The use of UV-B narrowband lamps, with emissions centered at 311 nm, has spread out among the dermatologist community because of its high therapeutic effect in comparison with its low erythema dose. For cloudless sun exposure, the balance of solar erythemal and solar narrowband (NB)-equivalent irradiances depends on several factors such as the solar zenith angle (SZA), the total ozone column (TOC) and the altitude. For SZA below 55°, the ratio of solar UV-B narrowband and erythemal irradiances increases with the SZA whereas the ratio of vitamin D production and erythemal irradiances decreases with the SZA with the maximum around midday. Furthermore, the solar NB ratio also increases with the TOC because the shorter wavelengths of the erythemal action spectrum are more affected by the ozone absorption processes. Considering the daily variations of the ratio between narrowband and erythemal irradiance, sun exposures avoiding midday hours are recommended in order to prevent negative side-effects. However to accumulate great NB doses and sufficient vitamin D in winter months is difficult because the time exposures may be longer than the day duration.