Provenance of Anthropogenic Pb and Atmospheric Dust to Northwestern North America.

Industrial activities release aerosols containing toxic metals into the atmosphere, where they are transported far from their sources, impacting ecosystems and human health. Concomitantly, long-range-transported mineral dust aerosols play a role in Earth's radiative balance and supply micronutrients to iron-limited ecosystems. To evaluate the sources of dust and pollutant aerosols to Alaska following the 2001 phase-out of leaded gasoline in China, we measured Pb-Sr-Nd isotopic compositions of particles collected in 2016 from snow pits across an elevational transect (2180-5240 m-a.s.l) in Denali National Park, USA. We also determined Pb flux and enrichment from 1991-2011 in the Denali ice core (3870 m-a.s.l). Chinese coal-burning and non-ferrous metal smelting account for up to 64% of Pb deposition at our sites, a value consistent across the western Arctic. Pb isotope ratios in the aerosols did not change between 2001 and 2016, despite the ban on lead additives. Emissions estimates demonstrate that industrial activities have more than compensated for the phase-out of leaded gasoline, with China emitting ∼37,000 metric tons year-1 of Pb during 2013-2015, approximately 78% of the Pb from East Asia. The Pb flux to Alaska now equals that measured in southern Greenland during peak pollution from North America.

Modeling the Sensitivity of Blacklegged Ticks (Ixodes scapularis) to Temperature and Land Cover in the Northeastern United States.

The prevalence of Lyme disease and other tick-borne diseases is dramatically increasing across the United States. While the rapid rise in Lyme disease is clear, the causes of it are not. Modeling Ixodes scapularis Say (Acari: Ixodidae), the primary Lyme disease vector in the eastern United States, presents an opportunity to disentangle the drivers of increasing Lyme disease, including climate, land cover, and host populations. We improved upon a recently developed compartment model of ordinary differential equations that simulates I. scapularis growth, abundance, and infection with Borrelia burgdorferi (Spirochaetales: Spirochaetaceae) by adding land cover effects on host populations, refining the representation of growth stages, and evaluating output against observed data. We then applied this model to analyze the sensitivity of simulated I. scapularis dynamics across temperature and land cover in the northeastern United States. Specifically, we ran an ensemble of 232 simulations with temperature from Hanover, New Hampshire and Storrs, Connecticut, and land cover from Hanover and Cardigan in New Hampshire, and Windsor and Danielson in Connecticut. Consistent with observations, simulations of I. scapularis abundance are sensitive to temperature, with the warmer Storrs climate significantly increasing the number of questing I. scapularis at all growth stages. While there is some variation in modeled populations of I. scapularis infected with B. burgdorferi among land cover distributions, our analysis of I. scapularis response to land cover is limited by a lack of observations describing host populations, the proportion of hosts competent to serve as B. burgdorferi reservoirs, and I. scapularis abundance.

Volcanic glass properties from 1459 C.E. volcanic event in South Pole ice core dismiss Kuwae caldera as a potential source.

A large volcanic sulfate increase observed in ice core records around 1450 C.E. has been attributed in previous studies to a volcanic eruption from the submarine Kuwae caldera in Vanuatu. Both EPMA-WDS (electron microprobe analysis using a wavelength dispersive spectrometer) and SEM-EDS (scanning electron microscopy analysis using an energy dispersive spectrometer) analyses of five microscopic volcanic ash (cryptotephra) particles extracted from the ice interval associated with a rise in sulfate ca. 1458 C.E. in the South Pole ice core (SPICEcore) indicate that the tephra deposits are chemically distinct from those erupted from the Kuwae caldera. Recognizing that the sulfate peak is not associated with the Kuwae volcano, and likely not a large stratospheric tropical eruption, requires revision of the stratospheric sulfate injection mass that is used for parameterization of paleoclimate models. Future work is needed to confirm that a volcanic eruption from Mt. Reclus is one of the possible sources of the 1458 C.E. sulfate anomaly in Antarctic ice cores.

Effect of Rising Temperature on Lyme Disease: Ixodes scapularis Population Dynamics and Borrelia burgdorferi Transmission and Prevalence.

Warmer temperatures are expected to increase the incidence of Lyme disease through enhanced tick maturation rates and a longer season of transmission. In addition, there could be an increased risk of disease export because of infected mobile hosts, usually birds. A temperature-driven seasonal model of Borrelia burgdorferi (Lyme disease) transmission among four host types is constructed as a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The model is developed and parametrized based on a collection of lab and field studies. The model is shown to produce biologically reasonable results for both the tick vector (Ixodes scapularis) and the hosts when compared to a different set of studies. The model is used to predict the response of Lyme disease risk to a mean annual temperature increase, based on current temperature cycles in Hanover, NH. Many of the risk measures suggested by the literature are shown to change with increased mean annual temperature. The most straightforward measure of disease risk is the abundance of infected questing ticks, averaged over a year. Compared to this measure, which is difficult and resource-intensive to track in the field, all other risk measures considered underestimate the rise of risk with rise in mean annual temperature. The measure coming closest was "degree days above zero." Disease prevalence in ticks and hosts showed less increase with rising temperature. Single field measurements at the height of transmission season did not show much change at all with rising temperature.

Pronounced summer warming in northwest Greenland during the Holocene and Last Interglacial.

Projections of future rates of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet are highly uncertain because its sensitivity to warming is unclear. Geologic reconstructions of Quaternary interglacials can illustrate how the ice sheet responded during past warm periods, providing insights into ice sheet behavior and important tests for data-model comparisons. However, paleoclimate records from Greenland are limited: Early Holocene peak warmth has been quantified at only a few sites, and terrestrial sedimentary records of prior interglacials are exceptionally rare due to glacial erosion during the last glacial period. Here, we discuss findings from a lacustrine archive that records both the Holocene and the Last Interglacial (LIG) from Greenland, allowing for direct comparison between two interglacials. Sedimentary chironomid assemblages indicate peak July temperatures 4.0 to 7.0 °C warmer than modern during the Early Holocene maximum in summer insolation. Chaoborus and chironomids in LIG sediments indicate July temperatures at least 5.5 to 8.5 °C warmer than modern. These estimates indicate pronounced warming in northwest Greenland during both interglacials. This helps explain dramatic ice sheet thinning at Camp Century in northwest Greenland during the Early Holocene and, for the LIG, aligns with controversial estimates of Eemian warming from ice core data retrieved in northern Greenland. Converging geologic evidence for strong LIG warming is challenging to reconcile with inferred Greenland Ice Sheet extent during the LIG, and the two appear incompatible in many models of ice sheet evolution. An increase in LIG snowfall could help resolve this problem, pointing to the need for hydroclimate reconstructions from the region.

Determination of Osmium Concentration and Isotope Composition at Ultra-low Level in Polar Ice and Snow.

Here we use two chemical separation procedures to determine exceptionally low Os concentrations (∼10-15 g g-1) and Os isotopic composition in polar snow/ice. Approximately 50 g of meltwater is spiked with 190Os tracer solution and frozen at -20 °C in quartz-glass ampules. A mixture of H2O2 and HNO3 is then added, and the sample is heated to 300 °C at 100 bar. This allows tracer Os to be equilibrated with the sample as all Os species are oxidized to OsO4. The resulting OsO4 is separated using either distillation (Method-I) or solvent-extraction (Method-II), purified, and measured using negative thermal ionization mass spectrometry (N-TIMS). A new technique is presented that minimizes Re and Os blanks of the Pt filaments used in N-TIMS. We analyze snow collected from Summit, Greenland during 2009, 2014, and 2017. We find that the average Os concentration of the snow is 0.459 ± 0.018 (95% C.I.) fg g-1 corresponding to an Os flux of 0.0579 ± 0.0023 (95% C.I.) fmol cm-2 yr-1. The average R(187Os/188Os) ratio of the Summit snow is 0.264 ± 0.026 (95% C.I.). Assuming that the volcanic source is negligible, the average ratio indicates that about 0.0518 ± 0.0040 (95% C.I.) fmol cm-2 yr-1 of Os is of cosmic derivation, corresponding to an accretion rate of extra-terrestrial Os to the Earth of 264 ± 21 mol yr-1.

Industrial-age doubling of snow accumulation in the Alaska Range linked to tropical ocean warming.

Future precipitation changes in a warming climate depend regionally upon the response of natural climate modes to anthropogenic forcing. North Pacific hydroclimate is dominated by the Aleutian Low, a semi-permanent wintertime feature characterized by frequent low-pressure conditions that is influenced by tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures through the Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern. Instrumental records show a recent increase in coastal Alaskan precipitation and Aleutian Low intensification, but are of insufficient length to accurately assess low frequency trends and forcing mechanisms. Here we present a 1200-year seasonally- to annually-resolved ice core record of snow accumulation from Mt. Hunter in the Alaska Range developed using annual layer counting and four ice-flow thinning models. Under a wide range of glacier flow conditions and layer counting uncertainty, our record shows a doubling of precipitation since ~1840 CE, with recent values exceeding the variability observed over the past millennium. The precipitation increase is nearly synchronous with the warming of western tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. While regional 20th Century warming may account for a portion of the observed precipitation increase on Mt. Hunter, the magnitude and seasonality of the precipitation change indicate a long-term strengthening of the Aleutian Low.

TOTAL AND EXTREME PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

The Northeastern United States has experienced a large increase in precipitation over recent decades. Annual and seasonal changes of total and extreme precipitation from station observations in the Northeast are assessed over multiple time periods spanning 1901-2014. Spatially averaged, both annual total and extreme precipitation across the Northeast have increased significantly since 1901, with changepoints occurring in 2002 and 1996, respectively. Annual extreme precipitation has experienced a larger increase than total precipitation; extreme precipitation from 1996-2014 was 53% higher than from 1901-1995. Spatially, coastal areas received more total and extreme precipitation on average, but increases across the changepoints are distributed fairly uniformly across the domain. Increases in annual total precipitation across the 2002 changepoint have been driven by significant total precipitation increases in fall and summer, while increases in annual extreme precipitation across the 1996 changepoint have been driven by significant extreme precipitation increases in fall and spring. The ability of gridded observed and reanalysis precipitation data to reproduce station observations was also evaluated. Gridded observations perform well in reproducing averages and trends of annual and seasonal total precipitation, but extreme precipitation trends show significantly different spatial and domain-averaged trends than station data. North American Regional Reanalysis generally underestimates annual and seasonal total and extreme precipitation means and trends relative to station observations, and also shows substantial differences in the spatial pattern of total and extreme precipitation trends within the Northeast.

Ice Core Perspective on Mercury Pollution during the Past 600 Years.

Past emissions of the toxic metal mercury (Hg) persist in the global environment, yet these emissions remain poorly constrained by existing data. Ice cores are high-resolution archives of atmospheric deposition that may provide crucial insight into past atmospheric Hg levels during recent and historical time. Here we present a record of total Hg (HgT) in an ice core from the pristine summit plateau (5340 m asl) of Mount Logan, Yukon, Canada, representing atmospheric deposition from AD 1410 to 1998. The Colonial Period (∼1603-1850) and North American "Gold Rush" (1850-1900) represent minor fractions (8% and 14%, respectively) of total anthropogenic Hg deposition in the record, with the majority (78%) occurring during the 20th Century. A period of maximum HgT fluxes from 1940 to 1975 coincides with estimates of enhanced anthropogenic Hg emissions from commercial sources, as well as with industrial emissions of other toxic metals. Rapid declines in HgT fluxes following peaks during the Gold Rush and the mid-20th Century indicate that atmospheric Hg deposition responds quickly to reductions in emissions. Increasing HgT fluxes from 1993 until the youngest samples in 1998 may reflect the resurgence of Hg emissions from unregulated coal burning and small-scale gold mining.

Continuous ice core melter system with discrete sampling for major ion, trace element and stable isotope analyses.

We present a novel ice/firn core melter system that uses fraction collectors to collect discrete, high-resolution (<1 cm/sample possible), continuous, coregistered meltwater samples for analysis of eight major ions by ion chromatography (IC), >32 trace elements by inductively coupled plasma sectorfield mass spectrometry (ICP-SMS), and stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopes by isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS). The new continuous melting with discrete sampling (CMDS) system preserves an archive of each sample, reduces the problem of incomplete particle dissolution in ICP-SMS samples, and provides more precise trace element data than previous ice melter models by using longer ICP-SMS scan times and washing the instrument between samples. CMDS detection limits are similar to or lower than those published for ice melter systems coupled directly to analytical instruments and are suitable for analyses of polar and mid-low-latitude ice cores. Analysis of total calcium and sulfur by ICP-SMS and calcium ion, sulfate, and methanesulfonate by IC from the Mt. Logan Prospector-Russell Col ice core confirms data accuracy and coregistration of the split fractions from each sample. The reproducibility of all data acquired by the CMDS system is confirmed by replicate analyses of parallel sections of the GISP2 D ice core.