Key tropical crops at risk from pollinator loss due to climate change and land use.

Insect pollinator biodiversity is changing rapidly, with potential consequences for the provision of crop pollination. However, the role of land use-climate interactions in pollinator biodiversity changes, as well as consequent economic effects via changes in crop pollination, remains poorly understood. We present a global assessment of the interactive effects of climate change and land use on pollinator abundance and richness and predictions of the risk to crop pollination from the inferred changes. Using a dataset containing 2673 sites and 3080 insect pollinator species, we show that the interactive combination of agriculture and climate change is associated with large reductions in insect pollinators. As a result, it is expected that the tropics will experience the greatest risk to crop production from pollinator losses. Localized risk is highest and predicted to increase most rapidly, in regions of sub-Saharan Africa, northern South America, and Southeast Asia. Via pollinator loss alone, climate change and agricultural land use could be a risk to human well-being.

Agriculture and climate change are reshaping insect biodiversity worldwide.

Several previous studies have investigated changes in insect biodiversity, with some highlighting declines and others showing turnover in species composition without net declines1-5. Although research has shown that biodiversity changes are driven primarily by land-use change and increasingly by climate change6,7, the potential for interaction between these drivers and insect biodiversity on the global scale remains unclear. Here we show that the interaction between indices of historical climate warming and intensive agricultural land use is associated with reductions of almost 50% in the abundance and 27% in the number of species within insect assemblages relative to those in less-disturbed habitats with lower rates of historical climate warming. These patterns are particularly evident in the tropical realm, whereas some positive responses of biodiversity to climate change occur in non-tropical regions in natural habitats. A high availability of nearby natural habitat often mitigates reductions in insect abundance and richness associated with agricultural land use and substantial climate warming but only in low-intensity agricultural systems. In such systems, in which high levels (75% cover) of natural habitat are available, abundance and richness were reduced by 7% and 5%, respectively, compared with reductions of 63% and 61% in places where less natural habitat is present (25% cover). Our results show that insect biodiversity will probably benefit from mitigating climate change, preserving natural habitat within landscapes and reducing the intensity of agriculture.

Grand challenges in biodiversity-ecosystem functioning research in the era of science-policy platforms require explicit consideration of feedbacks.

Feedbacks are an essential feature of resilient socio-economic systems, yet the feedbacks between biodiversity, ecosystem services and human wellbeing are not fully accounted for in global policy efforts that consider future scenarios for human activities and their consequences for nature. Failure to integrate feedbacks in our knowledge frameworks exacerbates uncertainty in future projections and potentially prevents us from realizing the full benefits of actions we can take to enhance sustainability. We identify six scientific research challenges that, if addressed, could allow future policy, conservation and monitoring efforts to quantitatively account for ecosystem and societal consequences of biodiversity change. Placing feedbacks prominently in our frameworks would lead to (i) coordinated observation of biodiversity change, ecosystem functions and human actions, (ii) joint experiment and observation programmes, (iii) more effective use of emerging technologies in biodiversity science and policy, and (iv) a more inclusive and integrated global community of biodiversity observers. To meet these challenges, we outline a five-point action plan for collaboration and connection among scientists and policymakers that emphasizes diversity, inclusion and open access. Efforts to protect biodiversity require the best possible scientific understanding of human activities, biodiversity trends, ecosystem functions and-critically-the feedbacks among them.

Using the IUCN Red List to map threats to terrestrial vertebrates at global scale.

The Anthropocene is characterized by unparalleled human impact on other species, potentially ushering in the sixth mass extinction. Yet mitigation efforts remain hampered by limited information on the spatial patterns and intensity of the threats driving global biodiversity loss. Here we use expert-derived information from the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List on threats to 23,271 species, representing all terrestrial amphibians, birds and mammals, to generate global maps of the six major threats to these groups: agriculture, hunting and trapping, logging, pollution, invasive species, and climate change. Our results show that agriculture and logging are pervasive in the tropics and that hunting and trapping is the most geographically widespread threat to mammals and birds. Additionally, current representations of human pressure underestimate the overall pressure on biodiversity, due to the exclusion of threats such as hunting and climate change. Alarmingly, this is particularly the case in areas of the highest biodiversity importance.

Patterns of invertebrate functional diversity highlight the vulnerability of ecosystem services over a 45-year period.

Declines in invertebrate biodiversity1,2 pose a significant threat to key ecosystem services.3-5 Current analyses of biodiversity often focus on taxonomic diversity (e.g., species richness),6,7 which does not account for the functional role of a species. Functional diversity of species' morphological or behavioral traits is likely more relevant to ecosystem service delivery than taxonomic diversity, as functional diversity has been found to be a key driver of a number of ecosystem services including decomposition and pollination.8-12 At present, we lack a good understanding of long-term and large-scale changes in functional diversity, which limits our capacity to determine the vulnerability of key ecosystem services with ongoing biodiversity change. Here we derive trends in functional diversity and taxonomic diversity over a 45-year period across Great Britain for species supporting freshwater aquatic functions, pollination, natural pest control, and agricultural pests (a disservice). Species supporting aquatic functions showed a synchronous collapse and recovery in functional and taxonomic diversity. In contrast, pollinators showed an increase in taxonomic diversity, but a decline and recovery in functional diversity. Pest control agents and pests showed greater stability in functional diversity over the assessment period. We also found that functional diversity could appear stable or show patterns of recovery, despite ongoing changes in the composition of traits among species. Our results suggest that invertebrate assemblages can show considerable variability in their functional structure over time at a national scale, which provides an important step in determining the long-term vulnerability of key ecosystem services with ongoing biodiversity change.

Global effects of land-use intensity on local pollinator biodiversity.

Pollinating species are in decline globally, with land use an important driver. However, most of the evidence on which these claims are made is patchy, based on studies with low taxonomic and geographic representativeness. Here, we model the effect of land-use type and intensity on global pollinator biodiversity, using a local-scale database covering 303 studies, 12,170 sites, and 4502 pollinating species. Relative to a primary vegetation baseline, we show that low levels of intensity can have beneficial effects on pollinator biodiversity. Within most anthropogenic land-use types however, increasing intensity is associated with significant reductions, particularly in urban (43% richness and 62% abundance reduction compared to the least intensive urban sites), and pasture (75% abundance reduction) areas. We further show that on cropland, the strongly negative response to intensity is restricted to tropical areas, and that the direction and magnitude of response differs among taxonomic groups. Our findings confirm widespread effects of land-use intensity on pollinators, most significantly in the tropics, where land use is predicted to change rapidly.

Complex long-term biodiversity change among invertebrates, bryophytes and lichens.

Large-scale biodiversity changes are measured mainly through the responses of a few taxonomic groups. Much less is known about the trends affecting most invertebrates and other neglected taxa, and it is unclear whether well-studied taxa, such as vertebrates, reflect changes in wider biodiversity. Here, we present and analyse trends in the UK distributions of over 5,000 species of invertebrates, bryophytes and lichens, measured as changes in occupancy. Our results reveal substantial variation in the magnitude, direction and timing of changes over the last 45 years. Just one of the four major groups analysed, terrestrial non-insect invertebrates, exhibits the declining trend reported among vertebrates and butterflies. Both terrestrial insects and the bryophytes and lichens group increased in average occupancy. A striking pattern is found among freshwater species, which have undergone a strong recovery since the mid-1990s after two decades of decline. We show that, while average occupancy among most groups appears to have been stable or increasing, there has been substantial change in the relative commonness and rarity of individual species, indicating considerable turnover in community composition. Additionally, large numbers of species have experienced substantial declines. Our results suggest a more complex pattern of biodiversity change in the United Kingdom than previously reported.

Annual estimates of occupancy for bryophytes, lichens and invertebrates in the UK, 1970-2015.

Here, we determine annual estimates of occupancy and species trends for 5,293 UK bryophytes, lichens, and invertebrates, providing national scale information on UK biodiversity change for 31 taxonomic groups for the time period 1970 to 2015. The dataset was produced through the application of a Bayesian occupancy modelling framework to species occurrence records supplied by 29 national recording schemes or societies (n = 24,118,549 records). In the UK, annual measures of species status from fine scale data (e.g. 1 × 1 km) had previously been limited to a few taxa for which structured monitoring data are available, mainly birds, butterflies, bats and a subset of moth species. By using an occupancy modelling framework designed for use with relatively low recording intensity data, we have been able to estimate species trends and generate annual estimates of occupancy for taxa where annual trend estimates and status were previously limited or unknown at this scale. These data broaden our knowledge of UK biodiversity and can be used to investigate variation in and drivers of biodiversity change.

Climate and land-use change homogenise terrestrial biodiversity, with consequences for ecosystem functioning and human well-being.

Biodiversity continues to decline under the effect of multiple human pressures. We give a brief overview of the main pressures on biodiversity, before focusing on the two that have a predominant effect: land-use and climate change. We discuss how interactions between land-use and climate change in terrestrial systems are likely to have greater impacts than expected when only considering these pressures in isolation. Understanding biodiversity changes is complicated by the fact that such changes are likely to be uneven among different geographic regions and species. We review the evidence for variation in terrestrial biodiversity changes, relating differences among species to key ecological characteristics, and explaining how disproportionate impacts on certain species are leading to a spatial homogenisation of ecological communities. Finally, we explain how the overall losses and homogenisation of biodiversity, and the larger impacts upon certain types of species, are likely to lead to strong negative consequences for the functioning of ecosystems, and consequently for human well-being.

The effects of crop diversity and crop type on biological diversity in agricultural landscapes: a systematic review protocol.

Agricultural intensification is a well-known driver of biodiversity loss. Crop diversity and its changes over space and time drive land use intensity and impact biodiversity of agricultural landscapes, while meeting the growing demand for human food and nutrition resources. Loss of biodiversity in agricultural landscapes reduces primary productivity and soil health and erodes a range of other ecosystem services. At present, while having partial understanding of many processes, we lack a general synthesis of our knowledge of the links between crop diversity and biodiversity. We will therefore conduct a systematic review by searching multiple agriculture, ecology and environmental science databases (e.g. Web of Science, Geobase, Agris, AGRICOLA, GreenFILE) to identify studies reporting the impacts of crop diversity and crop type on the biological diversity of fauna and flora in agricultural landscapes. Response variables will include metrics of species richness, abundance, assemblage, community composition and species rarity. Screening, data coding and data extraction will be carried out by one researcher and a subset will be independently carried out by a second researcher for quality control. Study quality and risk of bias will be assessed. Evidence will first be mapped to species/taxa then assessed for further narrative or statistical synthesis based on comparability of results and likely robustness. Gaps in the evidence base will also be identified with a view toward future research and policy directions for nutrition, food systems and ecology.