Predicting early death in older adults with cancer.

BACKGROUND: Predicting early death after a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) is very difficult in clinical practice. The aim of this study was to develop a scoring system to estimate risk of death at 100 days in elderly cancer patients to assist the therapeutic decision. METHODS: This was a multicentric, prospective cohort study approved by an ethics committee. Elderly cancer patients aged older than 70 years were enrolled before the final therapeutic decision. A standardised CGA was made before the treatment decision at baseline. Within 100 days, event (death), oncologic and geriatric data were collected. Multivariate logistic regression was used to select the risk factors for the overall population. Score points were assigned to each risk factor using the ß coefficient. Internal validation was performed by a bootstrap method. Calibration was assessed with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test and accuracy with the mean c-statistic. FINDINGS: One thousand fifty patients (mean age: 82 years) joined the study from April 2012 to December 2014. The independent predictors were metastatic cancers (odds ratio [OR] 2.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], [1.7-3.5] p<0 .001); gait speed<0.8 m/s (OR 2.1; 95% CI [1.3-3.3] p=0.001); Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) < 17 (OR 8; 95% CI; [3.7-17.3] p<0.001), MNA ≤23.5 and ≥ 17 (OR 4.4; 95% CI, [2.1-9.1) p<0.001); performance status (PS) > 2 (OR 1.7; 95% CI, [1.1-2.6)] p=0.015) and cancers other than breast cancer (OR 4; 95% CI, [2.1-7.9] p<0.001). We attributed 4 points for MNA<17, 3 points for MNA between ≤23.5 and ≥ 17, 2 points for metastatic cancers, 1 point for gait speed <0.8 m/s, 1 point for PS > 2 and 3 points for cancers other than breast cancer. The risk of death at 100 days was 4% for 0 to 6 points, 24% for 7 to 8 points, 39% for 9 to 10 points and 67% for 11 points. INTERPRETATION: To our knowledge, this is the first score which estimates early death in elderly cancer patients. The system could assist in the treatment decision for elderly cancer patients.

Assessment of D-Dimers for the Early Prediction of Complications in Acute Pancreatitis.

OBJECTIVES: Severe acute pancreatitis (AP) is characterized by early microcirculation defects causing hypercoagulability. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the early predictive value of D-dimers in complicated AP. METHODS: This was a prospective single-center study conducted between September 2010 and April 2012. All patients had AP for less than 48 hours duration at admission. The plasma D-dimer level was determined at admission and every 12 hours over 3 days and compared to other validated severity criteria. RESULTS: Of 71 patients admitted with AP, 36 (53.1%) developed complicated AP. A threshold D-dimer level greater than 1474 ng/mL at 48 hours after pain onset was predictive of complications with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.76. Combining D-dimers and C-reactive protein levels at 48 hours increased the prediction of complications (AUC of 0.83). At 36 hours, D-dimers greater than 1474 ng/mL predicted the occurrence of complications with an AUC of 0.75. CONCLUSIONS: D-Dimer levels were predictive of complications of AP as early as 36 hours after the onset of pain. This simple and reproducible marker might be useful in clinical practice to improve the early management of complicated AP.