Patterns of childhood body mass index (BMI), overweight and obesity in South Asian and black participants in the English National child measurement programme: effect of applying BMI adjustments standardising for ethnic differences in BMI-body fatness associations.

BACKGROUND: The National Child Measurement Programme (NCMP) records weight and height and assesses overweight-obesity patterns in English children using body mass index (BMI), which tends to underestimate body fatness in South Asian children and overestimate body fatness in Black children of presumed African ethnicity. Using BMI adjustments to ensure that adjusted BMI was similarly related to body fatness in South Asian, Black and White children, we reassessed population overweight and obesity patterns in these ethnic groups in NCMP. METHODS: Analyses were based on 2012-2013 NCMP data in 582 899 children aged 4-5 years and 485 362 children aged 10-11 years. Standard centile-based approaches defined weight status in each age group before and after applying BMI adjustments for English South Asian and Black children derived from previous studies using the deuterium dilution method. FINDINGS: Among White children, overweight-obesity prevalences (boys, girls) were 23% and 21%, respectively, in 4-5 year olds and 33% and 30%, respectively, in 10-11 year olds. Before adjustment, South Asian children had lower overweight-obesity prevalences at 4-5 years (19%, 19%) and slightly higher prevalences at 10-11 years (42%, 34%), whereas Black children had higher overweight-obesity prevalences both at 4-5 years (31%, 29%) and 10-11 years (42%, 45%). Following adjustment, overweight-obesity prevalences were markedly higher in South Asian children both at 4-5 years (39%, 35%) and at 10-11 years (52%, 44%), whereas Black children had lower prevalences at 4-5 years (11%, 12%); at 10-11 years, prevalences were slightly lower in boys (32%) but higher in girls (35%). INTERPRETATION: BMI adjustments revealed extremely high overweight-obesity prevalences among South Asian children in England, which were not apparent in unadjusted data. In contrast, after adjustment, Black children had lower overweight-obesity prevalences except among older girls. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation, NIHR CLAHRC (South London), NIHR CLAHRC (North Thames).

Automated arteriole and venule classification using deep learning for retinal images from the UK Biobank cohort.

The morphometric characteristics of the retinal vasculature are associated with future risk of many systemic and vascular diseases. However, analysis of data from large population based studies is needed to help resolve uncertainties in some of these associations. This requires automated systems that extract quantitative measures of vessel morphology from large numbers of retinal images. Associations between retinal vessel morphology and disease precursors/outcomes may be similar or opposing for arterioles and venules. Therefore, the accurate detection of the vessel type is an important element in such automated systems. This paper presents a deep learning approach for the automatic classification of arterioles and venules across the entire retinal image, including vessels located at the optic disc. This comprises of a convolutional neural network whose architecture contains six learned layers: three convolutional and three fully-connected. Complex patterns are automatically learnt from the data, which avoids the use of hand crafted features. The method is developed and evaluated using 835,914 centreline pixels derived from 100 retinal images selected from the 135,867 retinal images obtained at the UK Biobank (large population-based cohort study of middle aged and older adults) baseline examination. This is a challenging dataset in respect to image quality and hence arteriole/venule classification is required to be highly robust. The method achieves a significant increase in accuracy of 8.1% when compared to the baseline method, resulting in an arteriole/venule classification accuracy of 86.97% (per pixel basis) over the entire retinal image.

Body mass index adjustments to increase the validity of body fatness assessment in UK Black African and South Asian children.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Body mass index (BMI) (weight per height2) is the most widely used marker of childhood obesity and total body fatness (BF). However, its validity is limited, especially in children of South Asian and Black African origins. We aimed to quantify BMI adjustments needed for UK children of Black African and South Asian origins so that adjusted BMI related to BF in the same way as for White European children. METHODS: We used data from four recent UK studies that made deuterium dilution BF measurements in UK children of White European, South Asian and Black African origins. A height-standardized fat mass index (FMI) was derived to represent BF. Linear regression models were then fitted, separately for boys and girls, to quantify ethnic differences in BMI-FMI relationships and to provide ethnic-specific BMI adjustments. RESULTS: We restricted analyses to 4-12 year olds, to whom a single consistent FMI (fat mass per height5) could be applied. BMI consistently underestimated BF in South Asians, requiring positive BMI adjustments of +1.12 kg m-2 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.83, 1.41 kg m-2; P<0.0001) for boys and +1.07 kg m-2 (95% CI: 0.74, 1.39 kg m-2; P<0.0001) for girls of all age groups and FMI levels. BMI overestimated BF in Black Africans, requiring negative BMI adjustments for Black African children. However, these were complex because there were statistically significant interactions between Black African ethnicity and FMI (P=0.004 boys; P=0.003 girls) and also between FMI and age group (P<0.0001 for boys and girls). BMI adjustments therefore varied by age group and FMI level (and indirectly BMI); the largest adjustments were in younger children with higher unadjusted BMI and the smallest in older children with lower unadjusted BMI. CONCLUSIONS: BMI underestimated BF in South Asians and overestimated BF in Black Africans. Ethnic-specific adjustments, increasing BMI in South Asians and reducing BMI in Black Africans, can improve the accuracy of BF assessment in these children.

Simple tests for the diagnosis of childhood obesity: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

There is a need to accurately quantify levels of adiposity in order to identify overweight and obesity in children. This systematic review aimed to identify all diagnostic accuracy studies evaluating simple tests for obesity and adiposity, including body mass index (BMI), skin-fold thickness and waist circumference, compared against high-quality reference tests. Twenty-four cohort studies including 25,807 children were included. BMI had good performance when diagnosing obesity: a sensitivity of 81.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 73.0 to 93.8) for a specificity of 96.0% (95% CI: 93.8 to 98.1). It was less effective at diagnosing overweight (sensitivity: 76.3%, 95% CI: 70.2 to 82.4; specificity: 92.1% 95% CI: 90.0 to 94.3). When diagnosing obesity, waist circumference had similar performance (sensitivity: 83.8%; specificity: 96.5%). Skin-fold thickness had slightly poorer performance (sensitivity: 72.5%; specificity: 93.7%). Few studies considered any other tests. There was no conclusive evidence that any test was generally superior to the others. BMI is a good simple diagnostic test for identifying childhood adiposity. It identifies most genuinely obese and adipose children while misclassifying only a small number as obese. There was no conclusive evidence that any test should be preferred to BMI, and the extra complexity of skin-fold thickness tests does not appear to improve diagnostic accuracy.

Cross-sectional study of ethnic differences in physical fitness among children of South Asian, black African-Caribbean and white European origin: the Child Heart and Health Study in England (CHASE).

OBJECTIVE: Little is known about levels of physical fitness in children from different ethnic groups in the UK. We therefore studied physical fitness in UK children (aged 9-10 years) of South Asian, black African-Caribbean and white European origin. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Primary schools in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: 1625 children (aged 9-10 years) of South Asian, black African-Caribbean and white European origin in the UK studied between 2006 and 2007. OUTCOME MEASURES: A step test assessed submaximal physical fitness from which estimated VO2 max was derived. Ethnic differences in estimated VO2 max were estimated using multilevel linear regression allowing for clustering at school level and adjusting for age, sex and month as fixed effects. RESULTS: The study response rate was 63%. In adjusted analyses, boys had higher levels of estimated VO2 max than girls (mean difference 3.06 mL O2/min/kg, 95% CI 2.66 to 3.47, p<0.0001). Levels of estimated VO2 max were lower in South Asians than those in white Europeans (mean difference -0.79 mL O2/min/kg, 95% CI -1.41 to -0.18, p=0.01); levels of estimated VO2 max in black African-Caribbeans were higher than those in white Europeans (mean difference 0.60 mL O2/min/kg, 95% CI 0.02 to 1.17, p=0.04); these patterns were similar in boys and girls. The lower estimated VO2 max in South Asians, compared to white Europeans, was consistent among Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi children and was attenuated by 78% after adjustment for objectively measured physical activity (average daily steps). CONCLUSIONS: South Asian children have lower levels of physical fitness than white Europeans and black African-Caribbeans in the UK. This ethnic difference in physical fitness is at least partly explained by ethnic differences in physical activity.

Automated retinal image quality assessment on the UK Biobank dataset for epidemiological studies.

Morphological changes in the retinal vascular network are associated with future risk of many systemic and vascular diseases. However, uncertainty over the presence and nature of some of these associations exists. Analysis of data from large population based studies will help to resolve these uncertainties. The QUARTZ (QUantitative Analysis of Retinal vessel Topology and siZe) retinal image analysis system allows automated processing of large numbers of retinal images. However, an image quality assessment module is needed to achieve full automation. In this paper, we propose such an algorithm, which uses the segmented vessel map to determine the suitability of retinal images for use in the creation of vessel morphometric data suitable for epidemiological studies. This includes an effective 3-dimensional feature set and support vector machine classification. A random subset of 800 retinal images from UK Biobank (a large prospective study of 500,000 middle aged adults; where 68,151 underwent retinal imaging) was used to examine the performance of the image quality algorithm. The algorithm achieved a sensitivity of 95.33% and a specificity of 91.13% for the detection of inadequate images. The strong performance of this image quality algorithm will make rapid automated analysis of vascular morphometry feasible on the entire UK Biobank dataset (and other large retinal datasets), with minimal operator involvement, and at low cost.

Fruit, vegetable and vitamin C intakes and plasma vitamin C: cross-sectional associations with insulin resistance and glycaemia in 9-10 year-old children.

AIM: To examine whether low circulating vitamin C concentrations and low fruit and vegetable intakes were associated with insulin resistance and other Type 2 diabetes risk markers in childhood. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional, school-based study in 2025 UK children aged 9-10 years, predominantly of white European, South-Asian and black African origin. A 24-h dietary recall was used to assess fruit, vegetable and vitamin C intakes. Height, weight and fat mass were measured and a fasting blood sample collected to measure plasma vitamin C concentrations and Type 2 diabetes risk markers. RESULTS: In analyses adjusting for confounding variables (including socio-economic status), a one interquartile range higher plasma vitamin C concentration (30.9 µmol/l) was associated with a 9.6% (95% CI 6.5, 12.6%) lower homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance value, 0.8% (95% CI 0.4, 1.2%) lower fasting glucose, 4.5% (95% CI 3.2, 5.9%) lower urate and 2.2% (95% CI 0.9, 3.4%) higher HDL cholesterol. HbA1c concentration was 0.6% (95% CI 0.2, 1.0%) higher. Dietary fruit, vegetable and total vitamin C intakes were not associated with any Type 2 diabetes risk markers. Lower plasma vitamin C concentrations in South-Asian and black African-Caribbean children could partly explain their higher insulin resistance. CONCLUSIONS: Lower plasma vitamin C concentrations are associated with insulin resistance and could partly explain ethnic differences in insulin resistance. Experimental studies are needed to establish whether increasing plasma vitamin C can help prevent Type 2 diabetes at an early stage.

Childhood obesity as a predictor of morbidity in adulthood: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Obese children are at higher risk of being obese as adults, and adult obesity is associated with an increased risk of morbidity. This systematic review and meta-analysis investigates the ability of childhood body mass index (BMI) to predict obesity-related morbidities in adulthood. Thirty-seven studies were included. High childhood BMI was associated with an increased incidence of adult diabetes (OR 1.70; 95% CI 1.30-2.22), coronary heart disease (CHD) (OR 1.20; 95% CI 1.10-1.31) and a range of cancers, but not stroke or breast cancer. The accuracy of childhood BMI when predicting any adult morbidity was low. Only 31% of future diabetes and 22% of future hypertension and CHD occurred in children aged 12 or over classified as being overweight or obese. Only 20% of all adult cancers occurred in children classified as being overweight or obese. Childhood obesity is associated with moderately increased risks of adult obesity-related morbidity, but the increase in risk is not large enough for childhood BMI to be a good predictor of the incidence of adult morbidities. This is because the majority of adult obesity-related morbidity occurs in adults who were of healthy weight in childhood. Therefore, targeting obesity reduction solely at obese or overweight children may not substantially reduce the overall burden of obesity-related disease in adulthood.

Predicting adult obesity from childhood obesity: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed to investigate the ability of simple measures of childhood obesity such as body mass index (BMI) to predict future obesity in adolescence and adulthood. Large cohort studies, which measured obesity both in childhood and in later adolescence or adulthood, using any recognized measure of obesity were sought. Study quality was assessed. Studies were pooled using diagnostic meta-analysis methods. Fifteen prospective cohort studies were included in the meta-analysis. BMI was the only measure of obesity reported in any study, with 200,777 participants followed up. Obese children and adolescents were around five times more likely to be obese in adulthood than those who were not obese. Around 55% of obese children go on to be obese in adolescence, around 80% of obese adolescents will still be obese in adulthood and around 70% will be obese over age 30. Therefore, action to reduce and prevent obesity in these adolescents is needed. However, 70% of obese adults were not obese in childhood or adolescence, so targeting obesity reduction solely at obese or overweight children needs to be considered carefully as this may not substantially reduce the overall burden of adult obesity.

Automated retinal vessel recognition and measurements on large datasets.

The characteristics of the retinal vascular network have been prospectively associated with many systemic and vascular diseases. QUARTZ is a fully automated software that has been developed to localize and quantify the morphological characteristics of blood vessels in retinal images for use in epidemiological studies. This software was used to analyse a dataset containing 16,000 retinal images from the EPIC-Norfolk cohort study. The objective of this paper is to both assess the suitability of this dataset for computational analysis and to further evaluate the QUARTZ software.

Quantification of blood vessel calibre in retinal images of multi-ethnic school children using a model based approach.

Changes and variation in retinal vessel width are related to vascular risk factors and prospectively related to cardiovascular disease in later life. Hence, assessment of vessel width may be a useful physio-marker and potential predictor of cardiovascular status. However, measurement of vessel calibre from retinal images is a challenging process to automate. This paper proposes an automated system to measure vessel calibre in retinal images, which is demonstrated in images of multi-ethnic school children. The diameter measurement is based on the detection of the centreline pixels from a vessel probability map image, determining the vessel orientation at these pixels, extracting the vessel segments and later using a two-dimensional model, which is optimized to fit various types of intensity profiles of vessel segments. The width is then estimated from parameters of the optimized model. The method is also quantitatively analyzed using monochromatic representations of different colour spaces. The algorithm is evaluated on a recently introduced public database CHASE_DB1, which is a subset of retinal images of multi-ethnic children from the Child Heart and Health Study in England (CHASE) dataset. Moreover, the precise estimation of retinal vascular widths is critical for epidemiologists to identify the risk factors. This work also introduces an interactive software tool for epidemiologists, with which retinal vessel calibre can be precisely marked.

Blood vessel segmentation methodologies in retinal images--a survey.

Retinal vessel segmentation algorithms are a fundamental component of automatic retinal disease screening systems. This work examines the blood vessel segmentation methodologies in two dimensional retinal images acquired from a fundus camera and a survey of techniques is presented. The aim of this paper is to review, analyze and categorize the retinal vessel extraction algorithms, techniques and methodologies, giving a brief description, highlighting the key points and the performance measures. We intend to give the reader a framework for the existing research; to introduce the range of retinal vessel segmentation algorithms; to discuss the current trends and future directions and summarize the open problems. The performance of algorithms is compared and analyzed on two publicly available databases (DRIVE and STARE) of retinal images using a number of measures which include accuracy, true positive rate, false positive rate, sensitivity, specificity and area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

An approach to localize the retinal blood vessels using bit planes and centerline detection.

The change in morphology, diameter, branching pattern or tortuosity of retinal blood vessels is an important indicator of various clinical disorders of the eye and the body. This paper reports an automated method for segmentation of blood vessels in retinal images. A unique combination of techniques for vessel centerlines detection and morphological bit plane slicing is presented to extract the blood vessel tree from the retinal images. The centerlines are extracted by using the first order derivative of a Gaussian filter in four orientations and then evaluation of derivative signs and average derivative values is performed. Mathematical morphology has emerged as a proficient technique for quantifying the blood vessels in the retina. The shape and orientation map of blood vessels is obtained by applying a multidirectional morphological top-hat operator with a linear structuring element followed by bit plane slicing of the vessel enhanced grayscale image. The centerlines are combined with these maps to obtain the segmented vessel tree. The methodology is tested on three publicly available databases DRIVE, STARE and MESSIDOR. The results demonstrate that the performance of the proposed algorithm is comparable with state of the art techniques in terms of accuracy, sensitivity and specificity.

Sampling and measurement methods for a study of childhood refractive error in a UK population.

BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of data describing the prevalence of childhood refractive error in the United Kingdom. The Northern Ireland Childhood Errors of Refraction study, along with its sister study the Aston Eye Study, are the first population-based surveys of children using both random cluster sampling and cycloplegic autorefraction to quantify levels of refractive error in the United Kingdom. METHODS: Children aged 6-7 years and 12-13 years were recruited from a stratified random sample of primary and post-primary schools, representative of the population of Northern Ireland as a whole. Measurements included assessment of visual acuity, oculomotor balance, ocular biometry and cycloplegic binocular open-field autorefraction. Questionnaires were used to identify putative risk factors for refractive error. RESULTS: 399 (57%) of 6-7 years and 669 (60%) of 12-13 years participated. School participation rates did not vary statistically significantly with the size of the school, whether the school is urban or rural, or whether it is in a deprived/non-deprived area. The gender balance, ethnicity and type of schooling of participants are reflective of the Northern Ireland population. CONCLUSIONS: The study design, sample size and methodology will ensure accurate measures of the prevalence of refractive errors in the target population and will facilitate comparisons with other population-based refractive data.

Refractive error and visual impairment in school children in Northern Ireland.

AIMS: To describe the prevalence of refractive error (myopia and hyperopia) and visual impairment in a representative sample of white school children. METHODS: The Northern Ireland Childhood Errors of Refraction study, a population-based cross-sectional study, examined 661 white 12-13-year-old and 392 white 6-7-year-old children between 2006 and 2008. Procedures included assessment of monocular logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution (logMAR), visual acuity (unaided and presenting) and binocular open-field cycloplegic (1% cyclopentolate) autorefraction. Myopia was defined as -0.50DS or more myopic spherical equivalent refraction (SER) in either eye, hyperopia as > or =+2.00DS SER in either eye if not previously classified as myopic. Visual impairment was defined as >0.30 logMAR units (equivalent to 6/12). RESULTS: Levels of myopia were 2.8% (95% CI 1.3% to 4.3%) in younger and 17.7% (95% CI 13.2% to 22.2%) in older children: corresponding levels of hyperopia were 26% (95% CI 20% to 33%) and 14.7% (95% CI 9.9% to 19.4%). The prevalence of presenting visual impairment in the better eye was 3.6% in 12-13-year-old children compared with 1.5% in 6-7-year-old children. Almost one in four children fails to bring their spectacles to school. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first to provide robust population-based data on the prevalence of refractive error and visual impairment in Northern Irish school children. Strategies to improve compliance with spectacle wear are required.

Physical activity, obesity and cardiometabolic risk factors in 9- to 10-year-old UK children of white European, South Asian and black African-Caribbean origin: the Child Heart And health Study in England (CHASE).

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Physical inactivity is implicated in unfavourable patterns of obesity and cardiometabolic risk in childhood. However, few studies have quantified these associations using objective physical activity measurements in children from different ethnic groups. We examined these associations in UK children of South Asian, black African-Caribbean and white European origin. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study of 2,049 primary school children in three UK cities, who had standardised anthropometric measurements, provided fasting blood samples and wore activity monitors for up to 7 days. Data were analysed using multilevel linear regression and allowing for measurement error. RESULTS: Overall physical activity levels showed strong inverse graded associations with adiposity markers (particularly sum of skinfold thicknesses), fasting insulin, HOMA insulin resistance, triacylglycerol and C-reactive protein; for an increase of 100 counts of physical activity per min of registered time, levels of these factors were 12.2% (95% CI 10.2-14.1%), 10.2% (95% CI 7.5-12.8%), 10.2% (95% CI 7.5-12.8%), 5.8% (95% CI 4.0-7.5%) and 19.2% (95% CI 13.9-24.2%) lower, respectively. Similar increments in physical activity levels were associated with lower diastolic blood pressure (1.0 mmHg, 95% CI 0.6-1.5 mmHg) and LDL-cholesterol (0.04 mmol/l, 95% CI 0.01-0.07 mmol/l), and higher HDL-cholesterol (0.02 mmol/l, 95% CI 0.01-0.04 mmol/l). Moreover, associations were broadly similar in strength in all ethnic groups. All associations between physical activity and cardiometabolic risk factors were reduced (albeit variably) after adjustment for adiposity. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Objectively measured physical activity correlates at least as well with obesity and cardiometabolic risk factors in South Asian and African-Caribbean children as in white European children, suggesting that efforts to increase activity levels in such groups would have equally beneficial effects.

Nutritional composition of the diets of South Asian, black African-Caribbean and white European children in the United Kingdom: the Child Heart and Health Study in England (CHASE).

In the UK, South Asian adults have increased risks of CHD, type 2 diabetes and central obesity. Black African-Caribbeans, in contrast, have increased risks of type 2 diabetes and general obesity but lower CHD risk. There is growing evidence that these risk differences emerge in early life and that nutritional factors may be important. We have therefore examined the variations in nutritional composition of the diets of South Asian, black African-Caribbean and white European children, using 24 h recalls of dietary intake collected during a cross-sectional survey of cardiovascular health in eighty-five primary schools in London, Birmingham and Leicester. In all, 2209 children aged 9-10 years took part, including 558 of South Asian, 560 of black African-Caribbean and 543 of white European ethnicity. Compared with white Europeans, South Asian children reported higher mean total energy intake; their intakes of total fat, polyunsaturated fat and protein (both absolute and as proportions of total energy intake) were higher and their intakes of carbohydrate as a proportion of energy (particularly sugars), vitamin C and D, Ca and haem Fe were lower. These differences were especially marked for Bangladeshi children. Black African-Caribbean children had lower intakes of total and saturated fat (both absolute and as proportions of energy intake), NSP, vitamin D and Ca. The lower total and saturated fat intakes were particularly marked among black African children. Appreciable ethnic differences exist in the nutritional composition of children's diets, which may contribute to future differences in chronic disease risk.

Is body mass index before middle age related to coronary heart disease risk in later life? Evidence from observational studies.

OBJECTIVE: Although obesity beginning early in life is becoming more common, its implications for coronary heart disease (CHD) risk in later life remain uncertain. We examined the relationship of body mass index (BMI) before 30 years of age to CHD risk in later life. DESIGN: Systematic review of published studies relating BMI between age 2 and 30 years to later CHD risk. Studies were identified using Medline (1950 onwards), Embase (1980 onwards) and Web of Science (1970 onwards) databases (to November 2007). MEASUREMENTS: Relative risks (RR) of CHD associated with a 1 standard deviation (s.d.) higher BMI (most based on a narrow age range at measurement) were extracted by two authors independently, and combined using random-effect models. RESULTS: A total of 15 studies provided 17 estimates (731 337 participants, 23 894 CHD events) of the association of early BMI to later CHD outcome. BMI in early childhood (2-6 years, 3 estimates) showed a weak inverse association with CHD risk (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.82-1.07). BMI in later childhood (7 to <18 years, 7 estimates) and BMI in early adult life (18-30 years, 7 estimates) were both positively related to later CHD risk (RR 1.09, 95% CI 1.00-1.20; RR 1.19, 95% CI 1.11-1.29 respectively). However, there was considerable statistical heterogeneity between study estimates. Results were unaffected by adjustment for social class and/or cigarette smoking, blood pressure and/or total cholesterol, in studies with available data. Gender and year of birth (1900-1976) had little effect on the association. CONCLUSIONS: BMI is positively related to CHD risk from childhood onwards; the associations in young adults are consistent with those observed in middle age. Long-term control of BMI from childhood may be important to reduce the risk of CHD.

Persistency with medical treatment for glaucoma and ocular hypertension in the United Kingdom: 1994-2005.

PURPOSE: To examine trends and demographic factors affecting persistence with ocular hypotensive therapy, from a period before prostaglandins were available to when they were the most common therapy. METHODS: Computerised patient records from 94 general practices across the United Kingdom, identified 5670 registered patients newly prescribed an ocular hypotensive drug (1993-2005). Persistence was defined as continuing therapy without a 90-day gap in prescription for (i) any ocular hypotensive and (ii) initial monotherapy. Time to failure with the treatment was compared using proportional hazard analyses, adjusted for age, gender, practice, year of initial treatment, and a sociodemographic indicator. Study findings were set in the context of a review of the literature. RESULTS: Percentage persistent at 1-year rose after 1997 when prostaglandins were introduced; from 61% in 1994-1996 to 70% in 2002-2004. Persistence with any treatment did not differ between those initiated on beta-blockers compared to prostaglandins (1.05, 95% CI 0.93-1.17). However, 20% of subjects initiated on beta-blockers received a prostaglandin by 1 year. Conversely, 8% of those initiated on prostaglandins received a beta-blocker. When failure with initial therapy was considered, beta-blockers appeared worse (1.35, 95% CI 1.21-1.50); this was consistent with findings from six studies in the review (1.40, 95% CI 1.34-1.46). Neither gender nor social factors were associated with persistence, but younger subjects (35-64 years) were significantly more likely to fail as were those over 85 years. CONCLUSIONS: Introduction of prostaglandins may explain an improvement in persistence over a decade. However, whether the higher cost of initiating patients on prostaglandins is justified remains questionable unless clinically indicated.