Projecting the effect of climate change on residential property damages caused by extreme weather events.

New Zealand's public insurer for natural hazards, the Earthquake Commission (EQC), provides residential insurance for some weather-related damage. Climate change and the expected increase in intensity and frequency of extreme weather-related events are likely to translate into higher damages and thus an additional financial liability for the EQC. We project future insured damages from extreme precipitation events associated with future projected climatic change. We first estimate the empirical relationship between extreme precipitation events and the EQC's weather-related insurance claims based on a complete dataset of all claims from 2000 to 2017. We then use this estimated relationship, together with climate projections based on future greenhouse gases concentration scenarios from six different dynamically downscaled Regional Climate Models, to predict the impact of future extreme precipitation events on EQC liabilities for different time horizons up to the year 2100. Our results show predicted adverse impacts that vary over time and space. The percent change between projected and past damages-the climate change signal-ranges between an increase of 7%-8% in liabilities for the period 2020 to 2040, and between 9% and 25% higher for the period 2080 to 2100. We also provide detail caveats as towhy these quantities might be mis-estimated. The projected increase in the public insurer's liabilities could also be used to inform private insurers, regulators, and policymakers who are assessing the future performance of both the public and private insurers that cover weatherrelated.

Sentinel lymph node biopsy for risk-reducing mastectomy.

Risk-reducing mastectomy (RRM) confers 90-95% decreased risk of breast cancer, and may reduce mortality, especially in high-risk groups such as BRCA carriers. Risk of occult disease in RRM specimen is ~5%. This demands axillary staging: sentinel lymph node (SLN) biopsy is no longer possible, axillary clearance confers significant risks and may prove negative. Contemporaneous SLN biopsy allows axillary staging with minimal further dissection. Women undergoing RRM and SLN biopsy between June 2005 and July 2010 were reviewed retrospectively from our prospectively maintained database of 1,522 SLN procedures in 1,498 patients. SLN(s) localized using routine tracer methods. SLNs and mastectomy specimens underwent routine histologic examination. Eighty-three RRMs with SLN biopsy were performed in 71 patients (12 bilateral). Indications for RRM: contralateral invasive (55), in situ (5) disease, BRCA 1/2 mutation (12), and strong family history (10). Mean number of SLNs: 1.35. Occult disease was detected in four cases (4.8%), with one case of occult invasive lobular carcinoma (1.2%). Remaining occult disease was lobular in situ neoplasia (LISN). SLNs were negative in all cases. Our findings are comparable to those in the literature: 4.8% rate of occult disease overall, 1.2% invasive. The significant risk with SLN biopsy is lymphoedema, quoted around 7%. We have had no reports of symptomatic lymphoedema in patients undergoing RRM and SLN biopsy. We propose that SLN at the time of mastectomy requires only limited further dissection, and confers minimal risk compared with secondary axillary surgery.

Naturally occurring CD4+ CD25+ FOXP3+ T-regulatory cells are increased in chronic myeloid leukemia patients not in complete cytogenetic remission and can be immunosuppressive.

OBJECTIVE: Clinical presentation of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) requires not only the deregulated tyrosine kinase BCR-ABL, but also the failure of an immune response against BCR-ABL-expressing cells. T-cell responses against BCR-ABL and other antigens are well-described, but their relevance to the in vivo control of CML is unclear. The suppressive role of naturally occurring T regulatory (T-reg) cells in antitumor immunity is well-established, although little is known about their role in modulating the T-cell response to BCR-ABL. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Naturally occurring T-reg cells were characterized and quantified by flow cytometry in 39 CML patients and 10 healthy donors. Their function was studied by observing their effect on responses to purified protein derivative, a recall antigen, and on the response of an autologous T-cell line recognizing BCR-ABL. RESULTS: T-reg cells were CD4(+), CD25(+), FOXP3(+), CD127(low), and CD62L(high). T-reg numbers in patients in complete cytogenetic remission were significantly lower than in patients not in complete cytogenetic remission (p < 0.01). T-reg cell depletion using anti-CD25 selection enhanced proliferative responses to purified protein derivative. Furthermore, the interferon-γ and/or granzyme-B production of effector cells specific for viral peptides or a BCR-ABL HLA-A3-restricted peptide was inhibited when autologous T-reg cells were present. CONCLUSIONS: Taken together, these data suggest a role for T-reg cells in limiting immune responses in CML patients and this may include immune responses to BCR-ABL. The increased frequency of T-reg cells in patients with high levels of BCR-ABL transcripts indicates that an immune mechanism may be important in the control of CML.

Resting CD4+ effector memory T cells are precursors of bystander-activated effectors: a surrogate model of rheumatoid arthritis synovial T-cell function.

BACKGROUND: Previously we described a system whereby human peripheral blood T cells stimulated for 8 days in a cytokine cocktail acquired effector function for contact-dependent induction of proinflammatory cytokines from monocytes. We termed these cells cytokine-activated (Tck) cells and found that the signalling pathways elicited in the responding monocytes were identical whether they were placed in contact with Tck cells or with T cells isolated from rheumatoid arthritis (RA) synovial tissue. METHODS: Here, using magnetic beads and fluorescence-activated cell sorting, we extensively phenotype the Tck effector cells and conclude that effector function resides within the CD4+CD45RO+, CCR7-, CD49dhigh population, and that these cells are derived from the effector memory CD4+ T cells in resting blood. RESULTS: After stimulation in culture, these cells produce a wide range of T-cell cytokines, undergo proliferation and differentiate to acquire an extensively activated phenotype resembling RA synovial T cells. Blocking antibodies against CD69, CD18, or CD49d resulted in a reduction of tumour necrosis factor-alpha production from monocytes stimulated with CD4+CD45RO+ Tck cells in the co-culture assay. Moreover, blockade of these ligands also resulted in inhibition of spontaneous tumour necrosis factor-alpha production in RA synovial mononuclear cell cultures. CONCLUSION: Taken together, these data strengthen our understanding of T-cell effector function, highlight the multiple involvement of different cell surface ligands in cell-cell contact and, provide novel insights into the pathogenesis of inflammatory RA disease.

TCRzetadim lymphocytes define populations of circulating effector cells that migrate to inflamed tissues.

The T-cell receptor zeta (TCRzeta) chain is a master sensor and regulator of lymphocyte responses. Loss of TCRzeta expression has been documented in infectious, inflammatory, and malignant diseases, suggesting that it may serve to limit T-cell reactivity and effector responses at sites of tissue damage. These observations prompted us to explore the relationship between TCRzeta expression and effector function in T cells. We report here that TCRzeta(dim) lymphocytes are enriched for antigen-experienced cells refractory to TCR-induced proliferation. Compared to their TCRzeta(bright) counterparts, TCRzeta(dim) cells share characteristics of differentiated effector T cells but use accessory pathways for transducing signals for inflammatory cytokine gene expression and cell contact-dependent pathways to activate monocytes. TCRzeta(dim) T cells accumulate in inflamed tissues in vivo and have intrinsic migratory activity in vitro. Whilst blocking leukocyte trafficking with anti-TNF therapy in vivo is associated with the accumulation of TCRzeta(dim) T cells in peripheral blood, this T-cell subset retains the capacity to migrate in vitro. Taken together, the functional properties of TCRzeta(dim) T cells make them promising cellular targets for the treatment of chronic inflammatory disease.