Predicting and reducing potential parasite infection between migratory livestock and resident Asiatic ibex of Pin valley, India.

Disease cross-transmission between wild and domestic ungulates can negatively impact livelihoods and wildlife conservation. In Pin valley, migratory sheep and goats share pastures seasonally with the resident Asiatic ibex (Capra sibirica), leading to potential disease cross-transmission. Focussing on gastro-intestinal nematodes (GINs) as determinants of health in ungulates, we hypothesized that infection on pastures would increase over summer from contamination by migrating livestock. Consequently, interventions in livestock that are well-timed should reduce infection pressure for ibex. Using a parasite life-cycle model, that predicts infective larval availability, we investigated GIN transmission dynamics and evaluated potential interventions. Migratory livestock were predicted to contribute most infective larvae onto shared pastures due to higher density and parasite levels, driving infections in both livestock and ibex. The model predicted a c.30-day antiparasitic intervention towards the end of the livestock's time in Pin would be most effective at reducing GINs in both hosts. Albeit with the caveats of not being able to provide evidence of interspecific parasite transmission due to the inability to identify parasite species, this case demonstrates the usefulness of our predictive model for investigating parasite transmission in landscapes where domestic and wild ungulates share pastures. Additionally, it suggests management options for further investigation.

Situational social influence leading to non-compliance with conservation rules.

It is well established that the decisions that we make can be strongly influenced by the behaviour of others. However, testing how social influence can lead to non-compliance with conservation rules during an individual's decision-making process has received little research attention. We synthesise advances in understanding of conformity and rule-breaking in individuals and in groups, and take a situational approach to studying the social dynamics and ensuing social identity changes that can lead to non-compliant decision-making. We focus on situational social influence contagion that are copresent (i.e., same space and same time) or trace-based (i.e., behavioural traces in the same space). We then suggest approaches for testing how situational social influence can lead to certain behaviours in non-compliance with conservation rules.

Mitigating elasmobranch fin trade: A market analysis for made-to-measure interventions.

The unsustainable trade in elasmobranch products, particularly fins, contributes to the decline of elasmobranch populations worldwide. Designing and implementing context-appropriate solutions to mitigate unsustainable trade requires a thorough analysis of markets. Here we assess the market component of the elasmobranch fin trade in the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh, using a framework designed to analyse wildlife markets. Using a mixed-method approach, we characterised the market to identify the components contributing to unsustainable practices. By-catch retention levels were high leading to the development of a solid market. Trade on fins was prevalent due to a high price, lack of awareness, actors' limited ability to adhere to regulations, and no strategies and incentives to limit fishing mortality. An imbalanced power and financial structure between actors were revealed, with some actors accessing unequal benefits from the market. Impediments for adopting conservation measures by low-access actors (e.g., fishers) with limited decision-making power or resources were evident. We also identified challenges to enforcement primarily due to limited reporting and issues identifying species and products. Fishers noted several socio-ecological, technical, and enforcement issues (e.g., policing instead of meaningful monitoring, punitive measures without facilitating compliance), that will require adequate time and resources to change practices. Lack of opportunities and information to adhere to regulations and increased enforcement has led to conflicts, non-compliance and unwillingness to report catches. The study has significantly strengthened the current understanding of Bangladesh's complex elasmobranch product market while highlighting critical knowledge gaps that must be addressed to inform and improve management decisions. Based on the findings, we recommend targeted actions to respond to the current market for mitigating elasmobranch product trade and moving towards establishing sustainable and ethical trade. Our work has both regional and global significance, given the role of the Bay of Bengal nations in the worldwide elasmobranch product market.

A dynamic simulation model to support reduction in illegal trade within legal wildlife markets.

Sustainable wildlife trade is critical for biodiversity conservation, livelihoods, and food security. Regulatory frameworks are needed to secure these diverse benefits of sustainable wildlife trade. However, regulations limiting trade can backfire, sparking illegal trade if demand is not met by legal trade alone. Assessing how regulations affect wildlife market participants' incentives is key to controlling illegal trade. Although much research has assessed how incentives at both the harvester and consumer ends of markets are affected by regulations, little has been done to understand the incentives of traders (i.e., intermediaries). We built a dynamic simulation model to support reduction in illegal wildlife trade within legal markets by focusing on incentives traders face to trade legal or illegal products. We used an Approximate Bayesian Computation approach to infer illegal trading dynamics and parameters that might be unknown (e.g., price of illegal products). We showcased the utility of the approach with a small-scale fishery case study in Chile, where we disentangled within-year dynamics of legal and illegal trading and found that the majority (∼77%) of traded fish is illegal. We utilized the model to assess the effect of policy interventions to improve the fishery's sustainability and explore the trade-offs between ecological, economic, and social goals. Scenario simulations showed that even significant increases (over 200%) in parameters proxying for policy interventions enabled only moderate improvements in ecological and social sustainability of the fishery at substantial economic cost. These results expose how unbalanced trader incentives are toward trading illegal over legal products in this fishery. Our model provides a novel tool for promoting sustainable wildlife trade in data-limited settings, which explicitly considers traders as critical players in wildlife markets. Sustainable wildlife trade requires incentivizing legal over illegal wildlife trade and consideration of the social, ecological, and economic impacts of interventions.

Un Modelo Dinámico de Simulación para Asistir en la Reducción del Comercio Ilegal dentro de Mercados Legales de Vida Silvestre Resumen El comercio sustentable de vida silvestre es crítico para la conservación de la biodiversidad, los medios de subsistencia y la seguridad alimentaria. Son necesarios marcos regulatorios para asegurar estos diversos beneficios del comercio sustentable de vida silvestre. Sin embargo, las regulaciones que limitan el comercio pueden ser contraproducentes, generando un mercado ilegal si la demanda no se suple solamente con el comercio legal. El análisis de cómo las regulaciones afectan a los incentivos de los participantes del comercio de vida silvestre es de suma importancia para controlar el comercio ilegal. Mientras que muchas investigaciones se han centrado en analizar cómo las regulaciones afectan tanto a quienes consumen como quieren proveen visa silvestre, , poco se ha hecho para entender los incentivos de los intermediarios. Construimos un modelo dinámico de simulación para asistir en la reducción del comercio ilegal de vida silvestre dentro de los mercados legales, enfocándonos en los incentivos que enfrentan los intermediarios para comercializar productos legales o ilegales. Usamos un enfoque de Computación Bayesiana Aproximada para inferir las dinámicas del comercio ilegal y los parámetros que podrían ser desconocidos (p. ej.: el precio de los productos ilegales). Demostramos la utilidad del modelo mediante el caso de estudio de una pesquería de pequeña escala en Chile, en donde desentrañamos las dinámicas del comercio legal e ilegal y estimamos que la mayor parte del pescado comercializado es ilegal. Utilizamos el modelo para analizar el efecto de intervenciones para mejorar la sustentabilidad de la pesquería y para explorar los trade-offs entre metas ecológicas, económicas y sociales. Las simulaciones de escenarios mostraron que incluso incrementos significativos (más del 200%) de parámetros que recreaban intervenciones permitieron solamente mejoras moderadas en la sustentabilidad ecológica y social de la pesquería a un costo económico sustancial. Estos resultados exponen cuán desequilibrados están los incentivos de los intermediarios hacia el comercio de productos ilegales por encima de los legales en esta pesquería. Nuestro modelo proporciona una herramienta innovadora para la promoción del comercio sustentable de vida silvestre en entornos con datos limitados, y considera explícitamente a los intermediarios como actores críticos dentro del comercio de vida silvestre. El comercio sustentable de vida silvestre requiere incentivar el comercio legal sobre el ilegal y la consideración del impacto social, ecológico y económico de las intervenciones.

A framework for assessing and intervening in markets driving unsustainable wildlife use.

Understanding how markets drive unsustainable wildlife use is key for biodiversity conservation. Yet most approaches to date look at isolated components of wildlife markets, hindering our ability to intervene effectively to improve sustainability. To better assess and intervene in wildlife markets, we propose a framework that integrates three analytical levels. The first level, "actor", assesses the underlying motivations and mechanisms that allow or constrain how actors benefit from wildlife markets. The second level, "inter-actor", assesses the configuration of wildlife product supply-chains and the type of competition between actors participating in wildlife markets. The third level, "market", evaluates supply-demand dynamics, quantity and price determinants, and the presence and effect of illegal products flowing into markets. We showcase the utility of the framework in a data-limited small-scale fishery case study (common hake, Merluccius gayi gayi in Chile); our mixed-method analysis provided relevant, tailored management recommendations for improving sustainability. Tackling markets driving unsustainable wildlife use needs integrated approaches that bring together the diversity of factors affecting wildlife market dynamics.

Illegal fishing and territorial user rights in Chile.

Illegal fishing poses a major threat to conservation of marine resources worldwide. However, there is still limited empirical research that quantifies illegal catch levels. We used the randomized response technique to estimate the proportion of divers and the quantities of loco (Concholepas concholepas) they extracted illegally. Loco have been managed for the past 17 years through a territorial user rights for fisheries system (TURFs) in Chile. Illegal fishing of loco was widespread within the TURFs system. Official reported landings (i.e., legal landings) accounted for 14-30% of the total loco extraction. Our estimates suggest that ignoring the magnitude of illegal fishing and considering only official landing statistics may lead to false conclusions about the status and trends of a TURFs managed fishery. We found evidence of fisher associations authorizing their members to poach inside TURFs, highlighting the need to design TURFs systems so that government agencies and fishers' incentives and objectives align through continuous adaptation. Government support for enforcement is a key element for the TURFs system to secure the rights that are in place.