RESUMO
Black carbon (BC) is emitted into the atmosphere during combustion processes, often in conjunction with emissions such as nitrogen oxides (NOx) and ozone (O3), which are also by-products of combustion. In highly polluted regions, combustion processes are one of the main sources of aerosols and particulate matter (PM) concentrations, which affect the radiative budget. Despite the high relevance of this air pollution metric, BC monitoring is quite expensive in terms of instrumentation and of maintenance and servicing. With the aim to provide tools to estimate BC while minimising instrumentation costs, we use machine learning approaches to estimate BC from air pollution and meteorological parameters (NOx, O3, PM2.5, relative humidity (RH), and solar radiation (SR)) from currently available networks. We assess the effectiveness of various machine learning models, such as random forest (RF), support vector regression (SVR), and multilayer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network, for predicting black carbon (BC) mass concentrations in areas with high BC levels such as Northern Indian cities (Delhi and Agra), across different seasons. The results demonstrate comparable effectiveness among the models, with the multilayer perceptron (MLP) showing the most promising results. In addition, the comparability between estimated and monitored BC concentrations was high. In Delhi, the MLP shows high correlations between measured and modelled concentrations during winter (R2: 0.85) and post-monsoon (R2: 0.83) seasons, and notable metrics in the pre-monsoon (R2: 0.72). The results from Agra are consistent with those from Delhi, highlighting the consistency of the neural network's performance. These results highlight the usefulness of machine learning, particularly MLP, as a valuable tool for predicting BC concentrations. This approach provides critical new opportunities for urban air quality management and mitigation strategies and may be especially valuable for megacities in medium- and low-income regions.
RESUMO
The climate effects of atmospheric aerosol particles serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) depend on chemical composition and hygroscopicity, which are highly variable on spatial and temporal scales. Here we present global CCN measurements, covering diverse environments from pristine to highly polluted conditions. We show that the effective aerosol hygroscopicity, κ, can be derived accurately from the fine aerosol mass fractions of organic particulate matter (ϵorg) and inorganic ions (ϵinorg) through a linear combination, κ = ϵorg â κorg + ϵinorg â κinorg. In spite of the chemical complexity of organic matter, its hygroscopicity is well captured and represented by a global average value of κorg = 0.12 ± 0.02 with κinorg = 0.63 ± 0.01 as the corresponding value for inorganic ions. By showing that the sensitivity of global climate forcing to changes in κorg and κinorg is small, we constrain a critically important aspect of global climate modelling.
RESUMO
Aerosol-cloud interactions remain the largest uncertainty in climate projections. Ultrafine aerosol particles smaller than 50 nanometers (UAP<50) can be abundant in the troposphere but are conventionally considered too small to affect cloud formation. Observational evidence and numerical simulations of deep convective clouds (DCCs) over the Amazon show that DCCs forming in a low-aerosol environment can develop very large vapor supersaturation because fast droplet coalescence reduces integrated droplet surface area and subsequent condensation. UAP<50 from pollution plumes that are ingested into such clouds can be activated to form additional cloud droplets on which excess supersaturation condenses and forms additional cloud water and latent heating, thus intensifying convective strength. This mechanism suggests a strong anthropogenic invigoration of DCCs in previously pristine regions of the world.
RESUMO
The nucleation of atmospheric vapours is an important source of new aerosol particles that can subsequently grow to form cloud condensation nuclei in the atmosphere. Most field studies of atmospheric aerosols over continents are influenced by atmospheric vapours of anthropogenic origin (for example, ref. 2) and, in consequence, aerosol processes in pristine, terrestrial environments remain poorly understood. The Amazon rainforest is one of the few continental regions where aerosol particles and their precursors can be studied under near-natural conditions, but the origin of small aerosol particles that grow into cloud condensation nuclei in the Amazon boundary layer remains unclear. Here we present aircraft- and ground-based measurements under clean conditions during the wet season in the central Amazon basin. We find that high concentrations of small aerosol particles (with diameters of less than 50 nanometres) in the lower free troposphere are transported from the free troposphere into the boundary layer during precipitation events by strong convective downdrafts and weaker downward motions in the trailing stratiform region. This rapid vertical transport can help to maintain the population of particles in the pristine Amazon boundary layer, and may therefore influence cloud properties and climate under natural conditions.
Assuntos
Aerossóis/análise , Chuva , Aerossóis/química , Biomassa , Brasil , Incêndios , Tamanho da Partícula , Compostos Orgânicos Voláteis/análise , Compostos Orgânicos Voláteis/químicaRESUMO
Aerosol hygroscopic properties were linked to its chemical composition by using complementary online mass spectrometric techniques in a comprehensive chemical characterization study at a rural mountaintop station in central Germany in August 2012. In particular, atmospheric pressure chemical ionization mass spectrometry ((-)APCI-MS) provided measurements of organic acids, organosulfates, and nitrooxy-organosulfates in the particle phase at 1 min time resolution. Offline analysis of filter samples enabled us to determine the molecular composition of signals appearing in the online (-)APCI-MS spectra. Aerosol mass spectrometry (AMS) provided quantitative measurements of total submicrometer organics, nitrate, sulfate, and ammonium. Inorganic sulfate measurements were achieved by semionline ion chromatography and were compared to the AMS total sulfate mass. We found that up to 40% of the total sulfate mass fraction can be covalently bonded to organic molecules. This finding is supported by both on- and offline soft ionization techniques, which confirmed the presence of several organosulfates and nitrooxy-organosulfates in the particle phase. The chemical composition analysis was compared to hygroscopicity measurements derived from a cloud condensation nuclei counter. We observed that the hygroscopicity parameter (κ) that is derived from organic mass fractions determined by AMS measurements may overestimate the observed κ up to 0.2 if a high fraction of sulfate is bonded to organic molecules and little photochemical aging is exhibited.
RESUMO
Quantifying the aerosol/cloud-mediated radiative effect at a global scale requires simultaneous satellite retrievals of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations and cloud base updraft velocities (Wb). Hitherto, the inability to do so has been a major cause of high uncertainty regarding anthropogenic aerosol/cloud-mediated radiative forcing. This can be addressed by the emerging capability of estimating CCN and Wb of boundary layer convective clouds from an operational polar orbiting weather satellite. Our methodology uses such clouds as an effective analog for CCN chambers. The cloud base supersaturation (S) is determined by Wb and the satellite-retrieved cloud base drop concentrations (Ndb), which is the same as CCN(S). Validation against ground-based CCN instruments at Oklahoma, at Manaus, and onboard a ship in the northeast Pacific showed a retrieval accuracy of ±25% to ±30% for individual satellite overpasses. The methodology is presently limited to boundary layer not raining convective clouds of at least 1 km depth that are not obscured by upper layer clouds, including semitransparent cirrus. The limitation for small solar backscattering angles of <25° restricts the satellite coverage to â¼25% of the world area in a single day.