Relative Risk Prediction of Norovirus Incidence under Climate Change in Korea.

As incidences of food poisoning, especially norovirus-induced diarrhea, are associated with climate change, there is a need for an approach that can be used to predict the risks of such illnesses with high accuracy. In this paper, we predict the winter norovirus incidence rate in Korea compared to that of other diarrhea-causing viruses using a model based on B-spline added to logistic regression to estimate the long-term pattern of illness. We also develop a risk index based on the estimated probability of occurrence. Our probabilistic analysis shows that the risk of norovirus-related food poisoning in winter will remain stable or increase in Korea based on various Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Our approach can be used to obtain an overview of the changes occurring in regional and seasonal norovirus patterns that can help assist in making appropriate policy decisions.

Intensity-modulated radiotherapy for stage I glottic cancer: a short-term outcomes compared with three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy.

PURPOSE: To investigate the differences in treatment outcomes between two radiation techniques, intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) and three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3DCRT). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 160 (IMRT = 23, 3DCRT = 137) patients with stage I glottic cancer treated from January 2005 through December 2016. The IMRT was performed with TomoTherapy (16 patients), volumetric-modulated arc therapy (6 patients), and step-and-shoot technique (1 patient), respectively. The 3DCRT was performed with bilateral parallel opposing fields. The median follow-up duration was 30 months (range, 31 to 42 months) in the IMRT group and 65 months (range, 20 to 143 months) in the 3DCRT group. RESULTS: The 5-year overall survival and 3-year local control rates of the 160 patients were 95.7% and 91.4%, respectively. There was no significant difference in 3-year local control rates between the IMRT and 3DCRT groups (94.4% vs. 91.0%; p = 0.587). Thirteen of 137 patients in the 3DCRT group had recurrences. In the IMRT group, one patient had a recurrence at the true vocal cord. Patients treated with IMRT had less grade 2 skin reaction than the 3DCRT group, but this had no statistical significance (4.3% vs. 21.2%; p = 0.080). CONCLUSION: IMRT had comparable outcomes with 3DCRT, and a trend of less acute skin reaction in stage I glottic cancer patients.