Permafrost thaw driven changes in hydrology and vegetation cover increase trace gas emissions and climate forcing in Stordalen Mire from 1970 to 2014.

Permafrost thaw increases active layer thickness, changes landscape hydrology and influences vegetation species composition. These changes alter belowground microbial and geochemical processes, affecting production, consumption and net emission rates of climate forcing trace gases. Net carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes determine the radiative forcing contribution from these climate-sensitive ecosystems. Permafrost peatlands may be a mosaic of dry frozen hummocks, semi-thawed or perched sphagnum dominated areas, wet permafrost-free sedge dominated sites and open water ponds. We revisited estimates of climate forcing made for 1970 and 2000 for Stordalen Mire in northern Sweden and found the trend of increasing forcing continued into 2014. The Mire continued to transition from dry permafrost to sedge and open water areas, increasing by 100% and 35%, respectively, over the 45-year period, causing the net radiative forcing of Stordalen Mire to shift from negative to positive. This trend is driven by transitioning vegetation community composition, improved estimates of annual CO2 and CH4 exchange and a 22% increase in the IPCC's 100-year global warming potential (GWP_100) value for CH4. These results indicate that discontinuous permafrost ecosystems, while still remaining a net overall sink of C, can become a positive feedback to climate change on decadal timescales. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 2)'.

Evaluating multiple causes of persistent low microwave backscatter from Amazon forests after the 2005 drought.

Amazonia has experienced large-scale regional droughts that affect forest productivity and biomass stocks. Space-borne remote sensing provides basin-wide data on impacts of meteorological anomalies, an important complement to relatively limited ground observations across the Amazon's vast and remote humid tropical forests. Morning overpass QuikScat Ku-band microwave backscatter from the forest canopy was anomalously low during the 2005 drought, relative to the full instrument record of 1999-2009, and low morning backscatter persisted for 2006-2009, after which the instrument failed. The persistent low backscatter has been suggested to be indicative of increased forest vulnerability to future drought. To better ascribe the cause of the low post-drought backscatter, we analyzed multiyear, gridded remote sensing data sets of precipitation, land surface temperature, forest cover and forest cover loss, and microwave backscatter over the 2005 drought region in the southwestern Amazon Basin (4°-12°S, 66°-76°W) and in adjacent 8°x10° regions to the north and east. We found moderate to weak correlations with the spatial distribution of persistent low backscatter for variables related to three groups of forest impacts: the 2005 drought itself, loss of forest cover, and warmer and drier dry seasons in the post-drought vs. the pre-drought years. However, these variables explained only about one quarter of the variability in depressed backscatter across the southwestern drought region. Our findings indicate that drought impact is a complex phenomenon and that better understanding can only come from more extensive ground data and/or analysis of frequent, spatially-comprehensive, high-resolution data or imagery before and after droughts.

Modeling Raccoon (Procyon lotor) Habitat Connectivity to Identify Potential Corridors for Rabies Spread.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), Wildlife Services National Rabies Management Program has conducted cooperative oral rabies vaccination (ORV) programs since 1997. Understanding the eco-epidemiology of raccoon (Procyon lotor) variant rabies (raccoon rabies) is critical to successful management. Pine (Pinus spp.)-dominated landscapes generally support low relative raccoon densities that may inhibit rabies spread. However, confounding landscape features, such as wetlands and human development, represent potentially elevated risk corridors for rabies spread, possibly imperiling enhanced rabies surveillance and ORV planning. Raccoon habitat suitability in pine-dominated landscapes in Massachusetts, Florida, and Alabama was modeled by the maximum entropy (Maxent) procedure using raccoon presence, and landscape and environmental data. Replicated (n = 100/state) bootstrapped Maxent models based on raccoon sampling locations from 2012⁻2014 indicated that soil type was the most influential variable in Alabama (permutation importance PI = 38.3), which, based on its relation to landcover type and resource distribution and abundance, was unsurprising. Precipitation (PI = 46.9) and temperature (PI = 52.1) were the most important variables in Massachusetts and Florida, but these possibly spurious results require further investigation. The Alabama Maxent probability surface map was ingested into Circuitscape for conductance visualizations of potential areas of habitat connectivity. Incorporating these and future results into raccoon rabies containment and elimination strategies could result in significant cost-savings for rabies management here and elsewhere.

Detecting Precontact Anthropogenic Microtopographic Features in a Forested Landscape with Lidar: A Case Study from the Upper Great Lakes Region, AD 1000-1600.

Forested settings present challenges for understanding the full extent of past human landscape modifications. Field-based archaeological reconnaissance in forests is low-efficiency and most remote sensing techniques are of limited utility, and together, this means many past sites and features in forests are unknown. Archaeologists have increasingly used light detection and ranging (lidar), a remote sensing tool that uses pulses of light to measure reflecting surfaces at high spatial resolution, to address these limitations. Archaeology studies using lidar have made significant progress identifying permanent structures built by large-scale complex agriculturalist societies. Largely unaccounted for, however, are numerous small and more practical modifications of landscapes by smaller-scale societies. Here we show these may also be detectable with lidar by identifying remnants of food storage pits (cache pits) created by mobile hunter-gatherers in the upper Great Lakes during Late Precontact (ca. AD 1000-1600) that now only exist as subtle microtopographic features. Years of intensive field survey identified 69 cache pit groups between two inland lakes in northern Michigan, almost all of which were located within ~500 m of a lakeshore. Applying a novel series of image processing techniques and statistical analyses to a high spatial resolution DTM we created from commercial-grade lidar, our detection routine identified 139 high potential cache pit clusters. These included most of the previously known clusters as well as several unknown clusters located >1500 m from either lakeshore, much further from lakeshores than all previously identified cultural sites. Food storage is understood to have emerged regionally as a risk-buffering strategy after AD 1000 but our results indicate the current record of hunter-gatherer cache pit food storage is markedly incomplete and this practice and its associated impact on the landscape may be greater than anticipated. Our study also demonstrates the potential of harnessing commercial-grade lidar for other fine-grained archaeology applications.

Geospatial modeling approach to monument construction using Michigan from A.D. 1000-1600 as a case study.

Building monuments was one way that past societies reconfigured their landscapes in response to shifting social and ecological factors. Understanding the connections between those factors and monument construction is critical, especially when multiple types of monuments were constructed across the same landscape. Geospatial technologies enable past cultural activities and environmental variables to be examined together at large scales. Many geospatial modeling approaches, however, are not designed for presence-only (occurrence) data, which can be limiting given that many archaeological site records are presence only. We use maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt), which works with presence-only data, to predict the distribution of monuments across large landscapes, and we analyze MaxEnt output to quantify the contributions of spatioenvironmental variables to predicted distributions. We apply our approach to co-occurring Late Precontact (ca. A.D. 1000-1600) monuments in Michigan: (i) mounds and (ii) earthwork enclosures. Many of these features have been destroyed by modern development, and therefore, we conducted archival research to develop our monument occurrence database. We modeled each monument type separately using the same input variables. Analyzing variable contribution to MaxEnt output, we show that mound and enclosure landscape suitability was driven by contrasting variables. Proximity to inland lakes was key to mound placement, and proximity to rivers was key to sacred enclosures. This juxtaposition suggests that mounds met local needs for resource procurement success, whereas enclosures filled broader regional needs for intergroup exchange and shared ritual. Our study shows how MaxEnt can be used to develop sophisticated models of past cultural processes, including monument building, with imperfect, limited, presence-only data.

Estimating Tropical Forest Structure Using a Terrestrial Lidar.

Forest structure comprises numerous quantifiable biometric components and characteristics, which include tree geometry and stand architecture. These structural components are important in the understanding of the past and future trajectories of these biomes. Tropical forests are often considered the most structurally complex and yet least understood of forested ecosystems. New technologies have provided novel avenues for quantifying biometric properties of forested ecosystems, one of which is LIght Detection And Ranging (lidar). This sensor can be deployed on satellite, aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, and terrestrial platforms. In this study we examined the efficacy of a terrestrial lidar scanner (TLS) system in a tropical forest to estimate forest structure. Our study was conducted in January 2012 at La Selva, Costa Rica at twenty locations in a predominantly undisturbed forest. At these locations we collected field measured biometric attributes using a variable plot design. We also collected TLS data from the center of each plot. Using this data we developed relative vegetation profiles (RVPs) and calculated a series of parameters including entropy, Fast Fourier Transform (FFT), number of layers and plant area index to develop statistical relationships with field data. We developed statistical models using a series of multiple linear regressions, all of which converged on significant relationships with the strongest relationship being for mean crown depth (r2 = 0.88, p < 0.001, RMSE = 1.04 m). Tree density was found to have the poorest significant relationship (r2 = 0.50, p < 0.01, RMSE = 153.28 n ha-1). We found a significant relationship between basal area and lidar metrics (r2 = 0.75, p < 0.001, RMSE = 3.76 number ha-1). Parameters selected in our models varied, thus indicating the potential relevance of multiple features in canopy profiles and geometry that are related to field-measured structure. Models for biomass estimation included structural canopy variables in addition to height metrics. Our work indicates that vegetation profiles from TLS data can provide useful information on forest structure.

Anthropogenic Habitats Facilitate Dispersal of an Early Successional Obligate: Implications for Restoration of an Endangered Ecosystem.

Landscape modification and habitat fragmentation disrupt the connectivity of natural landscapes, with major consequences for biodiversity. Species that require patchily distributed habitats, such as those that specialize on early successional ecosystems, must disperse through a landscape matrix with unsuitable habitat types. We evaluated landscape effects on dispersal of an early successional obligate, the New England cottontail (Sylvilagus transitionalis). Using a landscape genetics approach, we identified barriers and facilitators of gene flow and connectivity corridors for a population of cottontails in the northeastern United States. We modeled dispersal in relation to landscape structure and composition and tested hypotheses about the influence of habitat fragmentation on gene flow. Anthropogenic and natural shrubland habitats facilitated gene flow, while the remainder of the matrix, particularly development and forest, impeded gene flow. The relative influence of matrix habitats differed between study areas in relation to a fragmentation gradient. Barrier features had higher explanatory power in the more fragmented site, while facilitating features were important in the less fragmented site. Landscape models that included a simultaneous barrier and facilitating effect of roads had higher explanatory power than models that considered either effect separately, supporting the hypothesis that roads act as both barriers and facilitators at all spatial scales. The inclusion of LiDAR-identified shrubland habitat improved the fit of our facilitator models. Corridor analyses using circuit and least cost path approaches revealed the importance of anthropogenic, linear features for restoring connectivity between the study areas. In fragmented landscapes, human-modified habitats may enhance functional connectivity by providing suitable dispersal conduits for early successional specialists.

Perceptions of risk in communities near parks in an African biodiversity hotspot.

Understanding conservation and livelihood threats in park landscapes is important to informing conservation policy. To identify threats, we examined perceived risks of residents living near three national parks in Uganda. We used cross-sectional household data to document, rank, and measure severity of perceived risks. Three risk categories, grouped into protected area, climate, and health, were cited by 80 % of respondents and received the highest severity scores. Elevation, proximity to the park, local forest loss, recent population change, and measures of poverty were the most important variables in predicting whether or not an individual identified these risks as the most or second most severe risk. Health issues were cited throughout the landscape, while problems attributed to climate (mainly insufficient rainfall) were reported to be most severe farther from the park. Increased population density was associated with increased perceived risk of health challenges, but decreased perceived risks attributed to the park and climate. Participatory risk mapping provides the opportunity to make standardized comparisons across sites, to help identify commonalities and differences, as a first step to examining the degree to which conservation management might address some of these local challenges and where mitigation techniques might be transferable between different sites or conflict scenarios.

Toward an integrated monitoring framework to assess the effects of tropical forest degradation and recovery on carbon stocks and biodiversity.

Tropical forests harbor a significant portion of global biodiversity and are a critical component of the climate system. Reducing deforestation and forest degradation contributes to global climate-change mitigation efforts, yet emissions and removals from forest dynamics are still poorly quantified. We reviewed the main challenges to estimate changes in carbon stocks and biodiversity due to degradation and recovery of tropical forests, focusing on three main areas: (1) the combination of field surveys and remote sensing; (2) evaluation of biodiversity and carbon values under a unified strategy; and (3) research efforts needed to understand and quantify forest degradation and recovery. The improvement of models and estimates of changes of forest carbon can foster process-oriented monitoring of forest dynamics, including different variables and using spatially explicit algorithms that account for regional and local differences, such as variation in climate, soil, nutrient content, topography, biodiversity, disturbance history, recovery pathways, and socioeconomic factors. Generating the data for these models requires affordable large-scale remote-sensing tools associated with a robust network of field plots that can generate spatially explicit information on a range of variables through time. By combining ecosystem models, multiscale remote sensing, and networks of field plots, we will be able to evaluate forest degradation and recovery and their interactions with biodiversity and carbon cycling. Improving monitoring strategies will allow a better understanding of the role of forest dynamics in climate-change mitigation, adaptation, and carbon cycle feedbacks, thereby reducing uncertainties in models of the key processes in the carbon cycle, including their impacts on biodiversity, which are fundamental to support forest governance policies, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation.

Size and frequency of natural forest disturbances and the Amazon forest carbon balance.

Forest inventory studies in the Amazon indicate a large terrestrial carbon sink. However, field plots may fail to represent forest mortality processes at landscape-scales of tropical forests. Here we characterize the frequency distribution of disturbance events in natural forests from 0.01 ha to 2,651 ha size throughout Amazonia using a novel combination of forest inventory, airborne lidar and satellite remote sensing data. We find that small-scale mortality events are responsible for aboveground biomass losses of ~1.7 Pg C y(-1) over the entire Amazon region. We also find that intermediate-scale disturbances account for losses of ~0.2 Pg C y(-1), and that the largest-scale disturbances as a result of blow-downs only account for losses of ~0.004 Pg C y(-1). Simulation of growth and mortality indicates that even when all carbon losses from intermediate and large-scale disturbances are considered, these are outweighed by the net biomass accumulation by tree growth, supporting the inference of an Amazon carbon sink.

Amazon forests maintain consistent canopy structure and greenness during the dry season.

The seasonality of sunlight and rainfall regulates net primary production in tropical forests. Previous studies have suggested that light is more limiting than water for tropical forest productivity, consistent with greening of Amazon forests during the dry season in satellite data. We evaluated four potential mechanisms for the seasonal green-up phenomenon, including increases in leaf area or leaf reflectance, using a sophisticated radiative transfer model and independent satellite observations from lidar and optical sensors. Here we show that the apparent green up of Amazon forests in optical remote sensing data resulted from seasonal changes in near-infrared reflectance, an artefact of variations in sun-sensor geometry. Correcting this bidirectional reflectance effect eliminated seasonal changes in surface reflectance, consistent with independent lidar observations and model simulations with unchanging canopy properties. The stability of Amazon forest structure and reflectance over seasonal timescales challenges the paradigm of light-limited net primary production in Amazon forests and enhanced forest growth during drought conditions. Correcting optical remote sensing data for artefacts of sun-sensor geometry is essential to isolate the response of global vegetation to seasonal and interannual climate variability.

Necromass production: studies in undisturbed and logged Amazon forests.

Necromass stocks account for up to 20% of carbon stored in tropical forests and have been estimated to be 14-19% of the annual aboveground carbon flux. Both stocks and fluxes of necromass are infrequently measured. In this study, we directly measured the production of fallen coarse necromass (> or = 2 cm diameter) during 4.5 years using repeated surveys in undisturbed forest areas and in forests subjected to reduced-impact logging at the Tapajos National Forest, Belterra, Brazil (3.08 degrees S, 54.94 degrees W). We also measured fallen coarse necromass and standing dead stocks at two times during our study. The mean (SE) annual flux into the fallen coarse necromass pool in undisturbed forest of 6.7 (0.8) Mg x ha(-1) x yr(-1) was not significantly different from the flux under a reduced-impact logging of 8.5 (1.3) Mg x ha(-1) x yr(-1) With the assumption of steady state, the instantaneous decomposition constants for fallen necromass in undisturbed forests were 0.12 yr(-1) for large, 0.33 yr(-1) for medium, and 0.47 yr(-1) for small size classes. The mass weighted decomposition constant was 0.15 yr(-1) for all fallen coarse necromass. Standing dead wood had a residence time of 4.2 years, and approximately 0.9 Mg x ha(-1) x yr(-1) of this pool was respired annually to the atmosphere through decomposition. Coarse necromass decomposition at our study site accounted for 12% of total carbon remineralization, and total aboveground coarse necromass was 14% of the aboveground biomass. Use of mortality rates to calculate production of coarse necromass leads to an underestimation of coarse necromass production by 45%, suggesting that nonlethal disturbance such as branch fall contributes significantly to this flux. Coarse necromass production is an important component of the tropical forest carbon cycle that has been neglected in most previous studies or erroneously estimated.

Regional ecosystem structure and function: ecological insights from remote sensing of tropical forests.

Ecological studies in tropical forests have long been plagued by difficulties associated with sampling the crowns of large canopy trees and large inaccessible regions, such as the Amazon basin. Recent advances in remote sensing have overcome some of these obstacles, enabling progress towards tackling difficult ecological problems. Breakthroughs have helped transform the dialog between ecology and remote sensing, generating new regional perspectives on key environmental gradients and species assemblages with ecologically relevant measures such as canopy nutrient and moisture content, crown area, leaf-level drought responses, woody tissue and surface litter abundance, phenological patterns, and land-cover transitions. Issues that we address here include forest response to altered precipitation regimes, regional disturbance and land-use patterns, invasive species and landscape carbon balance.