The future of plant diversity within a Mediterranean endemism centre: Modelling the synergistic effects of climate and land-use change in Peloponnese, Greece.

Climate- and land-use change stand as primary threats to terrestrial biodiversity. Yet, their synergistic impacts on species distributions remain poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted the first-ever comprehensive species distribution analysis on an entire regional endemism centre within an eastern Mediterranean country, incorporating dynamic land-use/land-cover change data together with climate change scenarios. Specifically, we apply species distribution modelling and spatial data analysis techniques to compare the individual and synergistic effects of these environmental drivers on the endemic vascular flora of Peloponnese, focusing on potential range contractions, altitudinal shifts, and habitat fragmentation levels. Moreover, we identify fine-scale present and potential future endemism hotspots within our study area, incorporating taxonomic and phylogenetic information. Overall, we aim to enhance our current understanding of endemism patterns and contribute to the development of future-proof conservation strategies for safeguarding Greece's endangered endemic flora. The integration of land-use change projections with climate change yielded less severe impacts compared to the effects anticipated when considering climatic variables alone. Most taxa are expected to undergo significant range declines and nearly half might experience increased habitat fragmentation, due to the synergistic effects of climate- and land-use change. We identified endemism hotspots, which are concentrated in or along the main Peloponnesian mountain massifs. However, our predictions indicate that areas presently recognized as endemism hotspots will undergo a concerning area decline, across all future scenarios considered in this study. Our findings highlight the importance of including dynamic land-use variables alongside climatic predictors when projecting species distributions under global change. Moreover, we showed that endemism hotspots are not static and considering their potential geographic shifts is paramount to delineate effective forward-looking conservation strategies.

Rising Temperatures, Falling Leaves: Predicting the Fate of Cyprus's Endemic Oak under Climate and Land Use Change.

Endemic island species face heightened extinction risk from climate-driven shifts, yet standard models often underestimate threat levels for those like Quercus alnifolia, an iconic Cypriot oak with pre-adaptations to aridity. Through species distribution modelling, we investigated the potential shifts in its distribution under future climate and land-use change scenarios. Our approach uniquely combines dispersal constraints, detailed soil characteristics, hydrological factors, and anticipated soil erosion data, offering a comprehensive assessment of environmental suitability. We quantified the species' sensitivity, exposure, and vulnerability to projected changes, conducting a preliminary IUCN extinction risk assessment according to Criteria A and B. Our projections uniformly predict range reductions, with a median decrease of 67.8% by the 2070s under the most extreme scenarios. Additionally, our research indicates Quercus alnifolia's resilience to diverse erosion conditions and preference for relatively dry climates within a specific annual temperature range. The preliminary IUCN risk assessment designates Quercus alnifolia as Critically Endangered in the future, highlighting the need for focused conservation efforts. Climate and land-use changes are critical threats to the species' survival, emphasising the importance of comprehensive modelling techniques and the urgent requirement for dedicated conservation measures to safeguard this iconic species.

Climate and Land-Cover Change Impacts and Extinction Risk Assessment of Rare and Threatened Endemic Taxa of Chelmos-Vouraikos National Park (Peloponnese, Greece).

Chelmos-Vouraikos National Park is a floristic diversity and endemism hotspot in Greece and one of the main areas where Greek endemic taxa, preliminary assessed as critically endangered and threatened under the IUCN Criteria A and B, are mainly concentrated. The climate and land-cover change impacts on rare and endemic species distributions is more prominent in regional biodiversity hotspots. The main aims of the current study were: (a) to investigate how climate and land-cover change may alter the distribution of four single mountain endemics and three very rare Peloponnesian endemic taxa of the National Park via a species distribution modelling approach, and (b) to estimate the current and future extinction risk of the aforementioned taxa based on the IUCN Criteria A and B, in order to investigate the need for designing an effective plant micro-reserve network and to support decision making on spatial planning efforts and conservation research for a sustainable, integrated management. Most of the taxa analyzed are expected to continue to be considered as critically endangered based on both Criteria A and B under all land-cover/land-use scenarios, GCM/RCP and time-period combinations, while two, namely Alchemilla aroanica and Silene conglomeratica, are projected to become extinct in most future climate change scenarios. When land-cover/land-use data were included in the analyses, these negative effects were less pronounced. However, Silene conglomeratica, the rarest mountain endemic found in the study area, is still expected to face substantial range decline. Our results highlight the urgent need for the establishment of micro-reserves for these taxa.

Farming practices and biodiversity: Evidence from a Mediterranean semi-extensive system on the island of Lemnos (North Aegean, Greece).

The management of agroecosystems affects biodiversity at all levels from genetic to food-web complexity. Low-input farming systems support higher levels of genetic, species and habitat diversity than high-input, industrial ones. In Greece, as in other Mediterranean countries, the role of traditional farming practices has been underlined in studies concerning conservation in agricultural landscapes. With this study, we aim to provide evidence for the potential of semi-extensive farming for biodiversity conservation at landscape-scale, focusing on Lemnos, a medium-sized island in the North Aegean. Evidence was gathered by species- and community-level local-scale surveys on various trophic levels (vascular plants, arthropods, birds). The surveys took place in 2018 and 2019 in 25 sampling areas comprising 106 plots of 100 m2 (vascular plants, arthropods) and 57 points where bird species were recorded. The plots were classified into three landscape types: mosaic agriculture, mixed rangelands and uniform rangelands. The relevés of Lemnos farmlands were assigned to plant communities of 18 phytosociological alliances, grouped into 12 classes. The most abundant arthropods were Coleoptera, Chilopoda, and Hymenoptera, followed by Opiliones and Isopoda, while 133 different bird species were recorded in total, including the recording for the first time on the island of five species. Farming on Lemnos is rather extensive compared to most agricultural landscapes of Europe. Our approach has demonstrated that, given the geographic characteristics of the area, the measured data reveal very high biodiversity. Our explorative findings suggest that moderate seasonal grazing, the mixed habitat mosaic with ecotones, fallow and stubble fields at the landscape scale, and the small size of fields, the kinds of crop, and farm-scale crop diversification, like mixed cultivation and crop rotation, are key practices supporting this diversity. These explorative findings are considered as a first step providing the baseline for future assessments. A wider effort, for systematic evaluation of the impacts of farming practices to biodiversity, is required, as part of a subsidized agri-environmental scheme and/or through a market-oriented product certification system for the area.

Linking Taxonomic, Phylogenetic and Functional Plant Diversity with Ecosystem Services of Cliffs and Screes in Greece.

Sparsely vegetated habitats of cliffs and screes act as refugia for many regional and local endemic specialized plant taxa most of which have evolved precisely for that type of habitat. The interplay between taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional plant diversity on rock and scree habitats of extreme environmental conditions, enlightens the relations of plant communities and ecosystems and facilitates management planning for the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. The identification of biodiversity patterns and hotspots (taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional) contributes to the integration of the ecosystem services (ES) approach for the mapping and assessment of ecosystems and their services (MAES) implementation in Greece and the creation of thematic maps based on the MAES reporting format. The overlap among the protected areas' network revealed that almost all areas of cliffs and screes of medium, high, and very high taxonomic and phylogenetic plant endemism are included in the Natura 2000 area network. The results of this study provide the baseline information for ES assessments at sparsely vegetated land of cliffs and screes. Our results contribute to the implementation of certain indicators of the national set of MAES indicators in Greece such as (a) floristic diversity and (b) microrefugia of endemic diversity and support of decision-making.

Extinction Risk Assessment of the Greek Endemic Flora.

Human-induced biodiversity decline has been on the rise for the past 250 years, due to various causes. What is equally troubling, is that we are unaware which plants are threatened and where they occur. Thus, we are far from reaching Aichi Biodiversity Target 2, i.e., assessing the extinction risk of most species. To that end, based on an extensive occurrence dataset, we performed an extinction risk assessment according to the IUCN Criteria A and B for all the endemic plant taxa occurring in Greece, one of the most biodiverse countries in Europe, in a phylogenetically-informed framework and identified the areas needing conservation prioritization. Several of the Greek endemics are threatened with extinction and fourteen endemics need to be prioritized, as they are evolutionary distinct and globally endangered. Mt. Gramos is identified as the most important conservation hotspot in Greece. However, a significant portion of the identified conservation hotspots is not included in any designated Greek protected area, meaning that the Greek protected areas network might need to be at least partially redesigned. In the Anthropocene era, where climate and land-use change are projected to alter biodiversity patterns and may force many species to extinction, our assessment provides the baseline for future conservation research, ecosystem services maintenance, and might prove crucial for the timely, systematic and effective aversion of plant extinctions in Greece.

Plant Endemism Centres and Biodiversity Hotspots in Greece.

Biodiversity hotspots (BH) cover a small fraction of the Earth's surface, yet host numerous endemics. Human-induced biodiversity loss has been increasing worldwide, despite attempts to halt the extinction crisis. There is thus an urgent need to efficiently allocate the available conservation funds in an optimised conservation prioritization scheme. Identifying BH and endemism centres (EC) is therefore a valuable tool in conservation prioritization and planning. Even though Greece is one of the most plant species-rich European countries, few studies have dealt with the identification of BH or EC and none has ever incorporated phylogenetic information or extended to the national scale. Consequently, we are unaware of the extent that Special Areas of Conservation (SAC) of the Natura 2000 network efficiently protect Greek plant diversity. Here, we located for the first time at a national scale and in a phylogenetic framework, the areas serving as BH and EC, and assessed the effectiveness of the Greek SAC in safeguarding them. BH and EC are mainly located near mountainous areas, and in areas supposedly floristically impoverished, such as the central Aegean islands. A critical re-assessment of the Greek SAC might be needed to minimize the extinction risk of the Greek endemics, by focusing the conservation efforts also on the BH and EC that fall outside the established Greek SAC.

Spatial Phylogenetics, Biogeographical Patterns and Conservation Implications of the Endemic Flora of Crete (Aegean, Greece) under Climate Change Scenarios.

Human-induced biodiversity loss has been accelerating since the industrial revolution. The climate change impacts will severely alter the biodiversity and biogeographical patterns at all scales, leading to biotic homogenization. Due to underfunding, a climate smart, conservation-prioritization scheme is needed to optimize species protection. Spatial phylogenetics enable the identification of endemism centers and provide valuable insights regarding the eco-evolutionary and conservation value, as well as the biogeographical origin of a given area. Many studies exist regarding the conservation prioritization of mainland areas, yet none has assessed how climate change might alter the biodiversity and biogeographical patterns of an island biodiversity hotspot. Thus, we conducted a phylogenetically informed, conservation prioritization study dealing with the effects of climate change on Crete's plant diversity and biogeographical patterns. Using several macroecological analyses, we identified the current and future endemism centers and assessed the impact of climate change on the biogeographical patterns in Crete. The highlands of Cretan mountains have served as both diversity cradles and museums, due to their stable climate and high topographical heterogeneity, providing important ecosystem services. Historical processes seem to have driven diversification and endemic species distribution in Crete. Due to the changing climate and the subsequent biotic homogenization, Crete's unique bioregionalization, which strongly reminiscent the spatial configuration of the Pliocene/Pleistocene Cretan paleo-islands, will drastically change. The emergence of the 'Anthropocene' era calls for the prioritization of biodiversity-rich areas, serving as mixed-endemism centers, with high overlaps among protected areas and climatic refugia.

Local knowledge about sustainable harvesting and availability of wild medicinal plant species in Lemnos island, Greece.

BACKGROUND: In Europe and the Mediterranean, over-exploitation and destructive harvesting techniques have been identified as two critical threats affecting the sustainable harvesting of wild medicinal plant (WMP) species. However, unsustainable harvesting is not an issue everywhere and localized assessments are needed. Local knowledge has been praised for its potential for local short-term assessments. In this study, we aimed to register the known, harvested, and locally utilized WMP species and understand local knowledge of harvesters about the ecological sustainability of WMP harvesting and the perceived changes of WMP availability. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study was conducted on Lemnos island, Greece, in July and August 2018. Sixteen harvesters knowledgeable about gathering and using WMP were chosen through purposeful and snowball sampling. Successive free-lists provided insights on the taxa known, harvested, and utilized by harvesters and subsequent semi-structured interviews served to understand harvesting practices and perceived changes of WMP availability. Participant observation during seven harvesting walks allowed for additional insights and facilitated the collection of voucher specimens. RESULTS: In total, 144 different plant taxa were listed as useful and 81 had been harvested in the prior 4 years. Medicinal applications were mainly related to digestive and respiratory system issues. A number of favorable harvesting practices suggested a high potential towards an ecologically sustainable harvest. Although, a decreased availability for certain plant taxa and harvesting sites was reported and mainly attributed to external factors such as pollution, unusually dry weather, intentional pastureland burning or chemicals in agriculture, but also destructive harvesting by less knowledgeable harvesters. CONCLUSIONS: Knowledgeable harvesters of Lemnos gather and use a considerable number of WMP taxa and possess local knowledge that supports an ecologically sustainable harvest. However, certain plant taxa and areas of the island were indicated to be under pressure from harvesting, unusual climatic conditions, and agricultural practices. Our approach confirmed that local knowledge should be taken into account for assessing the sustainability of WMP harvesting.

Plant species richness and composition of a habitat island within Lake Kastoria and comparison with those of a true island within the protected Pamvotis lake (NW Greece).

Lake Kastoria is one of the potentially "ancient" Balkan lakes that has a great environmental importance and ecological value, attracts high touristic interest and is under various anthropogenic pressures. It belongs to a Natura 2000 Special Protection Area and a Site of Community Interest. The city of Kastoria is located at the western part of the lake and just next to it, towards the centre of the lake, is a peninsula, a habitat island. In the framework of research concerning the flora of lake islands of Greece, one of the main objectives of the present study is to fill a gap concerning plant species richness of the habitat island within the protected Lake Kastoria, which is surrounded by the lake except for its north-western part where the border of the city of Kastoria is located. Floristic analysis of the habitat island of Lake Kastoria is in large measure accounted, concerning chorology with emphasis on Balkan endemics (8.7%), life forms, by hemicryptophytes (36.1%), therophytes (33.2%), phanerophytes (16.4%) and geophytes (10.9%) and, for habitats, by taxa preferring agricultural and ruderal ones (53.3%). Another objective is to compare its floristic composition to the one of the island within the protected urban Lake Pamvotis - one of the very few lake islands in Greece - focusing on the influence of urbanisation. The α- and ß- diversity are measured in order to reveal floristic differences. Beta diversity partitioning in turnover and nestedness showed that the ß-diversity is mostly expressed as compositional turnover. The role of the society in combination with long-term programmes for the study of plant species richness, functional diversity and patterns of species assemblages over time are necessary for the effective management and protection of protected areas, including lake insular areas.

Temporal turnover of the flora of lake islands: The island of Lake Pamvotis (Epirus, Greece).

Lake Pamvotis is one of the Balkan "ancient" lakes, a Quaternary refugium of great environmental importance and ecological value, that is under various anthropogenic pressures. It belongs to a Natura 2000 Special Area for Conservation and Special Protection Area. Almost in the middle of the lake, there is an inhabited island - one of the two lake islands in Greece - that also attracts touristic interest. Τhe main objectives of the present study are to provide a floristic inventory of the protected island, combining data of two different sampling periods, within a 25 year interval, in order to estimate temporal beta diversity and species turnover of the island's plant diversity. The value of the absolute and relative turnover rates of the floristic diversity of the island studied are 4.24 and 1.72, respectively and are amongst the higher rates reported for plants. The absolute difference between extinct (E) and immigrant (l) taxa is to a great extent accounted, concerning life forms, by therophytes (1.86), hemicryptophytes (1.56) and geophytes (1.04) and, for habitats, by taxa preferring agricultural and ruderal forms (2.52).

Comparing the two Greek archipelagos plant species diversity and endemism patterns highlight the importance of isolation and precipitation as biodiversity drivers.

BACKGROUND: Greece has two island archipelagos, the Aegean and the Ionian, which host a rich array of plants and wildlife, particularly endemic and threatened plant species. Despite the long history of island biogeographic studies in the Aegean, similar studies in the Ionian remain limited, with the two island archipelagos rarely being compared. RESULTS: The Aegean and Ionian archipelagos share many features, especially regarding total plant diversity, but exhibit different patterns of endemism. For instance, when considering similarly sized islands, those in the Ionian host as many as, if not more, species compared to the Aegean. In contrast, the Ionian Islands are poor in endemics (particularly narrow range endemics, such as single island or regional endemics) and threatened taxa, compared to the Aegean Islands. In the Ionian, endemics only persist on the largest islands, and form a very small proportion of the species pool, compared to the Aegean archipelago. CONCLUSIONS: The lack of endemism might be attributed to the more recent separation of the Ionian Islands from the mainland and the shorter distance separating them from the mainland. In addition, the Ionian Islands receive higher levels of precipitation and are typically covered by denser and higher vegetation than the Aegean Islands. These conditions favour greater total species richness, but tend to lead to higher numbers of common species compared to threatened and endemic taxa. This study demonstrates that both isolation and precipitation serve as biodiversity drivers, influencing plant species diversity and endemism patterns, of the two Greek archipelagos.

Elevational gradient of vascular plant species richness and endemism in Crete--the effect of post-isolation mountain uplift on a continental island system.

Understanding diversity patterns along environmental gradients and their underlying mechanisms is a major topic in current biodiversity research. In this study, we investigate for the first time elevational patterns of vascular plant species richness and endemism on a long-isolated continental island (Crete) that has experienced extensive post-isolation mountain uplift. We used all available data on distribution and elevational ranges of the Cretan plants to interpolate their presence between minimum and maximum elevations in 100-m elevational intervals, along the entire elevational gradient of Crete (0-2400 m). We evaluate the influence of elevation, area, mid-domain effect, elevational Rapoport effect and the post-isolation mountain uplift on plant species richness and endemism elevational patterns. Furthermore, we test the influence of the island condition and the post-isolation mountain uplift to the elevational range sizes of the Cretan plants, using the Peloponnese as a continental control area. Total species richness monotonically decreases with increasing elevation, while endemic species richness has a unimodal response to elevation showing a peak at mid-elevation intervals. Area alone explains a significant amount of variation in species richness along the elevational gradient. Mid-domain effect is not the underlying mechanism of the elevational gradient of plant species richness in Crete, and Rapoport's rule only partly explains the observed patterns. Our results are largely congruent with the post-isolation uplift of the Cretan mountains and their colonization mainly by the available lowland vascular plant species, as high-elevation specialists are almost lacking from the Cretan flora. The increase in the proportion of Cretan endemics with increasing elevation can only be regarded as a result of diversification processes towards Cretan mountains (especially mid-elevation areas), supported by elevation-driven ecological isolation. Cretan plants have experienced elevational range expansion compared to the continental control area, as a result of ecological release triggered by increased species impoverishment with increasing elevation.