Relating SARS-CoV-2 shedding rate in wastewater to daily positive tests data: A consistent model based approach.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been engaged to complement medical surveillance and in some cases to also act as an early diagnosis indicator of viral spreading in the community. Most efforts worldwide by the scientific community and commercial companies focus on the formulation of protocols for SARS-CoV-2 analysis in wastewater and approaches addressing the quantitative relationship between WBE and medical surveillance are lacking. In the present study, a mathematical model is developed which uses as input the number of daily positive medical tests together with the highly non-linear shedding rate curve of individuals to estimate the evolution of global virus shedding rate in wastewater along calendar days. A comprehensive parametric study by the model using as input actual medical surveillance and WBE data for the city of Thessaloniki (~700,000 inhabitants, North Greece) during the outbreak of November 2020 reveals the conditions under which WBE can be used as an early warning tool for predicting pandemic outbreaks. It is shown that early warning capacity is different along the days of an outbreak and depends strongly on the number of days apart between the day of maximum shedding rate of infected individuals in their disease cycle and the day of their medical testing. The present data indicate for Thessaloniki an average early warning capacity of around 2 days. Moreover, the data imply that there exists a proportion between unreported cases (asymptomatic persons with mild symptoms that do not seek medical advice) and reported cases. The proportion increases with the number of reported cases. The early detection capacity of WBE improves substantially in the presence of an increasing number of unreported cases. For Thessaloniki at the peak of the pandemic in mid-November 2020, the number of unreported cases reached a maximum around 4 times the number of reported cases.

Full-genome evolutionary analysis of the novel corona virus (2019-nCoV) rejects the hypothesis of emergence as a result of a recent recombination event.

BACKGROUND: A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) associated with human to human transmission and severe human infection has been recently reported from the city of Wuhan in China. Our objectives were to characterize the genetic relationships of the 2019-nCoV and to search for putative recombination within the subgenus of sarbecovirus. METHODS: Putative recombination was investigated by RDP4 and Simplot v3.5.1 and discordant phylogenetic clustering in individual genomic fragments was confirmed by phylogenetic analysis using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. RESULTS: Our analysis suggests that the 2019-nCoV although closely related to BatCoV RaTG13 sequence throughout the genome (sequence similarity 96.3%), shows discordant clustering with the Bat_SARS-like coronavirus sequences. Specifically, in the 5'-part spanning the first 11,498 nucleotides and the last 3'-part spanning 24,341-30,696 positions, 2019-nCoV and RaTG13 formed a single cluster with Bat_SARS-like coronavirus sequences, whereas in the middle region spanning the 3'-end of ORF1a, the ORF1b and almost half of the spike regions, 2019-nCoV and RaTG13 grouped in a separate distant lineage within the sarbecovirus branch. CONCLUSIONS: The levels of genetic similarity between the 2019-nCoV and RaTG13 suggest that the latter does not provide the exact variant that caused the outbreak in humans, but the hypothesis that 2019-nCoV has originated from bats is very likely. We show evidence that the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) is not-mosaic consisting in almost half of its genome of a distinct lineage within the betacoronavirus. These genomic features and their potential association with virus characteristics and virulence in humans need further attention.

Experiences of Stigma and Support Reported by Participants in a Network Intervention to Reduce HIV Transmission in Athens, Greece; Odessa, Ukraine; and Chicago, Illinois.

A growing body of evidence suggests that network-based interventions to reduce HIV transmission and/or improve HIV-related health outcomes have an important place in public health efforts to move towards 90-90-90 goals. However, the social processes involved in network-based recruitment may pose a risk to participants of increasing HIV-related stigma if network recruitment causes HIV status to be assumed, inferred, or disclosed. On the other hand, the social processes involved in network-based recruitment to HIV testing may also encourage HIV-related social support. Yet despite the relevance of these processes to both network-based interventions and to other more common interventions (e.g., partner services), there is a dearth of literature that directly examines them among participants of such interventions. Furthermore, both HIV-related stigma and social support may influence participants' willingness and ability to recruit their network members to the study. This paper examines (1) the extent to which stigma and support were experienced by participants in the Transmission Reduction Intervention Project (TRIP), a risk network-tracing intervention aimed at locating recently HIV-infected and/or undiagnosed HIV-infected people and linking them to care in Athens, Greece; Odessa, Ukraine; and Chicago, Illinois; and (2) whether stigma and support predicted participant engagement in the intervention. Overall, experiences of stigma were infrequent and experiences of support frequent, with significant variation between study sites. Experiences and perceptions of HIV-related stigma did not change significantly between baseline and six-month follow-up for the full TRIP sample, and significantly decreased during the course of the study at the Chicago site. Experiences of HIV-related support significantly increased among recently-HIV-infected participants at all sites, and among all participants at the Odessa site. Both stigma and support were found to predict participants' recruitment of network members to the study at the Athens site, and to predict participants' interviewer-rated enthusiasm for naming and recruiting their network members at both the Athens and Odessa sites. These findings suggest that network-based interventions like TRIP which aim to reduce HIV transmission likely do not increase stigma-related risks to participants, and may even encourage increased social support among network members. However, the present study is limited by its associational design and by some variation in implementation by study site. Future research should directly assess contextual differences to improve understanding of the implications of site-level variation in stigma and support for the implementation of network-based interventions, given the finding that these constructs predict participants' recruitment of network members and engagement in the intervention, and thereby could limit network-based interventions' abilities to reach those most in need of HIV testing and care.

Prevalence of drug resistance among HIV-1 treatment-naive patients in Greece during 2003-2015: Transmitted drug resistance is due to onward transmissions.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of HIV-1 drug resistance among treatment-naïve patients ranges between 8.3% and 15% in Europe and North America. Previous studies showed that subtypes A and B were the most prevalent in the Greek HIV-1 epidemic. Our aim was to estimate the prevalence of resistance among drug naïve patients in Greece and to investigate the levels of transmission networking among those carrying resistant strains. METHODS: HIV-1 sequences were determined from 3428 drug naïve HIV-1 patients, in Greece sampled during 01/01/2003-30/6/2015. Transmission clusters were estimated by means of phylogenetic analysis including as references sequences from patients failing antiretroviral treatment in Greece and sequences sampled globally. RESULTS: The proportion of sequences with SDRMs was 5.98% (n=205). The most prevalent SDRMs were found for NNRTIs (3.76%), followed by N(t)RTIs (2.28%) and PIs (1.02%). The resistance prevalence was 22.2% based on all mutations associated with resistance estimated using the HIVdb resistance interpretation algorithm. Resistance to NNRTIs was the most common (16.9%) followed by PIs (4.9%) and N(t)RTIs (2.8%). The most frequently observed NNRTI resistant mutations were E138A (7.7%), E138Q (4.0%), K103N (2.3%) and V179D (1.3%). The majority of subtype A sequences (89.7%; 245 out of 273) with the dominant NNRTI resistance mutations (E138A, K103N, E138Q, V179D) were found to belong to monophyletic clusters suggesting regional dispersal. For subtype B, 68.1% (139 out of 204) of resistant strains (E138A, K103N, E138Q V179D) belonged to clusters. For N(t)RTI-resistance, evidence for regional dispersal was found for 27.3% and 21.6% of subtype A and B sequences, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The TDR rate based on the prevalence of SDRM is lower than the average rate in Europe. However, the prevalence of NNRTI resistance estimated using the HIVdb approach, is high in Greece and it is mostly due to onward transmissions among drug-naïve patients.

Re-analysis of unassigned hepatitis C virus (HCV) strain CYHCV025: Evidence of a highly divergent lineage within genotype 1.

HCV global sequences have been classified into 7 genotypes, several subtypes and a number of unassigned sequences. Our aim was to perform an in depth investigation of the taxonomic relationships of the unclassified CYHCV025 strain by means of phylogenetic analysis. Phylogenetic tree reconstructions were performed using ML methods on full-length genomic and partial HCV alignments. Phylogenetic analysis of full-length sequences revealed that CYHCV025 clustered close to the root node of genotype 1, showing distant genetic relationships to all previously classified subtypes and unclassified sequences. Single section analysis using the SSE showed that the distances between the query and all subtypes were much higher than distances within and between subtypes of genotype 1 (p<0.05). Recombination analysis revealed no evidence for intersubtype or genetic mixing between the query and the references from different genotype 1 subtypes. Different analyses revealed that CYHCV025 is the most genetically divergent within genotype 1, showing no high- or low-level clustering with any of the previous subtypes or unclassified sequences. Identification of a single lineage within a genotype without any late branching can be explained by "genetic isolation" until the late stage of HCV epidemic spread.

Evaluation of the limiting antigen avidity EIA (LAg) in people who inject drugs in Greece.

This analysis assessed the utility of the limiting antigen avidity assay (LAg). Samples of people who inject drugs (PWID) in Greece with documented duration of HIV-1 infection were tested by LAg. A LAg-normalized optical density (ODn) ⩽1·5 corresponds to a recency window period of 130 days. The proportion true recent (PTR) and proportion false recent (PFR) were estimated in 28 seroconverters and in 366 samples collected >6 months after HIV diagnosis, respectively. The association between LAg ODn and HIV RNA level was evaluated in 232 persons. The PTR was 85·7%. The PFR was 20·8% but fell to 5·9% in samples from treatment-naive individuals with long-standing infection (>1 year), and to 0 in samples with the circulating recombinant form CRF35 AD. A LAg-based algorithm with a PFR of 3·3% estimated a similar incidence trend to that calculated by analyses based on HIV-1 seroconversions. In recently infected persons indicated by LAg, the median log10 HIV RNA level was high (5·30, interquartile range 4·56-5·90). LAg can help identify highly infectious HIV(+) individuals as it accurately identifies recent infections and is correlated with the HIV RNA level. It can also produce reliable estimates of HIV-1 incidence.

The application of HIV molecular epidemiology to public health.

HIV is responsible for one of the largest viral pandemics in human history. Despite a concerted global response for prevention and treatment, the virus persists. Thus, urgent public health action, utilizing novel interventions, is needed to prevent future transmission events, critical to eliminating HIV. For public health planning to prove effective and successful, we need to understand the dynamics of regional epidemics and to intervene appropriately. HIV molecular epidemiology tools as implemented in phylogenetic, phylodynamic and phylogeographic analyses have proven to be powerful tools in public health planning across many studies. Numerous applications with HIV suggest that molecular methods alone or in combination with mathematical modelling can provide inferences about the transmission dynamics, critical epidemiological parameters (prevalence, incidence, effective number of infections, Re, generation times, time between infection and diagnosis), or the spatiotemporal characteristics of epidemics. Molecular tools have been used to assess the impact of an intervention and outbreak investigation which are of great public health relevance. In some settings, molecular sequence data may be more readily available than HIV surveillance data, and can therefore allow for molecular analyses to be conducted more easily. Nonetheless, classic methods have an integral role in monitoring and evaluation of public health programmes, and should supplement emerging techniques from the field of molecular epidemiology. Importantly, molecular epidemiology remains a promising approach in responding to viral diseases.

Primary resistance to integrase strand-transfer inhibitors in Europe.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to define the natural genotypic variation of the HIV-1 integrase gene across Europe for epidemiological surveillance of integrase strand-transfer inhibitor (InSTI) resistance. METHODS: This was a multicentre, cross-sectional study within the European SPREAD HIV resistance surveillance programme. A representative set of 300 samples was selected from 1950 naive HIV-positive subjects newly diagnosed in 2006-07. The prevalence of InSTI resistance was evaluated using quality-controlled baseline population sequencing of integrase. Signature raltegravir, elvitegravir and dolutegravir resistance mutations were defined according to the IAS-USA 2014 list. In addition, all integrase substitutions relative to HXB2 were identified, including those with a Stanford HIVdb score ≥ 10 to at least one InSTI. To rule out circulation of minority InSTI-resistant HIV, 65 samples were selected for 454 integrase sequencing. RESULTS: For the population sequencing analysis, 278 samples were retrieved and successfully analysed. No signature resistance mutations to any of the InSTIs were detected. Eleven (4%) subjects had mutations at resistance-associated positions with an HIVdb score ≥ 10. Of the 56 samples successfully analysed with 454 sequencing, no InSTI signature mutations were detected, whereas integrase substitutions with an HIVdb score ≥ 10 were found in 8 (14.3%) individuals. CONCLUSIONS: No signature InSTI-resistant variants were circulating in Europe before the introduction of InSTIs. However, polymorphisms contributing to InSTI resistance were not rare. As InSTI use becomes more widespread, continuous surveillance of primary InSTI resistance is warranted. These data will be key to modelling the kinetics of InSTI resistance transmission in Europe in the coming years.

High prevalence of the UGT1A1*28 variant in HIV-infected individuals in Greece.

Hyperbilirubinaemia with or without jaundice is one of the side effects of atazanavir boosted with low-dose ritonavir (ATV/rit) related to the drug plasma levels, as a result of its metabolism by UGT1A1 - uridine diphosphate-glucuronosyl transferase. Genotyping for UGT1A1*28 before initiation of antiretroviral therapy containing atazanavir may aid in identifying individuals at risk of hyperbilirubinaemia. Our objective was to estimate the prevalence of the UGTA1A1*28 polymorphism in HIV-infected individuals in Greece and to determine its potential association with hyperbilirubinaemia in patients receiving ATV/rit. The prevalence of the UGTA1A1*28 variant was estimated in 79 HIV-infected patients prior to the administration of the first-line treatment. The UGTA1A1*28 variant was detected in 46 out of 79 individuals (58.2%). Antiretroviral therapy was administered to 64/79 patients (81%). Among them, 26/64 (40.6%) received ATV/rit. Of the ATV/rit-treated patients, 14 were found to be carriers of the UGT1A1*28 variant (54%), and maximum serum bilirubin levels were significantly higher in the carrier population (4.71 vs. 2.69 mg/dL, p = 0.026). In 50% of the population, maximum levels were recorded in the first month of follow-up. Although carriage of UGT1A1 is linked with the development of hyperbilirubinaemia, the implementation of a pharmacogenomic approach in clinical practice cannot yet be recommended as a standard of care.

Renal transplantation from hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-positive donors to HBsAg-negative recipients: a case of post-transplant fulminant hepatitis associated with an extensively mutated hepatitis B virus strain and review of the current literature.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to present a fatal case of fulminant hepatitis B (FHB) that developed in a renal transplant recipient, immunized against hepatitis B, 1 year post transplantation. METHODS: Polymerase chain reaction amplification and full genome sequencing were performed to investigate whether specific mutations were associated with hepatitis B virus (HBV) transmission and FHB. RESULTS: Molecular analysis revealed multiple mutations in various open reading frames of HBV, the most important being the G145R escape mutation and a frameshift mutation-insertion (1838insA) within the pre-C/C reading frame. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight the possibility of developing FHB, despite previous immunization against HBV or administration of hyperimmune gammaglobulin, because of the selection of escape virus mutants. The current literature and guidelines regarding renal transplantation from hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-positive to HBsAg-negative patients were also reviewed.

HIV-1 outbreak among injecting drug users in Greece, 2011: a preliminary report.

A significant increase (more than 10-fold) in the number of newly diagnosed HIV-1 infections among injecting drug users (IDUs) was observed in Greece during the first seven months of 2011. Molecular epidemiology results revealed that a large proportion (96%) of HIV-1 sequences from IDUs sampled in 2011 fall within phylogenetic clusters suggesting high levels of transmission networking. Cases originated from diverse places outside Greece supporting the potential role of immigrant IDUs in the initiation of this outbreak.

HIV/HBV co-infection and rate of antiretroviral treatment change after highly active antiretroviral treatment initiation in a cohort of HIV-infected patients in Greece.

The current study investigated the impact of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/hepatitis B virus (HBV) co-infection on the rate of change of antiretroviral drugs after the initiation of highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART). The data on 1425 HIV-positive patients with recorded serology for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) were retrospectively analysed. The estimated rate of treatment change was slightly higher in the HBsAg-positive group (0.57 per year) compared with the HBsAg-negative group (0.50 per year). Although this difference was insignificant in multivariable modelling, the confidence intervals of the estimates barely included unity. Antiretroviral drug family, calendar period, prior exposure to antiretrovirals and the diagnosis of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome were independently associated with the number of drug alterations. A slight impact of co-infection on the frequency of treatment change after the beginning of HAART cannot be excluded. However, the paucity of studies on this issue necessitates the conduct of further research.

HIV-1 drug-resistance patterns among patients on failing treatment in a large number of European countries.

BACKGROUND: Information about patterns of HIV-1 drug resistance among treatment-exposed patients is crucial for the development of novel effective drugs. Currently no system exists that monitors patterns of resistance in patients failing therapy. METHODS: The study included 1,988 HIV-1 sequences from patients experiencing therapy failure collected between 2000 and 2004 in 15 European countries. Genotypic resistance was interpreted using the ANRS algorithm. Phenotypic resistance was predicted using the Virco geno- to phenotype system. RESULTS: 80.7% of the sequences included at least one drug-resistance mutation. Mutations were found for NRTIs (73.5%), NNRTIs (48.5%), and protease inhibitors (35.8%). Ninety percent of sequences with genotypic resistance harbored M184V, M41L, K103N, D67N, and/or T215Y. Among NRTIs, resistance was most frequently predicted for lamivudine. About half of all sequences had reduced susceptibility for NNRTIs. Resistance to most boosted protease inhibitors was found in < 25%. No sequence had resistance to all currently available drugs. CONCLUSION: Levels of resistance among patients with therapy failure were high. The patterns of resistance reflect resistance to drugs available for a longer time. Fully suppressive regimens can be designed even for the most mutated HIV because boosted protease inhibitors have remained active against most circulating viruses and new drug classes have become available.

Successful virological outcome in an HIV-infected individual with a three-class resistant variant and an insertion in the protease genome with a Tipranavir based regimen.

BACKGROUND: Multi-class HIV-1 resistant variants are not rare nowadays. Genotypic and phenotypic resistance testing (including virtual phenotype) constitutes an important tool for optimizing antiretroviral treatment. AIM: To report a case of discrepancy between resistance interpretation and virological outcome. METHODS: A case of a multi-drug experienced patient is presented. Genotypic and/or virtual phenotypic testing analysis was used. RESULTS: The patient after 10 years of antiretroviral therapy with 11 different regimens unable to produce full virological suppression and with a rapidly declining CD4 count, achieved a successful virological outcome with a scheme containing Tipranavir boosted with low dose of ritonavir. Of note, the patient was screened for Tipranavir 1182.48 study and was found ineligible after genotypic analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Virologic suppression was achieved despite the fact that neither an active agent was included in the backbone regimen nor the resistance profile could ensure the effectiveness of Tipranavir.

Quantitative detection of the M204V hepatitis B virus minor variants by amplification refractory mutation system real-time PCR combined with molecular beacon technology.

Mutations in the highly conserved tyrosine-methionine-aspartate-aspartate (YMDD) motif are frequently associated with resistance to antivirals and represent a major concern in the treatment of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. Conventional methods fail to detect minority populations of drug-resistant viral quasispecies if they represent less than 25% of the total sample virus population. The amplification refractory mutation system real-time PCR (ARMS RT-PCR) was combined with molecular beacon technology using the LightCycler system. The samples from HBV patients selected for assay evaluation included (i) 57 samples from treatment-naïve patients for biological discriminatory ability (cutoff) estimation, (ii) 12 samples from patients with treatment failure that were M204V positive by sequencing, and (iii) 13 samples from patients with treatment failure that were negative for mutation at codon 204 by sequencing. The discriminatory ability of the assay was 0.25% when tested with laboratory-synthesized DNA target sequences. The median mutant-to-wild-type ratio for samples from naive patients tested positive for the wild type and for mutant variants was 0.01% (5th and 95th percentiles = 0.0001 and 0.04%, respectively). A value of 0.04% was selected as the biological cutoff of the assay of clinical samples. In all samples M204V positive by sequencing (12/12), the mutant variant was detected as the predominant population (range, 82.76 to 99.43%). Interestingly, in 5 (38%) of 13 samples negative by sequencing, the M204V variant was detected at a ratio above the biological cutoff (0.05 to 28%). The assay represents an efficient technique for the early detection and quantification of M204V variants before mutant strains emerge to dominate the population.

Development and assessment of a multiplex real-time PCR assay for quantification of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 DNA.

Previous studies showed that high levels of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) DNA are associated with a faster progression to AIDS, an increased risk of death, and a higher risk of HIV RNA rebound in patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy. Our objective was to develop and assess a highly sensitive real-time multiplex PCR assay for the quantification of HIV-1 DNA (RTMP-HIV) based on molecular beacons. HIV-1 DNA quantification was carried out by RTMP in a LightCycler 2.0 apparatus. HIV-1 DNA was quantified in parallel with CCR5 as a reference gene, and reported values are numbers of HIV-1 DNA copies/10(6) peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). The clinical sensitivity of the assay was assessed for 115 newly diagnosed HIV-1-infected individuals. The analytical sensitivity was estimated to be 12.5 copies of HIV-1 DNA per 10(6) PBMCs, while the clinical sensitivity was 100%, with levels ranging from 1.23 to 4.25 log(10) HIV-1 DNA copies/10(6) PBMCs. In conclusion, we developed and assessed a new RTMP-HIV assay based on molecular beacons, using a LightCycler 2.0 instrument. This multiplex assay has comparable sensitivity, reproducibility, and accuracy to single real-time PCR assays.

HIV epidemiology in Greece.

Greece has experienced early the effect of HIV/AIDS on morbidity and mortality. The era of highly active antiretroviral therapy has alleviated many of the consequences of the epidemic, however, HIV infection remains an issue of utmost significance. Men who have sex with men are the driving force of the HIV epidemic in Greece followed by heterosexually-infected individuals, while infections among injecting drug users remain at low levels. HIV-1 molecular epidemiology studies reveal a high genetic heterogeneity amongst the circulating strains in Greece. The epidemic began with subtype B, as in most of the European countries, however, subtype A was detected at a high prevalence among the newly diagnosed HIV-1-infected individuals in recent years. HIV requires an effective and sustained response meeting the needs of vulnerable subpopulations.

The phylogenetic information profile of HIV-1 and the degradation effect of recombination.

HIV-1, while known to recombine frequently and evolve rapidly, is one of the most sequenced organisms. The availability of many and long sequences (almost full-length) renders HIV-1 as a good model for studying theoretical predictions linked to evolution and phylogenetic inferences. Here we study the effects of rapid and through-recombination evolution on phylogenetic information in order to confirm theoretical predictions of the characteristics of phylogenetic information on a real dataset. Firstly we study the fluctuation of the phylogenetic information along the HIV-1 genome showing that genomic regions such as the first part and the last part of the pol gene contain less phylogenetic information, while the vpr, vpu and the first exon of the tat gene contain more phylogenetic information compared to the rest of the genome. Moreover, we provide evidence that phylogenetic information is correlated to the sequence similarity of the dataset used and is degraded by the effect of recombination.