Trivariate Joint Modeling for Family Data with Longitudinal Counts, Recurrent Events and a Terminal Event with Application to Lynch Syndrome.

Trivariate joint modeling for longitudinal count data, recurrent events, and a terminal event for family data has increased interest in medical studies. For example, families with Lynch syndrome (LS) are at high risk of developing colorectal cancer (CRC), where the number of polyps and the frequency of colonoscopy screening visits are highly associated with the risk of CRC among individuals and families. To assess how screening visits influence polyp detection, which in turn influences time to CRC, we propose a clustered trivariate joint model. The proposed model facilitates longitudinal count data that are zero-inflated and over-dispersed and invokes individual-specific and family-specific random effects to account for dependence among individuals and families. We formulate our proposed model as a latent Gaussian model to use the Bayesian estimation approach with the integrated nested Laplace approximation algorithm and evaluate its performance using simulation studies. Our trivariate joint model is applied to a series of 18 families from Newfoundland, with the occurrence of CRC taken as the terminal event, the colonoscopy screening visits as recurrent events, and the number of polyps detected at each visit as zero-inflated count data with overdispersion. We showed that our trivariate model fits better than alternative bivariate models and that the cluster effects should not be ignored when analyzing family data. Finally, the proposed model enables us to quantify heterogeneity across families and individuals in polyp detection and CRC risk, thus helping to identify individuals and families who would benefit from more intensive screening visits.

Heart failure events in randomized controlled trials for adults receiving maintenance dialysis: a meta-epidemiologic study.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Heart failure is characterized as cardiac dysfunction resulting in elevated cardiac filling pressures with symptoms and signs of congestion. Distinguishing heart failure from other causes of similar presentations in patients with kidney failure is challenging but necessary, and is needed in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to accurately estimate treatment effects. The objective of this study was to review heart failure events, their diagnostic criteria and adjudication in RCTs of patients with kidney failure treated with dialysis. We hypothesized that heart failure events, diagnostic criteria and adjudication were infrequently reported in RCTs in dialysis. METHODS: We conducted a meta-epidemiologic systematic review of RCTs from high impact medical, nephrology and cardiology journals from 2000 to 2020. RCTs were eligible if they enrolled adults receiving maintenance dialysis for kidney failure and evaluated any intervention. Results. Of 561 RCTs in patients receiving dialysis, 36 (6.4%) reported heart failure events as primary (10, 27.8%) or secondary (31, 86.1%) outcomes. 10 of the 36 (27.8%) RCTs provided heart failure event diagnostic criteria and 5 of these 10 (50%) adjudicated heart failure events. These 10 RCTs included event diagnostic criteria for heart failure or heart failure hospitalizations, and their criteria included dyspnea (5/10), edema (2/10), rales/crackles (4/10), chest x-ray pulmonary edema or vascular redistribution (4/10), treatment in an acute setting (6/10) and ultrafiltration or dialysis (4/10). No study explicitly distinguished heart failure from volume overload secondary to non-adherence or underdialysis. CONCLUSION: Overall, we found that heart failure events are infrequently reported in RCTs in dialysis and are heterogeneously defined. Further research is required to develop standardized diagnostic criteria that are practical and meaningful to patients and clinicians.

Safety Endpoints With Vadadustat Versus Darbepoetin Alfa in Patients With Non-Dialysis-Dependent CKD: A Post Hoc Regional Analysis of the PRO2TECT Randomized Clinical Trial of ESA-Treated Patients.

Rationale & Objective: In the PRO2TECT trials, vadadustat was found to be noninferior to darbepoetin alfa in hematologic efficacy but not for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; all-cause death or nonfatal myocardial infarction or stroke) in patients with non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease (NDD-CKD). We investigated the regional differences in MACE in the PRO2TECT trials. Study Design: Phase 3, global, open-label, randomized, active-controlled clinical trial. Setting & Participants: A total of 1,725 erythropoiesis-stimulating agent (ESA)-treated patients with anemia and NDD-CKD. Intervention: 1:1 randomization to receive vadadustat or darbepoetin alfa. Outcomes: The primary safety end point was the time to first MACE. Results: At baseline, patients in Europe (n=444) were primarily treated with darbepoetin alfa, showed higher proportions on low ESA doses (<90 U/kg/wk epoetin alfa equivalents) with a hemoglobin concentration of ≥10 g/dL compared with patients in the US (n=665) and non-US/non-Europe (n=614) regions. The MACE rates per 100 person-years in the 3 vadadustat groups across regions were 14.5 in the US, 11.6 in Europe, and 10.0 in the non-US/non-Europe groups, whereas event rates in the darbepoetin alfa group were considerably lower in Europe than in the US and non-US/non-Europe groups (6.7 vs 13.3 and 10.5, respectively). The overall hazard ratio for MACE for vadadustat vs darbepoetin alpha was 1.16; 95% CI, 0.93-1.45, but varied by geographical region, with a greater hazard ratio seen in Europe (US, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.78-1.46; Europe, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.24-3.39; non-US/non-Europe, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.60-1.37); interaction between study treatment and geographical region, P = 0.07). In Europe, ESA rescue was associated with a higher risk of MACE in both groups. Limitations: Several analyses are exploratory. Conclusions: In this trial, there was a low risk of MACE in the darbepoetin alfa group in Europe. Patients in Europe were generally on low doses of ESA, with hemoglobin already within target range. The low risk of MACE may have been related to a limited need to switch and titrate darbepoetin alfa compared with the non-US/non-Europe group. Funding: Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02680574.

Safety Endpoints With Vadadustat Versus Darbepoetin Alfa in Patients With Non-Dialysis-Dependent CKD: A Post Hoc Regional Analysis of the PRO2TECT Randomized Clinical Trial of ESA-Naïve Patients.

Rationale & Objective: Prespecified analyses of the PRO2TECT trials comparing the safety of the oral hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase inhibitor vadadustat with darbepoetin alfa in patients with non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease (NDD-CKD) found no difference in major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; death from any cause or nonfatal myocardial infarction or stroke) among US patients and a higher risk among patients treated with vadadustat outside the United States. We investigated regional differences in MACE in the PRO2TECT trial that enrolled 1,751 patients previously untreated with erythropoiesis-stimulating agents. Study Design: Phase 3, global, open-label, randomized, active-controlled clinical trial. Setting and Participants: Erythropoiesis-stimulating agent-untreated patients with anemia and NDD-CKD. Intervention: Eligible patients were randomized 1:1 to receive vadadustat or darbepoetin alfa. Outcomes: The primary safety end point was time to first MACE. Secondary safety end points included time to first expanded MACE (MACE plus hospitalization for heart failure or thromboembolic event, excluding vascular access thrombosis). Results: In the non-US/non-Europe region, there was a higher proportion of patients with baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) level of ≤10 mL/min/1.73 m2 in the vadadustat group [96 (34.7%)] than in the darbepoetin alfa group [66 (24.0%)]. In this region, there were 21 excess MACEs reported in the vadadustat group [78 events (n=276)] versus the darbepoetin alfa [57 events (n=275)], including 13 excess noncardiovascular deaths, largely from kidney failure. Noncardiovascular deaths were concentrated in Brazil and South Africa, which enrolled higher proportions of patients with an eGFR of ≤10 mL/min/1.73 m2 and who may not have had access to dialysis. Limitations: Different regional treatment patterns of patients with NDD-CKD. Conclusions: The higher MACE rate in the non-US/non-Europe vadadustat group may have been partly because of imbalances in the baseline eGFR level in countries where dialysis was not uniformly available resulting in many kidney-related deaths.

Associations between polymorphisms in leptin and leptin receptor genes and colorectal cancer survival.

OBJECTIVE: Leptin (LEP) is an obesity-associated adipokine associated with tumor cell growth. We examined the relevance of genetic variants of LEP and leptin receptor (LEPR) to colorectal cancer (CRC) survival by using data from the Newfoundland Familial Colorectal Cancer Study. METHODS: A total of 532 patients newly diagnosed with CRC between 1997 and 2003 were followed up until April 2010. Data on their demographics and lifestyles were collected via questionnaires. Genotyping of blood samples was performed with the Illumina Human Omni-Quad Bead chip. Multivariable Cox models were used to assess the relationships of 35 tag single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in LEP and LEPR with overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), and CRC-specific survival. RESULTS: At the gene level, LEP was associated with DFS (P = 0.017), and LEPR was associated with both DFS (P = 0.021) and CRC-specific survival (P = 0.013) in patients with CRC. In single-SNP analysis, LEP rs11763517, LEPR rs9436301, and LEPR rs7602 were associated with DFS after adjustment for multiple testing. The LEPR haplotypes G-C-T (rs7534511-rs9436301-rs1887285) and A-A-G (rs7602-rs970467-rs9436748) were associated with prolonged OS among patients with CRC overall (G-C-T: HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.43-0.93; A-A-G: HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.38-0.91) and those diagnosed with colon cancer (G-C-T: HR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.34-0.86; A-A-G: HR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.29-0.83). Similar results were observed for DFS. Moreover, significant interactions were found among LEPR rs7602 (A vs. G), LEPR rs1171278 (T vs. C), red meat intake, and BMI status: the associations between these variants and prolonged DFS were limited to patients with below-median red meat consumption and body mass index (BMI) < 25 kg/m2. CONCLUSIONS: Polymorphic variations in the LEP and LEPR genes were associated with survival of patients after CRC diagnosis. The LEP/LEPR-CRC survival association was modified by participants' red meat intake and BMI.

Vadadustat for treatment of anemia in patients with dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease receiving peritoneal dialysis.

BACKGROUND: Hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase inhibitors such as vadadustat may provide an oral alternative to injectable erythropoiesis-stimulating agents for treating anemia in patients receiving peritoneal dialysis. In two randomized (1:1), global, phase 3, open-label, sponsor-blind, parallel-group, active-controlled noninferiority trials in patients with dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease (INNO2VATE), vadadustat was noninferior to darbepoetin alfa with respect to cardiovascular safety and hematological efficacy. Vadadustat's effects in patients receiving only peritoneal dialysis is unclear. METHODS: We conducted a post hoc analysis of patients in the INNO2VATE trials receiving peritoneal dialysis at baseline. The prespecified primary safety endpoint was time to first major cardiovascular event (MACE; defined as all-cause mortality or nonfatal myocardial infarction or stroke). The primary efficacy endpoint was mean change in hemoglobin from baseline to the primary evaluation period (Weeks 24-36). RESULTS: Of the 3923 patients randomized in the two INNO2VATE trials, 309 were receiving peritoneal dialysis (vadadustat, n = 152; darbepoetin alfa, n = 157) at baseline. Time to first MACE was similar in the vadadustat and darbepoetin alfa groups [hazard ratio 1.10; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62, 1.93]. In patients receiving peritoneal dialysis, the difference in mean change in hemoglobin concentrations was -0.10 g/dL (95% CI -0.33, 0.12) in the primary evaluation period. The incidence of treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) was 88.2% versus 95.5%, and serious TEAEs was 52.6% versus 73.2% in the vadadustat and darbepoetin alfa groups, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In the subgroup of patients receiving peritoneal dialysis in the phase 3 INNO2VATE trials, safety and efficacy of vadadustat were similar to darbepoetin alfa.

Multifactor dimensionality reduction method identifies novel SNP interactions in the WNT protein interaction networks that are associated with recurrence risk in colorectal cancer.

Background: Interactions among genetic variants are rarely studied but may explain a part of the variability in patient outcomes. Objectives: In this study, we aimed to identify 1 to 3 way interactions among SNPs from five Wnt protein interaction networks that predict the 5-year recurrence risk in a cohort of stage I-III colorectal cancer patients. Methods: 423 patients recruited to the Newfoundland Familial Colorectal Cancer Registry were included. Five Wnt family member proteins (Wnt1, Wnt2, Wnt5a, Wnt5b, and Wnt11) were selected. The BioGRID database was used to identify the proteins interacting with each of these proteins. Genotypes of the SNPs located in the interaction network genes were retrieved from a genome-wide SNP genotype data previously obtained in the patient cohort. The GMDR 0.9 program was utilized to examine 1-, 2-, and 3-SNP interactions using a 5-fold cross validation step. Top GMDR 0.9 models were assessed by permutation testing and, if significant, prognostic associations were verified by multivariable logistic regression models. Results: GMDR 0.9 has identified novel 1, 2, and 3-way SNP interactions associated with 5-year recurrence risk in colorectal cancer. Nine of these interactions were multi loci interactions (2-way or 3-way). Identified interaction models were able to distinguish patients based on their 5-year recurrence-free status in multivariable regression models. The significance of interactions was the highest in the 3-SNP models. Several of the identified SNPs were eQTLs, indicating potential biological roles of the genes they were associated with in colorectal cancer recurrence. Conclusions: We identified novel interacting genetic variants that associate with 5-year recurrence risk in colorectal cancer. A significant portion of the genes identified were previously linked to colorectal cancer pathogenesis or progression. These variants and genes are of interest for future functional and prognostic studies. Our results provide further evidence for the utility of GMDR models in identifying novel prognostic biomarkers and the biological importance of the Wnt pathways in colorectal cancer.

Predictors of quality of life in patients within the first year of commencing haemodialysis based on baseline data from the PIVOTAL trial and associations with the study outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Impaired quality of life is common in patients with end-stage kidney disease. We report the baseline quality of life measures in participants from the PIVOTAL randomized controlled trial and the potential relationship with the primary outcome (all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure hospitalisation), and associations with key baseline characteristics. METHODS: This was a post hoc analysis of 2141 patients enrolled in the PIVOTAL trial. Quality of life was measured using EQ5D index, Visual Analogue Scale, and the KD-QoL [Physical Component Score and Mental Component Score]. RESULTS: Mean baseline EQ5D index and visual analogue scale scores were 0.68 and 60.7 and 33.7 (Physical Component Score) and 46.0 (Mental Component Score), respectively. Female sex, higher Body Mass Index, diabetes mellitus, history of myocardial infarction, stroke or heart failure were associated with significantly worse EQ5D index and visual analogue scale. Higher C-reactive protein levels and lower transferrin saturation were associated with worse quality of life. Haemoglobin was not an independent predictor of quality of life. A lower transferrin saturation was an independent predictor of worse physical component score. A higher C-reactive protein level was associated with most aspects of worse quality of life. Impaired functional status was associated with mortality. CONCLUSION: Quality of life was impaired in patients starting haemodialysis. A higher C-reactive protein level level was a consistent independent predictor of the majority of worse quality of life. Transferrin saturation ≤ 20% was associated with worse physical component score of quality of life. Baseline quality of life was predictive of all-cause mortality and the primary outcome measure. EUDRACT REGISTRATION NUMBER: 2013-002267-25.

The Roles of MTRR and MTHFR Gene Polymorphisms in Colorectal Cancer Survival.

BACKGROUND: Paradoxically epidemiological data illustrate a negative relationship between dietary folate intake and colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. The occurrence and progression of CRC may be influenced by variants in some key enzyme coding genes in the folate metabolic pathway. We investigated the correlation between genetic variants in methionine synthase reductase (MTRR) and methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) and CRC survival. METHODS: This study used data collected from the Newfoundland Familial Colorectal Cancer Study. A total of 532 patients diagnosed with CRC for the first time from 1999 to 2003 were enrolled, and their mortality were tracked until April 2010. DNA samples were genotyped by Illumina's integrated quantum 1 million chip. Cox models were established to assess 33 tag single-nucleotide polymorphisms in MTRR and MTHFR in relation to overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS) and CRC-specific survival. RESULTS: The MTRR and MTHFR genes were associated with DFS and CRC-specific survival in CRC patients at the gene level. After multiple comparison adjustment, MTRR rs1801394 A (vs. G) allele was associated with increased DFS (p = 0.024), while MTHRT rs3737966 (G vs. A), rs4846049 (T vs. G), rs1476413 (A vs. G), rs1801131 (C vs. A), rs12121543 (A vs. C), rs1801133 (C vs. T), rs4846052 (T vs. C), rs2066471 (A vs. G) and rs7533315 (T vs. C) were related to worse CRC-specific survival. Additionally, significant interactions were seen among pre-diagnostic alcohol consumption with MTRR rs1801394, rs3776467, rs326124, rs162040, and rs3776455, with superior OS associated with those protective variant alleles limited to patients with alcohol consumption under the median. The MTHFR rs3737966 (G vs. A) allele seemed to be detrimental to CRC survival only among subjects with fruit intake below the median. CONCLUSIONS: Polymorphic variants in MTRR and MTHFR genes that code for key enzymes for folate metabolism may be associated with survival in patients with CRC. The gene-CRC outcome association seems modulated by alcohol drinking and fruit intake.

Overall Adverse Event Profile of Vadadustat versus Darbepoetin Alfa for the Treatment of Anemia Associated with Chronic Kidney Disease in Phase 3 Trials.

INTRODUCTION: Anemia frequently occurs in chronic kidney disease (CKD), is associated with poor quality of life and cardiovascular outcomes, and its treatment represents a considerable economic burden to the healthcare system. Although effective, the current standard of care for the treatment of anemia in chronic kidney disease patients with erythropoiesis-stimulating agents requires chronic/ongoing injections, making the treatment less accessible or desirable to patients not treated by in-center maintenance hemodialysis. Furthermore, safety concerns, including an increased risk of cardiovascular events and mortality, have emerged from their use in studies targeting hemoglobin concentrations in the normal or near-normal range. The orally active hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase inhibitor vadadustat may offer advantages over erythropoiesis-stimulating agents by correcting anemia via pathways activating endogenous erythropoietin production. METHODS: To comprehensively analyze the safety profile of vadadustat in patients with dialysis-dependent and non-dialysis-dependent CKD-related anemia, we pooled the safety populations from each of the four trials in the phase 3 clinical program (n = 7,373) and compared the risk of treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) for each treatment arm. RESULTS: In patients randomized to vadadustat versus darbepoetin alfa, rates of TEAEs (88.9% vs. 89.3%), treatment-emergent serious adverse events (58.0% vs. 59.3%), and TEAEs leading to death (16.1% vs. 16.2%) were similar, as were rates of adverse events of special interest, including cardiovascular-, hepatic-, and neoplasm-related adverse events. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION: Among patients with CKD-related anemia treated with vadadustat, we observed similar rates of adverse events relative to those treated with darbepoetin alfa.

Examining SNP-SNP interactions and risk of clinical outcomes in colorectal cancer using multifactor dimensionality reduction based methods.

Background: SNP interactions may explain the variable outcome risk among colorectal cancer patients. Examining SNP interactions is challenging, especially with large datasets. Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MDR)-based programs may address this problem. Objectives: 1) To compare two MDR-based programs for their utility; and 2) to apply these programs to sets of MMP and VEGF-family gene SNPs in order to examine their interactions in relation to colorectal cancer survival outcomes. Methods: This study applied two data reduction methods, Cox-MDR and GMDR 0.9, to study one to three way SNP interactions. Both programs were run using a 5-fold cross validation step and the top models were verified by permutation testing. Prognostic associations of the SNP interactions were verified using multivariable regression methods. Eight datasets, including SNPs from MMP family genes (n = 201) and seven sets of VEGF-family interaction networks (n = 1,517 SNPs) were examined. Results: ∼90 million potential interactions were examined. Analyses in the MMP and VEGF gene family datasets found several novel 1- to 3-way SNP interactions. These interactions were able to distinguish between the patients with different outcome risks (regression p-values 0.03-2.2E-09). The strongest association was detected for a 3-way interaction including CHRM3.rs665159_EPN1.rs6509955_PTGER3.rs1327460 variants. Conclusion: Our work demonstrates the utility of data reduction methods while identifying potential prognostic markers in colorectal cancer.

Association between Dietary Fiber Intake and Mortality among Colorectal Cancer Survivors: Results from the Newfoundland Familial Colorectal Cancer Cohort Study and a Meta-Analysis of Prospective Studies.

We examined dietary fiber intake for its relevance to Colorectal cancer (CRC) survival in a cohort of CRC patients and a meta-analysis including results from four prospective cohort studies. We analyzed 504 CRC patients enrolled in the Newfoundland Familial Colorectal Cancer Study (NFCCS) who were newly diagnosed with CRC between 1999 and 2003. Follow-up for deaths was through April 2010. All participants completed a self-administered food frequency questionnaire to evaluate their dietary intakes one year before diagnosis. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to explore the associations of dietary fiber intake with all-cause mortality and CRC-specific mortality. In the meta-analysis, we identified prospective cohort studies published between January 1991 and December 2021 by searching PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library. Fixed-effects or random-effects models were used to combine the study-specific hazard ratio (HR) from our original analysis and three other cohorts. In the NFCCS, we found that CRC patients with the second quartile of dietary fiber intake had a 42% lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 0.58, 95% CI: 0.35-0.98) and 58% lower risk of CRC-specific mortality (HR: 0.42, 95% CI: 0.21-0.87) compared with those with the lowest quartile. In the meta-analysis, a similar inverse association between dietary fiber and total mortality was detected among CRC patients; each 10 g/day increase in dietary fiber intake was associated with a 16% decreased risk of total mortality. The dose-response meta-analysis showed a linear relationship between dietary fiber intake and all-cause mortality, with no sign of a plateau. For CRC-specific mortality, intriguingly, the benefit associated with increasing dietary fiber intake achieved its maximum at approximately 22 g/day, and no further reduction in CRC-specific mortality was observed beyond this intake level. Our results suggest that high dietary fiber intake may be associated with prolonged survival among CRC patients. Our findings add to the sparse literature on the role of dietary fiber in CRC survival.

Erythropoietic effects of vadadustat in patients with anemia associated with chronic kidney disease.

Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) develop anemia largely because of inappropriately low erythropoietin (EPO) production and insufficient iron available to erythroid precursors. In four phase 3, randomized, open-label, clinical trials in dialysis-dependent and non-dialysis-dependent patients with CKD and anemia, the hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase inhibitor, vadadustat, was noninferior to the erythropoiesis-stimulating agent, darbepoetin alfa, in increasing and maintaining target hemoglobin concentrations. In these trials, vadadustat increased the concentrations of serum EPO, the numbers of circulating erythrocytes, and the numbers of circulating reticulocytes. Achieved hemoglobin concentrations were similar in patients treated with either vadadustat or darbepoetin alfa, but compared with patients receiving darbepoetin alfa, those receiving vadadustat had erythrocytes with increased mean corpuscular volume and mean corpuscular hemoglobin, while the red cell distribution width was decreased. Increased serum transferrin concentrations, as measured by total iron-binding capacity, combined with stable serum iron concentrations, resulted in decreased transferrin saturation in patients randomized to vadadustat compared with patients randomized to darbepoetin alfa. The decreases in transferrin saturation were associated with relatively greater declines in serum hepcidin and ferritin in patients receiving vadadustat compared with those receiving darbepoetin alfa. These results for serum transferrin saturation, hepcidin, ferritin, and erythrocyte indices were consistent with improved iron availability in the patients receiving vadadustat. Thus, overall, vadadustat had beneficial effects on three aspects of erythropoiesis in patients with anemia associated with CKD: increased endogenous EPO production, improved iron availability to erythroid cells, and increased reticulocytes in the circulation.

Risk Stratification for Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer Using a Combination of Genetic and Environmental Risk Scores: An International Multi-Center Study.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) among individuals aged younger than 50 years has been increasing. As screening guidelines lower the recommended age of screening initiation, concerns including the burden on screening capacity and costs have been recognized, suggesting that an individualized approach may be warranted. We developed risk prediction models for early-onset CRC that incorporate an environmental risk score (ERS), including 16 lifestyle and environmental factors, and a polygenic risk score (PRS) of 141 variants. METHODS: Relying on risk score weights for ERS and PRS derived from studies of CRC at all ages, we evaluated risks for early-onset CRC in 3486 cases and 3890 controls aged younger than 50 years. Relative and absolute risks for early-onset CRC were assessed according to values of the ERS and PRS. The discriminatory performance of these scores was estimated using the covariate-adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: Increasing values of ERS and PRS were associated with increasing relative risks for early-onset CRC (odds ratio per SD of ERS = 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.08 to 1.20; odds ratio per SD of PRS = 1.59, 95% CI = 1.51 to 1.68), both contributing to case-control discrimination (area under the curve = 0.631, 95% CI = 0.615 to 0.647). Based on absolute risks, we can expect 26 excess cases per 10 000 men and 21 per 10 000 women among those scoring at the 90th percentile for both risk scores. CONCLUSIONS: Personal risk scores have the potential to identify individuals at differential relative and absolute risk for early-onset CRC. Improved discrimination may aid in targeted CRC screening of younger, high-risk individuals, potentially improving outcomes.

Prediagnostic consumption of vitamin D, calcium and dairy products and colorectal cancer survival: results from the Newfoundland Colorectal Cancer Registry Cohort Study.

Vitamin D, Ca and dairy products are negatively associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence, but little is known of their influence on CRC survival. To investigate prediagnostic intakes of vitamin D, Ca and dairy products for their relevance to CRC prognosis, we analysed 504 CRC patients enrolled in the Newfoundland Colorectal Cancer Registry Cohort Study who were diagnosed for the first time with CRC between 1999 and 2003. Follow-up for mortality and cancer recurrence was through April 2010. Data on diet and lifestyle factors were gathered via a validated, semi-quantitative FFQ and a Personal History Questionnaire. Multivariate Cox models estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % CI for the relationship of prediagnostic intakes of vitamin D, Ca and dairy products with all-cause mortality (overall survival, OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) among CRC patients. We found that prediagnostic Ca intake from foods, but not total Ca intake, was negatively associated with all-cause mortality (HR for Q2 v. Q1, 0·44; 95 % CI, 0·26, 0·75). An inverse relationship was also seen in a dose-response fashion for prediagnostic cheese intake (HR for Q4 v. Q1, 0·57, 95 % CI, 0·34, 0·95, Ptrend = 0·029). No evidence for modification by sex, physical activity, alcohol drinking and cigarette smoking was observed. In summary, high prediagnostic intakes of cheese and Ca from foods may be associated with increased survival among CRC patients. By manipulating diet, this study may contribute to the development of novel therapies that add to the armamentarium against CRC. Replication studies are required before any nutritional interventions are made available.

A comprehensive analysis of SNPs and CNVs identifies novel markers associated with disease outcomes in colorectal cancer.

We aimed to examine the associations of a genome-wide set of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and 254 copy number variations (CNVs) and/or insertion/deletions (INDELs) with clinical outcomes in colorectal cancer patients (n = 505). We also aimed to investigate whether their associations changed (e.g., appeared, diminished) over time. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards and piece-wise Cox regression models were used to examine the associations. The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) datasets were used for replication purposes and to examine the gene expression differences between tumor and nontumor tissue samples. A common SNP (WBP11-rs7314075) was associated with disease-specific survival with P-value of 3.2 × 10-8 . Association of this region with disease-specific survival was also detected in the TCGA patient cohort. Two expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) were identified in this locus that were implicated in the regulation of ERP27 expression. Interestingly, expression levels of ERP27 and WBP11 were significantly different between colorectal tumors and nontumor tissues. Three SNPs predicted the risk of recurrent disease only after 5 years postdiagnosis. Overall, our study identified novel variants, one of which also showed an association in the TCGA dataset, but no CNVs/INDELs, that associated with outcomes in colorectal cancer. Three SNPs were candidate predictors of long-term recurrence/metastasis risk.

Variation and appropriateness of antipsychotic use in long-term care facilities across Newfoundland and Labrador.

OBJECTIVE: The use of antipsychotics to treat seniors in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) has raised concern because of health consequences (i.e., increased risk of falls, stroke, death) in this vulnerable population. This study measured geographic patterns of antipsychotic utilization among seniors living in LTCFs in Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) and assessed potential inappropriateness. METHOD: We analyzed prescription records among adults 66 years and older with provincial prescription drug coverage admitted to LTCFs in NL between April 1, 2011, and March 31, 2014. Patterns of use were analyzed across the 4 regional health authorities (RHAs) in NL and LTCFs. Logistic, Poisson and linear regression models were used to test variations in prevalence, rate and volume of antipsychotic utilization. To assess potential inappropriateness of antipsychotic use, we analyzed data from Resident Assessment Instrument-Minimum Data Set (RAI-MDS) 2.0 forms from NL LTCFs between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2018. Pearson chi-squared analysis was performed at the RHA and LTCF levels to determine changes in percentage of total prescriptions or antipsychotic prescriptions without psychosis. RESULTS: Between 2011 and 2014, 2843 seniors were admitted to LTCFs across NL; of these, 1323 residents were prescribed 1 or more antipsychotics. Within the 3-year period, the percentage of antipsychotic use across facilities ranged from 35% to 78%. Using data from 27,260 RAI-MDS 2.0 assessments between 2016 and 2018, 71% (6995/9851) of antipsychotic prescriptions were potentially inappropriate. DISCUSSION: There is substantial variation across NL regions concerning the utilization of antipsychotics for senior in LTCFs. Facility size and management styles may be reasons for this. CONCLUSION: With nearly three-quarters of antipsychotic prescriptions shown to be potentially inappropriate, systematic interventions to assess indications for antipsychotic use are warranted. Can Pharm J (Ott) 2021;154:xx-xx.

Nongenetic Determinants of Risk for Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer.

Background: Incidence of early-onset (younger than 50 years of age) colorectal cancer (CRC) is increasing in many countries. Thus, elucidating the role of traditional CRC risk factors in early-onset CRC is a high priority. We sought to determine whether risk factors associated with late-onset CRC were also linked to early-onset CRC and whether association patterns differed by anatomic subsite. Methods: Using data pooled from 13 population-based studies, we studied 3767 CRC cases and 4049 controls aged younger than 50 years and 23 437 CRC cases and 35 311 controls aged 50 years and older. Using multivariable and multinomial logistic regression, we estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to assess the association between risk factors and early-onset CRC and by anatomic subsite. Results: Early-onset CRC was associated with not regularly using nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (OR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.21 to 1.68), greater red meat intake (OR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.16), lower educational attainment (OR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.16), alcohol abstinence (OR = 1.23, 95% CI = 1.08 to 1.39), and heavier alcohol use (OR = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.50). No factors exhibited a greater excess in early-onset compared with late-onset CRC. Evaluating risks by anatomic subsite, we found that lower total fiber intake was linked more strongly to rectal (OR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.14 to 1.48) than colon cancer (OR = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.02 to 1.27; P = .04). Conclusion: In this large study, we identified several nongenetic risk factors associated with early-onset CRC, providing a basis for targeted identification of those most at risk, which is imperative in mitigating the rising burden of this disease.

On Framing the Research Question and Choosing the Appropriate Research Design.

Clinical epidemiology is the science of human disease investigation with a focus on diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment. The generation of a reasonable question requires definition of patients, interventions, controls, and outcomes. The goal of research design is to minimize error, ensure adequate samples, measure input and output variables appropriately, consider external and internal validities, limit bias, and address clinical as well as statistical relevance. The hierarchy of evidence for clinical decision-making places randomized controlled trials (RCT) or systematic review of good-quality RCTs at the top of the evidence pyramid. Prognostic and etiologic questions are best addressed with longitudinal cohort studies.