Lifetime costs of alcohol consumption in Thailand: protocol for an incidence-based cost-of-illness study using Markov model.

INTRODUCTION: Several prevalence-based cost-of-illness (COI) studies have been conducted to estimate the economic burden of alcohol consumption borne by a particular society in a given year. Yet there are few studies examining the economic costs incurred by an individual drinker over his/her lifetime. Thus, this study aims to estimate the costs incurred by an individual drinker's alcohol consumption over his or her lifetime in Thailand. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: An incidence-based COI approach will be employed. To project individuals' associated costs over a lifetime, a Markov modelling technique will be used. The following six alcohol-related diseases/conditions will be considered in the model: hypertension, haemorrhagic stroke, liver cirrhosis, liver cancer, alcohol use disorders and road injury. The analysis will cover both direct (ie, direct healthcare cost, costs of property damage due to road traffic accidents) and indirect costs (ie, productivity loss due to premature mortality and hospital-related absenteeism). The human capital approach will be adopted to estimate the cost of productivity loss. All costs will be presented in Thai baht, 2022. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The Institutional Review Board of Mahidol University, Faculty of Dentistry/Faculty of Pharmacy has confirmed that no ethical approval is required (COE.No.MU-DT/PY-IRB 2021/010.0605). Dissemination of the study findings will be carried out through peer-reviewed publications, conferences and engagement with policy-makers and public health stakeholders.

Which approach of total hip arthroplasty is the best efficacy and least complication?

BACKGROUND: Total hip arthroplasty is as an effective intervention to relieve pain and improve hip function. Approaches of the hip have been exhaustively explored about pros and cons. The efficacy and the complications of hip approaches remains inconclusive. This study conducted an umbrella review to systematically appraise previous meta-analysis (MAs) including conventional posterior approach (PA), and minimally invasive surgeries as the lateral approach (LA), direct anterior approach (DAA), 2-incisions method, mini-lateral approach and the newest technique direct superior approach (DSA) or supercapsular percutaneously-assisted total hip (SuperPath). AIM: To compare the efficacy and complications of hip approaches that have been published in all MAs and randomized controlled trials (RCTs). METHODS: MAs were identified from MEDLINE and Scopus from inception until 2023. RCTs were then updated from the latest MA to September 2023. This study included studies which compared hip approaches and reported at least one outcome such as Harris Hip Score (HHS), dislocation, intra-operative fracture, wound complication, nerve injury, operative time, operative blood loss, length of hospital stay, incision length and VAS pain. Data were independently selected, extracted and assessed by two reviewers. Network MA and cluster rank and surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) were estimated for treatment efficacy and safety. RESULTS: Finally, twenty-eight MAs (40 RCTs), and 13 RCTs were retrieved. In total 47 RCTs were included for reanalysis. The results of corrected covered area showed high degree (13.80%). Among 47 RCTs, most of the studies were low risk of bias in part of random process and outcome reporting, while other domains were medium to high risk of bias. DAA significantly provided higher HHS at three months than PA [pooled unstandardized mean difference (USMD): 3.49, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.98, 6.00 with SUCRA: 85.9], followed by DSA/SuperPath (USMD: 1.57, 95%CI: -1.55, 4.69 with SUCRA: 57.6). All approaches had indifferent dislocation and intraoperative fracture rates. SUCRA comparing early functional outcome and composite complications (dislocation, intra-operative fracture, wound complication, and nerve injury) found DAA was the best approach followed by DSA/SuperPath. CONCLUSION: DSA/SuperPath had better earlier functional outcome than PA, but still could not overcome the result of DAA. This technique might be the other preferred option with acceptable complications.

Economic costs of alcohol consumption in Thailand, 2021.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol is one of the leading risk factors contributing to avoidable economic loss worldwide. Estimates from the economic cost of alcohol consumption studies play an important role in prioritizing healthcare resource use, supporting policy decisions, and justifying budgets for alcohol policy. This study aimed to estimate the economic burden associated with alcohol consumption in Thailand in 2021. METHODS: Prevalence-based cost of illness methodology was employed. The following costs were included in the analysis: healthcare costs; cost of law enforcement; cost of property damage due to road traffic accidents; cost of premature mortality; and cost of absenteeism from out-patient hospital visits and hospitalization. Human capital approach was adopted. All costs were presented in Thai baht, 2021. RESULTS: Alcohol consumption incurred a total estimated economic cost of 165,450.5 million baht, equivalent to 1.02% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 2500 baht per capita. Cost of premature mortality was estimated at 157,918.7 million baht and accounted for the largest proportion of the total cost (95.45%). Healthcare cost was found to be the second highest share representing 4370.1 million baht (2.7% of the total cost). The number of premature death attributable to alcohol consumption in 2021 was estimated at 22,804. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol continues to impose a substantial economic burden in Thailand. Enforcement of existing well-formulated alcohol control policies is urgently required to mitigate the economic impact of alcohol consumption in the country.

Factors associated with health-related quality of life in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention: Thai PCI registry.

Background: Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has been shown to improve health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). The objectives of this study were to assess the changes in HRQoL and factors influencing these changes in CAD patients after undergoing PCI. Methods: Data from a nationwide PCI registry across 39 hospitals in Thailand were collected in 2018-2019, including baseline characteristics, comorbid diseases, angiographic CAD severity, procedural details, and type of health insurance. HRQoL, as measured by utility scores, was determined in all patients using the Thai version of EQ-5D-5l at admission, discharge, and 6 and 12 months after discharge. The effects of time after PCI procedure and various factors on mean utility scores were assessed using a mixed-effect linear regression model. Results: A total of 19,701 patients were included in the analysis; they had a mean age of 64.2 ± 11.7 years and were predominantly (69.1%) male. Following PCI, the mean utility scores increased from 66.6 ± 19.6 at admission to 81.9 ± 13.8 at discharge, and remained stable at 6 and 12 months (86.1 ± 12.3 and 88.0 ± 11.7, respectively). After adjusting for potential confounding variables, several factors were found to be independently associated with improved HRQoL, including angiographic success, male gender, overweight status, dyslipidemia, and radial access. Six other factors were associated with less improved HRQoLs, including cardiogenic shock/IABP support, old age, CKD, clinical presentation (STEMI and NSTEMI), prior cerebrovascular disease, and heart failure. There were no associations of CAD severity and procedural details with HRQoL. No differences were found related to type of health insurance, except that patients who were uninsured or self-pay tended to have less improvement in HRQoL. Conclusion: HRQoL improved significantly after PCI in these subjects, as observed through 1 year of follow-up. Identifying the factors influencing these improvements may assist clinicians in tailoring patient interventions to optimise quality of life after PCI.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of isolation strategies for asymptomatic and mild symptom COVID-19 patients.

BACKGROUND: Management of COVID-19 patients with mild and moderate symptoms could be isolated at home isolation (HI), community isolation (CI) or hospitel. However, it was still unclear which strategy was more cost-effective. Therefore, this study was conducted to evaluate this. METHODS: This study used data from patients who initially stayed at HI, CI, and hospitel under supervision of Ramathibodi Hospital between April and October 2021. Outcomes of interest were hospitalisation and mortality. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) was calculated based on hospital perspective using home isolation as the reference. RESULTS: From 7,077 patients, 4,349 2,356, and 372 were admitted at hospitel, HI, and CI, respectively. Most patients were females (57.04%) and the mean age was 40.42 (SD = 16.15). Average durations of stay were 4.47, 3.35, and 3.91 days for HI, CI, and hospitel, respectively. The average cost per day for staying in these corresponding places were 24.22, 63.69, and 65.23 US$. For hospitalisation, the ICER for hospitel was at 41.93 US$ to avoid one hospitalisation in 1,000 patients when compared to HI, while CI had more cost, but less cases avoided. The ICER for hospitel and CI were at 46.21 and 866.17 US$ to avoid one death in 1,000 patients. CONCLUSIONS: HI may be cost-effective isolated strategy for preventing hospitalisation and death in developing countries with limited resources.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of liver transplantation in biliary atresia according to the severity of end-stage liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Timing for liver transplantation (LT) in biliary atresia (BA) children with end-stage liver disease (ESLD) is associated with all-cause mortality. The cut-off value of pediatric end-stage liver disease (PELD) score for LT consideration varies across institutions. We aimed to determine the cost-effectiveness of LT to prevent death among BA children registered on the waiting list with different severities of ESLD. METHODS: Subjects were BA children aged < 12 years at a transplant center between 2010 and 2021. A decision tree was developed for cost-effectiveness analysis from a hospital perspective to compare all-cause death between patients initially registered with a low PELD score (< 15) and a high PELD score (≥ 15). Each patient's direct medical cost was retrieved from the beginning of registration until 5 years after LT, adjusted with an inflation rate to 2022 Thai Baht (THB). RESULTS: Among 176 children, 138 (78.4%) were initially registered with the high PELD score. The cost and mortality rate of the low PELD score group (THB1,413,424 or USD41,904 per patient and 31.6% mortality) were less than the high PELD score group (THB1,781,180 or USD52,807 per patient and 47.9% mortality), demonstrating the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of THB2,259,717 or USD66,994 per death prevented. The cost of early post-operative admission had the highest effect on the ICER. Considering the break-even analysis, cost among children initially registered at the low PELD score was also less expensive over time. CONCLUSIONS: Registration for LT at PELD score < 15 was more cost-effective to prevent death among BA children with ESLD.

Cost-Effectiveness and Cost-Utility Analyses in Thailand of Continuous Intrathecal Morphine Infusion Compared with Conventional Therapy in Cancer Pain: A 10-year Multicenter Retrospective Study.

Background: Because of the high initial cost of intrathecal drug delivery (ITDD) therapy, this study investigated the cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of ITDD therapy in refractory cancer pain management in Thailand over the past 10 years. Methods: The retrospective study was conducted in patients with cancer pain who underwent ITDD therapy from January 2011 to 2021 at three university hospitals. Clinical outcomes included the numerical rating scale (NRS), Palliative Performance Scale, and the EQ-5D. The direct medical and nonmedical as well as indirect costs were also recorded. Cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses were performed comparing ITDD therapy with conventional therapy (extrapolated from costs of the same patient before ITDD therapy) from a societally oriented economic evaluation. Results: Twenty patients (F:M: 10:10) aged 60 ± 15 years who underwent implantation of an intrathecal percutaneous port (IT port; n = 15) or programmable intrathecal pump (IT pump; n = 5) were included. The median survival time was 78 (interquartile range = 121-54) days after ITDD therapy. At 2-month follow-up, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER)/pain reduction of an IT port (US$2065.36 (CA$2829.54)/2-point NRS reduction/lifetime) was lower than for patients with an IT pump (US$5479.26 (CA$7506.58)/2-point NRS reduction/lifetime) compared with continued conventional therapy. The ICER/quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained for an IT port compared with conventional treatment was US$93,999.31(CA$128,799.06)/QALY gained, which is above the cost-effectiveness threshold for Thailand. Conclusion: The cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of IT port therapy for cancer pain was high relative to the cost of living in Thailand, above the cost-effectiveness threshold. Prospective cost analysis studies enrolling more patients with diverse cancers that investigate the benefit of early ITDD therapy with devices over a range of prices are warranted.

Contexte: En raison du coût initial élevé du traitement par administration intrathécale de médicaments (AIM), cette étude a étudié le rapport coût-efficacité et le rapport coût-utilité du traitement par AIM dans la prise en charge de la douleur cancéreuse réfractaire en Thaïlande au cours des 10 dernières années.Méthodes: L'étude rétrospective a été menée auprès de patients souffrant de douleur cancéreuse ayant subi un traitement par AIM de janvier 2011 et 2021 dans trois hôpitaux universitaires. Les résultats cliniques comprenaient l'échelle d'évaluation numérique (EEN), l'échelle de performance palliative et l'EQ-5D. Les coûts médicaux et non médicaux directs et indirects ont également été consignés. Les analyses coûts-efficacité et coût-utilité ont été effectuées en comparant le traitement par AIM au traitement conventionnel (extrapolé à partir des coûts pour le même patient avant le traitement par AIM) à partir d'une évaluation économique sociétale.Résultats: Vingt patients (F : M : 10 : 10) âgés de 60 ± 15 ans ayant subi l'implantation d'un port percutané intrathécal (port IT; n = 15) ou d'une pompe intrathécale programmable (pompe IT; n = 5) ont été inclus. Le temps de survie médian était de 78 jours (intervalle interquartile = 121­54) après le traitement par AIM. À deux mois de suivi, le ratio coût-efficacité incrémental (RCEI/réduction de la douleur d'un port IT (2 065,36 $ US (2 829,54 $ CA) /réduction de 2 points sur l'EEN/durée de vie) était inférieur à celui des patients avec une pompe IT (5479,26 $ US (7506,58 $ CA) /réduction de 2 points sur l'EEN/durée de vie) comparativement au traitement conventionnel en continu. Le RCEI/année de vie pondérée par la qualité (AVPQ) gagnée pour un port IT comparativement au traitement conventionnel était de 93 999,31 $ US (128 799,06 $ CA) /AVPQ gagné, ce qui est au-dessus du seuil de rentabilité pour la Thaïlande.Conclusion: Le rapport coût-efficacité et le rapport coût-utilité du traitement par port IT pour la douleur cancéreuse étaient élevés par rapport au coût de la vie en Thaïlande, soit au-dessus du seuil de rentabilité. Les études d'analyse de coût prospectives portant sur un plus grand nombre de patients atteints de divers cancers qui étudient les avantages des traitements par AIM précoces à l'aide d'appareils de prix différents sont justifiées.

Economic and Clinical Outcomes of Pediatric Patients Under Two With Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection in Thailand: A Real-world Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a common cause of acute respiratory tract infection in children, including in Thailand. We conducted this study to evaluate the economic and clinical outcomes of patients <2 years old with RSV infection at a tertiary teaching hospital in Thailand. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study during 2014-2021. To be eligible, patients had to report at least 1 positive RSV test and were <2 years old. Descriptive statistics were used to describe baseline characteristics, healthcare resource utilization, direct medical costs (1 US dollars [USD] = 31.98 Thai Baht) and clinical outcomes. RESULTS: Among 1370 RSV-positive patients, 49.9% of the patients (n = 683) were hospitalized at or within 3 days of RSV diagnosis with a median length of stay of 6 days (interquartile range [IQR]: 4-9 days), 38.8% were diagnosed with RSV-related respiratory complications (n = 532) and 1.5% died during the hospitalization episode (n = 20). A total of 22.5% of hospitalized patients (n = 154) received critical care during the hospitalization episode. The median cost of each RSV episode was USD539 (IQR: USD167-USD2106) and was higher among hospitalized patients (median: USD2112; IQR: USD1379-USD3182) compared with nonhospitalized patients (median: USD167; IQR: USD112-USD276). CONCLUSIONS: RSV infection represents a potentially important contributor to healthcare resource use and medical costs among children <2 years old in Thailand. Coupled with epidemiologic data, findings from our study will be useful to illustrate the overall economic burden associated with RSV infection among children in Thailand.

Diagnostic stewardship to limit repeat plasma cytomegalovirus viral load testing.

BACKGROUND: Frequent serial monitoring of plasma cytomegalovirus (CMV) viral load caused unnecessary budgets for laboratory testing without changes in treatment. We aimed to implement diagnostic stewardship to limit CMV viral load testing at appropriate intervals. METHODS: A quasi-experimental study was performed. To avoid unnecessary plasma CMV viral load testing, the inpatient electronic pop-up reminder was launched in 2021. In cases with plasma CMV viral load testing was ordered in intervals of less than five days, telephone interview and feedback were performed. Pre-post intervention data was compared in terms of clinical and monetary outcomes. The rate of plasma CMV viral load testing performed in intervals of less than five days was compared between 2021 and 2019 using the Poisson regression model. RESULTS: After the protocol implementation, there was a significant decrease in the rate of plasma CMV viral load test orders in intervals of less than five days from 17.5% to 8.0% [incidence rate ratio 0.40, p < 0.001]. There was no statistically significant difference in the incidence of CMV DNAemia and CMV disease (p = 0.407 and 0.602, respectively). As a result, the hospital could save the costs of plasma CMV viral load testing per 1,000 patients performed with intervals of less than five days from 2,646,048.11 to 1,360,062.89 Thai Baht. CONCLUSIONS: The diagnostic stewardship program is safe and helpful in reducing unnecessary plasma CMV viral load testing and costs.

Evaluation of transitions from early hypertension to hypertensive chronic kidney disease, coronary artery disease, stroke and mortality: a Thai real-world data cohort.

Objective: Systemic arterial hypertension (HT) is a major modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVDs), associated with all-cause death (ACD). Understanding its progression from the early state to late complications should lead to more timely intensification of treatment. This study aimed to construct a real-world cohort profile of HT and to estimate transition probabilities from the uncomplicated state to any of these long-term complications; chronic kidney disease (CKD), coronary artery disease (CAD), stroke, and ACD. Methods: This real-world cohort study used routine clinical practice data for all adult patients diagnosed with HT in the Ramathibodi Hospital, Thailand from 2010 to 2022. A multi-state model was developed based on the following: state 1-uncomplicated HT, 2-CKD, 3-CAD, 4-stroke, and 5-ACD. Transition probabilities were estimated using Kaplan-Meier method. Results: A total of 144,149 patients were initially classified as having uncomplicated HT. The transition probabilities (95% CI) from the initial state to CKD, CAD, stroke, and ACD at 10-years were 19.6% (19.3%, 20.0%), 18.2% (17.9%, 18.6%), 7.4% (7.1%, 7.6%), and 1.7% (1.5%, 1.8%), respectively. Once in the intermediate-states of CKD, CAD, and stroke, 10-year transition probabilities to death were 7.5% (6.8%, 8.4%), 9.0% (8.2%, 9.9%), and 10.8% (9.3%, 12.5%). Conclusions: In this 13-year cohort, CKD was observed as the most common complication, followed by CAD and stroke. Among these, stroke carried the highest risk of ACD, followed by CAD and CKD. These findings provide improved understanding of disease progression to guide appropriate prevention measures. Further investigations of prognostic factors and treatment effectiveness are warranted.

Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Behavioral Economic Incentive Programs for Goal Achievement on Healthy Diet, Weight Control and Physical Activity: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Healthy diet, weight control and physical activity to reduce obesity can be motivated by financial incentives (FI). Behavioral-economic approaches may improve the incentivization effectiveness. This study compares and ranks the effectiveness of standard and behavioral incentivization for healthy diet, weight control, and physical activity promotion. PURPOSE: To investigate whether behavioral-economic insights improve incentivization effectiveness. METHODS: A systematic search of Medline and Scopus was performed from database inception to December 2020. Study characteristics, program designs, and risk ratio (RR) were extracted. A two-stage network meta-analysis pooled and ranked intervention effects. RESULTS: There were 35 eligible RCTs. For diet-weight control, standard FI, deposit contract (deposit), lottery-based incentive (lottery), and standard-FI + lottery increased goal achievement compared to no-FI but only deposit was statistically significant with pooled RRs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of 1.21 (0.94, 1.56), 1.79 (1.04, 3.05), 1.45 (0.99, 2.13), and 1.73 (0.83, 3.63). For physical activity, standard-FI, deposit, and lottery significantly increased goal achievement compared to no-FI, with pooled RRs of 1.38 (1.13, 1.68), 1.63 (1.24, 2.14) and 1.43 (1.14, 1.80), respectively. In a follow-up period for physical activity, only deposit significantly increased goal achievement compared to no-FI, with pooled RRs of 1.39 (1.11, 1.73). CONCLUSION: Deposit, followed by lottery, were best for motivating healthy diet, weight control and physical activity at program end. Post-intervention, deposit then standard-FI were best for motivating physical activity. Behavioral insights can improve incentivization effectiveness, although lottery-based approaches may offer only short-term benefit regarding physical activity. However, the imprecise intervention effects were major concerns.

Healthy diet, weight control and physical activity to reduce obesity can be motivated by financial incentives (FI). Behavioral-economic approaches may improve the effectiveness of FI programs. This study aims to investigate whether behavioral-economic insights improve incentivization effectiveness for healthy diet, weight control, and physical activity promotion. We conducted a systematic review of published randomized controlled trials (RCTs), then pooled the interested results, compared and ranked the effectiveness of standard and behavioral incentivization programs by a two-stage network meta-analysis. There were 35 eligible RCTs. For diet-weight control, standard FI, deposit contract (deposit), lottery-based incentive (lottery), and standard-FI + lottery increased goal achievement compared to no-FI but only deposit was statistically significant. For physical activity, standard-FI, deposit, and lottery significantly increased goal achievement compared to no-FI. In a follow-up period for physical activity, only deposit significantly increased goal achievement compared to no-FI. In conclusion, deposit, followed by lottery, were best for motivating healthy diet, weight control and physical activity at program end. Post-intervention, deposit then standard-FI were best for motivating physical activity. This shows that behavioral insights can improve incentivization effectiveness, although lottery-based approaches may offer only short-term benefit regarding physical activity.

Comparison of Various Pharmacologic Agents in the Management of Hemodynamically Significant Patent Ductus Arteriosus in Preterm: A Network Meta-Analysis and Risk-Benefit Analysis.

Introduction: Various pharmacological treatments are available for preterm infants with patent ductus arteriosus (PDA), but their risks and benefits are controversial. This study aimed to identify the best treatment for PDA using network meta-analysis (NMA) and risk-benefit assessment (RBA). Methods: Relevant randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were identified from MEDLINE, Scopus, and the Cochrane Library. RCTs were eligible if they were studied for preterm or low birth weight infants with presymptomatic PDA and hemodynamically significant PDA (hsPDA). The outcomes were PDA closure for a benefit and the composite risk outcome of adverse effects (AEs) for risk. An NMA was used to estimate the treatment effects of benefit and risk. The RBA helped to incorporate the risk and benefits of multiple treatments. Then, an incremental risk-benefit ratio was calculated by dividing the incremental risk by benefit using data from NMA, and they were jointly simulated using Monte Carlo methods. Finally, net clinical benefit (NCB) probability curves were constructed at varying acceptability thresholds. Results: Seventy RCTs with hsPDA were eligible considering 13 different interventions, but data on presymptomatic PDA were not enough for pooling. The clustered ranking plot from NMA indicated that 3 interventions (i.e., high-dose oral ibuprofen, standard-dose oral acetaminophen, and standard-dose oral ibuprofen) yielded high PDA closure and low AE. These three treatments and additional commonly used indomethacin were considered in the RBA. Given an acceptable threshold of 25% or having one AE out of four PDA closures, high-dose oral ibuprofen had a 36% chance of having the highest NCB, followed by standard-dose oral acetaminophen (27%), and oral ibuprofen (23.7%). Subgroup analysis indicated that the chances of having the highest NCB of GA ≥28 weeks were similar to that of all available studies. The best for GA <28 weeks, no data for high-dose oral ibuprofen, was standard-dose oral acetaminophen, followed by standard-dose oral ibuprofen. Conclusions: Trade-off RBA indicated that high-dose oral ibuprofen might be the best treatment for preterm, GA ≥28 weeks, with hsPDA followed by the standard-dose oral acetaminophen and ibuprofen. Preferably, optimal high doses, postnatal age to start treatment, and long-term outcomes are needed to study in the future.

Economic evaluation of peritoneal dialysis and hemodialysis in Thai population with End-stage Kidney Disease.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to conduct a cost-utility analysis of the "Peritoneal Dialysis (PD)-First" policy in 2008 under a universal health coverage scheme and hemodialysis (HD) in Thai patients with End-stage Kidney Disease (ESKD) using updated real-practice data. METHODS: Markov model was used to evaluate the cost-utility of two modalities, stratified into five age groups based on the first modality taken at 20, 30, 40, 50, and 60 years old from government and societal perspectives. Input parameters related to clinical aspects and cost were obtained from 15 hospitals throughout Thailand and Thai Renal Replacement Therapy databases. Both costs and outcomes were discounted at 3%, adjusted to 2021, and converted to USD (1 USD = 33.57 Thai Baht). One-way analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed to assess the uncertainty surrounding model parameters. RESULTS: From the government perspective, compared to PD-first policy, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was between 19,434 and 23,796 USD per QALY. Conversely, from a societal perspective, the ICER was between 31,913 and 39,912 USD per QALY. Both are higher than the willingness to pay threshold of 4,766 USD per QALY. CONCLUSION: By applying the updated real-practice data, PD-first policy still remains more cost-effective than HD-first policy at the current willingness to pay. However, HD gained more quality-adjusted life years than PD. This information will assist clinicians and policymakers in determining the future direction of dialysis modality selection and kidney replacement therapy reimbursement policies for ESKD patients.

Effectiveness and Safety of Direct Oral Anticoagulants in Thai Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: A Real-World Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) are commonly used to prevent stroke and systemic embolism in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). However, studies into their effectiveness and safety in the Thai population have so far been limited. OBJECTIVES: To study the effectiveness and safety of warfarin and DOACs among Thai AF patients. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted on AF patients at Ramathibodi Hospital from 2013 to 2018. All patients were followed for at least 1 year. Relevant clinical information was collected and compared between AF patient groups receiving warfarin, dabigatran, rivaroxaban, and apixaban. The primary outcome was a composite of major bleeding, ischemic stroke, and systemic thromboembolism. The secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality and disease-specific mortality caused by major bleeding, ischemic stroke, and systemic thromboembolism. RESULTS: A total of 1680 AF patients were enrolled in the study (warfarin 1193, apixaban 140, dabigatran 193, rivaroxaban 114). The estimated incidence of composite outcome was 16% [95% CI, 14-18%] and 12.4% [95% CI, 9.4-15.3%] in the warfarin and DOAC group, respectively, given a number needed to treat of 28 [95% CI, 3-52]. Compared with warfarin, DOACs were associated with both lower rate of all-cause mortality (4.9% [22/447] vs 8% [98/1193]) and lower disease-specific mortality (0.4% [2/447] and 1% [12/1193]). CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests DOACs were associated with a lower risk of major bleeding, ischemic stroke, and systemic thromboembolism compared to warfarin in Thai patients with AF. Patients receiving DOAC also had a lower rate of all-cause mortality and disease-specific mortality.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of mesh fixation techniques for laparoscopic and open inguinal hernia surgeries.

PURPOSE: This study reports economic evaluation of mesh fixation in open and laparoscopic hernia repair from a prospective real-world cohort study, using cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and cost-utility analysis (CUA). METHODS: A prospective real-world cohort study was conducted in two university-based hospitals in Thailand from November 2018 to 2019. Patient data on hernia features, operative approaches, clinical outcomes, associated cost data, and quality of life were collected. Models were used to determine each group's treatment effect, potential outcome means, and average treatment effects. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was used to evaluate the incremental risk of hernia recurrences. RESULTS: The 261 patients in this study were divided into six groups: laparoscopic with tack (LT, n = 47), glue (LG, n = 26), and self-gripping mesh (LSG, n = 30), and open with suture (OS, n = 117), glue (OG, n = 18), and self-gripping mesh (OSG, n = 23). Hernia recurrence was most common in LSG. The mean utility score was highest in OG and OSG (both 0.99). Treatment costs were generally higher for laparoscopic than open procedures. The cost-effectiveness plane for utility and hernia recurrence identified LSG as least cost effective. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves identified OG as having the highest probability of being cost effective at willingness to pay levels between $0 and $3,300, followed by OSG. CONCLUSION: Given the similarity of hernia recurrence among all major procedures, the cost of surgery may impact the decision. According to our findings, open hernia repair with adhesive or self-gripping mesh appears most cost-effective.

Detection of statin-induced rhabdomyolysis and muscular related adverse events through data mining technique.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Rhabdomyolysis (RM) is a life-threatening adverse drug reaction in which statins are the one commonly related to RM. The study aimed to explore the association between statin used and RM or other muscular related adverse events. In addition, drug interaction with statins were also assessed. METHODS: All extracted prescriptions were grouped as lipophilic and hydrophilic statins. RM outcome was identified by electronically screening and later ascertaining by chart review. The study proposed 4 models, i.e., logistic regression (LR), Bayesian network (BN), random forests (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). Features were selected using multiple processes, i.e., bootstrapping, expert opinions, and univariate analysis. RESULTS: A total of 939 patients who used statins were identified consisting 15, 9, and 19 per 10,000 persons for overall outcome prevalence, using statin alone, and co-administrations, respectively. Common statins were simvastatin, atorvastatin, and rosuvastatin. The proposed models had high sensitivity, i.e., 0.85, 0.90, 0.95 and 0.95 for LR, BN, RF, and XGBoost, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic was significantly higher in LR than BN, i.e., 0.80 (0.79, 0.81) and 0.73 (0.72, 0.74), but a little lower than the RF [0.817 (95% CI 0.811, 0.824)] and XGBoost [0.819 (95% CI 0.812, 0.825)]. The LR model indicated that a combination of high-dose lipophilic statin, clarithromycin, and antifungals was 16.22 (1.78, 148.23) times higher odds of RM than taking high-dose lipophilic statin alone. CONCLUSIONS: The study suggested that statin uses may have drug interactions with others including clarithromycin and antifungal drugs in inducing RM. A prospective evaluation of the model should be further assessed with well planned data monitoring. Applying LR in hospital system might be useful in warning drug interaction during prescribing.

Mesh-fixation technique for inguinal hernia repair: umbrella review.

BACKGROUND: Mesh-based repair is the standard of surgical care for symptomatic inguinal hernias. Many systematic reviews and meta-analyses (SRMAs) addressed various aspects of these procedures. This umbrella review aimed to report the evidence from all previous SRMAs for open and laparoscopic inguinal hernia repair. METHODS: SRMAs were identified from MEDLINE, Scopus, Cochrane, Embase, DARE, PROSPERO, CINAHL, JBISRIS, EPPI-Centre, Wiley Online Library and ScienceDirect database according to PRISMA guidelines. Data including mesh-fixation techniques and surgical approach were extracted from selected SRMAs. The corrected covered area was calculated to address study overlap across reviews, and an excess significance test was used to assess potential bias. The outcomes of interest were hernia recurrence, chronic groin pain, operating time, postoperative pain, duration of hospital stay, return to daily life activities, and postoperative complication. RESULTS: Thirty SRMAs were included between 2010 and 2019: 16 focused on open repair, and 14 focused on laparoscopic repair, with a high degree of overlap (open repairs, 41 per cent; laparoscopic repairs, 30-57 per cent). Sufficient evidence was available on hernia recurrence, chronic groin pain, and operative time. Effects of glue on hernia recurrence were inconclusive in open and laparoscopy approaches, P = 0.816 and 0.946 respectively. Glue was significantly associated with lower persistent groin pain, in open repair (versus suture) and in laparoscopic repair (versus tack). SRMAs suggested that self-gripping mesh was associated with shorter operating time in open surgery, although with only a few minutes of improvement (0.36-7.85 min, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: In this umbrella review, chronic groin pain and operating time were the only outcomes for which there was sufficient evidence supporting the effectiveness respectively of glue and self-gripping mesh.

External validation of prognostic models for chronic kidney disease among type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Various prognostic models have been derived to predict chronic kidney disease (CKD) development in type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, their generalisability and predictive performance in different populations remain largely unvalidated. This study aimed to externally validate several prognostic models of CKD in a T2D Thai cohort. METHODS: A nationwide survey was linked with hospital databases to create a prospective cohort of patients with diabetes (n = 3416). We undertook a systematic review to identify prognostic models and traditional metrics (i.e., discrimination and calibration) to compare model performance for CKD prediction. We updated prognostic models by including additional clinical parameters to optimise model performance in the Thai setting. RESULTS: Six relevant previously published models were identified. At baseline, C-statistics ranged from 0.585 (0.565-0.605) to 0.786 (0.765-0.806) for CKD and 0.657 (0.610-0.703) to 0.760 (0.705-0.816) for end-stage renal disease (ESRD). All original CKD models showed fair calibration with Observed/Expected (O/E) ratios ranging from 0.999 (0.975-1.024) to 1.009 (0.929-1.090). Hosmer-Lemeshow tests indicated a good fit for all models. The addition of routine clinical factors (i.e., glucose level and oral diabetes medications) enhanced model prediction by improved C-statistics of Low's of 0.114 for CKD and Elley's of 0.025 for ESRD. CONCLUSIONS: All models showed moderate discrimination and fair calibration. Updating models to include routine clinical factors substantially enhanced their accuracy. Low's (developed in Singapore) and Elley's model (developed in New Zealand), outperformed the other models evaluated. These models can assist clinicians to improve the risk-stratification of diabetic patients for CKD and/or ESRD in the regions settings are similar to Thailand.

Prognostic models of diabetic microvascular complications: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Many prognostic models of diabetic microvascular complications have been developed, but their performances still varies. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarise the performances of the existing models. METHODS: Prognostic models of diabetic microvascular complications were retrieved from PubMed and Scopus up to 31 December 2020. Studies were selected, if they developed or internally/externally validated models of any microvascular complication in type 2 diabetes (T2D). RESULTS: In total, 71 studies were eligible, of which 32, 30 and 18 studies initially developed prognostic model for diabetic retinopathy (DR), chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end stage renal disease (ESRD) with the number of derived equations of 84, 96 and 51, respectively. Most models were derived-phases, some were internal and external validations. Common predictors were age, sex, HbA1c, diabetic duration, SBP and BMI. Traditional statistical models (i.e. Cox and logit regression) were mostly applied, otherwise machine learning. In cohorts, the discriminative performance in derived-logit was pooled with C statistics of 0.82 (0.73­0.92) for DR and 0.78 (0.74­0.83) for CKD. Pooled Cox regression yielded 0.75 (0.74­0.77), 0.78 (0.74­0.82) and 0.87 (0.84­0.89) for DR, CKD and ESRD, respectively. External validation performances were sufficiently pooled with 0.81 (0.78­0.83), 0.75 (0.67­0.84) and 0.87 (0.85­0.88) for DR, CKD and ESRD, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Several prognostic models were developed, but less were externally validated. A few studies derived the models by using appropriate methods and were satisfactory reported. More external validations and impact analyses are required before applying these models in clinical practice. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42018105287.

Risk-benefit assessment of onlay and retrorectus mesh augmentation for incisional hernia prophylaxis: A secondary analysis from network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Mesh augmentation has proved efficacious for the prevention of incisional hernia (IH). A recent network meta-analysis (NMA) identified onlay and retrorectus mesh (OM and RM) as the most effective therapeutic options, but the risk of surgical site infection (SSI) and other complications require additional consideration. METHODS: The NMA generated pooled risk differences (RD) for the benefits of reducing IH and the risk of SSI and composite seroma/hematoma (CSH) for use in Monte-Carlo data simulations with 1000 replications. Mean incremental risk-benefit ratios (IRBR), i.e., the ratio of incremental risk (or RD) and incremental benefit, and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated with a probability of risk-benefits (PRB) across risk-benefit acceptability thresholds from the acceptability curves generated. RESULTS: The RDs of IH were 0.237 and 0.201 lower in OM and RM than primary suture closure, compared to 0.027 and -0.001 for SSI. IRBRs (95% CI) for SSI risk were -0.118 (-0.124, -0.112) and 0.006 (-0.002, 0.013) for OM and RM, respectively. PRBs were much higher in RM than OM, especially at low acceptability thresholds of 0.05 and 0.1. IRBRs (95% CI) for CSH were -0.388 (-0.395, -0.381) and -0.105 (-0.111, -0.100) for OM and RM, respectively. RM yielded a PRB of 0.87 at an acceptability threshold of 0.2, in contrast to OM, which did not. CONCLUSION: Overall, RM offered improved benefit in IH prophylaxis over the risk of complications relative to OM and appeared to be the preferred treatment option for this indication.