RESUMO
Fusarium head blight (FHB) of wheat, mainly caused by Fusarium graminearum Schwabe, is an emerging threat to wheat production in Korea under a changing climate. The disease occurrence and accumulation of associated trichothecene mycotoxins in wheat kernels strongly coincide with warm and wet environments during flowering. Recently, the International Panel for Climate Change released the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) climate change scenarios with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). In this study, we adopted GIBSIM, an existing mechanistic model developed in Brazil to estimate the risk infection index of wheat FHB, to simulate the potential FHB epidemics in Korea using the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios of CMIP6. The GIBSIM model simulates FHB infection risk from airborne inoculum density and infection frequency using temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity during the flowering period. First, wheat heading dates, during which GIBSIM runs, were predicted over suitable areas of winter wheat cultivation using a crop development rate model for wheat phenology and downscaled SSP scenarios. Second, an integrated model combining all results of wheat suitability, heading dates, and FHB infection risks from the SSP scenarios showed a gradual increase in FHB epidemics towards 2100, with different temporal and spatial patterns of varying magnitudes depending on the scenarios. These results indicate that proactive management strategies need to be seriously considered in the near future to minimize the potential impacts of the FHB epidemic under climate change in Korea. Therefore, available wheat cultivars with early or late heading dates were used in the model simulations as a realistic adaptation measure. As a result, wheat cultivars with early heading dates showed significant decreases in FHB epidemics in future periods, emphasizing the importance of effective adaptation measures against the projected increase in FHB epidemics in Korea under climate change.
RESUMO
Understanding the impact of Asian soybean rust on soybean yield is of great importance in the crop simulation model for this crop become it is possible to predict yield using different sowing dates and growth conditions. The goal of this study were to evaluate the performance of two soybean cultivars in Triângulo Mineiro/Alto Paranaíba, MG, Brazil and the effects of soybean rust on the yield of these cultivars using the CSM-CROPGRO Soybean model. Two soybean cultivars "NK 7074" (early) and "UFUS-Impacta" (medium late), which differ in their development cycles, were growing in Uberaba city during the 2009/2010 growing season. The validation for cultivar "UFUS-Impacta" was conducted comparing the measured and simulated yield data considering three different sowing dates in the "Uberlândia" city during the 2002/2003 growing season. Daily meteorological data obtained from six meteorological stations of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET). To determine the performance of the soybean cultivars and the effect of soybean rust on yield, three different scenarios were used: no occurrence of rust (NOR) and occurrence of rust with inoculum concentrations of U5.000 and U10.000 urediniospores/mL. For all environments studied, the early cultivar had the best performance than the medium late cultivar. Soybean rust had the most effect on yield for the U10.000 scenario than for the U5.000 scenario. The best soybean performance occurred for "Araxá" and "Uberaba" cities. The SouthSoutheast area of the "Triângulo Mineiro/Alto Paranaíba" region was the most sensitive to the effect of rust on yield compared to the North region.
Compreender o impacto da ferrugem asiática na produtividade da soja é de grande importância para os modelos de simulação dessa cultura, pois pode-se prever a produtividade utilizando-se diferentes datas de semeadura e condições de crescimento. O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar a performance de duas cultivares de soja na região do Triângulo Mineiro/Alto Paranaíba, MG, Brasil e os efeitos da ferrugem asiática da soja na produtividade desses cultivares utilizando o modelo CSM-CROPGRO Soybean. Duas cultivares de soja NK 7074 (precoce) e UFUS-Impacta (semitardia), as quais diferem nos seus ciclos de desenvolvimento, foram cultivadas em Uberaba na safra 2009/2010. A validação para a cultivar UFUS-Impacta foi conduzida comparando os dados observados e simulados de produtividade considerando três diferentes datas de semeadura na safra 2002/2003 em Uberlândia, MG. Foram utilizados dados meteorológicos diários de seis estações meteorológicas do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET). Para determinar o desempenho das cultivares de soja e o efeito da ferrugem na produtividade, utilizou-se três diferentes cenários denominados de: não ocorrência de ferrugem (NOR) e ocorrência de ferrugem nas concentrações de inóculo de U5.000 e U10.000 urediniósporos/mL. Para todos os ambientes estudados, a cultivar precoce teve o melhor desempenho em relação a cultivar semi-tardia. A ferrugem da soja teve maior impacto na produção para o cenário U10.000 do que para o cenário U5.000. O melhor desempenho das cultivares de soja foram para as cidades de Araxá e Uberaba. A área Sul-Sudeste do Triângulo Mineiro/Alto Paranaíba foi a mais sensível ao efeito da ferrugem na produtividade em comparação com a região norte.