Forecasting seizure likelihood from cycles of self-reported events and heart rate: a prospective pilot study.

BACKGROUND: Seizure risk forecasting could reduce injuries and even deaths in people with epilepsy. There is great interest in using non-invasive wearable devices to generate forecasts of seizure risk. Forecasts based on cycles of epileptic activity, seizure times or heart rate have provided promising forecasting results. This study validates a forecasting method using multimodal cycles recorded from wearable devices. METHOD: Seizure and heart rate cycles were extracted from 13 participants. The mean period of heart rate data from a smartwatch was 562 days, with a mean of 125 self-reported seizures from a smartphone app. The relationship between seizure onset time and phases of seizure and heart rate cycles was investigated. An additive regression model was used to project heart rate cycles. The results of forecasts using seizure cycles, heart rate cycles, and a combination of both were compared. Forecasting performance was evaluated in 6 of 13 participants in a prospective setting, using long-term data collected after algorithms were developed. FINDINGS: The results showed that the best forecasts achieved a mean area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.73 for 9/13 participants showing performance above chance during retrospective validation. Subject-specific forecasts evaluated with prospective data showed a mean AUC of 0.77 with 4/6 participants showing performance above chance. INTERPRETATION: The results of this study demonstrate that cycles detected from multimodal data can be combined within a single, scalable seizure risk forecasting algorithm to provide robust performance. The presented forecasting method enabled seizure risk to be estimated for an arbitrary future period and could be generalised across a range of data types. In contrast to earlier work, the current study evaluated forecasts prospectively, in subjects blinded to their seizure risk outputs, representing a critical step towards clinical applications. FUNDING: This study was funded by an Australian Government National Health & Medical Research Council and BioMedTech Horizons grant. The study also received support from the Epilepsy Foundation of America's 'My Seizure Gauge' grant.

Ambient air pollution and epileptic seizures: A panel study in Australia.

OBJECTIVE: Emerging evidence has shown that ambient air pollution affects brain health, but little is known about its effect on epileptic seizures. This work aimed to assess the association between daily exposure to ambient air pollution and the risk of epileptic seizures. METHODS: This study used epileptic seizure data from two independent data sources (NeuroVista and Seer App seizure diary). In the NeuroVista data set, 3273 seizures were recorded using intracranial electroencephalography (iEEG) from 15 participants with refractory focal epilepsy in Australia in 2010-2012. In the seizure diary data set, 3419 self-reported seizures were collected through a mobile application from 34 participants with epilepsy in Australia in 2018-2021. Daily average concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2 ), ozone (O3 ), particulate matter ≤10 µm in diameter (PM10 ), and sulfur dioxide (SO2 ) were retrieved from the Environment Protection Authority (EPA) based on participants' postcodes. A patient-time-stratified case-crossover design with the conditional Poisson regression model was used to determine the associations between air pollutants and epileptic seizures. RESULTS: A significant association between CO concentrations and epileptic seizure risks was observed, with an increased seizure risk of 4% (relative risk [RR]: 1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01-1.07) for an interquartile range (IQR) increase of CO concentrations (0.13 parts per million), whereas no significant associations were found for the other four air pollutants in the whole study population. Female participants had a significantly increased risk of seizures when exposed to elevated CO and NO2 , with RRs of 1.05 (95% CI: 1.01-1.08) and 1.09 (95% CI: 1.01-1.16), respectively. In addition, a significant association was observed between CO and the risk of subclinical seizures (RR: 1.20, 95% CI: 1.12-1.28). SIGNIFICANCE: Daily exposure to elevated CO concentrations may be associated with an increased risk of epileptic seizures, especially for subclinical seizures.

Forecasting Seizure Likelihood With Wearable Technology.

The unpredictability of epileptic seizures exposes people with epilepsy to potential physical harm, restricts day-to-day activities, and impacts mental well-being. Accurate seizure forecasters would reduce the uncertainty associated with seizures but need to be feasible and accessible in the long-term. Wearable devices are perfect candidates to develop non-invasive, accessible forecasts but are yet to be investigated in long-term studies. We hypothesized that machine learning models could utilize heart rate as a biomarker for well-established cycles of seizures and epileptic activity, in addition to other wearable signals, to forecast high and low risk seizure periods. This feasibility study tracked participants' (n = 11) heart rates, sleep, and step counts using wearable smartwatches and seizure occurrence using smartphone seizure diaries for at least 6 months (mean = 14.6 months, SD = 3.8 months). Eligible participants had a diagnosis of refractory epilepsy and reported at least 20 seizures (mean = 135, SD = 123) during the recording period. An ensembled machine learning and neural network model estimated seizure risk either daily or hourly, with retraining occurring on a weekly basis as additional data was collected. Performance was evaluated retrospectively against a rate-matched random forecast using the area under the receiver operating curve. A pseudo-prospective evaluation was also conducted on a held-out dataset. Of the 11 participants, seizures were predicted above chance in all (100%) participants using an hourly forecast and in ten (91%) participants using a daily forecast. The average time spent in high risk (prediction time) before a seizure occurred was 37 min in the hourly forecast and 3 days in the daily forecast. Cyclic features added the most predictive value to the forecasts, particularly circadian and multiday heart rate cycles. Wearable devices can be used to produce patient-specific seizure forecasts, particularly when biomarkers of seizure and epileptic activity cycles are utilized.

Seizure likelihood varies with day-to-day variations in sleep duration in patients with refractory focal epilepsy: A longitudinal electroencephalography investigation.

BACKGROUND: While the effects of prolonged sleep deprivation (≥24 h) on seizure occurrence has been thoroughly explored, little is known about the effects of day-to-day variations in the duration and quality of sleep on seizure probability. A better understanding of the interaction between sleep and seizures may help to improve seizure management. METHODS: To explore how sleep and epileptic seizures are associated, we analysed continuous intracranial electroencephalography (EEG) recordings collected from 10 patients with refractory focal epilepsy undergoing ordinary life activities between 2010 and 2012 from three clinical centres (Austin Health, The Royal Melbourne Hospital, and St Vincent's Hospital of the Melbourne University Epilepsy Group). A total of 4340 days of sleep-wake data were analysed (average 434 days per patient). EEG data were sleep scored using a semi-automated machine learning approach into wake, stages one, two, and three non-rapid eye movement sleep, and rapid eye movement sleep categories. FINDINGS: Seizure probability changes with day-to-day variations in sleep duration. Logistic regression models revealed that an increase in sleep duration, by 1·66 ± 0·52 h, lowered the odds of seizure by 27% in the following 48 h. Following a seizure, patients slept for longer durations and if a seizure occurred during sleep, then sleep quality was also reduced with increased time spent aroused from sleep and reduced rapid eye movement sleep. INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest that day-to-day deviations from regular sleep duration correlates with changes in seizure probability. Sleeping longer, by 1·66 ± 0·52 h, may offer protective effects for patients with refractory focal epilepsy, reducing seizure risk. Furthermore, the occurrence of a seizure may disrupt sleep patterns by elongating sleep and, if the seizure occurs during sleep, reducing its quality.

Identifying seizure risk factors: A comparison of sleep, weather, and temporal features using a Bayesian forecast.

OBJECTIVE: Most seizure forecasting algorithms have relied on features specific to electroencephalographic recordings. Environmental and physiological factors, such as weather and sleep, have long been suspected to affect brain activity and seizure occurrence but have not been fully explored as prior information for seizure forecasts in a patient-specific analysis. The study aimed to quantify whether sleep, weather, and temporal factors (time of day, day of week, and lunar phase) can provide predictive prior probabilities that may be used to improve seizure forecasts. METHODS: This study performed post hoc analysis on data from eight patients with a total of 12.2 years of continuous intracranial electroencephalographic recordings (average = 1.5 years, range = 1.0-2.1 years), originally collected in a prospective trial. Patients also had sleep scoring and location-specific weather data. Histograms of future seizure likelihood were generated for each feature. The predictive utility of individual features was measured using a Bayesian approach to combine different features into an overall forecast of seizure likelihood. Performance of different feature combinations was compared using the area under the receiver operating curve. Performance evaluation was pseudoprospective. RESULTS: For the eight patients studied, seizures could be predicted above chance accuracy using sleep (five patients), weather (two patients), and temporal features (six patients). Forecasts using combined features performed significantly better than chance in six patients. For four of these patients, combined forecasts outperformed any individual feature. SIGNIFICANCE: Environmental and physiological data, including sleep, weather, and temporal features, provide significant predictive information on upcoming seizures. Although forecasts did not perform as well as algorithms that use invasive intracranial electroencephalography, the results were significantly above chance. Complementary signal features derived from an individual's historic seizure records may provide useful prior information to augment traditional seizure detection or forecasting algorithms. Importantly, many predictive features used in this study can be measured noninvasively.

Postictal suppression and seizure durations: A patient-specific, long-term iEEG analysis.

OBJECTIVE: We report on patient-specific durations of postictal periods in long-term intracranial electroencephalography (iEEG) recordings. The objective was to investigate the relationship between seizure duration and postictal suppression duration. METHODS: Long-term recording iEEG from 9 patients (>50 seizures recorded) were analyzed. In total, 2310 seizures were recorded during a total of 13.8 years of recording. Postictal suppression duration was calculated as the duration after seizure termination until total signal energy returned to background levels. The relationship between seizure duration and postictal suppression duration was quantified using the correlation coefficient (r). The effects of populations of seizures within patients, on correlations, were also considered. Populations of seizures within patients were distinguished by seizure duration thresholds and k-means clustering along the dimensions of seizure duration and postictal suppression duration. The effects of bursts of seizures were also considered by defining populations based on interseizure interval (ISI). RESULTS: Seizure duration accounted for 40% of postictal suppression duration variance, aggregated across all patients and seizures. Seizure duration accounted for more than 25% of the variance in postictal suppression duration in 2 patients and accounted for less than 25% in the remaining 7. In 3 patients, heat maps showed multiple distinct postictal patterns indicating multiple populations of seizures. When accounting for these populations, seizure duration accounted for less than 25% of the variance in postictal duration in all populations. Variance in postictal suppression duration accounted for less than 10% of ISI variance in all patients. SIGNIFICANCE: We have previously demonstrated that some patients have multiple seizure populations distinguishable by seizure duration. This article shows that different seizure populations have distinct and consistent postictal behaviors. The existence of multiple populations in some patients has implications for seizure management and forecasting, whereas the distinct postictal behaviors may have implications for sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP) prediction and prevention.