A comparison of population viability measures.

The viability of populations can be quantified with several measures, such as the probability of extinction, the mean time to extinction, or the population size. While conservation management decisions can be based on these measures, it has not yet been explored systematically if different viability measures rank species and scenarios similarly and if one viability measure can be converted into another to compare studies. To address this challenge, we conducted a quantitative comparison of eight viability measures based on the simulated population dynamics of more than 4500 virtual species. We compared (a) the ranking of scenarios based on different viability measures, (b) assessed direct correlations between the measures, and (c) explored if parameters in the simulation models can alter the relationship between pairs of viability measures. We found that viability measures ranked species similarly. Despite this, direct correlations between the different measures were often weak and could not be generalized. This can be explained by the loss of information due to the aggregation of raw data into a single number, the effect of model parameters on the relationship between viability measures, and because distributions, such as the probability of extinction over time, cannot be ranked objectively. Similar scenario rankings by different viability measures show that the choice of the viability metric does in many cases not alter which population is regarded more viable or which management option is the best. However, the more two scenarios or populations differ, the more likely it becomes that different measures produce different rankings. We thus recommend that PVA studies publish raw simulation data, which not only describes all risks and opportunities to the reader but also facilitates meta-analyses of PVA studies.

Environmental controls on butterfly occurrence and species richness in Israel: The importance of temperature over rainfall.

Butterflies are considered important indicators representing the state of biodiversity and key ecosystem functions, but their use as bioindicators requires a better understanding of how their observed response is linked to environmental factors. Moreover, better understanding how butterfly faunas vary with climate and land cover may be useful to estimate the potential impacts of various drivers, including climate change, botanical succession, grazing, and afforestation. It is particularly important to establish which species of butterflies are sensitive to each environmental driver. The study took place in Israel, including the West Bank and Golan Heights. To develop a robust and systematic approach for identifying how butterfly faunas vary with the environment, we analyzed the occurrence of 73 species and the abundance of 24 species from Israeli Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (BMS-IL) data. We used regional generalized additive models to quantify butterfly abundance, and generalized linear latent variable models and generalized linear models to quantify the impact of temperature, rainfall, soil type, and habitat on individual species and on the species community. Species richness was higher for cooler transects, and also for hilly and mountainous transects in the Mediterranean region (rendzina and Terra rossa soils) compared with the coastal plain (Hamra soil) and semiarid northern Jordan Vale (loessial sierozem soil). Species occurrence was better explained by temperature (negative correlation) than precipitation, while for abundance the opposite pattern was found. Soil type and habitat were insignificant drivers of occurrence and abundance. Butterfly faunas responded very strongly to temperature, even when accounting for other environmental factors. We expect that some butterfly species will disappear from marginal sites with global warming, and a large proportion will become rarer as the region becomes increasingly arid.

InsectChange: a global database of temporal changes in insect and arachnid assemblages.

Insects are the most ubiquitous and diverse group of eukaryotic organisms on Earth, forming a crucial link in terrestrial and freshwater food webs. They have recently become the subject of headlines because of observations of dramatic declines in some places. Although there are hundreds of long-term insect monitoring programs, a global database for long-term data on insect assemblages has so far remained unavailable. In order to facilitate synthetic analyses of insect abundance changes, we compiled a database of long-term (≥10 yr) studies of assemblages of insects (many also including arachnids) in the terrestrial and freshwater realms. We searched the scientific literature and public repositories for data on insect and arachnid monitoring using standardized protocols over a time span of 10 yr or longer, with at least two sampling events. We focused on studies that presented or allowed calculation of total community abundance or biomass. We extracted data from tables, figures, and appendices, and, for data sets that provided raw data, we standardized trapping effort over space and time when necessary. For each site, we extracted provenance details (such as country, state, and continent) as well as information on protection status, land use, and climatic details from publicly available GIS sources. In all, the database contains 1,668 plot-level time series sourced from 165 studies with samples collected between 1925 and 2018. Sixteen data sets provided here were previously unpublished. Studies were separated into those collected in the terrestrial realm (103 studies with a total of 1,053 plots) and those collected in the freshwater realm (62 studies with 615 plots). Most studies were from Europe (48%) and North America (29%), with 34% of the plots located in protected areas. The median monitoring time span was 19 yr, with 12 sampling years. The number of individuals was reported in 129 studies, the total biomass was reported in 13 studies, and both abundance and biomass were reported in 23 studies. This data set is published under a CC-BY license, requiring attribution of the data source. Please cite this paper if the data are used in publications, and respect the licenses of the original sources when using (part of) their data as detailed in Metadata S1: Table 1.

Biodiversity policy beyond economic growth.

Increasing evidence-synthesized in this paper-shows that economic growth contributes to biodiversity loss via greater resource consumption and higher emissions. Nonetheless, a review of international biodiversity and sustainability policies shows that the majority advocate economic growth. Since improvements in resource use efficiency have so far not allowed for absolute global reductions in resource use and pollution, we question the support for economic growth in these policies, where inadequate attention is paid to the question of how growth can be decoupled from biodiversity loss. Drawing on the literature about alternatives to economic growth, we explore this contradiction and suggest ways forward to halt global biodiversity decline. These include policy proposals to move beyond the growth paradigm while enhancing overall prosperity, which can be implemented by combining top-down and bottom-up governance across scales. Finally, we call the attention of researchers and policy makers to two immediate steps: acknowledge the conflict between economic growth and biodiversity conservation in future policies; and explore socioeconomic trajectories beyond economic growth in the next generation of biodiversity scenarios.

Action needed for the EU Common Agricultural Policy to address sustainability challenges.

Making agriculture sustainable is a global challenge. In the European Union (EU), the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is failing with respect to biodiversity, climate, soil, land degradation as well as socio-economic challenges.The European Commission's proposal for a CAP post-2020 provides a scope for enhanced sustainability. However, it also allows Member States to choose low-ambition implementation pathways. It therefore remains essential to address citizens' demands for sustainable agriculture and rectify systemic weaknesses in the CAP, using the full breadth of available scientific evidence and knowledge.Concerned about current attempts to dilute the environmental ambition of the future CAP, and the lack of concrete proposals for improving the CAP in the draft of the European Green Deal, we call on the European Parliament, Council and Commission to adopt 10 urgent action points for delivering sustainable food production, biodiversity conservation and climate mitigation.Knowledge is available to help moving towards evidence-based, sustainable European agriculture that can benefit people, nature and their joint futures.The statements made in this article have the broad support of the scientific community, as expressed by above 3,600 signatories to the preprint version of this manuscript. The list can be found here (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3685632).

Analysis of monitoring data where butterflies fly year-round.

Butterfly Monitoring Schemes (BMSs) engage the public in conservation and provide data sets that cover broad geographical areas over long timescales. Most existing BMSs are in temperate climates; however, the Israeli Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (BMS-IL), established in 2009, is a notable exception as it encompasses a large climatic gradient from Euro-Siberian through Mediterranean to hyper-arid regions. Israel's climate poses challenges in analyzing data from year-round butterfly activity, as in other tropical or arid countries. The Regional Generalized Additive Model (Regional GAM) is a butterfly phenology and abundance model based on repeat visits throughout species' flight season. We tested the applicability of Regional GAM for species with complex flight seasonality (e.g., multivoltine) by comparing estimated abundance and seasonal indices for the full data set and rarefied subsets. We assessed the reliability of modeled flight seasons and compared abundance estimates per site resulting from biologically plausible and unreliable seasonal models. The reliability of Regional GAM rises with the number of observations, and the model tends to produce more biologically plausible models for species with simple phenologies (e.g., univoltine with a single peak in activity). Abundance estimates based on unreliable models produce values with inter-quartile ranges of 90%-153% compared with biologically plausible models, while peak time changes with an interquartile range of 0-22.5 d when comparing all rarefied models with the full data set. Regional GAM should be applied with great caution for rare species and those with a complex flight season, and the date of year start needs to be carefully chosen for species that are active year-round. We identified the key sources of error and propose an operational workflow to address them. With few adaptations, Regional GAM can support new BMSs in analyzing data where butterflies are active year-round, including tropical climates. We propose guidelines for analyzing BMS data for species or regions with long activity periods and complex phenologies.

Differential effects of habitat loss on occupancy patterns of the eastern green lizard Lacerta viridis at the core and periphery of its distribution range.

The effects of habitat loss on the distribution of populations are often linked with species specialization degree. Specialist species can be more affected by changes in landscape structure and local patch characteristics compared to generalist species. Moreover, the spatial scale at which different land covers (eg. habitat, cropland, urban areas) affect specialist species can be smaller. Specialization is usually assumed as a constant trait along the distribution range of species. However, for several taxa, there is evidence of higher specialization degree in peripheral populations compared with populations in the core. Hence, peripheral populations should have a higher sensitivity to habitat loss, and strongest effects should be found at a smaller spatial scale. To test these expectations, we implemented a patch-landscape approach at different spatial scales, and compared effects of landscape structure and patch characteristics on occupancy probability among northern peripheral, more specialized populations (Czech Republic) and core populations (Bulgaria) of the eastern green lizard Lacerta viridis. We found that landscape structure and patch characteristics affect differently the occupancy probability of Lacerta viridis in each region. Strongest effects of habitat loss were found at a spatial scale of 150m around patches in the periphery, but at a scale of 500m in the core. In the periphery occupancy probability of populations was principally affected by landscape composition, and the effect of habitat quality was stronger compared to core populations. In the core, persistence of populations was mainly explained by characteristics of the spatial configuration of habitat patches. We discuss possible ecological mechanisms behind the relationship between sensitivity to habitat loss, populations' specialization degree and position in the distribution range, and suggest conservation measures for L. viridis.

EFForTS-LGraf: A landscape generator for creating smallholder-driven land-use mosaics.

Spatially-explicit simulation models are commonly used to study complex ecological and socio-economic research questions. Often these models depend on detailed input data, such as initial land-cover maps to set up model simulations. Here we present the landscape generator EFFortS-LGraf that provides artificially-generated land-use maps of agricultural landscapes shaped by small-scale farms. EFForTS-LGraf is a process-based landscape generator that explicitly incorporates the human dimension of land-use change. The model generates roads and villages that consist of smallholder farming households. These smallholders use different establishment strategies to create fields in their close vicinity. Crop types are distributed to these fields based on crop fractions and specialization levels. EFForTS-LGraf model parameters such as household area or field size frequency distributions can be derived from household surveys or geospatial data. This can be an advantage over the abstract parameters of neutral landscape generators. We tested the model using oil palm and rubber farming in Indonesia as a case study and validated the artificially-generated maps against classified satellite images. Our results show that EFForTS-LGraf is able to generate realistic land-cover maps with properties that lie within the boundaries of landscapes from classified satellite images. An applied simulation experiment on landscape-level effects of increasing household area and crop specialization revealed that larger households with higher specialization levels led to spatially more homogeneous and less scattered crop type distributions and reduced edge area proportion. Thus, EFForTS-LGraf can be applied both to generate maps as inputs for simulation modelling and as a stand-alone tool for specific landscape-scale analyses in the context of ecological-economic studies of smallholder farming systems.

Rewilding complex ecosystems.

The practice of rewilding has been both promoted and criticized in recent years. Benefits include flexibility to react to environmental change and the promotion of opportunities for society to reconnect with nature. Criticisms include the lack of a clear conceptualization of rewilding, insufficient knowledge about possible outcomes, and the perception that rewilding excludes people from landscapes. Here, we present a framework for rewilding that addresses these concerns. We suggest that rewilding efforts should target trophic complexity, natural disturbances, and dispersal as interacting processes that can improve ecosystem resilience and maintain biodiversity. We propose a structured approach to rewilding projects that includes assessment of the contributions of nature to people and the social-ecological constraints on restoration.

Calibrating an individual-based movement model to predict functional connectivity for little owls.

Dispersal is crucial for population viability and thus a popular target for conservation measures. However, the ability of individuals to move between habitat patches is notoriously difficult to estimate. One solution is to quantify functional connectivity via realistic individual-based movement models. Such simulation models, however, are difficult to build and even more difficult to parameterize. Here, we use the example of natal little owl (Athene noctua) dispersal to develop a new analysis chain for the calibration of individual-based dispersal models using a hybrid of statistical parameter estimation and Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). Specifically, we use locations of 126 radio-tracked juveniles to first estimate habitat utilization by generalized additive models (GAMs) and the biased random bridges (BRB) method. We then include the estimated parameters in a spatially explicit individual-based model (IBM) of little owl dispersal and calibrate further movement parameters using ABC. To derive efficient summary statistics, we use a new dimension reduction method based on random forest (RF) regression. Finally, we use the calibrated IBM to predict the dispersal potential of little owls from local populations in southwestern Germany to suitable habitat patches in northern Switzerland. We show that pre-calibrating habitat preference parameters while inferring movement behavioral parameters via ABC is a computationally efficient solution to obtain a plausible IBM parameterization. We also find that dimension reduction via RF regression outperforms the widely used least squares regression, which we applied as a benchmark approach. Estimated movement parameters for the individuals reveal plausible inter-individual and inter-sexual differences in movement behavior during natal dispersal. In agreement with a sex-biased dispersal distance in little owls, females show longer individual flights and higher directional persistence. Simulations from the fitted model indicate that a (re)colonization of northern Switzerland is generally possible, albeit restricted. We conclude that the presented analysis chain is a sensible work-flow to assess dispersal connectivity across species and ecosystems. It embraces species- and individual-specific behavioral responses to the landscape and allows likelihood-based calibration, despite an irregular sampling design. Our study highlights existing, yet narrow dispersal corridors, which may require enhancements to facilitate a recolonization of little owl habitat patches in northern Switzerland.

Realized niche and microhabitat selection of the eastern green lizard (Lacerta viridis) at the core and periphery of its distribution range.

The available range of habitats and suitable abiotic conditions like temperature and radiation tends to be narrower toward the periphery of the distribution range of species. Peripheral populations of generalist species could then be more specialized and have a smaller and differentiated realized niche (habitat niche in our study) compared to populations at the core. Likewise, patterns of microhabitat selection can differ between periphery and core. In our study, we compared niche size and microhabitat selection among core (Bulgaria) and northern peripheral (Germany, Czech Republic) populations of Lacerta viridis and estimated niche differentiation among regions. We collected data on vegetation structure and abiotic parameters at the microhabitat scale in each region. In order to compare niche size among regions and estimate niche differentiation, we built multidimensional niche hypervolumes. We applied generalized linear mixed models and model averaging, accounting for spatial autocorrelation when necessary, to analyze microhabitat differences among regions and microhabitat selection in each region. Peripheral populations were more specialized, having a smaller niche than core ones, and their niche differed from that in the core (Sørensen overlap in all comparisons <0.3). Microhabitats at the periphery had lower radiation and soil compaction and less structured vegetation. Microhabitat selection at the core depended solely on abiotic parameters, while at the periphery it was defined by only vegetation structure (Czech Republic) or a combination of both, vegetation structure, and abiotic factors (Germany). Thus, peripheral populations seem to compensate for overall harsher climatic conditions by responding to different parameters of the microhabitat compared to core populations. We suggest specific conservation measures for L. virids in each studied region and point out the general implications of a higher specialization degree of peripheral populations in relation to climate change and habitat fragmentation.

Environmental characteristics drive variation in Amazonian understorey bird assemblages.

Tropical bird assemblages display patterns of high alpha and beta diversity and, as tropical birds exhibit strong habitat specificity, their spatial distributions are generally assumed to be driven primarily by environmental heterogeneity and interspecific interactions. However, spatial distributions of some Amazonian forest birds are also often restricted by large rivers and other large-scale topographic features, suggesting that dispersal limitation may also play a role in driving species' turnover. In this study, we evaluated the effects of environmental characteristics, topographic and spatial variables on variation in local assemblage structure and diversity of birds in an old-growth forest in central Amazonia. Birds were mist-netted in 72 plots distributed systematically across a 10,000 ha reserve in each of three years. Alpha diversity remained stable through time, but species composition changed. Spatial variation in bird-assemblage structure was significantly related to environmental and topographic variables but not strongly related to spatial variables. At a broad scale, we found bird assemblages to be significantly distinct between two watersheds that are divided by a central ridgeline. We did not detect an effect of the ridgeline per se in driving these patterns, indicating that most birds are able to fly across it, and that differences in assemblage structure between watersheds may be due to unmeasured environmental variables or unique combinations of measured variables. Our study indicates that complex geography and landscape features can act together with environmental variables to drive changes in the diversity and composition of tropical bird assemblages at local scales, but highlights that we still know very little about what makes different parts of tropical forest suitable for different species.

A review of the ecosystem functions in oil palm plantations, using forests as a reference system.

Oil palm plantations have expanded rapidly in recent decades. This large-scale land-use change has had great ecological, economic, and social impacts on both the areas converted to oil palm and their surroundings. However, research on the impacts of oil palm cultivation is scattered and patchy, and no clear overview exists. We address this gap through a systematic and comprehensive literature review of all ecosystem functions in oil palm plantations, including several (genetic, medicinal and ornamental resources, information functions) not included in previous systematic reviews. We compare ecosystem functions in oil palm plantations to those in forests, as the conversion of forest to oil palm is prevalent in the tropics. We find that oil palm plantations generally have reduced ecosystem functioning compared to forests: 11 out of 14 ecosystem functions show a net decrease in level of function. Some functions show decreases with potentially irreversible global impacts (e.g. reductions in gas and climate regulation, habitat and nursery functions, genetic resources, medicinal resources, and information functions). The most serious impacts occur when forest is cleared to establish new plantations, and immediately afterwards, especially on peat soils. To variable degrees, specific plantation management measures can prevent or reduce losses of some ecosystem functions (e.g. avoid illegal land clearing via fire, avoid draining of peat, use of integrated pest management, use of cover crops, mulch, and compost) and we highlight synergistic mitigation measures that can improve multiple ecosystem functions simultaneously. The only ecosystem function which increases in oil palm plantations is, unsurprisingly, the production of marketable goods. Our review highlights numerous research gaps. In particular, there are significant gaps with respect to socio-cultural information functions. Further, there is a need for more empirical data on the importance of spatial and temporal scales, such as differences among plantations in different environments, of different sizes, and of different ages, as our review has identified examples where ecosystem functions vary spatially and temporally. Finally, more research is needed on developing management practices that can offset the losses of ecosystem functions. Our findings should stimulate research to address the identified gaps, and provide a foundation for more systematic research and discussion on ways to minimize the negative impacts and maximize the positive impacts of oil palm cultivation.

A global map of roadless areas and their conservation status.

Roads fragment landscapes and trigger human colonization and degradation of ecosystems, to the detriment of biodiversity and ecosystem functions. The planet's remaining large and ecologically important tracts of roadless areas sustain key refugia for biodiversity and provide globally relevant ecosystem services. Applying a 1-kilometer buffer to all roads, we present a global map of roadless areas and an assessment of their status, quality, and extent of coverage by protected areas. About 80% of Earth's terrestrial surface remains roadless, but this area is fragmented into ~600,000 patches, more than half of which are <1 square kilometer and only 7% of which are larger than 100 square kilometers. Global protection of ecologically valuable roadless areas is inadequate. International recognition and protection of roadless areas is urgently needed to halt their continued loss.