RESUMO
Shifts for natural ecosystems were increasingly concerned due to its profound impacts on ecosystem services. Ponds within lowland artificial watersheds (polders) play a critical role in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycling. From the perspective of N & P control in management practices, it is needed to determine an optimal pond area ratio for polders. For this purpose, our study proposed a process-based modelling framework to investigate the response of polder N & P loss to pond area, and thus to determine the threshold value of pond area ratio to achieve maximum N & P reduction for polders. The proposed framework included two process-based models (NDP and PDP) specially developed to describe N & P dynamics in lowland polders. To evaluate the proposed performance of the framework, it was applied to 171 polders in Zhong River Watershed in Lake Taihu Basin, eastern China. Our investigation results revealed that the correlation between polder N & P reduction rate and pond area ratio had an abrupt shift of 13.6 %, 14.7 % for N & P, respectively. Therefore, polders with a pond area ratio of 13.6-14.7 % had the largest N & P reduction (5.27 and 0.19 kg/ha). Polder size affected P reduction rate, with smaller polders (<200 ha) showing a higher P reduction rate, while it did not affect N reduction rate. Compared with annual precipitation, rainy-season precipitation more significantly (P<0.01) determined polder N & P reduction. This study demonstrated the use of our process-based framework in characterizing the shifts for the pond area ratio for polders, and thus provided technical support for N & P control of lowland areas in water management practices.