Nomogram for Predicting Long-term Outcomes of Encephaloduroarteriosynangiosis in Toddlers with Moyamoya Disease: a Longitudinal and Cross-sectional Study.

We investigated the long-term outcomes of encephaloduroarteriosynangiosis (EDAS) for stroke prevention in toddlers with moyamoya disease (MMD) using nomogram. Between January 2005 and December 2018, 74 toddlers with MMD underwent surgery in the Fifth Medical Centre, Chinese PLA General Hospital, 69 were < 4 years of age and included in the analysis. The modified Rankin scale (mRS) during follow-up evaluated clinical outcomes. To measure the effectiveness of EDAS, the annual risk of symptomatic infarction within the operated brain hemispheres was calculated. The event-free survival rate was determined using Kaplan-Meier curves. A nomogram generated using multivariate logistic regression analysis identified potential predictors associated with unfavorable outcomes. Additionally, discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility were assessed. A favorable clinical outcome was observed in 81.2% of the patients. The operated hemispheres showed an annual risk of 0.87% of symptomatic infarction and 0.23% of hemorrhage. Moreover, the 10-year event-free survival rates were 92.8% and 97.0% for symptomatic infarction and hemorrhage. Multivariate logistic analysis indicated that onset with infarction, initial mRS ≥ 3, and perioperative adverse events had significant and independent associations with unfavorable outcomes. However, an age at diagnosis of ≥ 2 years showed an association with favorable outcomes. Using these four factors, our model attained a concordance index of 0.912 (95% confidence interval, 0.842-0.982), well-fitted calibration curve, and cutoff value of 0.212 for predicting unfavorable outcomes. EDAS may prevent recurrent stroke and improve overall long-term clinical outcomes in toddlers with MMD. The developed nomogram accurately predicted unfavorable outcomes and assisted surgeons in patient evaluation.

Risk Factors for Preoperative Cerebral Infarction in Infants with Moyamoya Disease.

There have been few reports on the risk factors for preoperative cerebral infarction in childhood moyamoya disease (MMD) in infants under 4 years. The aim of this retrospective study is to identify clinical and radiological risk factors for preoperative cerebral infarction in infants under 4 years old with MMD, and the optimal timing for EDAS was also considered. We retrospectively analyzed the risk factors for preoperative cerebral infarction, confirmed by magnetic resonance angiography (MRA), in pediatric patients aged ˂4 years who underwent encephaloduroarteriosynangiosis between April 2005 and July 2022. The clinical and radiological outcomes were determined by two independent reviewers. In addition, potential risk factors for preoperative cerebral infarction, including infarctions at diagnosis and while awaiting surgery, were analyzed using a univariate model and multivariate logistic regression to identify independent predictors of preoperative cerebral infarction. A total of 160 hemispheres from 83 patients aged <4 years with MMD were included in this study. The mean age of all surgical hemispheres at diagnosis was 2.17±0.831 years (range 0.380-3.81 years). In the multivariate logistic regression model, we included all variables with P<0.1 in the univariate analysis. The multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that preoperative MRA grade (odds ratio [OR], 2.05 [95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3-3.25], P=0. 002), and age at diagnosis (OR, 0.61 [95% CI, 0.4-0.92], P=0. 018) were predictive factors of infarction at diagnosis. The analysis further indicated that the onset of infarction (OR, 0.01 [95% CI, 0-0.08], P<0.001), preoperative MRA grade (OR, 1.7 [95% CI, 1.03-2.8], P=0.037), and duration from diagnosis to surgery (Diag-Op) (OR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.11-1.41], P<0.001) were predictive factors for infarction while awaiting surgery. Moreover, the regression analysis indicated that family history (OR, 8.88 [95% CI, 0.91-86.83], P=0.06), preoperative MRA grade (OR, 8.72 [95% CI, 3.44-22.07], P<0.001), age at diagnosis (OR, 0.36 [95% CI, 0.14-0.91], P=0.031), and Diag-Op (OR, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.14-1.67], P=0.001) were predictive factors for total infarction. Therefore, during the entire treatment process, careful observation, adequate risk factor management, and optimal operation time are required to prevent preoperative cerebral infarction, particularly in pediatric patients with a family history, higher preoperative MRA grade, duration from diagnosis to operation longer than 3.53 months, and aged ˂3 years at diagnosis.