Dynamic evolution and trend prediction in coupling coordination between urban and rural space utilization efficiency based local and tele-coupling model.

Optimizing the pattern of territorial space utilization is one of the key tasks to achieve the sustainable development goals. With the accelerating rate of global urbanization, the understanding of territorial space utilization efficiency, role and potential is a prerequisite for alleviating contradictions in urban and rural space distribution. The city cluster is the main form of organization for urban development in future, so the study attempted to explore the urban and rural space utilization efficiency (URSUE) in Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration (CCEC) from coupling coordination degree (CCD) perspective. Considering the gradual increase in the trend of remote interactions between URSUE, we further introduced the Local and Tele-coupling coordination (LTCCD) model that takes into account interactive development relationship between different systems. The results of the study show that: In CCEC, the more economically developed cities indicated that urban spatial utilization efficiency lags behind rural spatial utilization efficiency; The LTCCD in the geographic center region will indicate a higher level but the LTCCD in the economic core cities is higher compared with their CCD level, especially in Chengdu City. This suggests that the LTCCD model is better able to take into account regional development correlations and spatial spillovers effect. This study attempts to explore several key issues of urban-rural spatial allocation in the process of urbanization development and to provide guidance for the territorial space utilization planning in urban agglomerations.

Study on the Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Ecological Security in Stages Based on the DPSIRM-SBM Model: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.

Scientific assessment of urban ecological security (ES) is an important prerequisite to realize regional sustainable development. Previous studies lack the consideration of quality and poor systematic correlation, which could not reflect the internal dynamic relationship. On the basis of considering the time lag, this study divided the research process into the natural operation stage and the management feedback stage based on the driving forces, pressures, state, impacts, responses, management (DPSIRM) framework model and DEA theory, so as to effectively overcome the above shortcomings. Finally, we analyzed the spatio-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of the ES level of 108 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) during 2005-2019. The results showed that: (a) both two stages showed a slow and fluctuating upward trend in time series, and the level of urban ES in the management feedback stage was significantly higher than that in the natural operation stage; (b) with the passage of time, the spatial distribution of ES in the natural operation stage gradually developed towards the middle and downstream of the YREB, while the management feedback stage mainly evolved from the midstream to the edge area; (c) the level of urban ES presented a different degree of spatial agglomeration phenomenon, and showed an increasing trend over time; and (d) the key influencing factors gradually changed from pressure to response during 2005-2019. This research aims to provide an innovative perspective for the measurement of urban ES, and provide scientific reference for improving urban ecological sustainable development.

How can multiscenario flow paths of water supply services be simulated? A supply-flow-demand model of ecosystem services across a typical basin in China.

Ecosystems provide many benefits to humans, and among them, water supply is crucial for human survival and development. This research focused on the Yangtze River Basin as the research area, quantitatively evaluated the temporal-spatial dynamic changes in the supply and demand of water supply services and determined the spatial relationship between the supply and demand regions of water supply services. We constructed the supply-flow-demand model of water supply service to quantify its flow. In our research, the Bayesian model was used to establish a multiscenario model of the water supply service flow path to simulate it and clarify its spatial flow path, flow direction and flow magnitude from the supply region to the demand region and determine its changing characteristics and driving factors in the basin. The results show that (1) In 2010, 2015 and 2020, the amount of water supply services showed a decreasing trend and was approximately 133.57 × 1012 m3, 129.97 × 1012 m3 and 120.82 × 1012 m3, respectively. (2) From 2010 to 2020, the trend of the cumulative flow of water supply service flow decreased each year and was 59.814 × 1012 m3, 56.930 × 1012 m3, 56.325 × 1012 m3 respectively. (3) Under the multiscenario simulation, the flow path of the water supply service was generally the same. The proportion of the water supply region was the highest under the green environmental protection scenario, at 73.8 %, and the proportion of the water demand region was the highest under the economic development and social progress scenario, at 27.3 %. (4) The provinces and municipalities in the basin were divided into three types of regions according to the matching relationship between supply and demand: catchment region, flow pass-through region and outflow region. The number of outflow regions was lowest, accounting for 23.53 %% of the regions, while the number of flow pass-through regions was the highest, accounting for 52.94 %.

How can an ecological compensation threshold be determined? A discriminant model integrating the minimum data approach and the most appropriate land use scenarios.

Ecological compensation has become very common worldwide due to the imbalance in the development of modern society, economy, and the environment and the increased pressure on ecosystem carrying capacity. Nonetheless, the various approaches for quantifying ecological compensation standards differ significantly. Thus, the process for determining a reasonable ecological compensation threshold is important to understand. To ensure the maximization of ecosystem service supply and economic benefit incentives for farmers, this paper constructs a discriminant model of an ecological compensation threshold based on the minimum data approach and the most appropriate land use scenario to define the ecological compensation threshold of the Sloping Land Conversion Program in the upper Yangtze River basin. The results show that with an increase in the compensation price, the proportion of farmers participating in returning farmland to forests and grassland increases, and water conservation increases. However, the discriminant curve first increases to a certain threshold point and then decreases, after which the ecoefficiency rate obtained from the compensation decreases. The ecological compensation thresholds for Chongqing, Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou, Hubei, Qinghai, Gansu, Tibet and Shaanxi provinces are 17.74 yuan/m3, 13.79 yuan/m3, 19.1 yuan/m3, 17.79 yuan/m3, 15.28 yuan/m3, 45.14 yuan/m3, 17.23 yuan/m3, 25.2 yuan/m3 and 22.36 yuan/m3, respectively. This research examines ecological compensation standards in different watersheds throughout the world and discusses the relationship between ecological compensation and water conservation. The discriminant model of the ecological compensation threshold can provide a new reference for the implementation and management of ecological compensation policies.