A hierarchical Bayesian approach for modeling the evolution of the 7-day moving average of the number of deaths by COVID-19.

In this paper, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian approach for modeling the evolution of the 7-day moving average for the number of deaths due to COVID-19 in a country, state or city. The proposed approach is based on a Gaussian process regression model. The main advantage of this model is that it assumes that a nonlinear function f used for modeling the observed data is an unknown random parameter in opposite to usual approaches that set up f as being a known mathematical function. This assumption allows the development of a Bayesian approach with a Gaussian process prior over f. In order to estimate the parameters of interest, we develop an MCMC algorithm based on the Metropolis-within-Gibbs sampling algorithm. We also present a procedure for making predictions. The proposed method is illustrated in a case study, in which, we model the 7-day moving average for the number of deaths recorded in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Results obtained show that the proposed method is very effective in modeling and predicting the values of the 7-day moving average.

Plasma brain-derived neurotrophic factor is higher after combat training (Randori) than incremental ramp test in elite judo athletes.

Elite judo demands high levels of physical and psychological skills. The brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) may be of particular interest in sports medicine for its ability to promote neuroplasticity. We investigated the plasma BDNF before and after a judo training session (Randori) and the maximal incremental ramp test (MIRT) in athletes from the Brazilian national judo team and compared the results between both exercise stimuli and sexes. Fifty-six elite judo athletes were recruited who performed each task on a separated day. Anthropometric, physiological, athletic parameters, and plasma BDNF levels were measured before and after the tasks (Randori and MIRT). The groups presented similar anthropometric and physiological characteristics at baseline for the two tasks. All athletes reached maximal performance for the tasks. Plasma levels of BDNF increased significantly after Randori and MIRT for all subjects, both men and women. When comparing both exercise stimuli, a greater increase in BDNF was observed after Randori. There was no significant difference in the delta BDNF between sexes. Our findings indicate that training specificity of sport gestures influenced the increase of blood BDNF levels.

Plasma brain-derived neurotrophic factor is higher after combat training (Randori) than incremental ramp test in elite judo athletes

Elite judo demands high levels of physical and psychological skills. The brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) may be of particular interest in sports medicine for its ability to promote neuroplasticity. We investigated the plasma BDNF before and after a judo training session (Randori) and the maximal incremental ramp test (MIRT) in athletes from the Brazilian national judo team and compared the results between both exercise stimuli and sexes. Fifty-six elite judo athletes were recruited who performed each task on a separated day. Anthropometric, physiological, athletic parameters, and plasma BDNF levels were measured before and after the tasks (Randori and MIRT). The groups presented similar anthropometric and physiological characteristics at baseline for the two tasks. All athletes reached maximal performance for the tasks. Plasma levels of BDNF increased significantly after Randori and MIRT for all subjects, both men and women. When comparing both exercise stimuli, a greater increase in BDNF was observed after Randori. There was no significant difference in the delta BDNF between sexes. Our findings indicate that training specificity of sport gestures influenced the increase of blood BDNF levels.

A Set of miRNAs, Their Gene and Protein Targets and Stromal Genes Distinguish Early from Late Onset ER Positive Breast Cancer.

UNLABELLED: Breast cancer (BC) in young adult patients (YA) has a more aggressive biological behavior and is associated with a worse prognosis than BC arising in middle aged patients (MA). We proposed that differentially expressed miRNAs could regulate genes and proteins underlying aggressive phenotypes of breast tumors in YA patients when compared to those arising in MA patients. OBJECTIVE: Using integrated expression analyses of miRs, their mRNA and protein targets and stromal gene expression, we aimed to identify differentially expressed profiles between tumors from YA-BC and MA-BC. METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS: Samples of ER+ invasive ductal breast carcinomas, divided into two groups: YA-BC (35 years or less) or MA-BC (50-65 years) were evaluated. Screening for BRCA1/2 status according to the BOADICEA program indicated low risk of patients being carriers of these mutations. Aggressive characteristics were more evident in YA-BC versus MA-BC. Performing qPCR, we identified eight miRs differentially expressed (miR-9, 18b, 33b, 106a, 106b, 210, 518a-3p and miR-372) between YA-BC and MA-BC tumors with high confidence statement, which were associated with aggressive clinicopathological characteristics. The expression profiles by microarray identified 602 predicted target genes associated to proliferation, cell cycle and development biological functions. Performing RPPA, 24 target proteins differed between both groups and 21 were interconnected within a network protein-protein interactions associated with proliferation, development and metabolism pathways over represented in YA-BC. Combination of eight mRNA targets or the combination of eight target proteins defined indicators able to classify individual samples into YA-BC or MA-BC groups. Fibroblast-enriched stroma expression profile analysis resulted in 308 stromal genes differentially expressed between YA-BC and MA-BC. CONCLUSION: We defined a set of differentially expressed miRNAs, their mRNAs and protein targets and stromal genes that distinguish early onset from late onset ER positive breast cancers which may be involved with tumor aggressiveness of YA-BC.

Micronuclei as biomarkers for evaluating the risk of malignant transformation in the uterine cervix.

We evaluated micronucleus and apoptosis occurrence among women with normal smears and women with different kinds of cervical abnormalities, i.e., inflammatory processes and low- and high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (N = 12, N = 10 and N = 27, respectively). The sample included 59 women who were seen at a public medical service for cervical cancer prevention in Feira de Santana, Bahia, Brazil. The diagnosis was established by means of cytological, colposcopic, and histopathological examination. Cytogenetic analysis was performed on 2000 cells from each woman and included assessment of micronuclei and nuclear degenerative abnormalities indicative of apoptosis (karyorrhexis, pyknosis and condensed chromatin). Micronucleus frequency was significantly higher in the women with high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions than in the women without cervical abnormalities or inflammatory processes (P< 0.001) or in the women with low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (P < 0.005). The frequency of apoptosis was similar in women without cervical abnormalities and women showing high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (P > 0.50), and significantly lower in women without cervical abnormalities and in women showing high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions than in women showing inflammatory processes or low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (P < 0.0001). These results indicate that, in addition to Papanicolaou cervical cytological analysis, it would be useful to use micronucleus analysis to screen women who are at risk of developing cervical cancer. The assessment of nuclear degenerative abnormalities indicative of apoptosis increased the sensitivity of this test.

Molluscicidal and ovicidal activities of plant extracts of the Piperaceae on Biomphalaria glabrata (Say, 1818).

Schistosomiasis is a tropical disease caused by Schistosoma and occurs in 54 countries, mainly in South America, the Caribbean region, Africa and the eastern Mediterranean. Currently, 5 to 6 million Brazilian people are infected and 30,000 are under infection risk. Typical of poor regions, this disease is associated with the lack of basic sanitation and very frequently to the use of contaminated water in agriculture, housework and leisure. One of the most efficient methods of controlling the disease is application of molluscicides to eliminate or to reduce the population of the intermediate host snail Biomphalaria glabrata. Studies on molluscicidal activity of plant extracts have been stimulated by issues such as environmental preservation, high cost and recurrent resistance of snails to synthetic molluscicides. The aim of this study was to determine the molluscicide action of extracts from Piperaceae species on adult and embryonic stages of B. glabrata. Fifteen extracts from 13 Piperaceae species were obtained from stems, leaves and roots. Toxicity of extracts was evaluated against snails at two different concentrations (500 and 100 ppm) and those causing 100% mortality at 100 ppm concentration were selected to obtain the LC90 (lethal concentration of 90% mortality). Piper aduncum, P. crassinervium, P. cuyabanum, P. diospyrifolium and P. hostmannianum gave 100% mortality of adult snails at concentrations ranging from 10 to 60 ppm. These extracts were also assayed on embryonic stages of B. glabrata and those from P. cuyabanum and P. hostmannianum showed 100% ovicidal action at 20 ppm.

Molluscicidal and ovicidal activities ofplant extracts of the Piperaceae onBiomphalaria glabrata (Say, 1818)

Schistosomiasis is a tropical disease caused by Schistosoma and occurs in 54countries, mainly in South America, the Caribbean region, Africa and the easternMediterranean. Currently, 5 to 6 million Brazilian people are infected and 30,000are under infection risk. Typical of poor regions, this disease is associated withthe lack of basic sanitation and very frequently to the use of contaminated water in agriculture, housework and leisure. One of the most efficient methods of controlling the disease is application of molluscicides to eliminate or to reduce the population of the intermediate host snail Biomphalaria glabrata. Studies on molluscicidal activity of plant extracts have been stimulated by issues such as environmental preservation, high cost and recurrent resistance of snails tosynthetic molluscicides. The aim of this study was to determine the molluscicideaction of extracts from Piperaceae species on adult and embryonic stages ofB. glabrata. Fifteen extracts from 13 Piperaceae species were obtained from stems, leaves and roots. Toxicity of extracts was evaluated against snails at two different concentrations (500 and 100ppm) and those causing 100% mortality at 100ppm concentration were selected to obtain the LC90 (lethal concentration of 90% mortality). Piper aduncum, P. crassinervium, P. cuyabanum, P. diospyrifolium and P. hostmannianum gave 100% mortality of adult snails at concentrations ranging from 10 to 60 ppm. These extracts were also assayed on embryonic stages of B. glabrata and those from P. cuyabanum and P. hostmannianum showed 100%ovicidal action at 20ppm.

Quetiapine versus clomipramine in the augmentation of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors for the treatment of obsessive-compulsive disorder: a randomized, open-label trial.

After 12 weeks of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) monotherapy with inadequate response, 10 patients received clomipramine and 11 received quetiapine as augmentation agents of the SSRI. The primary outcome measure was the difference between initial and final scores of the Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale (Y-BOCS), rated in a blinded fashion, and the score of clinical global improvement (CGI-I). Statistical analyses were performed using nonparametric tests to evaluate treatment efficacy and the difference between treatment groups. Percentile plots were constructed with YBOCS scores from the clomipramine and quetiapine groups. Considering response a >or=35% reduction in the initial Y-BOCS score plus a rating of 'much improved' or 'very much improved' on CGI-I, four of eleven quetiapine patients and one out of ten clomipramine patients were classified as responders. The mean final Y-BOCS score was significantly lower than baseline in the quetiapine augmentation group (P = 0.023), but not in the clomipramine augmentation group (P = 0.503). The difference between groups showed a trend towards significance only at week 4, the mean Y-BOCS score being lower for those receiving quetiapine (P = 0.052). A difference between groups was also observed at week 4 according to percentile plots. These results corroborate previous findings of quetiapine augmentation efficacy in obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). Clomipramine augmentation did not produce a significant reduction in Y-BOCS scores. Higher target maximum dosages might have yielded different results.

The full Bayesian significance test for mixture models: results in gene expression clustering.

Gene clustering is a useful exploratory technique to group together genes with similar expression levels under distinct cell cycle phases or distinct conditions. It helps the biologist to identify potentially meaningful relationships between genes. In this study, we propose a clustering method based on multivariate normal mixture models, where the number of clusters is predicted via sequential hypothesis tests: at each step, the method considers a mixture model of m components (m = 2 in the first step) and tests if in fact it should be m - 1. If the hypothesis is rejected, m is increased and a new test is carried out. The method continues (increasing m) until the hypothesis is accepted. The theoretical core of the method is the full Bayesian significance test, an intuitive Bayesian approach, which needs no model complexity penalization nor positive probabilities for sharp hypotheses. Numerical experiments were based on a cDNA microarray dataset consisting of expression levels of 205 genes belonging to four functional categories, for 10 distinct strains of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. To analyze the method's sensitivity to data dimension, we performed principal components analysis on the original dataset and predicted the number of classes using 2 to 10 principal components. Compared to Mclust (model-based clustering), our method shows more consistent results.

Effectiveness of muscle stretching exercises with and without laser therapy at tender points for patients with fibromyalgia.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the efficiency of a treatment composed of muscle stretching exercises, associated or not to laser therapy at tender points, for patients with fibromyalgia (FM), in view of bettering their quality of life. METHODS: Twenty FM patients were randomly assigned to two groups: one submitted to laser therapy and stretching (LSG, n=10), and the other only to stretching exercises (SG, n=10). The visual analog scale of pain (VAS) and dolorimetry at tender points were used to assess pain; life quality was evaluated by means of the Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire (FIQ) and the 36-item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36). RESULTS: After the treatment program, both in LSG and SG were detected pain reduction, higher pain threshold at tender points (all p<0.01), lower mean FIQ scores, and higher SF-36 mean scores (all p<0.05). No significant differences were found between both groups. CONCLUSION: The stretching exercises program proposed is efficient to reduce pain and painful sensibility at tender points, thus enhancing patients' quality of life. Laser therapy has not shown advantages when added to muscle stretching exercises.

Genuine Bayesian multiallelic significance test for the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium law.

Statistical tests that detect and measure deviation from the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE) have been devised but are limited when testing for deviation at multiallelic DNA loci is attempted. Here we present the full Bayesian significance test (FBST) for the HWE. This test depends neither on asymptotic results nor on the number of possible alleles for the particular locus being evaluated. The FBST is based on the computation of an evidence index in favor of the HWE hypothesis. A great deal of forensic inference based on DNA evidence assumes that the HWE is valid for the genetic loci being used. We applied the FBST to genotypes obtained at several multiallelic short tandem repeat loci during routine parentage testing; the locus Penta E exemplifies those clearly in HWE while others such as D10S1214 and D19S253 do not appear to show this.

Depressão e qualidade de vida em pacientes com fibromialgia / Depression and quality of life among patients with fibromyalgia

CONTEXTO: Fibromialgia é uma síndrome reumática caracterizada por dor musculoesquelética difusa e crônica, e sítios dolorosos específicos à palpação (tender points). Freqüentemente é associada à fadiga generalizada, distúrbios do sono, rigidez matinal, dispnéia, ansiedade, alterações no humor que podem evoluir para um quadro de depressão. Sendo assim, afeta negativamente a qualidade de vida das pessoas. No entanto, ainda não se sabe o poder de discriminação dos instrumentos de avaliação da depressão e qualidade de vida. O objetivo desse estudo foi avaliar a depressão e a qualidade de vida de pacientes com fibromialgia e avaliar o poder de discriminação de instrumentos relacionados a esses aspectos. MÉTODO: Para avaliar a qualidade de vida foram utilizados dois instrumentos: um específico, o Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire (FIQ) e outro genérico, o Medical Outcomes Study 36-item Short-Form Healthy Survey (SF-36); para avaliar a depressão, a Escala de Depressão de Beck (BDS). Participaram do estudo 40 mulheres sendo 20 com fibromialgia - Grupo teste e 20 saudáveis - Grupo controle. Os três protocolos foram aplicados aos indivíduos dos dois grupos em uma única sessão de avaliação. Toda a análise estatística foi realizada utilizando-se o teste "t" Student, com significância alfa = 0,05. RESULTADOS: Houve diferença estatisticamente significante entre os grupos controle e teste em todos os questionários (p<0,05). Os três questionários têm bom poder discriminatório para diferenciar os dois grupos, porém o FIQ é o que tem maior poder de discriminação e o BDS o menor. CONCLUSÃO: O grupo de pacientes com fibromialgia tem pior qualidade de vida quando comparado com o grupo controle. Comparando os três questionários todos são eficientes não somente para avaliar a qualidade de vida mas também para avaliar a depressão. Entretanto, como o FIQ é um instrumento específico é o que melhor discrimina o grupo teste do grupo controle, fato este mostrado...

BACKGROUND: Fibromyalgia is a rheumatic syndrome characterized by widespread chronic musculoskeletal pain and specific palpable tender points. It is often associated with generalized fatigue, sleep disturbances, morning stiffness, dyspnea, anxiety and mood disturbances that may evolve into depression. Thus, such individuals' quality of life is negatively affected. However, the discriminating power of quality-of-life and depression assessment instruments is still unknown. OBJECTIVE: To assess depression and quality of life among patients with fibromyalgia, and the discriminating power of such instruments. METHOD: Quality of life was assessed by one specific instrument, the Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire (FIQ), and another generic one, the Medical Outcomes Study 36-item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36). The Beck Depression Scale (BDS) was used to assess depression. Forty women participated: 20 with fibromyalgia (test group) and 20 healthy women (control group). The three protocols were applied to all individuals in both groups in a single evaluation session. All statistical analyses were performed using Student's t-test, with alpha = 0.05. RESULTS: Statistically significant differences between test and control groups were found via all questionnaires (p<0.05). The three questionnaires had good discriminatory power for differentiating between the two groups, but FIQ had the greatest and BDS least. CONCLUSION: Patients with fibromyalgia presented poor quality of life, compared with the control group. Comparing the three questionnaires, they were all efficient for both quality-of-life and depression assessments. However, since FIQ is a specific instrument, this gave the best discrimination between test and control groups, and this was shown through higher, statistically significant values.

Quantifying pain threshold and quality of life of fibromyalgia patients.

The most typical symptom of fibromyalgia (FM) is diffuse pain, and pain at specific points-tender points-is crucial for its diagnosis. By comparing healthy individuals and FM patients, this study was aimed at assessing pain and quality of life of Brazilian females with FM, while seeking for a correlation between pain threshold and quality of life. A total of 178 women were evaluated: 124 were FM patients and 54 were healthy women. Pain threshold at tender points was quantified by dolorimetry, and diffuse pain by means of the visual analogue scale (VAS); the Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire (FIQ) was used to evaluate quality of life. Statistical treatment of the data allowed for proposing two indexes: a pain threshold index (PT) and a quality of life one (QOL). PT is the lowest value among all pain thresholds measured at the 18 tender points; QOL is the mean of responses to the FIQ and VAS. Both indexes were tested and showed significant differences between the test and control groups. By pairing pain threshold values of each tender point in the test and control groups, it was found that the most sensitive points matched between the two groups, that is, the most sensitive anatomic spots in a healthy individual are also likely to be the most sensitive points in a person with FM. This suggests that a stimulus that provokes slight discomfort to a healthy person may produce more pain in FM patients--which may bear implications for FM clinical treatment. In this sample of Brazilian women, FM patients had both lower pain threshold and worse quality of life than healthy women.

Efeito dos exercícios de alongamento na melhora da dor, flexibilidade e qualidade de vida em pacientes com fibromialgia / The effects of stretch exercises on pain, flexibility and quality of life in patients with fibromyalgia

Fibromialgia (FM) é uma síndrome reumática caracterizada por dor musculoesquelética cr6onica e difusa assim como baixo limiar de dor em pontos anatômicos específicos chamados tender points

Meta-analysis of allograft bypass grafting to infrapopliteal arteries.

OBJECTIVE: To determine graft patency and limb preservation after allograft bypass grafting to infrapopliteal arteries for different allograft materials. DESIGN: Meta-analysis of case series that used survival analysis to describe outcomes. METHODS: Studies published from 1982 through 2003 were identified from electronic databases and pertinent original articles. Four series of cryopreserved arterial allografts, 10 series of cryopreserved vein allografts, three series of cold-storaged vein allografts, and 16 series of umbilical-cord vein allografts were included in separate random-effects meta-analyses. RESULTS: A graphical display of pooled survival curves of graft patency showed cold-storaged veins to have the best outcome in the first 4 years, followed by cryopreserved arteries, umbilical-cord veins, and cryopreserved veins. The respective 5-year pooled patency were 24, 21, 30, and 19%. For foot preservation, the best outcome was achieved with cryopreserved arteries followed by cryopreserved veins, umbilical-cord veins, and cold-storaged veins. A reference meta-analysis of polytetrafluoroethlylene grafts occupied the top position for graft patency and the second position for foot preservation. CONCLUSION: In leg revascularisation for critical ischaemia, graft patency is poor for allografts generally, but using peripheral allografts in repeat attempts at revascularisation is a valid strategy to prevent major amputation. A role for umbilical-cord vein allografts remains uncertain.

Disseminated form of an intracranial germinoma: report of one case

The authors report a case of a suprasellar germinoma with a diffusely involvement of the ventricular system. The proper diagnostic and therapeutic procedures for the management of this lesion are also discussed.

Cytogenetic study on individuals occupationally exposed to DDT

Workers from three insecticide plants in direct contact with 2,2-bis (â-chloro-phenyl)-1,1,1,-trichloroethane (DDT) did not differ significantly in the frequencies of cells with chromosomal aberrations when compared with controls from the same plants but not in direct contact with the drug. The same was true when a group of workers from one plant was compared with a control group from the Institute Butantan, with no history of occupational exposure to DDT. Yet, when the control group from one of the three plants, which showed high DDT plasmic levels, was added to the group in direct contact with the insecticide, the frequency of cells with chromatid aberrations was significantly higher, suggesting that DDT causes chromatid lesions. A positive correlation was found between DDT levels and times of exposure, but being in direct or indirect contact with DDT was not always correlated with the degree of contamination.