Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) indicators as predictors of mortality among patients hospitalised with COVID-19 disease in the Lothian Region, Scotland during the first wave: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Sars-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19, has led to more than 226,000 deaths in the UK and multiple risk factors for mortality including age, sex and deprivation have been identified. This study aimed to identify which individual indicators of the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD), an area-based deprivation index, were predictive of mortality. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study of anonymised electronic health records of 710 consecutive patients hospitalised with Covid-19 disease between March and June 2020 in the Lothian Region of Southeast Scotland. Data sources included automatically extracted data from national electronic platforms and manually extracted data from individual admission records. Exposure variables of interest were SIMD quintiles and 12 indicators of deprivation deemed clinically relevant selected from the SIMD. Our primary outcome was mortality. Age and sex adjusted univariable and multivariable analyses were used to determine measures of association between exposures of interest and the primary outcome. RESULTS: After adjusting for age and sex, we found an increased risk of mortality in the more deprived SIMD quintiles 1 and 3 (OR 1.75, CI 0.99-3.08, p = 0.053 and OR 2.17, CI 1.22-3.86, p = 0.009, respectively), but this association was not upheld in our multivariable model containing age, sex, Performance Status and clinical parameters of severity at admission. Of the 12 pre-selected indicators of deprivation, two were associated with greater mortality in our multivariable analysis: income deprivation rate categorised by quartile (Q4 (most deprived): 2.11 (1.20-3.77) p = 0.011)) and greater than expected hospitalisations due to alcohol per SIMD data zone (1.96 (1.28-3.00) p = 0.002)). CONCLUSIONS: SIMD as an aggregate measure of deprivation was not predictive of mortality in our cohort when other exposure measures were accounted for. However, we identified a two-fold increased risk of mortality in patients residing in areas with greater income-deprivation and/or number of hospitalisations due to alcohol. In areas where aggregate measures fail to capture pockets of deprivation, exploring the impact of specific SIMD indicators may be helpful in targeting resources to residents at risk of poorer outcomes from Covid-19.

Distinctive hospital and community resistomes in Scottish urban wastewater: Metagenomics of a paired wastewater sampling design.

The wastewater microbiome contains a multitude of resistant bacteria of human origin, presenting an opportunity for surveillance of resistance in the general population. However, wastewater microbial communities are also influenced by clinical sources, such as hospitals. Identifying signatures of the community and hospital resistome in wastewater is needed for interpretation and risk analysis. In this study, we compare the resistome and microbiome of hospital, community, and mixed municipal wastewater to investigate how and why the composition of these different sites differ. We conducted shotgun metagenomic analysis on wastewater samples from eight wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), four hospitals, and four community sites in Scotland, using a paired sampling design. Cluster analysis and source attribution random forest models demonstrated that the hospital resistome was distinct from community and WWTP resistomes. Hospital wastewater had a higher abundance and diversity of resistance genes, in keeping with evidence that hospitals act as a reservoir and enricher of resistance. However, this distinctive 'hospital' signature appeared to be weak in the resistome of downstream WWTPs, likely due to dilution. We conclude that hospital and community wastewater resistomes differ, with the hospital wastewater representing a reservoir of patient- and hospital environment-associated bacteria. However, this 'hospital' signature is transient and does not overwhelm the community signature in the resistome of the downstream WWTP influent.

Risk factors for antimicrobial resistance in patients with Escherichia coli bacteraemia related to urinary tract infection.

Introduction: NHS Lothian policy has recently changed to avoid first-line use of trimethoprim for uncomplicated urinary tract infections (UTI) in patients with risk factors for trimethoprim resistance, in line with national guidance. This study aimed to identify risk factors for antimicrobial resistance in Escherichia coli bacteraemia related to UTI. Methods: A retrospective cohort study of 687 patients with E. coli bacteraemia related to UTI in NHS Lothian from 01/02/18 to 29/02/20 was undertaken. Demographics and comorbidities were collected from electronic patient records. Community prescribing and microbiology data were collected from the prescribing information system and Apex. Univariate and multivariate analysis was undertaken using RStudio to analyse trimethoprim, gentamicin and multi-drug resistance (MDR). Results: Trimethoprim resistance was present in 282/687(41%) of blood culture isolates. MDR was present in 278/687(40.5%) isolates. Previous urinary trimethoprim resistant E. coli was a significant risk factor for both trimethoprim resistance (OR 9.44, 95%CI 5.83-15.9) and MDR (OR 4.81, 95%CI 3.17-7.43) on multivariate modelling. Trimethoprim prescription (OR 2.10, 95% CI 1.33-3.34) and the number of community antibiotic courses (OR 1.19, 95%CI 1.06-1.35) were additional risk factors for trimethoprim resistance. Multiple independent risk factors were also identified for trimethoprim resistance, MDR and gentamicin resistance. Discussion: This study showed a high prevalence of trimethoprim resistance and MDR in patients with E. coli bacteraemia related to UTI. This supports the withdrawal of trimethoprim from first-line treatment of UTIs in patients with risk factors for trimethoprim resistance. It has also identified risk factors for MDR in E. coli bacteraemia.

Performance status: A key factor in predicting mortality in the first wave of COVID-19 in South-East Scotland.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 mortality risk factors have been established in large cohort studies; long-term mortality outcomes are less documented. METHODS: We performed multivariable logistic regression to identify factors associated with in-patient mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission in symptomatic COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals in South-East Scotland from 1st March to 30th June 2020. One-year mortality was reviewed. RESULTS: Of 726 patients (median age 72; interquartile range: 58-83 years, 55% male), 104 (14%) required ICU admission and 199 (27%) died in hospital. A further 64 died between discharge and 30th June 2021 (36% overall 1-year mortality). Stepwise logistic regression identified age >79 (odds ratio (OR), 4.77 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.96-12.75)), male sex (OR, 1.83 (95% CI, 1.21-2.80)) and higher European Cooperative Oncology Group/World Health Organization performance status as associated with higher mortality risk. DISCUSSION: Poor functional baseline was the predominant independent risk factor for mortality in COVID-19. More than one-third of individuals had died by 1 year following admission.

HIV testing in secondary care: a multicentre longitudinal mixed methods electronic survey of non-HIV specialist hospital physicians in South-East Scotland and Northern England.

BACKGROUND: Increasing the uptake of HIV testing in people who may have undiagnosed HIV is essential to reduce the morbidity associated with late HIV diagnosis. METHODS: We conducted a multicentre, longitudinal, mixed-methods study, surveying the attitudes, knowledge and practice of non-HIV specialist hospital physicians in South-East Scotland and North-East England with respect to HIV testing. RESULTS: We found that although awareness of indications for HIV testing had improved over time, only 13% of clinicians recognised all of the surveyed HIV indicator conditions. Physicians were better at recognising the indicator conditions relevant to their specialty. The perception of working with a low-risk patient population was the most frequently cited barrier to offering an HIV test. Only a third of study respondents had requested more than 10 HIV tests in the preceding year. CONCLUSIONS: Our study supports a need for targeted and sustained educational initiatives to increase rates of HIV testing in secondary care.

Secrets of the Hospital Underbelly: Patterns of Abundance of Antimicrobial Resistance Genes in Hospital Wastewater Vary by Specific Antimicrobial and Bacterial Family.

Background: Hospital wastewater is a major source of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) outflow into the environment. This study uses metagenomics to study how hospital clinical activity impacts antimicrobial resistance genes (ARGs) abundances in hospital wastewater. Methods: Sewage was collected over a 24-h period from multiple wastewater collection points (CPs) representing different specialties within a tertiary hospital site and simultaneously from community sewage works. High throughput shotgun sequencing was performed using Illumina HiSeq4000. ARG abundances were correlated to hospital antimicrobial usage (AMU), data on clinical activity and resistance prevalence in clinical isolates. Results: Microbiota and ARG composition varied between CPs and overall ARG abundance was higher in hospital wastewater than in community influent. ARG and microbiota compositions were correlated (Procrustes analysis, p=0.014). Total antimicrobial usage was not associated with higher ARG abundance in wastewater. However, there was a small positive association between resistance genes and antimicrobial usage matched to ARG phenotype (IRR 1.11, CI 1.06-1.16, p<0.001). Furthermore, analyzing carbapenem and vancomycin resistance separately indicated that counts of ARGs to these antimicrobials were positively associated with their increased usage [carbapenem rate ratio (RR) 1.91, 95% CI 1.01-3.72, p=0.07, and vancomycin RR 10.25, CI 2.32-49.10, p<0.01]. Overall, ARG abundance within hospital wastewater did not reflect resistance patterns in clinical isolates from concurrent hospital inpatients. However, for clinical isolates of the family Enterococcaceae and Staphylococcaceae, there was a positive relationship with wastewater ARG abundance [odds ratio (OR) 1.62, CI 1.33-2.00, p<0.001, and OR 1.65, CI 1.21-2.30, p=0.006 respectively]. Conclusion: We found that the relationship between hospital wastewater ARGs and antimicrobial usage or clinical isolate resistance varies by specific antimicrobial and bacterial family studied. One explanation, we consider is that relationships observed from multiple departments within a single hospital site will be detectable only for ARGs against parenteral antimicrobials uniquely used in the hospital setting. Our work highlights that using metagenomics to identify the full range of ARGs in hospital wastewater is a useful surveillance tool to monitor hospital ARG carriage and outflow and guide environmental policy on AMR.

Segmentation and shielding of the most vulnerable members of the population as elements of an exit strategy from COVID-19 lockdown.

This study demonstrates that an adoption of a segmenting and shielding strategy could increase the scope to partially exit COVID-19 lockdown while limiting the risk of an overwhelming second wave of infection. We illustrate this using a mathematical model that segments the vulnerable population and their closest contacts, the 'shielders'. Effects of extending the duration of lockdown and faster or slower transition to post-lockdown conditions and, most importantly, the trade-off between increased protection of the vulnerable segment and fewer restrictions on the general population are explored. Our study shows that the most important determinants of outcome are: (i) post-lockdown transmission rates within the general and between the general and vulnerable segments; (ii) fractions of the population in the vulnerable and shielder segments; (iii) adherence to protective measures; and (iv) build-up of population immunity. Additionally, we found that effective measures in the shielder segment, e.g. intensive routine screening, allow further relaxations in the general population. We find that the outcome of any future policy is strongly influenced by the contact matrix between segments and the relationships between physical distancing measures and transmission rates. This strategy has potential applications for any infectious disease for which there are defined proportions of the population who cannot be treated or who are at risk of severe outcomes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.

Diagnostic performance of the combined nasal and throat swab in patients admitted to hospital with suspected COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Accurate diagnosis in patients with suspected coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is essential to guide treatment and limit spread of the virus. The combined nasal and throat swab is used widely, but its diagnostic performance is uncertain. METHODS: In a prospective, multi-centre, cohort study conducted in secondary and tertiary care hospitals in Scotland, we evaluated the combined nasal and throat swab with reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) in consecutive patients admitted to hospital with suspected COVID-19. Diagnostic performance of the index and serial tests was evaluated for a primary outcome of confirmed or probable COVID-19, and a secondary outcome of confirmed COVID-19 on serial testing. The diagnosis was adjudicated by a panel, who recorded clinical, laboratory and radiological features blinded to the test results. RESULTS: We enrolled 1368 consecutive patients (median age 68 [interquartile range, IQR 53-80] years, 47% women) who underwent a total of 3822 tests (median 2 [IQR 1-3] tests per patient). The primary outcome occurred in 36% (496/1368), of whom 65% (323/496) and 35% (173/496) had confirmed and probable COVID-19, respectively. The index test was positive in 255/496 (51%) patients with the primary outcome, giving a sensitivity and specificity of 51.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] 48.8 to 54.1%) and 99.5% (95% CI 99.0 to 99.8%). Sensitivity increased in those undergoing 2, 3 or 4 tests to 60.1% (95% CI 56.7 to 63.4%), 68.3% (95% CI 64.0 to 72.3%) and 77.6% (95% CI 72.7 to 81.9%), respectively. The sensitivity of the index test was 78.9% (95% CI 74.4 to 83.2%) for the secondary outcome of confirmed COVID-19 on serial testing. CONCLUSIONS: In patients admitted to hospital, a single combined nasal and throat swab with RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 has excellent specificity, but limited diagnostic sensitivity for COVID-19. Diagnostic performance is significantly improved by repeated testing.

Risk factors for carbapenemase-producing organisms among inpatients in Scotland: A national matched case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine risk factors for carbapenemase-producing organisms (CPOs) and to determine the prognostic impact of CPOs. DESIGN: A retrospective matched case-control study. PATIENTS: Inpatients across Scotland in 2010-2016 were included. Patients with a CPO were matched with 2 control groups by hospital, admission date, specimen type, and bacteria. One group comprised patients either infected or colonized with a non-CPO and the other group were general inpatients. METHODS: Conditional logistic regression models were used to identify risk factors for CPO infection and colonization, respectively. Mortality rates and length of postisolation hospitalization were compared between CPO and non-CPO patients. RESULTS: In total, 70 CPO infection cases (with 210 general inpatient controls and 121 non-CPO controls) and 34 CPO colonization cases (with 102 general inpatient controls and 60 non-CPO controls) were identified. Risk factors for CPO infection versus general inpatients were prior hospital stay (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 4.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.52-10.78; P = .005), longer hospitalization (aOR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.04-1.10; P < .001), longer intensive care unit (ICU) stay (aOR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.01-1.98; P = .045), and immunodeficiency (aOR, 3.68; 95% CI, 1.16-11.66; P = .027). Risk factors for CPO colonization were prior high-dependency unit (HDU) stay (aOR, 11.46; 95% CI, 1.27-103.09; P = .030) and endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic (ENM) diseases (aOR, 3.41; 95% CI, 1.02-11.33; P = .046). Risk factors for CPO infection versus non-CPO infection were prolonged hospitalization (aOR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.00-1.03; P = .038) and HDU stay (aOR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.02-1.26; P = .024). No differences in mortality rates were detected between CPO and non-CPO patients. CPO infection was associated with longer hospital stay than non-CPO infection (P = .041). CONCLUSIONS: A history of (prolonged) hospitalization, prolonged ICU or HDU stay; ENM diseases; and being immunocompromised increased risk for CPO. CPO infection was not associated with increased mortality but was associated with prolonged hospital stay.

How youth mentoring relationships end and why it matters: a mixed-methods, multi-informant study.

Scant empirical attention has been devoted to understanding endings in youth mentoring relationships, despite the frequency with which they occur. This study examined data from a mixed-methods study of mentoring relationship endings in which youth mentees, the youth's parents or guardians, mentors, and program staff were surveyed about the closure process, and a subsample of program staff, mentors, and parents or guardians also participated in in-depth qualitative interviews. Findings from a descriptive analysis detailing the perceptions of multiple stakeholders in the closure process as reported in surveys are presented along with case studies derived from a case-based analysis of in-depth qualitative interview data. Most relationship endings were initiated by the mentors, and although some matches engaged in an intentional and direct closure process, more often the endings were unclear or even confusing to program participants. Implications for practice are discussed, including recommendations for more training and greater involvement of program staff in the closure process, as are implications for future research.

'The Mould that Changed the World': Quantitative and qualitative evaluation of children's knowledge and motivation for behavioural change following participation in an antimicrobial resistance musical.

BACKGROUND: A primary school musical ("The Mould that Changed the World") was developed as a unique public engagement strategy to combat antimicrobial resistance (AMR) by engaging children in the story of the discovery of antibiotics, the risks of drug-resistant infections and the importance of prudent antibiotic use. METHODS: The musical intervention was implemented in two UK primary schools by music specialists through a series of workshops, associated learning resources and performances to relatives. Participating children (n = 182), aged 9 to 11 years, were given an online questionnaire in the classroom before rehearsals began and at two weeks post-performance with a six-month evaluation in one school. The impact of the musical was analysed using generalised linear models to control for confounding factors. For the qualitative evaluation, fifteen participating children were selected randomly from each school to take part in semi-structured focus groups (n = 5 per group) before rehearsals began and two weeks post-performance. FINDINGS: Knowledge gain was demonstrated with children being more likely to answer questions on key messages of the musical correctly at two weeks post- performance (response rate 88%, n = 161) compared with the pre-rehearsal questionnaire (response rate 99%, n = 180) (bacteria can become resistant to antibiotics OR 4.63, C.I. 2.46-9.31 p<0.0001, antibiotic resistant infections can be life threatening OR 3.26 C.I. 1.75-6.32 p = 0.0001, prudent use of antibiotics will slow the rise of antibiotic resistant infections OR 2.16, C.I. 1.39-3.38, p = 0.0006). Long term knowledge gain was demonstrated by a consistent level of correct answers on key messages between two weeks (response rate 95%, n = 89) and 6 months post musical (response rate 71%, n = 67). Following the musical children participating in the focus groups (n = 30) articulated a greater understanding of AMR and the risks of antibiotic overuse. They discussed motivation to minimise personal antibiotic use and influence attitudes to antibiotics in their family and friends. INTERPRETATION: This study demonstrates that musical theatre can improve both short and long-term knowledge. It demonstrates a hitherto infrequently reported change in attitude and motivation to change behaviour in children at an influential age for health beliefs. This unique public health tool has the potential for high impact particularly if rolled out within national education programmes for primary school aged children.

Staff and patient perceptions of a community urinary catheter service.

INTRODUCTION: Urinary catheters are used extensively throughout healthcare for various reasons including management of urinary tract dysfunction. The purpose of this study was to simultaneously explore both catheter user experience and staff perception of catheter services within community urinary catheter care. METHODS: A questionnaire was conducted to investigate the views of community nursing staff. During the same time period, patients were interviewed about i) catheter-care standards and adherence to guidelines ii) patients' feelings towards their catheter and iii) potential improvements to catheter practices and design. RESULTS: Sixty-nine staff were surveyed. Although 97% of staff indicated they used local guidelines, in up to 62% of cases findings suggested practices in sending urine samples for culture did not comply with guidelines. Seventy-five percent of staff were satisfied with catheter care, but weaknesses were identified in handover processes, communication between staff and patients, and excessive documentation. Staff results were compared with the findings from interviews of 29 long-term urinary catheter users, demonstrating a higher level of satisfaction with catheter care amongst patients (86%). Patients and staff agreed that generally the impacts of their catheter on personal hygiene, sense of independence, sense of dignity and of patient happiness, were neutral (neither positive nor negative). However, regarding improvements to catheter practices and catheter design; 73% of staff but only 45% of patients suggested improvements in service, while 76% of patients but only 49% of staff suggested improvement in design. CONCLUSION: The study reveals general satisfaction with community catheter care, but indicates areas of potential improvements regarding communication, documentation and catheter design. When compared to patient responses, staff overall had a less positive view of patients perception of their relationship with their catheter.

Pig Exposure and Health Outcomes in Hospitalized Infectious Disease Patients in Vietnam.

Many infectious diseases have a zoonotic origin, and several have had major public health implications. Contact with animals is a known risk factor for zoonotic infections, although there are limited data on disease symptoms and pathogens associated with contact with different animal species. The rise in pig production in Southeast Asia has contributed to the emergence and re-emergence of zoonotic infections caused by contact with pigs and pig products. To compare the symptom and pathogen profiles of hospitalized patients with and without pig contact, we collected data on disease symptoms, infecting pathogens, and animal contact behaviour from patients attending six hospitals across Vietnam between 2012 and 2016. Patients who had previous contact with pigs were more likely to have enteric disease than respiratory or central nervous system infections and were more likely to grow Escherichia coli and Shigella from stool culture than those without pig contact. Patients with enteric infections who kept pigs were also more likely to have a disease of unknown origin. Public health initiatives that account for differences in animal contact behaviours and offer more comprehensive diagnostics in high-risk individuals are needed if emergence and re-emergence of zoonotic disease is to be monitored and prevented.

Successful reintroduction of tumour necrosis factor-alpha inhibition after treatment of disseminated Lyme borreliosis.

The importance of tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) in the human immune response to Borrelia burgdorferi is uncertain. Murine models suggest a critical role, including spirochaete reactivation following TNF-α inhibition. Our case, combined with a review of the clinical and scientific literature, provides reassurance that TNF-α inhibition can be safely reinstituted after treatment of disseminated borreliosis with standard duration antimicrobial chemotherapy.

A phase I trial of ANG1/2-Tie2 inhibitor trebaninib (AMG386) and temsirolimus in advanced solid tumors (PJC008/NCI♯9041).

BACKGROUND: There is crosstalk between the ANG-Tie2 and the PI3K/Akt/mTOR pathways. Combined ANG1/2 and mTOR blockade may have additive anti-cancer activity. The combination of trebananib, an inhibitor of ANG1/2-Tie2 interaction, with temsirolimus was evaluated in patients with advanced solid tumors to determine tolerability, maximum tolerated dose (MTD), and preliminary antitumor activity. METHODS: Patients were enrolled using 3 + 3 design, and were given intravenous trebananib and temsirolimus on Day 1, 8, 15 and 22 of a 28-day cycle. Dose limiting toxicities (DLTs) were evaluated during cycle 1. Peripheral blood was collected for evaluation of Tie2-expressing monocytes (TEMs) and thymidine phosphorylase (TP). Sparse pharmacokinetic (PK) sampling for trebananib drug levels was performed on Day 1 and 8 of cycle 2. RESULTS: Twenty-one patients were enrolled, 6 at dose level (DL) 1, 7 at DL -1, and 8 at DL -2. No effect of temsirolimus on trebananib PK was observed. The most common treatment-related adverse events (AEs) were: fatigue (81 %), edema (62 %), anorexia (57 %), nausea (52 %), rash (43 %) and mucositis (43 %). The most common grade ≥ 3 AEs included lymphopenia (28 %) and fatigue (28 %). The MTD was exceeded at DL-2. Of 18 response evaluable patients, 1 partial response was observed (ER+/HER2-/PIK3CA mutant breast cancer) and 4 patients had prolonged SD ≥ 24 weeks. No correlation with clinical benefit was observed with change in number TEMs or TP expression in TEMs with treatment. CONCLUSIONS: The MTD was exceeded at trebananib 10 mg/kg weekly and temsirolimus 20 mg weekly, with frequent overlapping toxicities including fatigue, edema, and anorexia.

Arsenic, antimony, and Leishmania: has arsenic contamination of drinking water in India led to treatment- resistant kala-azar?

BACKGROUND: In Bihar state, India, the cure rate of antimonial compounds (eg, sodium stibogluconate) in the treatment of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has fallen from more than 85% to less than 50%. This reduction has been attributed to long-term, widespread misuse of antimonial drugs within the Indian private health-care system. We aimed to test the hypothesis that exposure to arsenic in drinking water in this region has resulted in antimony-resistant Leishmania parasites. METHODS: L donovani parasites were serially passaged in mice exposed to environmentally relevant concentrations of arsenic in drinking water. Arsenic concentrations in murine organs were quantified and the sensitivity of L donovani to sodium stibogluconate assessed at each passage. A retrospective field study on a cohort of antimony-treated patients with VL was performed in an arsenic-contaminated area of Bihar to assess risk of treatment failure and death in people exposed to arsenic. FINDINGS: Arsenic accumulation in organs of exposed mice was proportional to exposure level. After five passages, isolated parasites were refractory to sodium stibogluconate in in-vitro drug sensitivity assays. Treatment of arsenic exposed, infected mice with this drug confirmed that these parasites retained resistance in vivo. In the field work study, 110 patients with VL treated with sodium stibogluconate, failure rate was 59%. Patients using well water with high mean arsenic concentrations had a higher risk of treatment failure than patients using wells with arsenic levels of less than 10 µg/L (odds ratio 1·78, 95% CI 0·7-4·6, p=0·23). 21 patients died, 16 directly as a result of their disease. Mean arsenic concentrations of more than 10 µg/L increased the risk of all-cause and VL-related mortality (hazard ratio 3·27, 95% CI 1·4-8·1, and 2·65, 0·96-7·65, respectively). INTERPRETATION: These data suggest that arsenic contamination might have contributed to the development of antimonial resistance in Leishmania parasites in Bihar. Our epidemiological study was underpowered and retrospective in nature, so firm conclusions cannot be made. Further research into the associations between arsenic exposure and antimonial treatment failure and death in the leishmaniases is warranted. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust.

Arsenic exposure and outcomes of antimonial treatment in visceral leishmaniasis patients in Bihar, India: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In the late twentieth century, emergence of high rates of treatment failure with antimonial compounds (SSG) for visceral leishmaniasis (VL) caused a public health crisis in Bihar, India. We hypothesize that exposure to arsenic through drinking contaminated groundwater may be associated with SSG treatment failure due to the development of antimony-resistant parasites. METHODS: A retrospective cohort design was employed, as antimony treatment is no longer in routine use. The study was performed on patients treated with SSG between 2006 and 2010. Outcomes of treatment were assessed through a field questionnaire and treatment failure used as a proxy for parasite resistance. Arsenic exposure was quantified through analysis of 5 water samples from within and surrounding the patient's home. A logistic regression model was used to evaluate the association between arsenic exposure and treatment failure. In a secondary analysis survival curves and Cox regression models were applied to assess the risk of mortality in VL patients exposed to arsenic. RESULTS: One hundred and ten VL patients treated with SSG were analysed. The failure rate with SSG was 59%. Patients with high mean local arsenic level had a non-statistically significant higher risk of treatment failure (OR = 1.78, 95% CI: 0.7-4.6, p = 0.23) than patients using wells with arsenic concentration <10 µg/L. Twenty one patients died in our cohort, 16 directly as a result of VL. Arsenic levels ≥ 10 µg/L increased the risk of all-cause (HR 3.27; 95% CI: 1.4-8.1) and VL related (HR 2.65; 95% CI: 0.96-7.65) deaths. This was time dependent: 3 months post VL symptom development, elevated risks of all-cause mortality (HR 8.56; 95% CI: 2.5-29.1) and of VL related mortality (HR 9.27; 95% CI: 1.8-49.0) were detected. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION: This study indicates a trend towards increased treatment failure in arsenic exposed patients. The limitations of the retrospective study design may have masked a strong association between arsenic exposure and selection for antimonial resistance in the field. The unanticipated strong correlation between arsenic exposure and VL mortality warrants further investigation.

Chronic exposure to arsenic in drinking water can lead to resistance to antimonial drugs in a mouse model of visceral leishmaniasis.

The Indian subcontinent is the only region where arsenic contamination of drinking water coexists with widespread resistance to antimonial drugs that are used to treat the parasitic disease visceral leishmaniasis. We have previously proposed that selection for parasite resistance within visceral leishmaniasis patients who have been exposed to trivalent arsenic results in cross-resistance to the related metalloid antimony, present in the pentavalent state as a complex in drugs such as sodium stibogluconate (Pentostam) and meglumine antimonate (Glucantime). To test this hypothesis, Leishmania donovani was serially passaged in mice exposed to arsenic in drinking water at environmentally relevant levels (10 or 100 ppm). Arsenic accumulation in organs and other tissues was proportional to the level of exposure and similar to that previously reported in human liver biopsies. After five monthly passages in mice exposed to arsenic, isolated parasites were found to be completely refractory to 500 µg · mL(-1) Pentostam compared with the control passage group (38.5 µg · mL(-1)) cultured in vitro in mouse peritoneal macrophages. Reassessment of resistant parasites following further passage for 4 mo in mice without arsenic exposure showed that resistance was stable. Treatment of infected mice with Pentostam confirmed that resistance observed in vitro also occurred in vivo. We conclude that arsenic contamination may have played a significant role in the development of Leishmania antimonial resistance in Bihar because inadequate treatment with antimonial drugs is not exclusive to India, whereas widespread antimonial resistance is.