A dynamically structured matrix population model for insect life histories observed under variable environmental conditions.

Various environmental drivers influence life processes of insect vectors that transmit human disease. Life histories observed under experimental conditions can reveal such complex links; however, designing informative experiments for insects is challenging. Furthermore, inferences obtained under controlled conditions often extrapolate poorly to field conditions. Here, we introduce a pseudo-stage-structured population dynamics model to describe insect development as a renewal process with variable rates. The model permits representing realistic life stage durations under constant and variable environmental conditions. Using the model, we demonstrate how random environmental variations result in fluctuating development rates and affect stage duration. We apply the model to infer environmental dependencies from the life history observations of two common disease vectors, the southern (Culex quinquefasciatus) and northern (Culex pipiens) house mosquito. We identify photoperiod, in addition to temperature, as pivotal in regulating larva stage duration, and find that carefully timed life history observations under semi-field conditions accurately predict insect development throughout the year. The approach we describe augments existing methods of life table design and analysis, and contributes to the development of large-scale climate- and environment-driven population dynamics models for important disease vectors.

Seasonality and timing of peak abundance of Aedes albopictus in Europe: Implications to public and animal health.

Aedes albopictus is a known vector of dengue and chikungunya. Understanding the population dynamics characteristics of vector species is of pivotal importance to optimise surveillance and control activities, to estimate risk for pathogen-transmission, and thus to enhance support of public health decisions. In this paper we used a seasonal activity model to simulate the start (spring hatching) and end (autumn diapause) of the vector season. In parallel, the peak abundance of the species was assessed using both VectorNet field survey data complemented with field studies obtained from literature across the Mediterranean Basin. Our results suggest that spring hatching of eggs in the current distribution area can start at the beginning of March in southern Europe and in April in western Europe. In northern Europe, where the species is not (yet) present, spring hatching would occur from late April to late May. Aedes albopictus can remain active up to 41 weeks in southern Europe whilst the climatic conditions in northern Europe are limiting its potential activity to a maximum of 23 weeks. The peak of egg density is found during summer months from end of July until end of September. During these two months the climatic conditions for species development are optimal, which implies a higher risk for arbovirus transmission by Ae. albopictus and occurrence of epidemics.

Human West Nile Meningo-Encephalitis in a Highly Endemic Country: A Complex Epidemiological Analysis on Biotic and Abiotic Risk Factors.

West Nile virus (WNV) is one of the most prevalent mosquito-borne viruses. Although the infection in humans is mostly asymptomatic, 15-20% of cases show flu-like symptoms with fever. In 1% of infections, humans develop severe nervous symptoms and even die, a condition known as West Nile neuroinvasive disease (WNND). The aim of our study was to analyze the influence of abiotic and biotic factors with the human WNND cases during the period 2015-2019. A database containing all the localities in Romania was developed. Abiotic and biotic predictors were included for each locality: geographic variables, climatic data, and biotic factors. Spatial distribution of the WNND infections was analyzed using directional distribution (DD). The Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was employed to assess the strength of association between the WNND infections and predictors. A model was generated using the random forest ensemble learning method. A total number of 535 human WNND cases were confirmed in 308 localities. The DD showed a south-eastern geographical distribution. Weak correlation was observed between the number of human WNND cases for each year and the predictors. The highest predicted probability was around urbanized patches in the south and southeast. Increased surveillance and control measures of vectors in risk areas should be implemented and educational campaigns should be made available for the general public in order to raise awareness of the disease and inform the population about prophylactic measures.

Assessment of climate change impact on the malaria vector Anopheles hyrcanus, West Nile disease, and incidence of melanoma in the Vojvodina Province (Serbia) using data from a regional climate model.

Motivated by the One Health paradigm, we found the expected changes in temperature and UV radiation (UVR) to be a common trigger for enhancing the risk that viruses, vectors, and diseases pose to human and animal health. We compared data from the mosquito field collections and medical studies with regional climate model projections to examine the impact of climate change on the spreading of one malaria vector, the circulation of West Nile virus (WNV), and the incidence of melanoma. We analysed data obtained from ten selected years of standardised mosquito vector sampling with 219 unique location-year combinations, and 10 years of melanoma incidence. Trends in the observed data were compared to the climatic variables obtained by the coupled regional Eta Belgrade University and Princeton Ocean Model for the period 1961-2015 using the A1B scenario, and the expected changes up to 2030 were presented. Spreading and relative abundance of Anopheles hyrcanus was positively correlated with the trend of the mean annual temperature. We anticipated a nearly twofold increase in the number of invaded sites up to 2030. The frequency of WNV detections in Culex pipiens was significantly correlated to overwintering temperature averages and seasonal relative humidity at the sampling sites. Regression model projects a twofold increase in the incidence of WNV positive Cx. pipiens for a rise of 0.5°C in overwintering TOctober-April temperatures. The projected increase of 56% in the number of days with Tmax ≥ 30°C (Hot Days-HD) and UVR doses (up to 1.2%) corresponds to an increasing trend in melanoma incidence. Simulations of the Pannonian countries climate anticipate warmer and drier conditions with possible dominance of temperature and number of HD over other ecological factors. These signal the importance of monitoring the changes to the preparedness of mitigating the risk of vector-borne diseases and melanoma.

West Nile virus 'circulation' in Vojvodina, Serbia: Mosquito, bird, horse and human surveillance.

Efforts to detect West Nile virus (WNV) in the Vojvodina province, northern Serbia, commenced with human and mosquito surveillance in 2005, followed by horse (2009) and wild bird (2012) surveillance. The knowledge obtained regarding WNV circulation, combined with the need for timely detection of virus activity and risk assessment resulted in the implementation of a national surveillance programme integrating mosquito, horse and bird surveillance in 2014. From 2013, the system showed highly satisfactory results in terms of area specificity (the capacity to indicate the spatial distribution of the risk for human cases of West Nile neuroinvasive disease - WNND) and sensitivity to detect virus circulation even at the enzootic level. A small number (n = 50) of Culex pipiens (pipiens and molestus biotypes, and their hybrids) females analysed per trap/night, combined with a high number of specimens in the sample, provided variable results in the early detection capacity at different administrative levels (NUTS2 versus NUTS3). The clustering of infected mosquitoes, horses, birds and human cases of WNND in 2014-2015 was highly significant, following the south-west to north-east direction in Vojvodina (NUTS2 administrative level). Human WNND cases grouped closest with infected mosquitoes in 2014, and with wild birds/mosquitoes in 2015. In 2014, sentinel horses showed better spatial correspondence with human WNND cases than sentinel chickens. Strong correlations were observed between the vector index values and the incidence of human WNND cases recorded at the NUTS2 and NUTS3 levels. From 2010, West Nile virus was detected in mosquitoes sampled at 43 different trap stations across Vojvodina. At 14 stations (32.56%), WNV was detected in two different (consecutive or alternate) years, at 2 stations in 3 different years, and in 1 station during 5 different years. Based on these results, integrated surveillance will be progressively improved to allow evidence-based adoption of preventive public health and mosquito control measures.