Sample size considerations for single-arm clinical trials with time-to-event endpoint using the gamma distribution.

Background: Time-to-event (TTE) endpoints are evaluated as the primary endpoint in single-arm clinical trials; however, limited options are available in statistical software for sample size calculation. In single-arm trials with TTE endpoints, the non-parametric log-rank test is commonly used. Parametric options for single-arm design assume survival times follow exponential distribution or Weibull distribution. Methods: The exponential- or Weibull-distributed survival time assumption does not always reflect hazard pattern of real-life diseases. We therefore propose gamma distribution as an alternative parametric option for designing single-arm studies with TTE endpoints. We outline a sample size calculation approach using gamma distribution with a known shape parameter and explain how to extract the gamma shape estimate from previously published resources. In addition, we conduct simulations to assess the accuracy of the extracted gamma shape parameter and to explore the impact on sample size calculation when survival time distribution is misspecified. Results: Our simulations show that if a previously published study (sample sizes ≥ 60 and censoring proportions ≤ 20 %) reported median and inter-quartile range of survival time, we can obtain a reasonably accurate gamma shape estimate, and use it to design new studies. When true survival time is Weibull-distributed, sample size calculation could be underestimated or overestimated depending on the hazard shape. Conclusions: We show how to use gamma distribution in designing a single-arm trial, thereby offering more options beyond the exponential and Weibull. We provide a simulation-based assessment to ensure an accurate estimation of the gamma shape and recommend caution to avoid misspecification of the underlying distribution.

Sample Size Reestimation in Stochastic Curtailment Tests With Time-to-Events Outcome in the Case of Nonproportional Hazards Utilizing Two Weibull Distributions With Unknown Shape Parameters.

Stochastic curtailment tests for Phase II two-arm trials with time-to-event end points are traditionally performed using the log-rank test. Recent advances in designing time-to-event trials have utilized the Weibull distribution with a known shape parameter estimated from historical studies. As sample size calculations depend on the value of this shape parameter, these methods either cannot be used or likely underperform/overperform when the natural variation around the point estimate is ignored. We demonstrate that when the magnitude of the Weibull shape parameters changes, unblinded interim information on the shape of the survival curves can be useful to enrich the final analysis for reestimation of the sample size. For such scenarios, we propose two Bayesian solutions to estimate the natural variations of the Weibull shape parameter. We implement these approaches under the framework of the newly proposed relative time method that allows nonproportional hazards and nonproportional time. We also demonstrate the sample size reestimation for the relative time method using three different approaches (internal pilot study approach, conditional power, and predictive power approach) at the interim stage of the trial. We demonstrate our methods using a hypothetical example and provide insights regarding the practical constraints for the proposed methods.

P2Y12 Inhibitors Refill Gap Predicts Death in Medicare Beneficiaries on Chronic Dialysis.

Introduction: Oral P2Y12 inhibitors (P2Y12-I) are commonly used antiplatelet drugs in patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) on chronic dialysis. Although gaps in prescription refills are quite common in patients with ESKD, it remains unclear whether P2Y12-I prescription refill patterns are associated with adverse clinical outcomes. Methods: We used the United States Renal Data System (USRDS) registry for patients with ESKD to capture new P2Y12-I prescriptions from 2011 to 2015. The primary exposure was prescription refill patterns and the primary outcome was all-cause death. Results: Among the 31,243 patients with new P2Y12-I prescription, median age was 64 years; 54% were male; and 39% were Caucasian, 37% African American, and 18% Hispanic. We observed 3 P2Y12-I refill patterns as follows: continuous users (45.1%), noncontinuous users (3.6%), and users with ≥30 days refill gap (51.4%). Prescription refill pattern with ≥30 days refill gap (vs. continuous use) was associated with all-cause death (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.13-1.23). Age and race were the most important risk factors associated with prescription refill pattern. African Americans (vs. Caucasians) were more likely to demonstrate ≥30 days refill gap, (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 1.43; 95% CI: 1.36-1.51). In addition, younger patients (vs. older) were more likely to demonstrate ≥30 day refill gap (adjusted OR/decade: 0.9; 95% CI: 0.89-0.92). Conclusion: Nonadherence to P2Y12-I prescriptions is quite common, and disproportionately affects minorities. Younger individuals with ESKD are independently associated with a higher risk of death. The odds of having a refill gap are decreasing for older patients who are more compliant than younger patients. Future studies should investigate whether phenotyping subgroups of patients with ESKD based on prescription refill patterns can help in improving adverse clinical outcomes.

Group sequential design for time-to-event outcome with non-proportional hazards using the concept of relative time utilizing two different Weibull distributions.

A group sequential design allows investigators to sequentially monitor efficacy and safety as part of interim testing in phase III trials. Literature is well developed in the case of continuous and binary outcomes, however, in case of trials with a time-to-event outcome, popular methods of sample size calculation often assume proportional hazards. In situations where the proportional hazards assumption is inappropriate as indicated by historical data, these popular methods are very restrictive. In this paper, a novel simulation-based group sequential design is proposed for a two-arm randomized phase III clinical trial with a survival endpoint for the non-proportional hazards scenario. By assuming that the survival times for each treatment arm follow two different Weibull distributions, the proposed method utilizes the concept of Relative Time to calculate the efficacy and safety boundaries at selected interim testing points. The test statistic used to generate these boundaries is asymptotically normal, allowing p-value calculation at each boundary. Many design features specific to time-to-event data can be incorporated with ease. Additionally, the proposed method allows the flexibility of having the accelerated failure time model and the proportional hazards model as constrained special cases. Real life applications are discussed demonstrating the practicality of the proposed method.

Pain and Health-Related Quality of Life in Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease: Results from a National Patient-Powered Registry.

Rationale & Objective: Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) affects health-related quality of life (HRQoL) including pain, discomfort, fatigue, emotional distress, and impaired mobility. Stakeholders prioritized kidney cyst-related pain as an important core outcome domain in clinical trials, leading to the development of disease-specific assessment tools. Study Design: The ADPKD Registry is hosted online with multiple disease-specific patient-reported outcomes modules to characterize the patient experience in the United States. Setting & Participants: The ADPKD Registry allows consented participants access to a Core Questionnaire that includes demographics, comorbid conditions, current symptoms, and kidney function. Participants complete subsequent modules on a 3-month schedule, including 2 validated HRQoL tools, the ADPKD-Pain and Discomfort Scale (ADPKD-PDS), the ADPKD Impact Scale (ADPKD-IS) and a Healthcare Access and Utilization module. Exposures: Patient-reported latest estimated glomerular filtration rate or creatinine used to calculate stage of chronic kidney disease. Outcomes: Health-related quality of life, measured using validated ADPKD-specific tools; access to polycystic kidney disease-specific health care. Analytical Approach: For the 2 HRQoL tools, scores were calculated for physical, emotional, and fatigue domains; pain severity; and pain interference (based on the licensed user manuals). Associations to health care access were also assessed. Results: By July 2022, 1,086 individuals with ADPKD completed at least 1 of the HRQoL modules, and 319 completed 4 over a year. Participants were an average age of 53. In total, 71% were women, and 91% were White, with all chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages represented. In total, 2.5% reported being treated with dialysis, and 23% had a kidney transplant. CKD stage 4/5 participants reported the most dull kidney pain, whereas sharp kidney pain was evenly distributed across early CKD stages. Dull kidney pain had an impact on sleep regardless of CKD stage. There was a strong positive correlation between the ADPKD-PDS and ADPKD-IS. Patients with a neutral or positive HRQoL were less likely to have been denied access to imaging or other care. Limitations: Currently, all the information collected is patient reported without health record validation of clinical variables. Conclusions: Use of the HRQoL tools in the ADPKD Registry provided a broad cross-sectional assessment in the United States and provided granular information on the burden of pain across the CKD spectrum in ADPKD. The ADPKD Registry allowed assessment of ADPKD impact in a community that experiences decline in health and kidney function over decades.

The Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease Registry is a longitudinal, patient-powered research tool created with the goal to better understand the impacts of ADPKD on affected individuals in the United States. Here, we analyze pain and other health-related quality of life outcomes in 1,086 individuals using validated tools and comment on the utility of these tools for future use in clinical trials and observational studies. We found that sharp pain, dull pain, fullness discomfort, and other related impacts affected individuals across the disease spectrum, although some participants reported more dull pain in later stages (CKD stages 4 and 5). Future analysis of these trends over time will be valuable in understanding how to assess and address the burden of pain in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease.

Clinical and biomarker results from a phase II trial of combined cabozantinib and durvalumab in patients with chemotherapy-refractory colorectal cancer (CRC): CAMILLA CRC cohort.

CAMILLA is a basket trial (NCT03539822) evaluating cabozantinib plus the ICI durvalumab in chemorefractory gastrointestinal cancer. Herein, are the phase II colorectal cohort results. 29 patients were evaluable. 100% had confirmed pMMR/MSS tumors. Primary endpoint was met with ORR of 27.6% (95% CI 12.7-47.2%). Secondary endpoints of 4-month PFS rate was 44.83% (95% CI 26.5-64.3%); and median OS was 9.1 months (95% CI 5.8-20.2). Grade≥3 TRAE occurred in 39%. In post-hoc analysis of patients with RAS wild type tumors, ORR was 50% and median PFS and OS were 6.3 and 21.5 months respectively. Exploratory spatial transcriptomic profiling of pretreatment tumors showed upregulation of VEGF and MET signaling, increased extracellular matrix activity and preexisting anti-tumor immune responses coexisting with immune suppressive features like T cell migration barriers in responders versus non-responders. Cabozantinib plus durvalumab demonstrated anti-tumor activity, manageable toxicity, and have led to the activation of the phase III STELLAR-303 trial.

Clinical and Biomarker Findings of Neoadjuvant Pembrolizumab and Carboplatin Plus Docetaxel in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer: NeoPACT Phase 2 Clinical Trial.

Importance: Addition of pembrolizumab to anthracycline-based chemotherapy improves pathologic complete response (pCR) and event-free survival (EFS) in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). The efficacy of anthracycline-free chemoimmunotherapy in TNBC has not been assessed. Objective: To assess the efficacy of the anthracycline-free neoadjuvant regimen of carboplatin and docetaxel plus pembrolizumab in TNBC. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was an open-label phase 2 clinical trial including a single group of patients with stage I to III TNBC enrolled at 2 sites who received neoadjuvant carboplatin and docetaxel plus pembrolizumab every 21 days for 6 cycles. Participants were enrolled from 2018 to 2022. Intervention or Exposure: Carboplatin (with an area under the free carboplatin plasma concentration vs time curve of 6) and docetaxel (75 mg/m2) plus pembrolizumab (200 mg) every 21 days for 6 cycles. Myeloid growth factor support was administered with all cycles. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary end point was pathologic complete response (pCR) defined as no evidence of invasive tumor in breast and axilla. The secondary end points were residual cancer burden, EFS, toxicity, and immune biomarkers. RNA isolated from pretreatment tumor tissue was subjected to next-generation sequencing. Specimens were classified as positive or negative for the 44-gene DNA damage immune response (DDIR) signature and for the 27-gene tumor immune microenvironment (TIM; DetermaIO) signature using predefined cutoffs. Stromal tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (sTILs) were evaluated using standard criteria. Programmed cell death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) testing was performed using a standard immunohistochemical assay. Results: Among the eligible study population of 115 female patients (median [range] age, 50 [27-70] years) who enrolled from September 2018 to January 2022, 39% had node-positive disease. pCR and residual cancer burden 0 + 1 rates were 58% (95% CI, 48%-67%) and 69% (95% CI, 60%-78%), respectively. Grade 3 or higher immune-mediated adverse events were observed in 3.5% of patients. sTILs, PD-L1, DDIR, and TIM were each predictive of pCR in multivariable analyses. The areas under curve for pCR were 0.719, 0.740, 0.699, and 0.715 for sTILs, PD-L1, DDIR, and TIM, respectively. Estimated 3-year EFS was 86% in all patients; 98% in pCR group and 68% in no-pCR group. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of the phase 2 clinical trial indicate that neoadjuvant carboplatin and docetaxel plus pembrolizumab shows encouraging pCR and 3-year EFS. The regimen was well tolerated, and immune enrichment as identified by various biomarkers was independently predictive of pCR. These results provide data on an alternative anthracycline-free chemoimmunotherapy regimen for patients who are not eligible for anthracycline-based regimens and support further evaluation of this regimen as a chemotherapy de-escalation strategy in randomized studies for TNBC. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03639948.

Stochastic curtailment tests for phase II trial with time-to-event outcome using the concept of relative time in the case of non-proportional hazards.

As part of the drug development process, interim analysis is frequently used to design efficient phase II clinical trials. A stochastic curtailment framework is often deployed wherein a decision to continue or curtail the trial is taken at each interim look based on the likelihood of observing a positive or negative treatment effect if the trial were to continue to its anticipated end. Thus, curtailment can take place due to evidence of early efficacy or futility. Traditionally, in the case of time-to-event endpoints, interim monitoring is conducted in a two-arm clinical trial using the log-rank test, often with the assumption of proportional hazards. However, when this is violated, the log-rank test may not be appropriate, resulting in loss of power and subsequently inaccurate sample sizes. In this paper, we propose stochastic curtailment methods for two-arm phase II trial with the flexibility to allow non-proportional hazards. The proposed methods are built utilizing the concept of relative time assuming that the survival times in the two treatment arms follow two different Weibull distributions. Three methods - conditional power, predictive power and Bayesian predictive probability - are discussed along with corresponding sample size calculations. The monitoring strategy is discussed with a real-life example.

Sample size reestimation and Bayesian predictive probability for single-arm clinical trials with a time-to-event endpoint using Weibull distribution with unknown shape parameter.

This manuscript consists of two topics. Firstly, we explore the utility of internal pilot study (IPS) approach for reestimating sample size at an interim stage when a reliable estimate of the nuisance shape parameter of the Weibull distribution for modeling survival data is unavailable during the planning phase of a study. Although IPS approach can help rescue the study power, it is noted that the adjusted sample size can be as much as twice the initially planned sample size, which may put substantial practical constraints to continue the study. Secondly, we discuss Bayesian predictive probability for conducting interim analyses to obtain preliminary evidence of efficacy or futility of an experimental treatment warranting early termination of a clinical trial. In the context of single-arm clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints following Weibull distribution, we present the calculation of the Bayesian predictive probability when the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution is unknown. Based on the data accumulated at the interim, we propose two approaches which rely on the posterior mode or the entire posterior distribution of the shape parameter. To account for uncertainty in the shape parameter, it is recommended to incorporate its entire posterior distribution in our calculation.

A phase II study of perioperative pembrolizumab plus mFOLFOX in patients with potentially resectable esophagus, gastroesophageal junction (GEJ), and stomach adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Perioperative chemotherapy/chemoradiation is standard in esophageal/gastric/gastroesophageal junction (GEJ) adenocarcinoma, immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) effect in setting of metastatic and postoperatively. This study is to assess ICI + chemotherapy perioperatively. METHODS: Patients with locally advanced (T1N1-3M0 or T2-3NanyM0) potentially resectable esophageal/gastric/GEJ adenocarcinoma by PET/EUS/CT and staging-laparoscopy, were treated preoperative 4 cycles mFOLFOX6 (Oxaliplatin 85 mg/m2 /Leucovorin 400 mg/m2 /5-FU bolus 400 mg/m2 then infusion 2400 mg/m2 for 46 h q2weeks) and 3 cycles pembrolizumab (200 mg q3week). Those without distal disease post-neoadjuvant and eligible for resection underwent surgery. Postoperative treatment was initiated at 4-8 weeks with 4 cycles mFOLFOX and 12 cycles pembrolizumab. The primary objective is pathological response (ypRR with tumor regression score, TRS ≤2). The expression of ICI-related markers PD-L1 (CPS), CD8, and CD20 were analyzed before and after preoperative therapy. RESULTS: Thirty-seven patients completed the preoperative treatment. Twenty-nine patients had curative R0 resection. 6/29 (21%; 95% CI: 0.08-0.40) achieved ypCR with TRS 0 in resected patients. 26/29 (90%; 95% CI: 0.73-0.98) had ypRR with TRS ≤2. Twenty-six patients finished adjuvant therapy with a median 36.3-month follow-up. Three patients had recurrence/metastatic disease (at 9-, 10-, 22 months enrollment) with one dead at 23 months, and two are still alive at 28 and 36.5 months. The remaining (23/26) are free of disease with 3 years DFS of 88.5% and 3 years OS of 92.3%. There were no unexpected toxicities. Preoperative ICI + chemotherapy enhanced immune responses significantly with increasing expression of PD-L1 (CPS ≥10, p = 0.0078) and CD8 (>5%, p = 0.0059). CONCLUSIONS: The perioperative pembrolizumab and mFOLFOX combination in resectable esophageal/gastric/GEJ adenocarcinoma is very effective with 90% ypRR, 21% ypCR, and impressive long-time survival benefits.

Phase 2 trial in acetylcholine receptor antibody-positive myasthenia gravis of transition from intravenous to subcutaneous immunoglobulin: The MGSCIg study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Data on maintenance therapy with subcutaneous immunoglobulin (SCIg) in myasthenia gravis (MG) are limited. We report on transitioning acetylcholine receptor (AChR) antibody-positive (Ab+) MG patients on stable intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIg) regimens as part of routine clinical care to SCIg 1:1.2. METHODS: This multicenter North American open-label prospective investigator-initiated study had two components: the IVIg Stabilization Period (ISP) enrolling patients already on IVIg as part of routine clinical care (Weeks -10 to -1), followed by transition of stable MG subjects to SCIg in the Experimental Treatment Period (ETP; Weeks 0 to 12). We hypothesized that >65% of patients entering the ETP would have a stable Quantitative Myasthenia Gravis (QMG) score from Week 0 to Week 12. Secondary outcome measures included other efficacy measures, safety, tolerability, IgG levels, and treatment satisfaction. RESULTS: We recruited 23 patients in the ISP, and 22 entered the ETP. A total of 12 subjects (54.5%) were female, and 18 (81.8%) were White, with mean age 51.4 ± 17 years. We obtained Week 12 ETP QMG data on 19 of 22; one subject withdrew from ETP owing to clinical deterioration, and two subjects withdrew due to dislike of needles. On primary analysis, 19 of 22 participants (86.4%, 95% confidence interval = 0.72-1.00) were treatment successes using last observation carried forward (p = 0.018). Secondary efficacy measures supported MG stability. SCIg was safe and well tolerated, and IgG levels were stable. Treatment satisfaction was comparable between ISP and ETP. CONCLUSIONS: MG patients on IVIg as part of their routine clinical care remained stable on monthly IVIg dosage, and most maintained similar disease stability on SCIg.

Cabozantinib plus durvalumab in advanced gastroesophageal cancer and other gastrointestinal malignancies: Phase Ib CAMILLA trial results.

This is the phase Ib part of the phase I/II CAMILLA trial evaluating cabozantinib plus durvalumab in advanced chemo-refractory proficient mismatch repair or microsatellite stable (pMMR/MSS) gastrointestinal malignancies including gastric/gastroesophageal junction/esophageal (G/GEJ/E) adenocarcinoma, colorectal cancer (CRC), and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Thirty-five patients are enrolled. There are no observed dose-limiting toxicities during dose escalation. The overall grade 3/4 treatment-related adverse event rate is 34%. Among evaluable patients (n = 30), the objective response rate (ORR) is 30%, disease control rate (DCR) 83.3%, 6-month progression-free survival (PFS) 36.7%, median PFS 4.5 months, and median overall survival (OS) 8.7 months. Responses are seen in 4 of 17, 3 of 10, and 2 of 3 patients with CRC, G/GEJ/E adenocarcinoma, and HCC, respectively. Participants with a PD-L1 combined positive score (CPS) ≥5 have numerically higher ORR, PFS, and OS. Cabozantinib plus durvalumab demonstrates a tolerable safety profile and potential efficacy in previously treated advanced pMMR/MSS gastrointestinal malignancies.

Ticagrelor inhibits platelet aggregation and reduces inflammatory burden more than clopidogrel in patients with stages 4 or 5 chronic kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: No study has compared pharmacologic properties of ticagrelor and clopidogrel in non-dialysis patients with stage 4-5 chronic kidney disease (CKD). METHODS: We conducted a double-blind RCT to compare effects of ticagrelor and clopidogrel in 48 CKD, with the primary outcome of ADP-induced platelet aggregation (WBPA) after 2 weeks of DAPT. In a parallel arm, we compared effects of 2 weeks of ticagrelor plus aspirin on mean changes in WBPA and markers of thromboinflammation among non-CKD controls (n = 26) with that of CKD in the ticagrelor-arm. RESULTS: Average age of CKD was 53.7 years, with 62% women, 54% African American, and 42% with stage 5 CKD. Ticagrelor generated statistically lower WBPA values post treatment [median 0 Ω (IQR 0, 2)] vs. clopidogrel [median 0 Ω (IQR 0, 5)] (P = 0.002); percent inhibition of WBPA was greater (87 ± 22% vs. 63 ± 50%; P = 0.04; and plasma IL-6 levels were much lower (8.42 ± 1.73 pg/ml vs. 18.48 ± 26.56 pg/ml; P = 0.04). No differences in mean changes in WBPA between CKD-ticagrelor and control groups were observed. Ticagrelor- DAPT reduced levels of IL-1α and IL-1ß in CKD-ticagrelor and control groups, attenuated lowering of TNFα and TRAIL levels in CKD-ticagrelor (vs controls), and had global changes in correlation between various cytokines in a subgroup of CKD-ticagrelor subjects not on statins (n = 10). Peak/trough levels of ticagrelor/metabolite were not different between CKD-ticagrelor and control groups. CONCLUSIONS: We report significant differences in platelet aggregation and anti-inflammatory properties between ticagrelor- and clopidogrel-based DAPT in non-dialysis people with stage 4-5 CKD. These notable inflammatory responses suggest ticagrelor-based DAPT might lower inflammatory burden of asymptomatic patients with stage 4 or 5 CKD. (clinicaltrials.gov # NCT03649711).

Age Modifies Intracranial and Gastrointestinal Bleeding Risk from P2Y12 Inhibitors in Patients Receiving Dialysis.

Background: Individuals aged ≥75 years are the fastest-growing population starting dialysis for end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) due to living longer with coronary artery disease. ESKD alone can increase bleeding risk, but P2Y12 inhibitor (P2Y12-I) antiplatelet medications prescribed for cardiovascular treatment can exacerbate this risk in patients with ESKD. The age-specific rates of bleeding complications in dialysis patients with ESKD on P2Y12-I remain unclear, as does how age modifies the bleeding risk from P2Y12-I use in these patients. Methods: In a retrospective cohort study, we collected data on 40,972 patients receiving maintenance hemo- or peritoneal dialysis who were newly prescribed P2Y12-I therapy between 2011 and 2015 from the USRDS registry. We analyzed the effect of age on the time to first bleed and the interactions between age and P2Y12-I type on modifying the effects of a bleed. Results: Twenty percent of the cohort were aged ≥75 years. There were 3096 (8%) gastrointestinal (GI) and 1298 (3%) intracranial (IC) bleeding events during a median follow-up of 1 year. Annual incidence rates for IC bleeds were 2% in those aged <55 years and 3% in those aged ≥75 years. Rates for GI bleeds were 4% in those aged <55 years and 9% in those aged ≥75 years. On clopidogrel, prasugrel, and ticagrelor, for every decade increase in age of the cohort members, the risk of IC bleed increased by 9%, 55%, and 59%, and the risk of GI bleed increased by 21%, 28%, and 39%, respectively. At age ≥75 years, prasugrel was associated with a greater risk of IC bleed than clopidogrel. At age ≥60 years, ticagrelor was associated with a greater risk of GI bleed than clopidogrel. Conclusions: More potent P2Y12-Is (prasugrel and ticagrelor) were associated with a disproportionately higher risk of IC bleed with increasing age compared with that of clopidogrel-prasugrel was much worse than clopidogrel at age ≥75 years. All three drugs were associated with only modest increase in the risk of GI bleed with every decade increase in age-ticagrelor was much worse than clopidogrel at ≥60 years of age. These results highlight the need for head-to-head clinical trials for the use of P2Y12-Is in patients with ESKD to determine age cutoffs where the risk of bleeding outweighs the benefits of thrombosis prevention.

Design and Basic Characteristics of a National Patient-Powered Registry in ADPKD.

Background: Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is the most common form of inherited kidney disease worldwide. Over the past five years, the therapeutic pipeline for ADPKD has expanded, leading to a growing need for patient enrollment in clinical trials and improved understanding of patient-centered outcomes that can be used in trial design. To advance these goals, the Polycystic Kidney Disease Foundation (PKDF) established a national web-based ADPKD Registry. Methods: The ADPKD Registry is hosted on a secure, HIPAA-compliant, online platform (IQVIA, oc-meridian.com/pkdcure). Participants are consented through the online system and complete a series of modules. The Core Questionnaire includes patient-reported diagnosis, latest creatinine values, and comorbidities. Additional modules include surveys of family history, diet, quality of life, extrarenal manifestations, and attitudes surrounding research participation. Results: As of October 2021, 1563 ADPKD patients across the United States have registered and completed the Core Questionnaire. Participants have a median age of 44 years and are 72% women, 93% White, with 4% self-identifying as Hispanic/Latino and 2% as Black. All CKD stages are present, including post kidney transplant. To date, seven clinical studies have used the Registry as a recruitment tool. Additionally, quality-of-life burden scores revealed a correlation with disease stage as determined by kidney function. Conclusions: The Registry described here is the only one of its kind and is a valuable longitudinal research tool encompassing all stages of ADPKD. The registry will allow investigators to pursue a range of research questions related to the management of ADPKD, including definition of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) outcomes and recruitment for a variety of observational and therapeutic clinical protocols.

Platelet-Dependent Inflammatory Dysregulation in Patients with Stages 4 or 5 Chronic Kidney Disease: A Mechanistic Clinical Study.

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is characterized by dysregulated inflammation that worsens with CKD severity. The role of platelets in modulating inflammation in stage 4 or 5 CKD remains unexplored. We investigated whether there are changes in platelet-derived thromboinflammatory markers in CKD with dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT; aspirin 81 mg/d plus P2Y12 inhibitor). Methods: In a mechanistic clinical trial, we compared platelet activation markers (aggregation and surface receptor expression), circulating platelet-leukocyte aggregates, leukocyte composition (monocyte subtypes and CD11b surface expression), and plasma cytokine profile (45 analytes) of non-CKD controls (n=26) and CKD outpatients (n=48) with a glomerular filtration rate (GFR) <30 ml/min per 1.73 m2 on 2 weeks of DAPT. Results: Patients with CKD demonstrated a reduced mean platelet count, elevated mean platelet volume, reduced platelet-leukocyte aggregates, reduced platelet-bound monocytes, higher total non-classic monocytes in the circulation, and higher levels of IL-1RA, VEGF, and fractalkine (all P<0.05). There were no differences in platelet activation markers between CKD and controls. Although DAPT reduced platelet aggregation in both groups, it had multifaceted effects on thromboinflammatory markers in CKD, including a reduction in PDGF levels in all CKD individuals, reductions in IL-1ß and TNF-α levels in select CKD individuals, and no change in a number of other cytokines. Significant positive correlations existed for baseline IL-1ß, PDGF, and TNF-α levels with older age, and for baseline TNF-α levels with presence of diabetes mellitus and worse albuminuria. Mean change in IL-1ß and PDGF levels on DAPT positively correlated with younger age, mean change in TNF-α levels with higher GFR, and mean changes in PDGF, and TRAIL levels correlated with worse albuminuria. Minimum spanning trees plot of cytokines showed platelet-derived CD40L had a large reduction in weight factor after DAPT in CKD. Additionally, platelet-derived IL-1ß and PDGF were tightly correlated with other cytokines, with IL-1ß as the hub cytokine. Conclusions: Attenuated interactions between platelets and leukocytes in the CKD state coincided with no change in platelet activation status, an altered differentiation state of monocytes, and heightened inflammatory markers. Platelet-derived cytokines were one of the central cytokines in patients with CKD that were tightly correlated with others. DAPT had multifaceted effects on thromboinflammation, suggesting that there is platelet-dependent and -independent inflammation in stage 4 or 5 CKD.

Accurate Medication Adherence Measurement Using Administrative Data for Frequently Hospitalized Patients.

Background: Pharmacy administrative claims data remain an accessible and efficient source to measure medication adherence for frequently hospitalized patient populations that are systematically excluded from the landmark drug trials. Published pharmacotherapy studies use medication possession ratio (MPR) and proportion of days covered (PDC) to calculate medication adherence and usually fail to incorporate hospitalization and prescription overlap/gap from claims data. To make the cacophony of adherence measures clearer, this study created a refined hospital-adjusted algorithm to capture pharmacotherapy adherence among patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Methods: The United States Renal Data System (USRDS) registry of ESRD was used to determine prescription-filling patterns of those receiving new prescriptions for oral P2Y12 inhibitors (P2Y12-I) between 2011 and 2015. P2Y12-I-naïve patients were followed until death, kidney transplantation, discontinuing medications, or loss to follow-up. After flagging/censoring key variables, the algorithm adjusted for hospital length of stay (LOS) and medication overlap. Hospital-adjusted medication adherence (HA-PDC) was calculated and compared with traditional MPR and PDC methods. Analyses were performed with SAS software. Results: Hospitalization occurred for 78% of the cohort (N = 46 514). The median LOS was 12 (interquartile range [IQR] = 2-34) days. MPR and PDC were 61% (IQR = 29%-94%) and 59% (IQR = 31%-93%), respectively. After applying adjustments for overlapping coverage days and hospital stays independently, HA-PDC adherence values changed in 41% and 52.7% of the cohort, respectively. When adjustments for overlap and hospital stay were made concurrently, HA-PDC adherence values changed in 68% of the cohort by 5.8% (HA-PDC median = 0.68, IQR = 0.31-0.93). HA-PDC declined over time (3M-6M-9M-12M). Nearly 48% of the cohort had a ≥30 days refill gap in the first 3 months, and this increased over time (P < .0001). Conclusions: Refill gaps should be investigated carefully to capture accurate pharmacotherapy adherence. HA-PDC measures increased adherence substantially when adjustments for hospital stay and medication refill overlaps are made. Furthermore, if hospitalizations were ignored for medications that are included in Medicare quality measures, such as Medicare STAR program, the apparent reduction in adherence might be associated with lower quality and health plan reimbursement.

Comparative Effectiveness and Safety of Oral P2Y12 Inhibitors in Patients on Chronic Dialysis.

INTRODUCTION: Although oral P2Y12 inhibitors (P2Y12-Is) are one of the most commonly prescribed medication classes in patients with end stage kidney disease on dialysis (ESKD), scarce data exist regarding their benefits and risks. METHODS: We compared effectiveness and safety of clopidogrel, prasugrel, and ticagrelor in a longitudinal study using the United States Renal Data System registry of Medicare beneficiaries with ESKD. Individuals who filled new P2Y12-I prescriptions between 2011 and 2015 were included and followed until death or censoring. The primary exposure variable was P2Y12-I assignment. The primary outcome variable was death. Secondary outcomes included cardiovascular (CV) death, coronary revascularization, and gastrointestinal (GI) hemorrhage. Survival analyses were performed after propensity matching. RESULTS: Of 44,619 patients with ESKD who received P2Y12-Is, 95% received clopidogrel (n = 42,523), 3% prasugrel (n = 1205), and 2% ticagrelor (n = 891). To balance baseline differences, propensity-matching was performed: 1:6 for prasugrel (n = 1189) versus clopidogrel (n = 7134); 1:4 for ticagrelor (n = 880) versus clopidogrel (n = 3520); and 1:1 for ticagrelor versus prasugrel (n = 880). Prasugrel was associated with a reduced risk for death versus clopidogrel and ticagrelor (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 0.82; 95% CI: 0.73-0.93 and 0.78; 95% CI: 0.64-0.95). Compared with clopidogrel, prasugrel reduced risk for coronary revascularization (HR = 0.91; 95% CI: 0.86-0.96). There were no differences in GI hemorrhage between P2Y12-Is. CONCLUSION: In patients with ESKD, prasugrel compared with others reduced risk of death possibly by reducing risk for coronary revascularizations and without worsening gastrointestinal hemorrhage. Future trials are imperative to compare efficacy and safety of P2Y12-Is in patients with ESKD.

Sample size calculation for two-arm trials with time-to-event endpoint for nonproportional hazards using the concept of Relative Time when inference is built on comparing Weibull distributions.

Sample size calculations for two-arm clinical trials with a time-to-event endpoint have traditionally used the assumption of proportional hazards (PH) or the assumption of exponentially distributed survival times. Available software provides methods for sample size calculation using a nonparametric logrank test, Schoenfeld's formula for Cox PH model, or parametric calculations specific to the exponential distribution. In cases where the PH assumption is not valid, the first-choice method is to compute sample size assuming a piecewise linear survival curve (Lakatos approach) for both the control and treatment arms with judiciously chosen cut-points. Recent advances in literature have used the assumption of Weibull distributed times for single-arm trials, and, newer methods have emerged that allow sample size calculations for two-arm trials using the assumption of proportional time (PT) while considering non-PH. These methods, however, always assume an instantaneous effect of treatment relative to control requiring that the effect size be defined by a single number whose magnitude is preserved throughout the trial duration. Here, we consider the scenarios where the hypothesized benefit of treatment relative to control may not be constant giving rise to the notion of Relative Time (RT). By assuming that survival times for control and treatment arm come from two different Weibull distributions with different location and shape parameters, we develop the methodology for sample size calculation for specific cases of both non-PH and non-PT. Simulations are conducted to assess the operation characteristics of the proposed method and a practical example is discussed.