An Empirical Study of the Pathway Model Link Between Cognitive Distortions and Gambling Problems.

This research empirically tests the relationship between gambling-related cognitive distortions and the development of gambling problems. In two separate studies using methodologies designed to support non-experimental causal inference, we demonstrate that holding false beliefs about gambling experiences is related to current and future risk of developing problems with gambling. In our first study, we use an instrumental variable estimation strategy on an internet sample (n = 184) and observe a statistically significant relationship between Gamblers' Belief Questionnaire scores and measures of loss chasing, overspending, and gambling problems. These findings were robust to linear and ordinal estimation strategies and multiple model specifications. In our second study, we examine five-year prospective longitudinal data (n = 1,431) to validate our initial findings and test whether irrational thoughts are also related to future problems with gambling. While controlling for current fallacies, we find that past Gambling Fallacies Measure scores are related to present gambling problems across two survey waves. The effect size of each of the past fallacy levels is roughly half of the effect size of present levels, suggesting meaningful impacts. Our findings support the Pathways Model of Problem and Pathological Gambling.

Meme asset wagering: Perceptions of risk, overconfidence, and gambling problems.

Several financial assets, such as shares of GameStop or Dogecoin cryptocurrency, became the focus of substantial speculation in early-2021 that resulted in high price volatility and trading volume. This "meme asset wagering" appears to be closely related to the emergence of zero-fee retail brokerages, high-leverage cryptocurrency exchanges, and social media investment communities that facilitate and encourage risky behavior. As an emerging form of financial risk-taking, little is known about participants in these markets. In this study, an internet-based sample (n = 643) was recruited to assess the relation between meme asset ownership, perceived risks in gambling and investing, investment knowledge, and measures associated with gambling problems. Results suggest that meme asset wagerers perceive less risk from financial uncertainty, have higher levels of overconfidence in their investment ability, and have higher risk of gambling problems. The findings suggest that these products may be treated like gambling by some individuals.

Short-term cognitive impacts of electronic gaming machines with and without a skill-based component: A comparative laboratory study.

This study aimed to compare how consumers understand the role of skill and chance, experience cognitive distortions, and experience immersion based on use of either electronic gaming machines (EGMs) or skill gambling machines (SGMs; EGMs with a skill-based component). Participants (N = 246, M age = 34 years, 56.91% female) in a laboratory experiment were randomly assigned to play a real EGM or SGM without funds and self-reported measures including intention to gamble, understanding of the role of skill and chance, erroneous gambling beliefs, previous gambling and gaming, and problem gambling severity. Participants demonstrated different deficits in understanding of the role of skill vs. chance in determining outcomes following play. SGM players were more likely to increase their belief that a skill impacts outcomes and focused more on the game play experience. EGM players focused more on wins and personal performance. Intention to play both machines was predicted in both groups by greater experience of immersion during play and breadth of previous gambling, but breadth of previous gaming experience only predicted intent to play SGMs. The results revealed that both EGM and SGM players fail to understand how outcomes are determined, which is likely more problematic for EGM players as this reflects clear cognitive distortions. Further real-world testing is required to understand the extent to which SGMs harms may be different than EGMs, however, these initial findings suggest that their risks appear comparable to EGMs while attracting individuals with more gaming experience.

A large-scale prospective study of big wins and their relationship with future financial and time involvement in actual daily fantasy sports contests.

OBJECTIVE: Early big wins might have a psychological impact upon gamblers that increases their likelihood of intemperate gambling; however, there has been a paucity of empirical research examining this effect using actual gambling data. METHOD: We assessed the effects of daily fantasy sports (DFS) big wins on subsequent play by analyzing a prospective dataset from a major DFS provider (N = 34,596 DFS subscribers) representing over 18 million entries into DFS contests. RESULTS: We found that experiencing a big win in DFS is associated with subsequently increased DFS engagement (i.e., increased contest entry fees and contest entries) and losses (i.e., higher net loss). However, the effect of a big win on engagement and losses decays over time. Whereas theorists have highlighted the effects of early big wins, our analyses indicated that later big wins had a relatively stronger effect on DFS engagement. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of most results, with somewhat greater support for big wins' effects on engagement metrics than losses. CONCLUSION: Our results collectively indicate the existence of a big win effect in DFS. For some players, big wins might instill unrealistic expectations about future probabilities of winning and lead to increased-and potentially excessive-engagement. Explanations from cognitive psychology (e.g., the illusion of control) and behavioral psychology (e.g., operant conditioning) might help to explain the big win effect. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Overconfidence in Understanding of How Electronic Gaming Machines Work Is Related to Positive Attitudes.

Previous research has demonstrated that attitudes are a primary determinant of intention to gamble on electronic gaming machines (EGMs) consistent with the Theory of Reasoned Action. This paper aims to address how biases in judgment can contribute to attitudes and subsequently behavior, including maladaptive problematic gambling behavior. We take a novel approach by viewing overconfidence in one's understanding of how outcomes are determined on EGMs as an indication of cognitive distortions. The novelty of this paper is further increased as we compare attitudes to existing EGMs with novel EGMs which include a skill component, referred to as skill-based gaming machines (SGMs), which enables a better controlled comparison between actual and perceived skill. In Study 1, 232 US-based participants were recruited online who were shown various slot machines and SGMs and asked a series of questions about perceived skill and chance in determining outcomes to assess their understanding, then were asked their confidence in their understanding, attitudes toward the machines and they completed the Problem Gambling Severity Index. In Study 2, 246 Australian participants were recruited through community and university student samples; they attended a laboratory where they were randomly allocated to play a real EGM or SGM without money and completed the same measures as in Study 1. In Study 2, participants were randomly told that the outcomes on the machine they would play were determined entirely by chance, skill, or a mixture of both. In both studies, our findings suggest that there are more extreme values in overconfidence in how EGMs work, whereas individuals are more similar in their confidence in understanding SGMs. We also find a relationship between overconfidence in EGM understanding and positive attitudes toward EGMs, but no such relationship with SGMs. There was no impact from controlling for demographics, problem gambling severity, or labeling of machines on these relationships.

Predicting Intention to Play Random and Skill-based Electronic Gambling Machines Using the Theory of Reasoned Action.

Hybrid gambling machines (HGMs) are a new gambling activity that combine the skill element of traditional video games with the random pay-out schedule of electronic gaming machines (e.g., slots). Developed to increase gambling by younger generations that favor video games, there is currently no empirical evidence regarding consumer views of HGMs to guide policy-decision making related to this new gambling activity. We use the theory of reasoned action (TRA) to investigate factors that motivate intentions to play these machines in two studies: (1) among 43 casino patrons and (2) among 184 US online participants residing in states where HGMs were available. Both samples completed surveys after exposure to actual or explanations of HGMs and slots. Analyses supported the prediction that positive attitudes towards HGMs and positively perceived subjective norms would predict intention to play HGMs and slots. The results suggest that the TRA is a useful framework for explaining intentions to gamble on traditional slot machines and new HGMs. The absence of research on HGMs makes these studies an important and necessary contribution to the empirical literature on machine gambling. Understanding individuals' intentions to engage with HGMs is important to guide development of harm-minimisation practices and evaluate impact of policy changes.

An Assessment of the Validity of the Gamblers Belief Questionnaire.

Cognitive distortions in gambling are irrational thoughts that cause an individual to overestimate their level of control over the outcome of the game and diminish the role of chance. Due to their strong relation to gambling disorders, they are a particularly important characteristic to assess and understand in gamblers. Although numerous measures of gambling-related cognitive distortions exist, studies assessing criterion validity are scarce. In this study, we develop several tests of the Gamblers Belief Questionnaire (GBQ), a versatile and widely used scale. A sample of 184 U.S. adults was recruited through Amazon Mechanical Turk to complete an online study that included measurement of the GBQ and an assessment of the perceived role of skill and chance in various gambling and non-gambling activities. In addition to a confirmatory factor analysis of the scale, three novel validation tests were developed to understand whether the GBQ subscales can identify and discriminate measures of illusion of control and gambler's fallacy distortions. Our validation tests demonstrate that the scale does measure both distortions, providing information about gamblers' cognition that is unexplained by gambling problems, frequency of play, and demographics. Conversely, our analysis of the factor structure does not show good fit. We conclude that the GBQ measures gambling-related cognitive distortions, but there may be an opportunity to reduce the number of scale items and further refine precision of the two subscales.

Strategies to customize responsible gambling messages: a review and focus group study.

BACKGROUND: Responsible gambling messages are widely used as a tool to enable informed choice and encourage appropriate gambling behavior. It is generally accepted that gamblers have different levels of risk of developing gambling problems and require various harm minimization tools and resources. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect that responsible gambling messages should be customized and target specific groups of gamblers. This project aimed to understand hypothesized differences between cohorts of gamblers and receive qualitative feedback on archetypal targeted messages used to increase use of responsible gambling tools. METHODS: Focus groups were held to test messages for specific cohorts: young adults (18-24 years), seniors (60+ years), frequent gamblers (weekly), and gamblers of skill-based games (poker, sports betting). RESULTS: Cohorts exhibited different preferences and responses to message archetypes. Seniors preferred messages about limit setting, whilst young adults and frequent gamblers responded to messages about their own play and expertise. Skill game gamblers were interested in the odds of winning and their own outcomes over time. However, all groups agreed that using positive, non-judgmental language in messaging is important. CONCLUSIONS: This research makes an important contribution to the field by demonstrating that the wording of message content will likely influence the effectiveness of such messages differentially across various groups of gamblers for engaging gamblers in harm reduction tools. Guidance is provided on themes that can be used by public health marketers.

Determinants of internet poker adoption.

In nearly all jurisdictions, adoption of a new form of gambling has been a controversial and contentious subject. Online gambling has been no different, though there are many aspects that affect online gambling that do not appear in the brick and mortar environment. This study seeks to identify whether demographic, economic, political, technological, and/or sociological determinants contribute to online poker gambling adoption. A theoretical discussion of these categories' importance to online poker is provided and exploratory empirical analysis is used to examine their potential validity. The analysis revealed support for all of the proposed categories of variables thought to be predictive of online gambling legality.