Radiomics-based prediction of local control in patients with brain metastases following postoperative stereotactic radiotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Surgical resection is the standard of care for patients with large or symptomatic brain metastases (BMs). Despite improved local control after adjuvant stereotactic radiotherapy, the risk of local failure (LF) persists. Therefore, we aimed to develop and externally validate a pre-therapeutic radiomics-based prediction tool to identify patients at high LF risk. METHODS: Data were collected from A Multicenter Analysis of Stereotactic Radiotherapy to the Resection Cavity of Brain Metastases (AURORA) retrospective study (training cohort: 253 patients from two centers; external test cohort: 99 patients from five centers). Radiomic features were extracted from the contrast-enhancing BM (T1-CE MRI sequence) and the surrounding edema (FLAIR sequence). Different combinations of radiomic and clinical features were compared. The final models were trained on the entire training cohort with the best parameter set previously determined by internal 5-fold cross-validation and tested on the external test set. RESULTS: The best performance in the external test was achieved by an elastic net regression model trained with a combination of radiomic and clinical features with a concordance index (CI) of 0.77, outperforming any clinical model (best CI: 0.70). The model effectively stratified patients by LF risk in a Kaplan-Meier analysis (p < 0.001) and demonstrated an incremental net clinical benefit. At 24 months, we found LF in 9% and 74% of the low and high-risk groups, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A combination of clinical and radiomic features predicted freedom from LF better than any clinical feature set alone. Patients at high risk for LF may benefit from stricter follow-up routines or intensified therapy.

MISATO: machine learning dataset of protein-ligand complexes for structure-based drug discovery.

Large language models have greatly enhanced our ability to understand biology and chemistry, yet robust methods for structure-based drug discovery, quantum chemistry and structural biology are still sparse. Precise biomolecule-ligand interaction datasets are urgently needed for large language models. To address this, we present MISATO, a dataset that combines quantum mechanical properties of small molecules and associated molecular dynamics simulations of ~20,000 experimental protein-ligand complexes with extensive validation of experimental data. Starting from the existing experimental structures, semi-empirical quantum mechanics was used to systematically refine these structures. A large collection of molecular dynamics traces of protein-ligand complexes in explicit water is included, accumulating over 170 µs. We give examples of machine learning (ML) baseline models proving an improvement of accuracy by employing our data. An easy entry point for ML experts is provided to enable the next generation of drug discovery artificial intelligence models.

Virtual reality-empowered deep-learning analysis of brain cells.

Automated detection of specific cells in three-dimensional datasets such as whole-brain light-sheet image stacks is challenging. Here, we present DELiVR, a virtual reality-trained deep-learning pipeline for detecting c-Fos+ cells as markers for neuronal activity in cleared mouse brains. Virtual reality annotation substantially accelerated training data generation, enabling DELiVR to outperform state-of-the-art cell-segmenting approaches. Our pipeline is available in a user-friendly Docker container that runs with a standalone Fiji plugin. DELiVR features a comprehensive toolkit for data visualization and can be customized to other cell types of interest, as we did here for microglia somata, using Fiji for dataset-specific training. We applied DELiVR to investigate cancer-related brain activity, unveiling an activation pattern that distinguishes weight-stable cancer from cancers associated with weight loss. Overall, DELiVR is a robust deep-learning tool that does not require advanced coding skills to analyze whole-brain imaging data in health and disease.

Improved prediction of bacterial CRISPRi guide efficiency from depletion screens through mixed-effect machine learning and data integration.

CRISPR interference (CRISPRi) is the leading technique to silence gene expression in bacteria; however, design rules remain poorly defined. We develop a best-in-class prediction algorithm for guide silencing efficiency by systematically investigating factors influencing guide depletion in genome-wide essentiality screens, with the surprising discovery that gene-specific features substantially impact prediction. We develop a mixed-effect random forest regression model that provides better estimates of guide efficiency. We further apply methods from explainable AI to extract interpretable design rules from the model. This study provides a blueprint for predictive models for CRISPR technologies where only indirect measurements of guide activity are available.

Whole-body cellular mapping in mouse using standard IgG antibodies.

Whole-body imaging techniques play a vital role in exploring the interplay of physiological systems in maintaining health and driving disease. We introduce wildDISCO, a new approach for whole-body immunolabeling, optical clearing and imaging in mice, circumventing the need for transgenic reporter animals or nanobody labeling and so overcoming existing technical limitations. We identified heptakis(2,6-di-O-methyl)-ß-cyclodextrin as a potent enhancer of cholesterol extraction and membrane permeabilization, enabling deep, homogeneous penetration of standard antibodies without aggregation. WildDISCO facilitates imaging of peripheral nervous systems, lymphatic vessels and immune cells in whole mice at cellular resolution by labeling diverse endogenous proteins. Additionally, we examined rare proliferating cells and the effects of biological perturbations, as demonstrated in germ-free mice. We applied wildDISCO to map tertiary lymphoid structures in the context of breast cancer, considering both primary tumor and metastases throughout the mouse body. An atlas of high-resolution images showcasing mouse nervous, lymphatic and vascular systems is accessible at http://discotechnologies.org/wildDISCO/atlas/index.php .

The Brain Tumor Segmentation (BraTS) Challenge 2023: Focus on Pediatrics (CBTN-CONNECT-DIPGR-ASNR-MICCAI BraTS-PEDs).

Pediatric tumors of the central nervous system are the most common cause of cancer-related death in children. The five-year survival rate for high-grade gliomas in children is less than 20%. Due to their rarity, the diagnosis of these entities is often delayed, their treatment is mainly based on historic treatment concepts, and clinical trials require multi-institutional collaborations. The MICCAI Brain Tumor Segmentation (BraTS) Challenge is a landmark community benchmark event with a successful history of 12 years of resource creation for the segmentation and analysis of adult glioma. Here we present the CBTN-CONNECT-DIPGR-ASNR-MICCAI BraTS-PEDs 2023 challenge, which represents the first BraTS challenge focused on pediatric brain tumors with data acquired across multiple international consortia dedicated to pediatric neuro-oncology and clinical trials. The BraTS-PEDs 2023 challenge focuses on benchmarking the development of volumentric segmentation algorithms for pediatric brain glioma through standardized quantitative performance evaluation metrics utilized across the BraTS 2023 cluster of challenges. Models gaining knowledge from the BraTS-PEDs multi-parametric structural MRI (mpMRI) training data will be evaluated on separate validation and unseen test mpMRI dataof high-grade pediatric glioma. The CBTN-CONNECT-DIPGR-ASNR-MICCAI BraTS-PEDs 2023 challenge brings together clinicians and AI/imaging scientists to lead to faster development of automated segmentation techniques that could benefit clinical trials, and ultimately the care of children with brain tumors.

Identifying core MRI sequences for reliable automatic brain metastasis segmentation.

BACKGROUND: Many automatic approaches to brain tumor segmentation employ multiple magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) sequences. The goal of this project was to compare different combinations of input sequences to determine which MRI sequences are needed for effective automated brain metastasis (BM) segmentation. METHODS: We analyzed preoperative imaging (T1-weighted sequence ± contrast-enhancement (T1/T1-CE), T2-weighted sequence (T2), and T2 fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (T2-FLAIR) sequence) from 339 patients with BMs from seven centers. A baseline 3D U-Net with all four sequences and six U-Nets with plausible sequence combinations (T1-CE, T1, T2-FLAIR, T1-CE + T2-FLAIR, T1-CE + T1 + T2-FLAIR, T1-CE + T1) were trained on 239 patients from two centers and subsequently tested on an external cohort of 100 patients from five centers. RESULTS: The model based on T1-CE alone achieved the best segmentation performance for BM segmentation with a median Dice similarity coefficient (DSC) of 0.96. Models trained without T1-CE performed worse (T1-only: DSC = 0.70 and T2-FLAIR-only: DSC = 0.73). For edema segmentation, models that included both T1-CE and T2-FLAIR performed best (DSC = 0.93), while the remaining four models without simultaneous inclusion of these both sequences reached a median DSC of 0.81-0.89. CONCLUSIONS: A T1-CE-only protocol suffices for the segmentation of BMs. The combination of T1-CE and T2-FLAIR is important for edema segmentation. Missing either T1-CE or T2-FLAIR decreases performance. These findings may improve imaging routines by omitting unnecessary sequences, thus allowing for faster procedures in daily clinical practice while enabling optimal neural network-based target definitions.

The Brain Tumor Segmentation (BraTS) Challenge 2023: Brain MR Image Synthesis for Tumor Segmentation (BraSyn).

Automated brain tumor segmentation methods have become well-established and reached performance levels offering clear clinical utility. These methods typically rely on four input magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) modalities: T1-weighted images with and without contrast enhancement, T2-weighted images, and FLAIR images. However, some sequences are often missing in clinical practice due to time constraints or image artifacts, such as patient motion. Consequently, the ability to substitute missing modalities and gain segmentation performance is highly desirable and necessary for the broader adoption of these algorithms in the clinical routine. In this work, we present the establishment of the Brain MR Image Synthesis Benchmark (BraSyn) in conjunction with the Medical Image Computing and Computer-Assisted Intervention (MICCAI) 2023. The primary objective of this challenge is to evaluate image synthesis methods that can realistically generate missing MRI modalities when multiple available images are provided. The ultimate aim is to facilitate automated brain tumor segmentation pipelines. The image dataset used in the benchmark is diverse and multi-modal, created through collaboration with various hospitals and research institutions.

The ASNR-MICCAI Brain Tumor Segmentation (BraTS) Challenge 2023: Intracranial Meningioma.

Meningiomas are the most common primary intracranial tumor in adults and can be associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Radiologists, neurosurgeons, neuro-oncologists, and radiation oncologists rely on multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) for diagnosis, treatment planning, and longitudinal treatment monitoring; yet automated, objective, and quantitative tools for non-invasive assessment of meningiomas on mpMRI are lacking. The BraTS meningioma 2023 challenge will provide a community standard and benchmark for state-of-the-art automated intracranial meningioma segmentation models based on the largest expert annotated multilabel meningioma mpMRI dataset to date. Challenge competitors will develop automated segmentation models to predict three distinct meningioma sub-regions on MRI including enhancing tumor, non-enhancing tumor core, and surrounding nonenhancing T2/FLAIR hyperintensity. Models will be evaluated on separate validation and held-out test datasets using standardized metrics utilized across the BraTS 2023 series of challenges including the Dice similarity coefficient and Hausdorff distance. The models developed during the course of this challenge will aid in incorporation of automated meningioma MRI segmentation into clinical practice, which will ultimately improve care of patients with meningioma.

Providing AI expertise as an infrastructure in academia.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is proliferating and developing faster than any domain scientist can adapt. To support the scientific enterprise in the Helmholtz association, a network of AI specialists has been set up to disseminate AI expertise as an infrastructure among domain scientists. As this effort exposes an evolutionary step in science organization in Germany, this article aspires to describe our setup, goals, and motivations. We comment on past experiences, current developments, and future ideas as we bring our expertise as an infrastructure closer to scientists across our organization. We hope that this offers a brief yet insightful view of our activities as well as inspiration for other science organizations.

Formate promotes invasion and metastasis in reliance on lipid metabolism.

Metabolic rewiring is essential for cancer onset and progression. We previously showed that one-carbon metabolism-dependent formate production often exceeds the anabolic demand of cancer cells, resulting in formate overflow. Furthermore, we showed that increased extracellular formate concentrations promote the in vitro invasiveness of glioblastoma cells. Here, we substantiate these initial observations with ex vivo and in vivo experiments. We also show that exposure to exogeneous formate can prime cancer cells toward a pro-invasive phenotype leading to increased metastasis formation in vivo. Our results suggest that the increased local formate concentration within the tumor microenvironment can be one factor to promote metastases. Additionally, we describe a mechanistic interplay between formate-dependent increased invasiveness and adaptations of lipid metabolism and matrix metalloproteinase activity. Our findings consolidate the role of formate as pro-invasive metabolite and warrant further research to better understand the interplay between formate and lipid metabolism.

Cytokine signaling converging on IL11 in ILD fibroblasts provokes aberrant epithelial differentiation signatures.

Introduction: Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is a heterogenous group of lung disorders where destruction and incomplete regeneration of the lung parenchyma often results in persistent architectural distortion of the pulmonary scaffold. Continuous mesenchyme-centered, disease-relevant signaling likely initiates and perpetuates the fibrotic remodeling process, specifically targeting the epithelial cell compartment, thereby destroying the gas exchange area. Methods: With the aim of identifying functional mediators of the lung mesenchymal-epithelial crosstalk with potential as new targets for therapeutic strategies, we developed a 3D organoid co-culture model based on human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived alveolar epithelial type 2 cells that form alveolar organoids in presence of lung fibroblasts from fibrotic-ILD patients, in our study referring to cases of pulmonary fibrosis, as well as control cell line (IMR-90). Results: While organoid formation capacity and size was comparable in the presence of fibrotic-ILD or control lung fibroblasts, metabolic activity was significantly increased in fibrotic-ILD co-cultures. Alveolar organoids cultured with fibrotic-ILD fibroblasts further demonstrated reduced stem cell function as reflected by reduced Surfactant Protein C gene expression together with an aberrant basaloid-prone differentiation program indicated by elevated Cadherin 2, Bone Morphogenic Protein 4 and Vimentin transcription. To screen for key mediators of the misguided mesenchymal-to-epithelial crosstalk with a focus on disease-relevant inflammatory processes, we used mass spectrometry and characterized the secretome of end stage fibrotic-ILD lung fibroblasts in comparison to non-chronic lung disease (CLD) patient fibroblasts. Out of the over 2000 proteins detected by this experimental approach, 47 proteins were differentially abundant comparing fibrotic-ILD and non-CLD fibroblast secretome. The fibrotic-ILD secretome profile was dominated by chemokines, including CXCL1, CXCL3, and CXCL8, interfering with growth factor signaling orchestrated by Interleukin 11 (IL11), steering fibrogenic cell-cell communication, and proteins regulating extracellular matrix remodeling including epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition. When in turn treating alveolar organoids with IL11, we recapitulated the co-culture results obtained with primary fibrotic-ILD fibroblasts including changes in metabolic activity. Conclusion: We identified mediators likely contributing to the disease-perpetuating mesenchymal-to-epithelial crosstalk in ILD. In our alveolar organoid co-cultures, we were able to highlight the importance of fibroblast-initiated aberrant epithelial differentiation and confirmed IL11 as a key player in fibrotic-ILD pathogenesis by unbiased fibroblast secretome analysis.

Echo2Pheno: a deep-learning application to uncover echocardiographic phenotypes in conscious mice.

Echocardiography, a rapid and cost-effective imaging technique, assesses cardiac function and structure. Despite its popularity in cardiovascular medicine and clinical research, image-derived phenotypic measurements are manually performed, requiring expert knowledge and training. Notwithstanding great progress in deep-learning applications in small animal echocardiography, the focus has so far only been on images of anesthetized rodents. We present here a new algorithm specifically designed for echocardiograms acquired in conscious mice called Echo2Pheno, an automatic statistical learning workflow for analyzing and interpreting high-throughput non-anesthetized transthoracic murine echocardiographic images in the presence of genetic knockouts. Echo2Pheno comprises a neural network module for echocardiographic image analysis and phenotypic measurements, including a statistical hypothesis-testing framework for assessing phenotypic differences between populations. Using 2159 images of 16 different knockout mouse strains of the German Mouse Clinic, Echo2Pheno accurately confirms known cardiovascular genotype-phenotype relationships (e.g., Dystrophin) and discovers novel genes (e.g., CCR4-NOT transcription complex subunit 6-like, Cnot6l, and synaptotagmin-like protein 4, Sytl4), which cause altered cardiovascular phenotypes, as verified by H&E-stained histological images. Echo2Pheno provides an important step toward automatic end-to-end learning for linking echocardiographic readouts to cardiovascular phenotypes of interest in conscious mice.

Genetically encoded barcodes for correlative volume electron microscopy.

While genetically encoded reporters are common for fluorescence microscopy, equivalent multiplexable gene reporters for electron microscopy (EM) are still scarce. Here, by installing a variable number of fixation-stable metal-interacting moieties in the lumen of encapsulin nanocompartments of different sizes, we developed a suite of spherically symmetric and concentric barcodes (EMcapsulins) that are readable by standard EM techniques. Six classes of EMcapsulins could be automatically segmented and differentiated. The coding capacity was further increased by arranging several EMcapsulins into distinct patterns via a set of rigid spacers of variable length. Fluorescent EMcapsulins were expressed to monitor subcellular structures in light and EM. Neuronal expression in Drosophila and mouse brains enabled the automatic identification of genetically defined cells in EM. EMcapsulins are compatible with transmission EM, scanning EM and focused ion beam scanning EM. The expandable palette of genetically controlled EM-readable barcodes can augment anatomical EM images with multiplexed gene expression maps.

The Liver Tumor Segmentation Benchmark (LiTS).

In this work, we report the set-up and results of the Liver Tumor Segmentation Benchmark (LiTS), which was organized in conjunction with the IEEE International Symposium on Biomedical Imaging (ISBI) 2017 and the International Conferences on Medical Image Computing and Computer-Assisted Intervention (MICCAI) 2017 and 2018. The image dataset is diverse and contains primary and secondary tumors with varied sizes and appearances with various lesion-to-background levels (hyper-/hypo-dense), created in collaboration with seven hospitals and research institutions. Seventy-five submitted liver and liver tumor segmentation algorithms were trained on a set of 131 computed tomography (CT) volumes and were tested on 70 unseen test images acquired from different patients. We found that not a single algorithm performed best for both liver and liver tumors in the three events. The best liver segmentation algorithm achieved a Dice score of 0.963, whereas, for tumor segmentation, the best algorithms achieved Dices scores of 0.674 (ISBI 2017), 0.702 (MICCAI 2017), and 0.739 (MICCAI 2018). Retrospectively, we performed additional analysis on liver tumor detection and revealed that not all top-performing segmentation algorithms worked well for tumor detection. The best liver tumor detection method achieved a lesion-wise recall of 0.458 (ISBI 2017), 0.515 (MICCAI 2017), and 0.554 (MICCAI 2018), indicating the need for further research. LiTS remains an active benchmark and resource for research, e.g., contributing the liver-related segmentation tasks in http://medicaldecathlon.com/. In addition, both data and online evaluation are accessible via https://competitions.codalab.org/competitions/17094.

DeepVesselNet: Vessel Segmentation, Centerline Prediction, and Bifurcation Detection in 3-D Angiographic Volumes.

We present DeepVesselNet, an architecture tailored to the challenges faced when extracting vessel trees and networks and corresponding features in 3-D angiographic volumes using deep learning. We discuss the problems of low execution speed and high memory requirements associated with full 3-D networks, high-class imbalance arising from the low percentage (<3%) of vessel voxels, and unavailability of accurately annotated 3-D training data-and offer solutions as the building blocks of DeepVesselNet. First, we formulate 2-D orthogonal cross-hair filters which make use of 3-D context information at a reduced computational burden. Second, we introduce a class balancing cross-entropy loss function with false-positive rate correction to handle the high-class imbalance and high false positive rate problems associated with existing loss functions. Finally, we generate a synthetic dataset using a computational angiogenesis model capable of simulating vascular tree growth under physiological constraints on local network structure and topology and use these data for transfer learning. We demonstrate the performance on a range of angiographic volumes at different spatial scales including clinical MRA data of the human brain, as well as CTA microscopy scans of the rat brain. Our results show that cross-hair filters achieve over 23% improvement in speed, lower memory footprint, lower network complexity which prevents overfitting and comparable accuracy that does not differ from full 3-D filters. Our class balancing metric is crucial for training the network, and transfer learning with synthetic data is an efficient, robust, and very generalizable approach leading to a network that excels in a variety of angiography segmentation tasks. We observe that sub-sampling and max pooling layers may lead to a drop in performance in tasks that involve voxel-sized structures. To this end, the DeepVesselNet architecture does not use any form of sub-sampling layer and works well for vessel segmentation, centerline prediction, and bifurcation detection. We make our synthetic training data publicly available, fostering future research, and serving as one of the first public datasets for brain vessel tree segmentation and analysis.

Machine learning analysis of whole mouse brain vasculature.

Tissue clearing methods enable the imaging of biological specimens without sectioning. However, reliable and scalable analysis of large imaging datasets in three dimensions remains a challenge. Here we developed a deep learning-based framework to quantify and analyze brain vasculature, named Vessel Segmentation & Analysis Pipeline (VesSAP). Our pipeline uses a convolutional neural network (CNN) with a transfer learning approach for segmentation and achieves human-level accuracy. By using VesSAP, we analyzed the vascular features of whole C57BL/6J, CD1 and BALB/c mouse brains at the micrometer scale after registering them to the Allen mouse brain atlas. We report evidence of secondary intracranial collateral vascularization in CD1 mice and find reduced vascularization of the brainstem in comparison to the cerebrum. Thus, VesSAP enables unbiased and scalable quantifications of the angioarchitecture of cleared mouse brains and yields biological insights into the vascular function of the brain.

Towards quantitative imaging biomarkers of tumor dissemination: A multi-scale parametric modeling of multiple myeloma.

The advent of medical imaging and automatic image analysis is bringing the full quantitative assessment of lesions and tumor burden at every clinical examination within reach. This opens avenues for the development and testing of functional disease models, as well as their use in the clinical practice for personalized medicine. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian statistical framework, based on mixed-effects models, to quantitatively test and learn functional disease models at different scales, on population longitudinal data. We also derive an effective mathematical model for the crossover between initially detected lesions and tumor dissemination, based on the Iwata-Kawasaki-Shigesada model. We finally propose to leverage this descriptive disease progression model into model-aware biomarkers for personalized risk-assessment, taking all available examinations and relevant covariates into account. As a use case, we study Multiple Myeloma, a disseminated plasma cell cancer, in which proper diagnostics is essential, to differentiate frequent precursor state without end-organ damage from the rapidly developing disease requiring therapy. After learning the best biological models for local lesion growth and global tumor burden evolution on clinical data, and computing corresponding population priors, we use individual model parameters as biomarkers, and can study them systematically for correlation with external covariates, such as sex or location of the lesion. On our cohort of 63 patients with smoldering Multiple Myeloma, we show that they perform substantially better than other radiological criteria, to predict progression into symptomatic Multiple Myeloma. Our study paves the way for modeling disease progression patterns for Multiple Myeloma, but also for other metastatic and disseminated tumor growth processes, and for analyzing large longitudinal image data sets acquired in oncological imaging. It shows the unprecedented potential of model-based biomarkers for better and more personalized treatment decisions and deserves being validated on larger cohorts to establish its role in clinical decision making.

Knowledge-Aided Convolutional Neural Network for Small Organ Segmentation.

Accurate and automatic organ segmentation is critical for computer-aided analysis towards clinical decision support and treatment planning. State-of-the-art approaches have achieved remarkable segmentation accuracy on large organs, such as the liver and kidneys. However, most of these methods do not perform well on small organs, such as the pancreas, gallbladder, and adrenal glands, especially when lacking sufficient training data. This paper presents an automatic approach for small organ segmentation with limited training data using two cascaded steps-localization and segmentation. The localization stage involves the extraction of the region of interest after the registration of images to a common template and during the segmentation stage, a voxel-wise label map of the extracted region of interest is obtained and then transformed back to the original space. In the localization step, we propose to utilize a graph-based groupwise image registration method to build the template for registration so as to minimize the potential bias and avoid getting a fuzzy template. More importantly, a novel knowledge-aided convolutional neural network is proposed to improve segmentation accuracy in the second stage. This proposed network is flexible and can combine the effort of both deep learning and traditional methods, consequently achieving better segmentation relative to either of individual methods. The ISBI 2015 VISCERAL challenge dataset is used to evaluate the presented approach. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms cutting-edge deep learning approaches, traditional forest-based approaches, and multi-atlas approaches in the segmentation of small organs.

Volumetry based biomarker speed of growth: Quantifying the change of total tumor volume in whole-body magnetic resonance imaging over time improves risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients.

The purpose of this study was to improve risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients, introducing new 3D-volumetry based imaging biomarkers derived from whole-body MRI. Two-hundred twenty whole-body MRIs from 63 patients with smoldering multiple myeloma were retrospectively analyzed and all focal lesions >5mm were manually segmented for volume quantification. The imaging biomarkers total tumor volume, speed of growth (development of the total tumor volume over time), number of focal lesions, development of the number of focal lesions over time and the recent imaging biomarker '>1 focal lesion' of the International Myeloma Working Group were compared, taking 2-year progression rate, sensitivity and false positive rate into account. Speed of growth, using a cutoff of 114mm3/month, was able to isolate a high-risk group with a 2-year progression rate of 82.5%. Additionally, it showed by far the highest sensitivity in this study and in comparison to other biomarkers in the literature, detecting 63.2% of patients who progress within 2 years. Furthermore, its false positive rate (8.7%) was much lower compared to the recent imaging biomarker '>1 focal lesion' of the International Myeloma Working Group. Therefore, speed of growth is the preferable imaging biomarker for risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients.