Mental Illness Diagnoses May Not Cause All Mental Symptoms: A Simulation Study for Major Depressive Episodes, Dysthymic Disorder, and Manic Episodes.

Objectives This study aims to understand the statistical significance of the associations between diagnoses and symptoms based on simulations that have been used to understand the interpretability of mental illness diagnoses. Methods The symptoms for the diagnosis of major depressive episodes, dysthymic disorder, and manic episodes were extracted from the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, Text Revision (DSM-IV-TR, American Psychiatric Association, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania). Without real-world symptom data, we simulated populations using various combinations of symptom prevalence and correlations. Assuming symptoms occurred with similar prevalence and correlations, for each combination of symptom prevalence (0.05, 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, and 0.7) and correlation (0, 0.1, 0.4, 0.7, and 0.9), 100 cohorts with 10,000 individuals were randomly created. Diagnoses were made according to the DSM-IV-TR criteria. The associations between the diagnoses and their input symptoms were quantified with odds ratios and correlation coefficients. P-values from 100 cohorts for each combination of symptom prevalence and correlation were summarized. Results Three mental illness diagnoses were not significantly correlated with their own symptoms in all simulations, particularly when symptoms were not correlated, except for the symptom in the major criteria of major depressive episodes or dysthymic disorder. The symptoms for the diagnosis of major depressive episodes and dysthymic disorder were significantly correlated with these two diagnoses in some simulations, assuming 0.1, 0.4, 0.7, or 0.9 symptom correlations, except for one symptom. The overlap in the input symptoms for the diagnosis of major depressive episodes and dysthymic disorder also leads to significant correlations between these two diagnoses, assuming 0.1, 0.4, 0.7, and 0.9 correlations between input symptoms. Manic episodes are not significantly associated with the input symptoms of major depressive episodes and dysthymic disorder. Conclusion There are challenges to establish the causation between psychiatric symptoms and mental illness diagnoses. There is insufficient prevalence and incidence data to show all psychiatric symptoms exist or can be observed in patients. The diagnostic accuracy of symptoms to detect a disease cause is far from perfect. Assuming the symptoms of three mood disorders may present in patients, three diagnoses are not significantly associated with all psychiatric symptoms used to diagnose them. The diagnostic criteria of the three diagnoses have not been designed to guarantee significant associations between symptoms and diagnoses. Because statistical associations are important for making causal inferences, there may be a lack of causation between diagnoses and symptoms. Previous research has identified factors that lead to insignificant associations between diagnoses and symptoms, including biases due to data processing and a lack of epidemiological evidence to support the design of mental illness diagnostic criteria.

The Upper Limits of Risk Ratios and Recommendations for Reporting Risk Ratios, Odds Ratios, and Rate Ratios.

Background Relative measures, including risk ratios (RRs) and odds ratios (ORs), are reported in many epidemiological studies. RRs represent how many times a condition is likely to develop when exposed to a risk factor. The upper limit of RRs is the multiplicative inverse of the baseline incidence. Ignoring the upper limits of RRs can lead to reporting exaggerated relative effect sizes. Objectives This study aims to demonstrate the importance of such upper limits for effect size reporting via equations, examples, and simulations and provide recommendations for the reporting of relative measures. Methods Equations to calculate RRs and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were listed. We performed simulations with 10,000 simulated subjects and three population variables: proportions at risk (0.05, 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, and 0.8), baseline incidence (0.05, 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, and 0.8), and RRs (0.5, 1.0, 5.0, 10.0, and 25.0). Subjects were randomly assigned with a risk based on the set of proportions-at-risk values. A disease occurred based on the baseline incidence among those not at risk. The incidence of those at risk was the product of the baseline incidence and the RRs. The 95% CIs of RRs were calculated according to Altman. Results The calculation of RR 95% CIs is not connected to the RR upper limits in equations. The RRs in the simulated populations at risk could reach the upper limits of RRs: multiplicative inverse of the baseline incidence. The upper limits to the derived RRs were around 1.25, 2, 3.3, 10, and 20, when the assumed baseline incidence rates were 0.8, 0.5, 0.3, 0.2, and 0.05, respectively. We demonstrated five scenarios in which the RR 95% CIs might exceed the upper limits. Conclusions Statistical significance does not imply the RR 95% CIs not exceeding the upper limits of RRs. When reporting RRs or ORs, the RR upper limits should be assessed. The rate ratio is also subject to a similar upper limit. In the literature, ORs tend to overestimate effect sizes. It is recommended to correct ORs that aim to approximate RRs assuming outcomes are rare. A reporting guide for relative measures, RRs, ORs, and rate ratios, is provided. Researchers are recommended to report whether the 95% CIs of relative measures, RRs, ORs, and rate ratios, overlap with the range of upper limits and discuss whether the relative measure estimates may exceed the upper limits.

Frailty does not cause all frail symptoms: United States Health and Retirement Study.

BACKGROUND: Frailty is associated with major health outcomes. However, the relationships between frailty and frailty symptoms haven't been well studied. This study aims to show the associations between frailty and frailty symptoms. METHODS: The Health and Retirement Study (HRS) is an ongoing longitudinal biannual survey in the United States. Three of the most used frailty diagnoses, defined by the Functional Domains Model, the Burden Model, and the Biologic Syndrome Model, were reproduced according to previous studies. The associations between frailty statuses and input symptoms were assessed using odds ratios and correlation coefficients. RESULTS: The sample sizes, mean ages, and frailty prevalence matched those reported in previous studies. Frailty statuses were weakly correlated with each other (coefficients = 0.19 to 0.38, p < 0.001 for all). There were 49 input symptoms identified by these three models. Frailty statuses defined by the three models were not significantly correlated with one or two symptoms defined by the same models (p > 0.05 for all). One to six symptoms defined by the other two models were not significantly correlated with each of the three frailty statuses (p > 0.05 for all). Frailty statuses were significantly correlated with their own bias variables (p < 0.05 for all). CONCLUSION: Frailty diagnoses lack significant correlations with some of their own frailty symptoms and some of the frailty symptoms defined by the other two models. This finding raises questions like whether the frailty symptoms lacking significant correlations with frailty statuses could be included to diagnose frailty and whether frailty exists and causes frailty symptoms.

Mortality burden and socioeconomic status in India.

BACKGROUND: The dimensions along which mortality is patterned in India remains unclear. We examined the specific contribution of social castes, household income, assets, and monthly per capita consumption to mortality differentials in India. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Cross-sectional data on 217,363 individuals from 41,554 households from the 2004-2005 India Human Development Survey was analyzed using multiple logistic regressions. Mortality differentials across social castes were attenuated after adjusting for household economic factors such as income and assets. Individuals living in the lowest income and assets quintiles had an increased risk of mortality with odds ratio (OR) of 1.66 (95% CI  =  1.23-2.24) in the bottom income quintile and OR of 2.94 (95% CI  =  1.66-5.22) in the bottom asset quintile. Counter-intuitively, individuals living in households with lowest monthly consumption per capita had significantly lower probability of death (OR  =  0.27, 95% CI  =  0.20-0.38). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality burden in India is largely patterned on economic dimensions as opposed to caste dimensions, though caste may play an important role in predicting economic opportunities.

Respiratory disease associated with solid biomass fuel exposure in rural women and children: systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies with varying associations between domestic use of solid biomass fuels (wood, dung, crop residue, charcoal) and respiratory diseases have been reported. OBJECTIVE: To present the current data systematically associating use of biomass fuels with respiratory outcomes in rural women and children. METHODS: Systematic searches were conducted in 13 electronic databases. Data were abstracted from original articles that satisfied selection criteria for meta-analyses. Publication bias and heterogeneity of samples were tested. Studies with common diagnoses were analysed using random-effect models. RESULTS: A total of 2717 studies were identified. Fifty-one studies were selected for data extraction and 25 studies were suitable for meta-analysis. The overall pooled ORs indicate significant associations with acute respiratory infection in children (OR 3.53, 95% CI 1.94 to 6.43), chronic bronchitis in women (OR 2.52, 95% CI 1.88 to 3.38) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in women (OR 2.40, 95% CI 1.47 to 3.93). In contrast, no significant association with asthma in children or women was noted. CONCLUSION: Biomass fuel exposure is associated with diverse respiratory diseases in rural populations. Concerted efforts in improving stove design and lowering exposure to smoke emission may reduce respiratory disease associated with biomass fuel exposure.