Pregnancy intention data completeness, quality and utility in population-based surveys: EN-INDEPTH study.

BACKGROUND: An estimated 40% of pregnancies globally are unintended. Measurement of pregnancy intention in low- and middle-income countries relies heavily on surveys, notably Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), yet few studies have evaluated survey questions. We examined questions for measuring pregnancy intention, which are already in the DHS, and additional questions and investigated associations with maternity care utilisation and adverse pregnancy outcomes. METHODS: The EN-INDEPTH study surveyed 69,176 women of reproductive age in five Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites in Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Ethiopia, Uganda and Bangladesh (2017-2018). We investigated responses to survey questions regarding pregnancy intention in two ways: (i) pregnancy-specific intention and (ii) desired-versus-actual family size. We assessed data completeness for each and level of agreement between the two questions, and with future fertility desire. We analysed associations between pregnancy intention and number and timing of antenatal care visits, place of delivery, and stillbirth, neonatal death and low birthweight. RESULTS: Missing data were <2% in all questions. Responses to pregnancy-specific questions were more consistent with future fertility desire than desired-versus-actual family size responses. Using the pregnancy-specific questions, 7.4% of women who reported their last pregnancy as unwanted reported wanting more children in the future, compared with 45.1% of women in the corresponding desired family size category. Women reporting unintended pregnancies were less likely to attend 4+ antenatal care visits (aOR 0.73, 95% CI 0.64-0.83), have their first visit during the first trimester (aOR 0.71, 95% CI 0.63-0.79), and report stillbirths (aOR 0.57, 95% CI 0.44-0.73) or neonatal deaths (aOR 0.79, 95% CI 0.64-0.96), compared with women reporting intended pregnancies. We found no associations for desired-versus-actual family size intention. CONCLUSIONS: We found the pregnancy-specific intention questions to be a much more reliable assessment of pregnancy intention than the desired-versus-actual family size questions, despite a reluctance to report pregnancies as unwanted rather than mistimed. The additional questions were useful and may complement current DHS questions, although these are not the only possibilities. As women with unintended pregnancies were more likely to miss timely and frequent antenatal care, implementation research is required to improve coverage and quality of care for those women.

Gestational age data completeness, quality and validity in population-based surveys: EN-INDEPTH study.

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth (gestational age (GA) <37 weeks) is the leading cause of child mortality worldwide. However, GA is rarely assessed in population-based surveys, the major data source in low/middle-income countries. We examined the performance of new questions to measure GA in household surveys, a subset of which had linked early pregnancy ultrasound GA data. METHODS: The EN-INDEPTH population-based survey of 69,176 women was undertaken (2017-2018) in five Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau and Uganda. We included questions regarding GA in months (GAm) for all women and GA in weeks (GAw) for a subset; we also asked if the baby was 'born before expected' to estimate preterm birth rates. Survey data were linked to surveillance data in two sites, and to ultrasound pregnancy dating at <24 weeks in one site. We assessed completeness and quality of reported GA. We examined the validity of estimated preterm birth rates by sensitivity and specificity, over/under-reporting of GAw in survey compared to ultrasound by multinomial logistic regression, and explored perceptions about GA and barriers and enablers to its reporting using focus group discussions (n = 29). RESULTS: GAm questions were almost universally answered, but heaping on 9 months resulted in underestimation of preterm birth rates. Preference for reporting GAw in even numbers was evident, resulting in heaping at 36 weeks; hence, over-estimating preterm birth rates, except in Matlab where the peak was at 38 weeks. Questions regarding 'born before expected' were answered but gave implausibly low preterm birth rates in most sites. Applying ultrasound as the gold standard in Matlab site, sensitivity of survey-GAw for detecting preterm birth (GAw <37) was 60% and specificity was 93%. Focus group findings suggest that women perceive GA to be important, but usually counted in months. Antenatal care attendance, women's education and health cards may improve reporting. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first published study assessing GA reporting in surveys, compared with the gold standard of ultrasound. Reporting GAw within 5 years' recall is feasible with high completeness, but accuracy is affected by heaping. Compared to ultrasound-GAw, results are reasonably specific, but sensitivity needs to be improved. We propose revised questions based on the study findings for further testing and validation in settings where pregnancy ultrasound data and/or last menstrual period dates/GA recorded in pregnancy are available. Specific training of interviewers is recommended.

Human resources and curricula content for early child development implementation: multicountry mixed methods evaluation.

OBJECTIVE: The WHO recommends responsive caregiving and early learning (RCEL) interventions to improve early child development (ECD), and to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals' vision of a world where all children thrive. Implementation of RCEL programmes in low and middle-income countries (LMIC) requires evidence to inform decisions about human resources and curricula content. We aimed to describe human resources and curricula content for implementation of RCEL projects across diverse LMICs, using data from the Grand Challenges Canada Saving Brains ECD portfolio. SETTING: We evaluated 32 RCEL projects across 17 LMICs on four continents. PARTICIPANTS: Overall, 2165 workers delivered ECD interventions to 25 909 families. INTERVENTION: Projects were either stand-alone RCEL or RCEL combined with health and nutrition, and/or safety and security. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES: We undertook a mixed methods evaluation of RCEL projects within the Saving Brains portfolio. Quantitative data were collected through standardised reporting tools. Qualitative data were collected from ECD experts and stakeholders and analysed using thematic content analysis, informed by literature review. RESULTS: Major themes regarding human resources included: worker characteristics, incentivisation, retention, training and supervision, and regarding curricula content: flexible adaptation of content and delivery, fidelity, and intervention duration and dosage. Lack of an agreed standard ECD package contributed to project heterogeneity. Incorporation of ECD into existing services may facilitate scale-up but overburdened workers plus potential reductions in service quality remain challenging. Supportive training and supervision, inducement, worker retention, dosage and delivery modality emerged as key implementation decisions. CONCLUSIONS: This mixed methods evaluation of a multicountry ECD portfolio identified themes for consideration by policymakers and programme leaders relevant to RCEL implementation in diverse LMICs. Larger studies, which also examine impact, including high-quality process and costing evaluations with comparable data, are required to further inform decisions for implementation of RCEL projects at national and regional scales.

National, regional, and worldwide estimates of low birthweight in 2015, with trends from 2000: a systematic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Low birthweight (LBW) of less than 2500 g is an important marker of maternal and fetal health, predicting mortality, stunting, and adult-onset chronic conditions. Global nutrition targets set at the World Health Assembly in 2012 include an ambitious 30% reduction in LBW prevalence between 2012 and 2025. Estimates to track progress towards this target are lacking; with this analysis, we aim to assist in setting a baseline against which to assess progress towards the achievement of the World Health Assembly targets. METHODS: We sought to identify all available LBW input data for livebirths for the years 2000-16. We considered population-based national or nationally representative datasets for inclusion if they contained information on birthweight or LBW prevalence for livebirths. A new method for survey adjustment was developed and used. For 57 countries with higher quality time-series data, we smoothed country-reported trends in birthweight data by use of B-spline regression. For all other countries, we estimated LBW prevalence and trends by use of a restricted maximum likelihood approach with country-level random effects. Uncertainty ranges were obtained through bootstrapping. Results were summed at the regional and worldwide level. FINDINGS: We collated 1447 country-years of birthweight data (281 million births) for 148 countries of 195 UN member states (47 countries had no data meeting inclusion criteria). The estimated worldwide LBW prevalence in 2015 was 14·6% (uncertainty range [UR] 12·4-17·1) compared with 17·5% (14·1-21·3) in 2000 (average annual reduction rate [AARR] 1·23%). In 2015, an estimated 20·5 million (UR 17·4-24·0 million) livebirths were LBW, 91% from low-and-middle income countries, mainly southern Asia (48%) and sub-Saharan Africa (24%). INTERPRETATION: Although these estimates suggest some progress in reducing LBW between 2000 and 2015, achieving the 2·74% AARR required between 2012 and 2025 to meet the global nutrition target will require more than doubling progress, involving both improved measurement and programme investments to address the causes of LBW throughout the lifecycle. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, The Children's Investment Fund Foundation, United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), and WHO.

Contextual design choices and partnerships for scaling early child development programmes.

Translating the Nurturing Care Framework and unprecedented global policy support for early child development (ECD) into action requires evidence-informed guidance about how to implement ECD programmes at national and regional scale. We completed a literature review and participatory mixed-method evaluation of projects in Saving Brains®, Grand Challenges Canada® funded ECD portfolio across 23 low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Using an adapted programme cycle, findings from evaluation related to partnerships and leadership, situational analyses, and design for scaling ECD were considered. 39 projects (5 'Transition to Scale' and 34 'Seed') were evaluated. 63% were delivered through health and 84% focused on Responsive Caregiving and Early Learning (RCEL). Multilevel partnerships, leadership and targeted situational analysis were crucial to design and adaptation. A theory of change approach to consider pathways to impact was useful for design, but practical situational analysis tools and local data to guide these processes were lacking. Several RCEL programmes, implemented within government services, had positive impacts on ECD outcomes and created more enabling caregiving environments. Engagement of informal and private sectors provided an alternative approach for reaching children where government services were sparse. Cost-effectiveness was infrequently measured. At small-scale RCEL interventions can be successfully adapted and implemented across diverse settings through processes which are responsive to situational analysis within a partnership model. Accelerating progress will require longitudinal evaluation of ECD interventions at much larger scale, including programmes targeting children with disabilities and humanitarian settings with further exploration of cost-effectiveness, critical content and human resources.

Counting outcomes, coverage and quality for early child development programmes.

Improved measurement in early child development (ECD) is a strategic focus of the WHO, UNICEF and World Bank Nurturing Care Framework. However, evidence-based approaches to monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of ECD projects in low-income and middle-income countries (LMIC) are lacking. The Grand Challenges Canada®-funded Saving Brains® ECD portfolio provides a unique opportunity to explore approaches to M&E of ECD programmes across diverse settings. Focused literature review and participatory mixed-method evaluation of the Saving Brains portfolio was undertaken using an adapted impact framework. Findings related to measurement of quality, coverage and outcomes for scaling ECD were considered. Thirty-nine ECD projects implemented in 23 LMIC were evaluated. Projects used a 'theory of change' based M&E approach to measure a range of inputs, outputs and outcomes. Over 29 projects measured cognitive, language, motor and socioemotional outcomes. 18 projects used developmental screening tools to measure outcomes, with a trade-off between feasibility and preferred practice. Environmental inputs such as the home environment were measured in 15 projects. Qualitative data reflected the importance of measurement of project quality and coverage, despite challenges measuring these constructs across contexts. Improved measurement of intervention quality and measurement of coverage, which requires definition of the numerator (ie, intervention) and denominator (ie, population in need/at risk), are needed for scaling ECD programmes. Innovation in outcome measurement, including intermediary outcome measures that are feasible and practical to measure in routine services, is also required, with disaggregation to better target interventions to those most in need and ensure that no child is left behind.

Accountability for funds for Nurturing Care: what can we measure?

BACKGROUND: Understanding donor, government and out-of-pocket funding for early child development (ECD) is important for tracking progress. We aimed to estimate a baseline for the WHO, UNICEF and World Bank Nurturing Care Framework (NCF) with a special focus on childhood disability. METHODS: To estimate development assistance spending, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development's Creditor Reporting System (OECD-CRS) database was searched for 2007-2016, using key words derived from domains of the NCF (good health, nutrition and growth, responsive caregiving, security and safety, and early learning), plus disability. Associated funds were analysed by domain, donor, recipient and region. Trends of ECD/NCF were compared with reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health (RMNCH) disbursements. To assess domestic or out-of-pocket expenditure for ECD, we searched electronic databases of indexed and grey literature. RESULTS: US$79.1 billion of development assistance were disbursed, mostly for health and nutrition (US$61.9 billion, 78% of total) and least for disability (US$0.7 billion, 2% of total). US$2.3 per child per year were disbursed for non-health ECD activities. Total development assistance for ECD increased by 121% between 2007 and 2016, an average increase of 8.3% annually. Per child disbursements increased more in Africa and Asia, while minimally in Latin America and the Caribbean and Oceania. We could not find comparable sources for domestic funding and out-of-pocket expenditure. CONCLUSIONS: Estimated international donor disbursements for ECD remain small compared with RMNCH. Limitations include inconsistent donor terminology in OECD data. Increased investment will be required in the poorest countries and for childhood disability to ensure that progress is equitable.