Excess hospitalizations and in-hospital mortality associated with seasonal influenza in Italy: a 11-year retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Influenza and flu-like syndromes are difficult to monitor because the symptoms are not specific, laboratory tests are not routinely performed, and diagnosis codes are often lacking or incompletely registered in medical records. This may result in an underestimation of hospital admissions, associated costs, and in-hospital mortality. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate the public health and economic burden of hospitalisations associated with influenza in Italy, at the national and regional levels. METHODS: This 11-year retrospective study included patients admitted to hospitals for influenza or diagnoses associated with influenza (including respiratory and cardiocirculatory conditions) from 2008/09 to 2018/19. Data on hospitalisations were extracted from the Italian Hospital Discharge Records. Information on weekly influenza-like syndrome incidence and weekly average temperature were used to estimate the burden of influenza in terms of hospital admissions in every Italian region and for different age groups by applying a negative binomial model. The model was also applied to estimate in-hospital mortality and the total costs of influenza and influenza-like hospital admissions. RESULTS: Over the study period, in addition to 3,970 average seasonal admissions coded as influenza, we estimated an average of 21,500 excess hospitalization associated with influenza per season, which corresponds to 36.4 cases per 100,000. Most of the excess hospitalisations concerned older individuals (> 65 years) and children (0-4 years) with 86 and 125 cases per 100,000, respectively. Large variations were observed across regions. Overall, the total estimated hospital burden associated with influenza (including respiratory and cardiocirculatory conditions) was approximately €123 m per year. While the in-hospital mortality for admissions with a primary diagnosis of influenza was very low (~ 150 cases per season), cases increased dramatically for primary diagnoses of influenza and pneumonia (about 9,500 cases per season). The average seasonal in-hospital deaths attributable to influenza were equal to 2,775 cases. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest a remarkable underestimation of the burden of influenza, mostly in the older population but not neglectable in younger individuals. Our results may aid the management of current and future flu seasons and should be used for policy making (e.g., vaccine strategies) and operation management choices (e.g., planning and staffing beds during influenza peaks). Overall, the present study supports the need for increased testing for influenza in Italy to tackle the current underestimation of influenza burden.

Reducing the burden of travel and environmental impact through decentralization of cancer care.

Life expectancy, quality of life and satisfaction of oncologic patients highly depend on access to adequate specialized services, that consider their conditions in a holistic way. The present study aims to evaluate the introduction of oncology services in an outpatient setting in a mountain village in Northern Italy. The initiative is evaluated using the three pillars of sustainability (social, economic and environmental) as dimensions that are often overlooked by healthcare policy makers. Using micro data on 18,625 interventions, we estimate the number of kilometers saved by patients (reduction of "travel burden" as indicator of social sustainability), the additional travel costs for the NHS (indicator of economic sustainability) and the implied reduction of CO2 emissions (indicator of environmental sustainability). Over the period July 2016-2021, the decentralized health center delivered 2,292 interventions saving 218,566 km for a corresponding value of €131,140. The additional costs for the NHS was €26,152. The reduction of CO2 emissions was 32.37 Tons (€5,989). Overall, the socio-economic benefit of reducing travel of care for the patients residing in this remote valley was €110,976. This study adds original understanding of the benefits of decentralizing oncologic care and shows its operational feasibility conditions. Given the modest number of similar projects, it provides evidence to policy makers and, especially, managers who are faced with the challenge to implement the decentralization of specialized services.

A participatory process to design an app to improve adherence to anti-osteoporotic therapies: A development and usability study.

Objective: The aim of the study was to develop an app to improve patients' adherence to therapy for osteoporosis and to test its usability. Methods: In Phase I, the app functions needed to improve medication adherence were identified through a focus group with six patients with osteoporosis and a joint interview with two bone specialists. The app prototype was then developed (Phase II) and refined after its feasibility testing (Phase III) for 13-25 days by eight patients. Finally, the app underwent usability testing (Phase IV) for 6 months by nine other patients. The mHealth App Usability Questionnaire (MAUQ) was used to collect the assessment of the app by the 17 patients. Results: The final version of the app provided information on osteoporosis, allowed patients to contact the bone specialist for an additional consultation, and generated a reminder for taking medications accompanied by feedback on adherence. The assessment of the app was positive but evaluations differed between the feasibility and usability testing, with the former displaying a significantly (p ≤ .05) better assessment across all MAUQ items. Conclusions: In this study, we tested an app for improving adherence to medical therapies in patients with osteoporosis. The usability testing revealed a lower "patient-centered" performance of the app as compared to that observed during the feasibility phase. Future developments of the study include increasing the testing cohort and adding a technical support during the usability testing.

Patient characteristics associated with the acceptability of teleconsultation: a retrospective study of osteoporotic patients post-COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, teleconsultations (TCs) have become common practice for many chronic conditions, including osteoporosis. While satisfaction with TCs among patients increases in times of emergency, we have little knowledge of whether the acceptability of TCs persists once in-person visits return to being a feasible and safe option. In this study, we assess the acceptability of TCs across five dimensions for osteoporosis care among patients who started or continued with TCs after the COVID-19 pandemic had waned. We then explore the patient characteristics associated with these perceptions. METHODS: Between January and April 2022, 80 osteoporotic patients treated at the Humanitas Hospital in Milan, Italy, were recruited to answer an online questionnaire about the acceptability of TCs for their care. The acceptability of TCs was measured using a modified version of the Service User Technology Acceptability Questionnaire (SUTAQ), which identifies five domains of acceptability: perceived benefits, satisfaction, substitution, privacy and discomfort, and care personnel concerns. Multivariable ordinary least squares (OLS) linear regression analysis was performed to assess which patient characteristics in terms of demographics, socio-economic conditions, digital skills, social support, clinical characteristics and pattern of TC use were correlated with the five domains of acceptability measured through the SUTAQ. RESULTS: The degree of acceptability of TCs was overall good across the 80 respondents and the five domains. Some heterogeneity in perceptions emerged with respect to TCs substituting for in-person visits, negatively impacting continuity of care and reducing the length of consultations. For the most part, acceptability was not affected by patient characteristics with a few exceptions related to treatment time and familiarity with the TC service modality (i.e., length of osteoporosis treatment and number of TCs experienced by the patient). CONCLUSIONS: TCs appear to be an acceptable option for osteoporosis care in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study suggests that other characteristics besides age, digital skills and social support, which are traditionally relevant to TC acceptability, should be taken into account in order to better target this care delivery modality.

Spillover effects and other determinants of medical device uptake in the presence of a medical guideline: An analysis of drug-eluting stents in Germany and Italy.

We investigated the role of spillover effects among hospitals in the diffusion of drug-eluting stents (DES) in Germany and Italy during a period in which the relevant medical guideline clearly recommended their use over bare-metal stents. We used administrative data of hospitalized patients treated with ST-elevation myocardial infarction from 2012 to 2016 to estimate spatial panel models allowing for global spillover effects. We used an inverse-distance weights matrix to capture the geographical proximity between neighboring hospitals and assigned a lower weight to more distant neighbors. For both countries, we found significant positive spatial autocorrelation in most years based on the global Moran's I test, and a significant, positive spatial lag parameter across model specifications, indicating positive spillover effects among neighboring hospitals. We found that private for-profit hospital ownership and hospital competition in Germany and the number of inpatient cases with circulatory system diseases in Italy were other significant determinants of DES adoption. Our results underline the importance of spillover effects among peers for the diffusion of medical devices even in the presence of a positive guideline recommendation. Policymakers might therefore consider promoting various forms of exchange and collaboration among medical staff and hospitals to ensure the appropriate use of medical technologies.

Real-world evidence in health technology assessment of high-risk medical devices: Fit for purpose?

Health technology assessment (HTA) of medical devices (MDs) increasingly rely on real-world evidence (RWE). The aim of this study was to evaluate the type and the quality of the evidence used to assess the (cost-)effectiveness of high risk MDs (Class III) by HTA agencies in Europe (four European HTA agencies and EUnetHTA), with particular focus on RWE. Data were extracted from HTA reports on the type of evidence demonstrating (cost-)effectiveness, and the quality of observational studies of comparative effectiveness using the Good Research for Comparative Effectiveness principles. 25 HTA reports were included that incorporated 28 observational studies of comparative effectiveness. Half of the studies (46%) took important confounding and/or effect modifying variables into account in the design and/or analyses. The most common way of including confounders and/or effect modifiers was through multivariable regression analysis. Other methods, such as propensity score matching, were rarely employed. Furthermore, meaningful analyses to test key assumptions were largely omitted. Resulting recommendations from HTA agencies on MDs is therefore (partially) based on evidence which is riddled with uncertainty. Considering the increasing importance of RWE it is important that the quality of observational studies of comparative effectiveness are systematically assessed when used in decision-making.

How real can we get in generating real world evidence? Exploring the opportunities of routinely collected administrative data for evaluation of medical devices.

Real-world data are considered a potentially valuable source of evidence for assessing medical technologies in clinical practice, but their widespread use is hampered by numerous challenges. Using the case of coronary stents in Italy, we investigate the potential of administrative databases for estimating costs and health outcomes associated with the use of medical devices in real world conditions. An administrative dataset was created ad hoc by merging hospital records from patients admitted between 2013 and 2019 for stent implantations with ambulatory records, pharmaceutical use data and vital statistics. Health outcomes were multifold: all-cause and cardiac mortality and myocardial infarction, within 30 days, 1, 2, 5 years. Costs were estimated from the National Health System perspective. We used multivariable Cox models and propensity score (PS) methods (PS matching; stratification on PS; inverse probability of treatment weighting using PS; PS adjustment). 257,907 coronary stents were implanted in 113,912 patients. For all health outcomes and follow-up times, and across all methods, patients receiving drug-eluting stents (DES) presented lower risk. For all-cause mortality, the DES patient advantage over bare-metal stent (BMS) patients declined over time but remained significant even at 5 years. For myocardial infarction, results remained quite stable. The DES group presented lower cumulative total costs (ranging from 3264 to 2363 Euros less depending on methods). Our results confirm the consolidated evidence of the benefits of DES compared to BMS. The consistency of results across methods suggests internal validity of the study, while highlighting strengths and limitations of each depending on research context. Administrative data yield great potential to perform comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness analysis of medical devices provided certain conditions are met.

Variation in the utilization of medical devices across Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands: A multilevel approach.

Variation in healthcare utilization has been discussed extensively, with many studies showing that variation exists, but fewer studies investigating the underlying factors. In our study, we used a logistic multilevel-model at the patient, hospital, and regional levels to investigate (i) the levels to which variation could be attributed and (ii) the hospital and regional factors associated with treatment decisions. To do so, we used hospital discharge records for the years 2012-2016 in Germany and Italy and for 2014-2016 in the Netherlands combined with hospital and regional characteristics in nine case studies. We used a theoretical framework to categorize these case studies into effective, preference-sensitive, and supply-sensitive care. Our results suggest that most variation in the treatment decision can be attributed to the hospital level (e.g., case volume), whereas only a minor part is explained by regional characteristics. Italy had the highest share attributable to the regional level, whereas the Netherlands had the lowest. We observed less variation for procedures in the effective-care category compared to the preference- and supply-sensitive categories. Although our results were heterogeneous, we identified patterns in line with the theoretical framework for treatment categories, underlining the need to address variation differently depending on the category in question.

Depression deterioration of older adults during the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in Europe.

RATIONALE: Determining who is particularly vulnerable to mental health deterioration during the COVID-19 pandemic is essential when designing and targeting interventions to mitigate the adverse psychological impacts of the outbreak. Older people have appeared to be less exposed to mental health deterioration compared with younger individuals, but most exposed to the risk of severe illness and death from the virus, as well as less equipped to use technologies for coping with lockdown measures. OBJECTIVE: Amongst the old population, we aim at determining how depressive symptoms have changed during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and identifying individual risk factors associated with changes in reporting depression. We are particularly interested in exploring the role of pre-existing mental health problems and evaluating gender differences. METHOD: Data come from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, in particular from the first COVID-19 survey administered in summer 2020. Logistic models are estimated and Average Marginal Effects computed to take the degree of individual unobserved heterogeneity into account comparing point estimates across samples. Multiple Imputation (implemented through Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations) is used to replace missing data. Statistical power of the effect sizes is estimated by a simulation approach. RESULTS: Pre-existing mental health problems, a diagnosis of affective/emotional disorders, a recent diagnosis of a major illness, and (only for men) job loss during the first wave of the outbreak are the most important risk factors. Statistical differences between genders emerge, with women experiencing higher levels of depression and greater worsening of mental health than men. CONCLUSIONS: To identify people at greater risk of depression deterioration during an outbreak it is very important to consider their pre-existing mental and general health, distinguishing severity level. On population level, it is also crucial to evaluate depression disorders separately by gender.

Older Adults in the United States Have Worse Cardiometabolic Health Compared to England.

Explanations for lagging life expectancy in the United States compared to other high-income countries have focused largely on "deaths of despair," but attention has also shifted to the role of stalling improvements in cardiovascular disease and the obesity epidemic. Using harmonized data from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study and English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, we assess differences in self-reported and objective measures of health, among older adults in the United States and England and explore whether the differences in body mass index (BMI) documented between the United States and England explain the U.S. disadvantage. Older adults in the United States have a much higher prevalence of diabetes, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high inflammation (C-reactive protein) compared to English adults. While the distribution of BMI is shifted to the right in the United States with more people falling into extreme obesity categories, these differences do not explain the cross-country differences in measured biological risk. We conclude by considering how country differences in health may have affected the burden of coronavirus disease 2019 mortality in both countries.

Patient, hospital and country-level risk factors of all-cause mortality among patients with chronic heart failure: Prospective international cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although many studies have described patient-level risk factors for outcomes in heart failure (HF), health care structural determinants remain largely unexplored. This research reports patient-, hospital- and country-level characteristics associated with 1-year all-cause mortality among patients with chronic HF, and investigates geographic and hospital variation in mortality. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We included 9,277 patients with chronic HF enrolled between May 2011 and November 2017 in the prospective cohort study European Society of Cardiology Heart Failure Long Term registry across 142 hospitals, located in 22 countries. Mean age of the selected outpatients was 65 years (sd 13.2) and 28% were female. The all-cause 1-year mortality rate per 100 person-years was 7.1 (95% confidence interval (CI) 6.6-7.7), and varied between countries (median 6.8, IQR 5.6-11.2) and hospitals (median 7.8, IQR 5.2-12.4). Mortality was associated with age (incidence rate ratio 1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.04), diabetes mellitus (1.37, 1.15-1.63), peripheral artery disease (1.56, 1.27-1.92), New York Heart Association class III/IV (1.91, 1.60-2.30), treatment with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor antagonists (0.71, 0.57-0.87) and HF clinic (0.64, 0.46-0.89). No other hospital-level characteristics, and no country-level healthcare characteristics were associated with 1-year mortality, with case-mix standardised variance between countries being very low (1.83e-06) and higher for hospitals (0.372). CONCLUSIONS: All-cause mortality at 1 year among outpatients with chronic HF varies between countries and hospitals, and is associated with patient characteristics and the availability of hospital HF clinics. After full adjustment for clinical, hospital and country variables, between-country variance was negligible while between-hospital variance was evident.

Do existing real-world data sources generate suitable evidence for the HTA of medical devices in Europe? Mapping and critical appraisal.

AIM: Technological and computational advancements offer new tools for the collection and analysis of real-world data (RWD). Considering the substantial effort and resources devoted to collecting RWD, a greater return would be achieved if real-world evidence (RWE) was effectively used to support Health Technology Assessment (HTA) and decision making on medical technologies. A useful question is: To what extent are RWD suitable for generating RWE? METHODS: We mapped existing RWD sources in Europe for three case studies: hip and knee arthroplasty, transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) and mitral valve repair (TMVR), and robotic surgery procedures. We provided a comprehensive assessment of their content and appropriateness for conducting the HTA of medical devices. The identification of RWD sources was performed combining a systematic search on PubMed with gray literature scoping, covering fifteen European countries. RESULTS: We identified seventy-one RWD sources on arthroplasties; ninety-five on TAVI and TMVR; and seventy-seven on robotic procedures. The number, content, and integrity of the sources varied dramatically across countries. Most sources included at least one health outcome (97.5%), with mortality and rehospitalization/reoperation the most common; 80% of sources included resource outcomes, with length of stay the most common, and comparators were available in almost 70% of sources. CONCLUSIONS: RWD sources bear the potential for the HTA of medical devices. The main challenges are data accessibility, a lack of standardization of health and economic outcomes, and inadequate comparators. These findings are crucial to enabling the incorporation of RWD into decision making and represent a readily available tool for getting acquainted with existing information sources.

Missing at random assumption made more plausible: evidence from the 1958 British birth cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Non-response is unavoidable in longitudinal surveys. The consequences are lower statistical power and the potential for bias. We implemented a systematic data-driven approach to identify predictors of non-response in the National Child Development Study (NCDS; 1958 British birth cohort). Such variables can help make the missing at random assumption more plausible, which has implications for the handling of missing data STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We identified predictors of non-response using data from the 11 sweeps (birth to age 55) of the NCDS (n = 17,415), employing parametric regressions and the LASSO for variable selection. RESULTS: Disadvantaged socio-economic background in childhood, worse mental health and lower cognitive ability in early life, and lack of civic and social participation in adulthood were consistently associated with non-response. Using this information, along with other data from NCDS, we were able to replicate the "population distribution" of educational attainment and marital status (derived from external data), and the original distributions of key early life characteristics. CONCLUSION: The identified predictors of non-response have the potential to improve the plausibility of the missing at random assumption. They can be straightforwardly used as "auxiliary variables" in analyses with principled methods to reduce bias due to missing data.

Socioeconomic inequalities across life and premature mortality from 1971 to 2016: findings from three British birth cohorts born in 1946, 1958 and 1970.

INTRODUCTION: Disadvantaged socioeconomic position (SEP) in early and adult life has been repeatedly associated with premature mortality. However, it is unclear whether these inequalities differ across time, nor if they are consistent across different SEP indicators. METHODS: British birth cohorts born in 1946, 1958 and 1970 were used, and multiple SEP indicators in early and adult life were examined. Deaths were identified via national statistics or notifications. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate associations between ridit scored SEP indicators and all-cause mortality risk-from 26 to 43 years (n=40 784), 26 to 58 years (n=35 431) and 26 to 70 years (n=5353). RESULTS: More disadvantaged SEP was associated with higher mortality risk-magnitudes of association were similar across cohort and each SEP indicator. For example, HRs (95% CI) from 26 to 43 years comparing lowest to highest paternal social class were 2.74 (1.02 to 7.32) in 1946c, 1.66 (1.03 to 2.69) in 1958c, and 1.94 (1.20 to 3.15) in 1970c. Paternal social class, adult social class and housing tenure were each independently associated with mortality risk. CONCLUSIONS: Socioeconomic circumstances in early and adult life show persisting associations with premature mortality from 1971 to 2016, reaffirming the need to address socioeconomic factors across life to reduce inequalities in survival to older age.

Inequalities in avoidable hospitalisation in large urban areas: retrospective observational study in the metropolitan area of Milan.

OBJECTIVE: Significant inequalities in access to healthcare system exist between residents of world megacities, even if they have different healthcare systems. The aim of this study was to estimate avoidable hospitalisations in the metropolitan area of Milan (Italy) and explore inequalities in access to healthcare between patients and across their areas of residence. DESIGN: Retrospective observational study. SETTING: Public and accredited private hospitals in the metropolitan area of Milan. Data obtained from the hospital discharge database of the Italian Health Ministry. PARTICIPANTS: 472 579 patients hospitalised for ambulatory care sensitive conditions and resident in the metropolitan area of Milan from 2005 to 2016. OUTCOME MEASURE: Age-adjusted rates of avoidable hospitalisations; OR for hospital admissions with ambulatory care sensitive conditions. METHODS: Age-adjusted rates of avoidable hospitalisations in the metropolitan area of Milan were estimated from 2005 to 2016 using direct standardisation. For the hospitalised population, multilevel logistic regression model with patient random effects was used to identify patients, hospitals and municipalities' characteristics associated with risk of avoidable hospitalisation in the period 2012-2016. RESULTS: The rate of avoidable hospitalisation in Milan fell steadily between 2005 and 2016 from 16.6 to 10.5 per 1000. Among the hospitalised population, the odds of being hospitalised with an ambulatory care sensitive condition was higher for male (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.36 to 1.48), older (OR 1.012, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.014), low-educated (elementary school vs degree OR 4.23, 95% CI 3.72 to 4.81) and single (vs married OR 2.08, 95% CI 2.01 to 2.16) patients with comorbidities (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.38 to 1.56); avoidable admissions were more frequent in public non-teaching hospitals while municipality's characteristics did not appear to be correlated with hospitalisation for ambulatory care sensitive conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The health system in metropolitan Milan has experienced a reduction in avoidable hospitalisations between 2005 and 2016, quite homogeneously across its 134 municipalities. The study design allowed to explore inequalities among the hospitalised population for which we found specific sociodemographic disadvantages.

Do children's expectations about future physical activity predict their physical activity in adulthood?

BACKGROUND: Much of the population fails to meet recommended physical activity (PA) levels, but there remains considerable individual variation. By understanding drivers of different trajectories, interventions can be better targeted and more effective. One such driver may be a person's physical activity identity (PAI)-the extent to which a person perceives PA as central to who they are. METHODS: Using survey information and a unique body of essays written at age 11 from the National Child Development Study (N = 10 500), essays mentioning PA were automatically identified using the machine learning technique support vector classification and PA trajectories were estimated using latent class analysis. Analyses tested the extent to which childhood PAI correlated with activity levels from age 23 through 55 and with trajectories across adulthood. RESULTS: 42.2% of males and 33.5% of females mentioned PA in their essays, describing active and/or passive engagement. Active PAI in childhood was correlated with higher levels of activity for men but not women, and was correlated with consistently active PA trajectories for both genders. Passive PAI was not related to PA for either gender. CONCLUSIONS: This study offers a novel approach for analysing large qualitative datasets to assess identity and behaviours. Findings suggest that at as young as 11 years old, the way a young person conceptualizes activity as part of their identity has a lasting association with behaviour. Still, an active identity may require a supportive sociocultural context to manifest in subsequent behaviour.

Living longer but not necessarily healthier: The joint progress of health and mortality in the working-age population of England.

Despite improvements in life expectancy, there is uncertainty on whether the increase in years of healthy life expectancy has kept pace. In this paper we explore whether there is empirical support for the expansion of morbidity hypothesis in the population aged 25-64 living in England. Nationally representative cohorts born between 1945 and 1980 are constructed from repeated annual cross-sections of the Health Survey for England, 1991-2014. Later-born cohorts at a given age have the same or higher prevalence of self-reported bad general health and long-term illness, self-reported high blood pressure (in men), self-reported and objectively-measured diabetes, circulatory illnesses, clinical hypertension, and overweight BMI. We also find that healthy life expectancies (in the sense of absence of each of these problems) at age 25 have increased at a slower pace than life expectancy between 1993 and 2013. Our findings lend support to the expansion of morbidity hypothesis and point to increased future demand for specific healthcare services at younger ages.

The impact of maternal employment on children's weight: Evidence from the UK.

Previous research shows that maternal employment is associated with higher children's body mass index (BMI). Using a large UK longitudinal birth cohort study of almost 20,000 children, we examine the effect of maternal employment during childhood (to age 14) on children's weight. We address the endogeneity of maternal employment by estimating household fixed effects models. We find that maternal employment has a positive effect on children's BMI and therefore on excess weight, and this is particularly the case for single mothers. We investigate potential pathways, including children's sedentary behavior and healthy eating behaviors, and find evidence of more sedentary behavior and poorer eating habits amongst children whose mothers are in employment. This is consistent with higher BMI levels amongst these children.

Levels of disability in the older population of England: Comparing binary and ordinal classifications.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies suggest the importance of distinguishing severity levels of disability. Nevertheless, there is not yet a consensus with regards to an optimal classification. OBJECTIVE: Our study seeks to advance the existing binary definitions towards categorical/ordinal manifestations of disability. METHODS: We define disability according to the WHO's International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) using data collected at the baseline wave of the English Longitudinal Study of Aging, a longitudinal study of the non-institutionalized population, living in England. First, we identify cut-off points in the continuous disability score derived from ICF to distinguish disabled from no-disabled participants. Then, we fit latent class models to the same data to find the optimal number of disability classes according to: (i) model fit indicators; (ii) estimated probabilities of each disability item; (iii) association of the predicted disability classes with observed health and mortality. RESULTS: According to the binary classification criteria, about 32% of both men and women are classified disabled. No optimal number of classes emerged from the latent class models according to model fit indicators. However, the other two criteria suggest that the best-fitting model of disability severity has four classes. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings contribute to the debate on the usefulness and relevance of adopting a finer categorization of disability, by showing that binary indicators of disability averaged the burden of disability and masked the very strong effect experienced by individuals having severe disability, and were not informative for low levels of disability.

Disability and all-cause mortality in the older population: evidence from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

Despite the vast body of literature studying disability and mortality, evidence to support their association is scarce. This work investigates the role of disability in explaining all-cause mortality among individuals aged 50+ who participated in the English Longitudinal Study of Aging. The aim is to explain the gender paradox in health and mortality by analysing whether the association of disability with mortality differs between women and men. Disability was conceived following the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF), proposed by the WHO, that conceptualizes disability as a combination of three components: impairment, activity limitation and participation restriction. Latent variable models were used to identify domain-specific factors and general disability. The association of the latter with mortality up to 10 years after enrolment was estimated using discrete-time survival analysis. Our work confirms the validity of the ICF framework and finds that disability is strongly associated with mortality, with a time-varying effect among men, and a smaller constant effect for women. Adjusting for demographic, socioeconomic and behavioural factors attenuated the association for both sexes, but overall the effects remained high and significant. These findings confirm the existence of gender paradox by showing that, when affected by disability, women survive longer than men, although if men survive the first years they appear to become more resilient to disability. Sensitivity analyses suggested that the gender paradox cannot be solely explained by gender-specific health conditions: there must be other mechanisms acting within the pathway between disability and mortality that need to be explored.