Movement of juvenile migratory birds from settlement to adulthood across the non-breeding range.

Among migratory vertebrates, high levels of fidelity to non-breeding sites during adulthood are common. If occupied sites vary in quality, strong site fidelity can have profound consequences for individual fitness and population demography. Given the prevalence of adult site fidelity, the regions of the non-breeding range to which juveniles first migrate, and the scale of any subsequent movements, are likely to be pivotal in shaping distributions and demographic processes across population ranges. However, inherent difficulties in tracking migratory individuals through early life mean that opportunities to quantify juvenile settlement and movements across non-breeding ranges, and the mechanisms involved, are extremely rare. Through long-term, range-wide resightings of hundreds of colour-marked individuals from their first migration to adulthood and the application of state-space models, we quantify levels of juvenile and adult regional-scale movements and distances at different life stages across the whole non-breeding distribution range in a migratory shorebird, the Black-tailed Godwit (Limosa limosa islandica). We show that the probability of individuals changing non-breeding regions (seven historical wintering regions spanning the Western Europe range) at all ages is very low (mean movement probability = 10.9% from first to subsequent winter, and 8.3% from first adult winter to later winters). Movement between regions was also low between autumn and winter of the same year for both juveniles (mean movement probability = 17.0%) and adults (10.4%). The great majority of non-breeding movements from the first autumn to adulthood were within regions and less than 100 km. The scarcity of regional-scale non-breeding movements from the first autumn to adulthood means that the factors influencing where juveniles settle will be key determinants of non-breeding distributions and of the rate and direction of changes in distributions.

Low fitness at low latitudes: Wintering in the tropics increases migratory delays and mortality rates in an Arctic breeding shorebird.

Evolutionary theories of seasonal migration generally assume that the costs of longer migrations are balanced by benefits at the non-breeding destinations. We tested, and rejected, the null hypothesis of equal survival and timing of spring migration for High Arctic breeding sanderling Calidris alba using six and eight winter destinations between 55°N and 25°S, respectively. Annual apparent survival was considerably lower for adult birds wintering in tropical West Africa (Mauritania: 0.74 and Ghana: 0.75) than in three European sites (0.84, 0.84 and 0.87) and in subtropical Namibia (0.85). Moreover, compared with adults, second calendar-year sanderlings in the tropics, but not in Europe, often refrained from migrating north during the first possible breeding season. During northward migration, tropical-wintering sanderlings occurred at their final staging site in Iceland 5-15 days later than birds wintering further north or south. Namibia-wintering sanderlings tracked with solar geolocators only staged in West Africa during southward migration. The low annual survival, the later age of first northward migration and the later passage through Iceland during northward migration of tropical-wintering sanderlings, in addition to the skipping of this area during northward but not southward migration by Namibia-wintering sanderlings, all suggest they face issues during the late non-breeding season in West Africa. Migrating sanderlings defy long distances but may end up in winter areas with poor fitness prospects. We suggest that ecological conditions in tropical West Africa make the fuelling prior to northward departure problematic.

Linking warming effects on phenology, demography, and range expansion in a migratory bird population.

Phenological changes in response to climate change have been recorded in many taxa, but the population-level consequences of these changes are largely unknown. If phenological change influences demography, it may underpin the changes in range size and distribution that have been associated with climate change in many species. Over the last century, Icelandic black-tailed godwits (Limosa limosa islandica) have increased 10-fold in numbers, and their breeding range has expanded throughout lowland Iceland, but the environmental and demographic drivers of this expansion remain unknown. Here, we explore the potential for climate-driven shifts in phenology to influence demography and range expansion. In warmer springs, Icelandic black-tailed godwits lay their clutches earlier, resulting in advances in hatching dates in those years. Early hatching is beneficial as population-wide tracking of marked individuals shows that chick recruitment to the adult population is greater for early hatched individuals. Throughout the last century, this population has expanded into progressively colder breeding areas in which hatch dates are later, but temperatures have increased throughout Iceland since the 1960s. Using these established relationships between temperature, hatching dates and recruitment, we show that these warming trends have the potential to have fueled substantial increases in recruitment throughout Iceland, and thus to have contributed to local population growth and expansion across the breeding range. The demographic consequences of temperature-mediated phenological changes, such as the advances in lay dates and increased recruitment associated with early hatching reported here, may therefore be key processes in driving population size and range changes in response to climate change.

Influence of age and sex on winter site fidelity of sanderlings Calidris alba.

Many migratory bird species show high levels of site fidelity to their wintering sites, which confers advantages due to prior knowledge, but may also limit the ability of the individual to move away from degrading sites or to detect alternative foraging opportunities. Winter site fidelity often varies among age groups, but sexual differences have seldom been recorded in birds. We studied a population of individually colour-marked sanderlings wintering in and around the Tejo estuary, a large estuarine wetland on the western coast of Portugal. For 160 individuals, sighted a total of 1,249 times between November 2009 and March 2013, we calculated the probability that they moved among five distinct wintering sites and how this probability is affected by distance between them. To compare site fidelity among age classes and sexes, as well as within the same winter and over multiple winters, we used a Site Fidelity Index (SFI). Birds were sexed using a discriminant function based on biometrics of a large set of molecularly sexed sanderlings (n = 990). The vast majority of birds were observed at one site only, and the probability of the few detected movements between sites was negatively correlated with the distance among each pair of sites. Hardly any movements were recorded over more than 15 km, suggesting small home ranges. SFI values indicated that juveniles were less site-faithful than adults which may reflect the accumulated knowledge and/or dominance of older animals. Among adults, females were significantly less site faithful than males. A sexual difference in winter site fidelity is unusual in shorebirds. SFI values show site-faithfulness is lower when multiple winters were considered, and most birds seem to chose a wintering site early in the season and use that site throughout the winter. Sanderlings show a very limited tendency to explore alternative wintering options, which might have implications for their survival when facing habitat change or loss (e.g., like severe beach erosion as can be the case at one of the study sites).

Why is timing of bird migration advancing when individuals are not?

Recent advances in spring arrival dates have been reported in many migratory species but the mechanism driving these advances is unknown. As population declines are most widely reported in species that are not advancing migration, there is an urgent need to identify the mechanisms facilitating and constraining these advances. Individual plasticity in timing of migration in response to changing climatic conditions is commonly proposed to drive these advances but plasticity in individual migratory timings is rarely observed. For a shorebird population that has significantly advanced migration in recent decades, we show that individual arrival dates are highly consistent between years, but that the arrival dates of new recruits to the population are significantly earlier now than in previous years. Several mechanisms could drive advances in recruit arrival, none of which require individual plasticity or rapid evolution of migration timings. In particular, advances in nest-laying dates could result in advanced recruit arrival, if benefits of early hatching facilitate early subsequent spring migration. This mechanism could also explain why arrival dates of short-distance migrants, which generally return to breeding sites earlier and have greater scope for advance laying, are advancing more rapidly than long-distance migrants.

Sex-biases in distribution and resource use at different spatial scales in a migratory shorebird.

In migratory species, sexual size dimorphism can mean differing energetic requirements for males and females. Differences in the costs of migration and in the environmental conditions occurring throughout the range may therefore result in sex-biases in distribution and resource use at different spatial scales. In order to identify the scale at which sexual segregation operates, and thus the scale at which environmental changes may have sex-biased impacts, we use range-wide tracking of individually color-ringed Icelandic black-tailed godwits (Limosa limosa islandica) to quantify sexual segregation at scales ranging from the occupation of sites throughout the non-breeding range to within-site differences in distribution and resource use. Throughout the range of this migratory shorebird, there is no evidence of large-scale sex differences in distribution during the non-breeding season. However, the sexes differ in their selection of prey types and sizes, which results in small-scale sexual segregation within estuaries. The scale of sexual segregation therefore depends on the scale of variation in resource distribution, which, in this system, is primarily within estuaries. Sexual segregation in within-site distribution and resource use means that local-scale anthropogenic impacts on estuarine benthic prey communities may disproportionately affect the sexes in these migratory shorebirds.

Costs, benefits, and fitness consequences of different migratory strategies.

The relative fitness of individuals across a population can shape distributions and drive population growth rates. Migratory species often winter over large geographic ranges, and individuals in different locations experience very different environmental conditions, including different migration costs, which can potentially create fitness inequalities. Here we used energetics models to quantify the trade-offs experienced by a migratory shorebird species at locations throughout the nonbreeding range, and the associated consequences for migratory performance, survival, and breeding habitat quality. Individuals experiencing more favorable winter conditions had higher survival rates, arrived on the breeding grounds earlier, and occupied better quality breeding areas, even when migration costs are substantially higher, than individuals from locations where the energy balance on the wintering grounds was less favorable. The energy costs and benefits of occupying different winter locations can therefore create fitness inequalities which can shape the distribution and population-wide demography of migratory species.

Rapid changes in phenotype distribution during range expansion in a migratory bird.

The capacity of species to track changing environmental conditions is a key component of population and range changes in response to environmental change. High levels of local adaptation may constrain expansion into new locations, while the relative fitness of dispersing individuals will influence subsequent population growth. However, opportunities to explore such processes are rare, particularly at scales relevant to species-based conservation strategies. Icelandic black-tailed godwits, Limosa limosa islandica, have expanded their range throughout Iceland over the last century. We show that current male morphology varies strongly in relation to the timing of colonization across Iceland, with small males being absent from recently occupied areas. Smaller males are also proportionately more abundant on habitats and sites with higher breeding success and relative abundance of females. This population-wide spatial structuring of male morphology is most likely to result from female preferences for small males and better-quality habitats increasing both small-male fitness and the dispersal probability of larger males into poorer-quality habitats. Such eco-evolutionary feedbacks may be a key driver of rates of population growth and range expansion and contraction.

Population-scale drivers of individual arrival times in migratory birds.

1. In migratory species, early arrival on the breeding grounds can often enhance breeding success. Timing of spring migration is therefore a key process that is likely to be influenced both by factors specific to individuals, such as the quality of winter and breeding locations and the distance between them, and by annual variation in weather conditions before and during migration. 2. The Icelandic black-tailed godwit Limosa limosa islandica population is currently increasing and, throughout Iceland, is expanding into poorer quality breeding areas. Using a unique data set of arrival times in Iceland in different years for individuals of known breeding and wintering locations, we show that individuals breeding in lower quality, recently occupied and colder areas arrive later than those from traditionally occupied areas. The population is also expanding into new wintering areas, and males from traditionally occupied winter sites also arrive earlier than those occupying novel sites. 3. Annual variation in timing of migration of individuals is influenced by large-scale weather systems (the North Atlantic Oscillation), but between-individual variation is a stronger predictor of arrival time than the NAO. Distance between winter and breeding sites does not influence arrival times. 4. Annual variation in timing of migration is therefore influenced by climatic factors, but the pattern of individual arrival is primarily related to breeding and winter habitat quality. These habitat effects on arrival patterns are likely to operate through variation in individual condition and local-scale density-dependent processes. Timing of migration thus appears to be a key component of the intricate relationship between wintering and breeding grounds in this migratory system.

Seasonal matching of habitat quality and fitness in a migratory bird.

When species occupy habitats that vary in quality, choice of habitat can be critical in determining individual fitness. In most migratory species, juveniles migrate independently of their parents and must therefore choose both breeding and winter habitats. Using a unique dataset of marked black-tailed godwits (Limosa limosa islandica) tracked throughout their migratory range, combined with analyses of stable carbon isotope ratios, we show that those individuals that occupy higher quality breeding sites also use higher quality winter sites. This seasonal matching can severely inflate inequalities in individual fitness. This population has expanded over the last century into poorer quality breeding and winter habitats and, across the whole population; individual birds tend to occupy either novel or traditional sites in both seasons. Winter and breeding season habitat selection are thus strongly linked throughout this population; these links have profound implications for a wide range of population and evolutionary processes. As adult godwits are highly philopatric, the initial choice of winter habitat by juveniles will be critical in determining future survival, timing of migration and breeding success.