Organisational factors and mortality after an emergency laparotomy: multilevel analysis of 39 903 National Emergency Laparotomy Audit patients.

BACKGROUND: Studies across healthcare systems have demonstrated between-hospital variation in survival after an emergency laparotomy. We postulate that this variation can be explained by differences in perioperative process delivery, underpinning organisational structures, and associated hospital characteristics. METHODS: We performed this nationwide, registry-based, prospective cohort study using data from the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit organisational and patient audit data sets. Outcome measures were all-cause 30- and 90-day postoperative mortality. We estimated adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for perioperative processes and organisational structures and characteristics by fitting multilevel logistic regression models. RESULTS: The cohort comprised 39 903 patients undergoing surgery at 185 hospitals. Controlling for case mix and clustering, a substantial proportion of between-hospital mortality variation was explained by differences in processes, infrastructure, and hospital characteristics. Perioperative care pathways [OR: 0.86; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.76-0.96; and OR: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.81-0.99] and emergency surgical units (OR: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.80-0.99; and OR: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.81-0.98) were associated with reduced 30- and 90-day mortality, respectively. In contrast, infrequent consultant-delivered intraoperative care was associated with increased 30- and 90-day mortality (OR: 1.61; 95% CI: 1.01-2.56; and OR: 1.61; 95% CI: 1.08-2.39, respectively). Postoperative geriatric medicine review was associated with substantially lower mortality in older (≥70 yr) patients (OR: 0.35; 95% CI: 0.29-0.42; and OR: 0.64; 95% CI: 0.55-0.73, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: This multicentre study identified low-technology, readily implementable structures and processes that are associated with improved survival after an emergency laparotomy. Key components of pathways, perioperative medicine input, and specialist units require further investigation.

Development and internal validation of a novel risk adjustment model for adult patients undergoing emergency laparotomy surgery: the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit risk model.

BACKGROUND: Among patients undergoing emergency laparotomy, 30-day postoperative mortality is around 10-15%. The risk of death among these patients, however, varies greatly because of their clinical characteristics. We developed a risk prediction model for 30-day postoperative mortality to enable better comparison of outcomes between hospitals. METHODS: We analysed data from the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) on patients having an emergency laparotomy between December 2013 and November 2015. A prediction model was developed using multivariable logistic regression, with potential risk factors identified from existing prediction models, national guidelines, and clinical experts. Continuous risk factors were transformed if necessary to reflect their non-linear relationship with 30-day mortality. The performance of the model was assessed in terms of its calibration and discrimination. Interval validation was conducted using bootstrap resampling. RESULTS: There were 4458 (11.5%) deaths within 30-days among the 38 830 patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. Variables associated with death included (among others): age, blood pressure, heart rate, physiological variables, malignancy, and ASA physical status classification. The predicted risk of death among patients ranged from 1% to 50%. The model demonstrated excellent calibration and discrimination, with a C-statistic of 0.863 (95% confidence interval, 0.858-0.867). The model retained its high discrimination during internal validation, with a bootstrap derived C-statistic of 0.861. CONCLUSIONS: The NELA risk prediction model for emergency laparotomies discriminates well between low- and high-risk patients and is suitable for producing risk-adjusted provider mortality statistics.

Systematic review of the influence of socioeconomic deprivation on mortality after colorectal surgery.

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic deprivation is a potentially important factor influencing surgical outcomes. This systematic review aimed to summarize the evidence for any association between socioeconomic group and mortality after colorectal surgery, and to report the definitions of deprivation used and the approaches taken to adjust for co-morbidity in this patient population. METHODS: MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Library and Web of Science were searched for studies up to November 2016 on adult patients undergoing major colorectal surgery, which reported on mortality according to socioeconomic group. Risk of bias and study quality were assessed by extracting data relating to study size, and variations in inclusion and exclusion criteria. Quality was assessed using a modification of a previously described assessment tool. RESULTS: The literature search identified 59 studies published between 1993 and 2016, reporting on 2 698 403 patients from eight countries. Overall findings showed evidence for higher mortality in more deprived socioeconomic groups, both in the perioperative period and in the longer term. Studies differed in how they defined socioeconomic groups, but the most common approach was to use one of a selection of multifactorial indices based on small geographical areas. There was no consistent approach to adjusting for co-morbidity but, where this was considered, the Charlson Co-morbidity Index was most frequently used. CONCLUSION: This systematic review suggests that socioeconomic deprivation influences mortality after colorectal surgery.