Large cell carcinoma of the lung: LDCT features and survival in screen-detected cases.

PURPOSE: To investigate the early radiological features and survival of Large Cell Carcinoma (LCC) cases diagnosed in low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening trials. METHODS: Two radiologists jointly reviewed the radiological features of screen-detected LCCs observed in NLST, ITALUNG, and LUSI trials between 2002 and 2016, comprising a total of 29,744 subjects who underwent 3-5 annual screening LDCT examinations. Survival or causes of death were established according to the mortality registries extending more than 12 years since randomization. RESULTS: LCC was diagnosed in 30 (4 %) of 750 subjects with screen-detected lung cancer (LC), including 15 prevalent and 15 incident cases. Three additional LCCs occurred as interval cancers during the screening period. LDCT images were available for 29 cases of screen-detected LCCs, and 28 showed a single, peripheral, and well-defined solid nodule or mass with regularly smooth (39 %), lobulated (43 %), or spiculated (18 %) margins. One case presented as hilar mass. In 9 incident LCCs, smaller solid nodules were identified in prior LDCT examinations, allowing us to calculate a mean Volume Doubling Time (VDT) of 98.7 ± 47.8 days. The overall five-year survival rate was 50 %, with a significant (p = 0.0001) difference between stages I-II (75 % alive) and stages III-IV (10 % alive). CONCLUSIONS: LCC is a fast-growing neoplasm that can escape detection by annual LDCT screening. LCC typically presents as a single solid peripheral nodule or mass, often with lobulated margins, and exhibits a short VDT. The 5-year survival reflects the stage at diagnosis.

Baseline Cell-Free DNA Can Predict Malignancy of Nodules Observed in the ITALUNG Screening Trial.

The role of total plasma cell-free DNA (cfDNA) in lung cancer (LC) screening with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) is uncertain. We hypothesized that cfDNA could support differentiation between malignant and benign nodules observed in LDCT. The baseline cfDNA was measured in 137 subjects of the ITALUNG trial, including 29 subjects with screen-detected LC (17 prevalent and 12 incident) and 108 subjects with benign nodules. The predictive capability of baseline cfDNA to differentiate malignant and benign nodules was compared to that of Lung-RADS classification and Brock score at initial LDCT (iLDCT). Subjects with prevalent LC showed both well-discriminating radiological characteristics of the malignant nodule (16 of 17 were classified as Lung-RADS 4) and markedly increased cfDNA (mean 18.8 ng/mL). The mean diameters and Brock scores of malignant nodules at iLDCT in subjects who were diagnosed with incident LC were not different from those of benign nodules. However, 75% (9/12) of subjects with incident LC showed a baseline cfDNA ≥ 3.15 ng/mL, compared to 34% (37/108) of subjects with benign nodules (p = 0.006). Moreover, baseline cfDNA was correlated (p = 0.001) with tumor growth, measured with volume doubling time. In conclusion, increased baseline cfDNA may help to differentiate subjects with malignant and benign nodules at LDCT.

Accuracy and Reproducibility of Cytology Triage in a HPV-Based Primary Screening Setting: A Revision of 384 Pap Tests.

INTRODUCTION: After the transition toward the HPV-based screening protocol, which has led to an increase in sensitivity, and in order to bring the specificity back to acceptable values, cytology underwent a change of approach, becoming a triage test. For these reasons, in the Tuscany region (after the recommendations of the GISCi document), it was decided to reduce, as much as possible, the use of ASC-US category in cytology triage, classifying these morphological cases as negative for intraepithelial lesion or malignancies (NILM) or LSIL, basing on the grade of nuclear atypia. So, in Italy, in a cytology triage context (HPV primary screening), a modified Bethesda system (TBS) is currently used. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of the review activity of 384 cytology triage cases and of the cervical cancer screening indicators (sensitivity and specificity for CIN2+ lesions) using the TBS 2014 or the modified TBS. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 384 HPV positive cases at one-year recall (192 with a cytology result of NILM both at baseline and at one-year recall; 192 with a cytology result of NILM at baseline but abnormal at one-year recall), all with a histologically confirmed result (128 CIN2+, 256 ≤ CIN1), were selected, and their baseline Pap tests were reviewed in blind mode by 5 expert cytologists. RESULTS: The cytological results of NILM were confirmed for 92.5% and 83.8% of cases using TBS 2014 or modified TBS, respectively. 20/128 CIN2+ cases could have been reported at the baseline cytology triage, causing an anticipatory effect and an improvement in sensitivity of the screening protocol at baseline (+15.6%). Using TBS 2014, the number of false positives more than tripled with respect to the modified TBS 2014, with a significant increase in unnecessary colposcopies (+11.4%). CONCLUSION: This work demonstrated that a greater expertise of cytologists, acquired during the following 3 years of experience with cytological triage, and a strong IQC system could lead to the identification of a significant number of lesions reported to baseline rather than at one-year recall (diagnostic anticipation).

Lung Cancer Screening with Low-Dose CT: What We Have Learned in Two Decades of ITALUNG and What Is Yet to Be Addressed.

The ITALUNG trial started in 2004 and compared lung cancer (LC) and other-causes mortality in 55-69 years-aged smokers and ex-smokers who were randomized to four annual chest low-dose CT (LDCT) or usual care. ITALUNG showed a lower LC and cardiovascular mortality in the screened subjects after 13 years of follow-up, especially in women, and produced many ancillary studies. They included recruitment results of a population-based mimicking approach, development of software for computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) and lung nodules volumetry, LDCT assessment of pulmonary emphysema and coronary artery calcifications (CAC) and their relevance to long-term mortality, results of a smoking-cessation intervention, assessment of the radiations dose associated with screening LDCT, and the results of biomarkers assays. Moreover, ITALUNG data indicated that screen-detected LCs are mostly already present at baseline LDCT, can present as lung cancer associated with cystic airspaces, and can be multiple. However, several issues of LC screening are still unaddressed. They include the annual vs. biennial pace of LDCT, choice between opportunistic or population-based recruitment. and between uni or multi-centre screening, implementation of CAD-assisted reading, containment of false positive and negative LDCT results, incorporation of emphysema. and CAC quantification in models of personalized LC and mortality risk, validation of ultra-LDCT acquisitions, optimization of the smoking-cessation intervention. and prospective validation of the biomarkers.

Relationship Between Baseline Prostate-specific Antigen on Cancer Detection and Prostate Cancer Death: Long-term Follow-up from the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer.

BACKGROUND: The European Association of Urology guidelines recommend a risk-based strategy for prostate cancer screening based on the first prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level and age. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the impact of the first PSA level on prostate cancer (PCa) detection and PCa-specific mortality (PCSM) in a population-based screening trial (repeat screening every 2-4 yr). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We evaluated 25589 men aged 55-59 yr, 16898 men aged 60-64 yr, and 12936 men aged 65-69 yr who attended at least one screening visit in the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) trial (screening arm: repeat PSA testing every 2-4 yr and biopsy in cases with elevated PSA; control arm: no active screening offered) during 16-yr follow-up (FU). OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: We assessed the actuarial probability for any PCa and for clinically significant (cs)PCa (Gleason ≥7). Cox proportional-hazards regression was performed to assess whether the association between baseline PSA and PCSM was comparable for all age groups. A Lorenz curve was computed to assess the association between baseline PSA and PCSM for men aged 60-61 yr. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: The overall actuarial probability at 16 yr ranged from 12% to 16% for any PCa and from 3.7% to 5.7% for csPCa across the age groups. The actuarial probability of csPCa at 16 yr ranged from 1.2-1.5% for men with PSA <1.0 ng/ml to 13.3-13.8% for men with PSA ≥3.0 ng/ml. The association between baseline PSA and PCSM differed marginally among the three age groups. A Lorenz curve for men aged 60-61 yr showed that 92% of lethal PCa cases occurred among those with PSA above the median (1.21 ng/ml). In addition, for men initially screened at age 60-61 yr with baseline PSA <2 ng/ml, further continuation of screening is unlikely to be beneficial after the age of 68-70 yr if PSA is still <2 ng/ml. No case of PCSM emerged in the subsequent 8 yr (up to age 76-78 yr). A limitation is that these results may not be generalizable to an opportunistic screening setting or to contemporary clinical practice. CONCLUSIONS: In all age groups, baseline PSA can guide decisions on the repeat screening interval. Baseline PSA of <1.0 ng/ml for men aged 55-69 yr is a strong indicator to delay or stop further screening. PATIENT SUMMARY: In prostate cancer screening, the patient's baseline PSA (prostate-specific antigen) level can be used to guide decisions on when to repeat screening. The PSA test when used according to current knowledge is valuable in helping to reduce the burden of prostate cancer.

Pulmonary emphysema and coronary artery calcifications at baseline LDCT and long-term mortality in smokers and former smokers of the ITALUNG screening trial.

OBJECTIVES: Cardiovascular disease (CVD), lung cancer (LC), and respiratory diseases are main causes of death in smokers and former smokers undergoing low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) for LC screening. We assessed whether quantification of pulmonary emphysematous changes at baseline LDCT has a predictive value concerning long-term mortality. METHODS: In this longitudinal study, we assessed pulmonary emphysematous changes with densitometry (volume corrected relative area below - 950 Hounsfield units) and coronary artery calcifications (CAC) with a 0-3 visual scale in baseline LDCT of 524 participants in the ITALUNG trial and analyzed their association with mortality after 13.6 years of follow-up using conventional statistics and a machine learning approach. RESULTS: Pulmonary emphysematous changes were present in 32.3% of subjects and were mild (6% ≤ RA950 ≤ 9%) in 14.9% and moderate-severe (RA950 > 9%) in 17.4%. CAC were present in 67% of subjects (mild in 34.7%, moderate-severe in 32.2%). In the follow-up, 81 (15.4%) subjects died (20 of LC, 28 of other cancers, 15 of CVD, 4 of respiratory disease, and 14 of other conditions). After adjusting for age, sex, smoking history, and CAC, moderate-severe emphysema was significantly associated with overall (OR 2.22; 95CI 1.34-3.70) and CVD (OR 3.66; 95CI 1.21-11.04) mortality. Machine learning showed that RA950 was the best single feature predictive of overall and CVD mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Moderate-severe pulmonary emphysematous changes are an independent predictor of long-term overall and CVD mortality in subjects participating in LC screening and should be incorporated in the post-test calculation of the individual mortality risk profile. KEY POINTS: • Densitometry allows quantification of pulmonary emphysematous changes in low-dose CT examinations for lung cancer screening. • Emphysematous lung density changes are an independent predictor of long-term overall and cardio-vascular disease mortality in smokers and former smokers undergoing screening. • Emphysematous changes quantification should be included in the post-test calculation of the individual mortality risk profile.

Single CT Appointment for Double Lung and Colorectal Cancer Screening: Is the Time Ripe?

Annual screening of lung cancer (LC) with chest low-dose computed tomography (CT) and screening of colorectal cancer (CRC) with CT colonography every 5 years are recommended by the United States Prevention Service Task Force. We review epidemiological and pathological data on LC and CRC, and the features of screening chest low-dose CT and CT colonography comprising execution, reading, radiation exposure and harm, and the cost effectiveness of the two CT screening interventions. The possibility of combining chest low-dose CT and CT colonography examinations for double LC and CRC screening in a single CT appointment is then addressed. We demonstrate how this approach appears feasible and is already reasonable as an opportunistic screening intervention in 50-75-year-old subjects with smoking history and average CRC risk. In addition to the crucial role Computer Assisted Diagnosis systems play in decreasing the test reading times and the need to educate radiologists in screening chest LDCT and CT colonography, in view of a single CT appointment for double screening, the following uncertainties need to be solved: (1) the schedule of the screening CT; (2) the effectiveness of iterative reconstruction and deep learning algorithms affording an ultra-low-dose CT acquisition technique and (3) management of incidental findings. Resolving these issues will imply new cost-effectiveness analyses for LC screening with chest low dose CT and for CRC screening with CT colonography and, especially, for the double LC and CRC screening with a single-appointment CT.

Intervention-related Deaths in the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Identification of intervention-related deaths is important for an accurate assessment of the ratio of benefit to harm in screening trials. OBJECTIVE: To investigate intervention-related deaths by study arm in the European Randomized Study of Prostate Cancer Screening (ERSPC). DESIGN SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: ERSPC is a multicenter trial initiated in the 1990s to investigate whether screening on the basis of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) can decrease prostate cancer mortality. The present study included men in the core age group (55-69 yr: screening group n = 112 553, control group n = 128 681) with 16-yr follow-up. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Causes of death among men with prostate cancer in ERSPC were predominantly evaluated by independent national committees via review of medical records according to a predefined algorithm. Intervention-related deaths were defined as deaths caused by complications during the screening procedure, treatment, or follow-up. Descriptive statistics were used for the results. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: In total, 34 deaths were determined to be intervention-related, of which 21 were in the screening arm and 13 in the control arm. The overall risk of intervention-related death was 1.41 (95% confidence interval 0.99-1.99) per 10 000 randomized men for both arms combined and varied among centers from 0 to 7.0 per 10 000 randomized men. A limitation of this study is that differences in procedures among centers decreased the comparability of the results. CONCLUSIONS: Intervention-related deaths were rare in ERSPC. Monitoring of intervention-related deaths in screening trials is important for assessment of harms. PATIENT SUMMARY: We investigated deaths due to screening or treatment to assess harm in a trial of prostate cancer screening. Few such deaths were identified.

Moderate-severe coronary calcification predicts long-term cardiovascular death in CT lung cancer screening: The ITALUNG trial.

PURPOSE: Coronary artery calcifications (CAC) are very strong indicators for increased cardio-vascular (CV) risk and can be evaluated also in low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) for lung cancer screening. We assessed whether a simple and fast CAC visual score is associated with CV mortality. METHODS: CAC were retrospectively assessed by two observers using a 4-score (absent, mild, moderate and severe) scale in baseline LDCT obtained in 1364 participants to the ITALUNG trial who had 55-69 years of age and a smoking history ≥20 pack-years. Correlations with CV risk factors at baseline and with CV mortality after 11 years of follow-up were investigated. RESULTS: CAC were absent in 470 (34.5%), mild in 433 (31.7%), moderate in 357 (26.2%) and severe in 104 (7.6%) subjects. CAC severity correlated (≤0.001) with age, male sex, pack-years, history of arterial hypertension or diabetes, obesity and treated hypercholesterolemia. Twenty-one CV deaths occurred. Moderate or severe CAC were significantly associated with higher CV mortality after adjustment for all other known risk factors (ARR = 2.72; 95 %CI:1.04-7.11). Notably, also in subjects with none or one only additional CV risk factor, the presence of moderate-severe CAC allowed to identify a subgroup of subjects with higher CV death risk (RR = 3.66; CI95%:1.06-12.6). CONCLUSIONS: Moderate or severe CAC visually assessed in LDCT examinations for lung cancer screening are independently associated with CV mortality.

Validation of a new fully automated software for 2D digital mammographic breast density evaluation in predicting breast cancer risk.

We compared accuracy for breast cancer (BC) risk stratification of a new fully automated system (DenSeeMammo-DSM) for breast density (BD) assessment to a non-inferiority threshold based on radiologists' visual assessment. Pooled analysis was performed on 14,267 2D mammograms collected from women aged 48-55 years who underwent BC screening within three studies: RETomo, Florence study and PROCAS. BD was expressed through clinical Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) density classification. Women in BI-RADS D category had a 2.6 (95% CI 1.5-4.4) and a 3.6 (95% CI 1.4-9.3) times higher risk of incident and interval cancer, respectively, than women in the two lowest BD categories. The ability of DSM to predict risk of incident cancer was non-inferior to radiologists' visual assessment as both point estimate and lower bound of 95% CI (AUC 0.589; 95% CI 0.580-0.597) were above the predefined visual assessment threshold (AUC 0.571). AUC for interval (AUC 0.631; 95% CI 0.623-0.639) cancers was even higher. BD assessed with new fully automated method is positively associated with BC risk and is not inferior to radiologists' visual assessment. It is an even stronger marker of interval cancer, confirming an appreciable masking effect of BD that reduces mammography sensitivity.

Prognostic selection and long-term survival analysis to assess overdiagnosis risk in lung cancer screening randomized trials.

OBJECTIVES: Overdiagnosis in low-dose computed tomography randomized screening trials varies from 0 to 67%. The National Lung Screening Trial (extended follow-up) and ITALUNG (Italian Lung Cancer Screening Trial) have reported cumulative incidence estimates at long-term follow-up showing low or no overdiagnosis. The Danish Lung Cancer Screening Trial attributed the high overdiagnosis estimate to a likely selection for risk of the active arm. Here, we applied a method already used in benefit and overdiagnosis assessments to compute the long-term survival rates in the ITALUNG arms in order to confirm incidence-excess method assessment. METHODS: Subjects in the active arm were invited for four screening rounds, while controls were in usual care. Follow-up was extended to 11.3 years. Kaplan-Meyer 5- and 10-year survivals of "resected and early" (stage I or II and resected) and "unresected or late" (stage III or IV or not resected or unclassified) lung cancer cases were compared between arms. RESULTS: The updated ITALUNG control arm cumulative incidence rate was lower than in the active arm, but this was not statistically significant (RR: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.67-1.18). A compensatory drop of late cases was observed after baseline screening. The proportion of "resected and early" cases was 38% and 19%, in the active and control arms, respectively. The 10-year survival rates were 64% and 60% in the active and control arms, respectively (p = 0.689). The five-year survival rates for "unresected or late" cases were 10% and 7% in the active and control arms, respectively (p = 0.679). CONCLUSIONS: This long-term survival analysis, by prognostic categories, concluded against the long-term risk of overdiagnosis and contributed to revealing how screening works.

[Early effects of attendance to the Friuli Venezia Giulia (Northern Italy) mammography screening programme on the incidence of advanced-stage breast cancer: a cohort study]. / Effetti precoci dell'adesione al programma di screening mammografico della Regione Friuli Venezia Giulia sull'incidenza del cancro della mammella in stadio avanzato: uno studio di coorte.

OBJECTIVES: to evaluate the incidence of advanced-stage breast cancer (BC) - an early surrogate indicator of effectiveness of mammography screening - among women who attended the Friuli Venezia Giulia (FVG) Region (Northern Italy) screening programme compared to women who did not attend. DESIGN: retrospective cohort study. Women invited to the first screening round (2006-2007) were identified from the database of the programme. The cohort was record-linked to the archive of women invited to the second round (2008-2009). The definition of attendance to screening was based on attendance to at least one of the two rounds. The incidence of BC was assessed through record linkage with the FVG cancer registry using an anonymous univocal identifier (end of follow-up: 31st December 2013). Three distinct definitions of advanced stage were used: pT2 or greater (pT2+), positive lymph nodes (pN+), and TNM stage II or greater (stage II+). SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: organized mammography screening programme for women aged 50-69 years in the five regional healthcare districts. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: incidence rate ratio (IRR) between attenders and non-attenders, adjusted for age and deprivation index, with 95% confidence interval (95%CI). RESULTS: the cohort included 104,488 attenders and 49,839 non-attenders. During follow-up (median duration 84 months), 2,717 invasive BCs were diagnosed among attenders and 1,149 among non-attenders. Total incidence rate was 13% higher among attenders (IRR 1.13; 95%CI 1.05-1.21). These, conversely, had a 36% lower rate of pT2+ BC (IRR 0.64; 95%CI 0.56-0.72), a 13% lower rate of pN+ BC (IRR 0.87; 95%CI 0.78-0.98), a 22% lower rate of stage II+ BC (IRR 0.78; 95%CI 0.70-0.87), and a 32% lower rate of mastectomy (IRR 0.68; 95%CI 0.60-0.78). CONCLUSIONS: attenders had lower incidence rates of advanced-stage BC. This early effect is suggestive of a future impact of the screening programme on BC mortality.

Smoking Cessation in the ITALUNG Lung Cancer Screening: What Does "Teachable Moment" Mean?

BACKGROUND: Changes in smoking habits and predictors of smoking cessation were examined in the randomized ITALUNG lung cancer screening trial. METHODS: In three centers, eligible smokers or ex-smokers (55-69 years, ≥20 pack-years in the last 10 years) were randomized to receive annual invitation for low-dose computed tomography for 4 years or usual care. At invitation, subjects received written information for a free smoking cessation program. Quitting outcome was assessed at year 4. RESULTS: Among participants who completed baseline assessments and year 4 screening, higher quitting (20.8% vs. 16.7%, p = .029) and lower relapse (6.41% vs. 7.56%, p = .50) rates were observed in the active screening group as compared to the usual-care control group. Corresponding figures in the intention-to-treat analysis were as follows: 16.04% versus 14.64% (p = .059) and 4.88% versus 6.43% (p = .26). Quitting smoking was significantly associated to male gender, lower pack-years, and having pulmonary nodules at baseline. Center-specific analyses showed a threefold statistically significant higher probability to quit associated with participating in the smoking cessation program. A subsample of smokers of the scan group from one center showed higher quitting rates over 12-month follow-up as compared to matched controls from the general population who underwent the same smoking cessation program. CONCLUSIONS: Consistently with previous reports, in the ITALUNG trial, screened subjects showed significantly higher quit rates than controls, and higher quit rates were associated with both the presence of pulmonary nodules and participating in a smoking cessation program. Maximal effect on quitting outcome was observed with the participation in the smoking cessation program. IMPLICATIONS: Participating in lung cancer screening promotes smoking cessation. An effective "teachable moment" may be achieved when the smoking cessation intervention is structured as integral part of the screening clinical visits and conducted by a dedicated team of health care professionals. Standardized guidelines for smoking cessation interventions in lung cancer screening are needed.

Decreased cardiovascular mortality in the ITALUNG lung cancer screening trial: Analysis of underlying factors.

OBJECTIVES: In the ITALUNG lung cancer screening trial after 9.3 years of follow-up we observed an unexpected significant decrease of cardiovascular (CV) mortality in subjects invited for low-dose CT (LDCT) screening as compared to controls undergoing usual care. Herein we extended the mortality follow-up and analyzed the potential factors underlying such a decrease. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The following factors were assessed in screenes and controls: burden of CV disease at baseline, changes in smoking habits, use of CV drugs and frequency of planned vascular procedures after randomisation. Moreover, in the screenes we evaluated inclusion of presence of coronary artery calcification (CAC) in the LDCT report form that was transmitted to the participant and his/her General Practitioner. RESULTS: The 2-years extension of follow-up confirmed a significant decrease of CV mortality in the subjects of the active group compared to control subjects (15.6 vs 34.0 per 10,000; p = 0.001) that was not observed in the drops-out of the active group. None of the explaining factors we considered significantly differed between active and control group. However, the subjects of the active group with reported CAC experienced a not significantly lower CV mortality and showed a significantly higher use of CV drugs and frequency of planned vascular procedures than the control group. CONCLUSIONS: LDCT screening for lung cancer offers the opportunity for detection of CAC that is an important CV risk factor. Although the underlying mechanisms are not clear, our results suggest that the inclusion of information about CAC presence in the LDCT report may represent a candidate factor to explain the decreased CV mortality observed in screened subjects of the ITALUNG trial, possibly resulting in intervention for patient care to prevent CV deaths. Further studies investigating whether prospective reporting and rating of CAC have independent impact on such interventions and CV mortality are worthy.

A 16-yr Follow-up of the European Randomized study of Screening for Prostate Cancer.

BACKGROUND: The European Randomized study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) has previously demonstrated that prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening decreases prostate cancer (PCa) mortality. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether PSA screening decreases PCa mortality for up to 16yr and to assess results following adjustment for nonparticipation and the number of screening rounds attended. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This multicentre population-based randomised screening trial was conducted in eight European countries. Report includes 182160 men, followed up until 2014 (maximum of 16yr), with a predefined core age group of 162389 men (55-69yr), selected from population registry. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: The outcome was PCa mortality, also assessed with adjustment for nonparticipation and the number of screening rounds attended. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: The rate ratio of PCa mortality was 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.72-0.89, p<0.001) at 16yr. The difference in absolute PCa mortality increased from 0.14% at 13yr to 0.18% at 16yr. The number of men needed to be invited for screening to prevent one PCa death was 570 at 16yr compared with 742 at 13yr. The number needed to diagnose was reduced to 18 from 26 at 13yr. Men with PCa detected during the first round had a higher prevalence of PSA >20ng/ml (9.9% compared with 4.1% in the second round, p<0.001) and higher PCa mortality (hazard ratio=1.86, p<0.001) than those detected subsequently. CONCLUSIONS: Findings corroborate earlier results that PSA screening significantly reduces PCa mortality, showing larger absolute benefit with longer follow-up and a reduction in excess incidence. Repeated screening may be important to reduce PCa mortality on a population level. PATIENT SUMMARY: In this report, we looked at the outcomes from prostate cancer in a large European population. We found that repeated screening reduces the risk of dying from prostate cancer.

Volumetric breast density and risk of advanced cancers after a negative screening episode: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated the association between volumetric breast density (BD) and risk of advanced cancers after a negative screening episode. METHODS: A cohort of 16,752 women aged 49-54 years at their first screening mammography in the Florence screening programme was followed for breast cancer (BC) incidence until the second screening round. Volumetric BD was measured using fully automated software. The cumulative incidence of advanced cancer after a negative screening episode (including stage II or more severe cancer during the screening interval - on average 28 months - and at the subsequent round) was calculated separately for Volpara density grade (VDG) categories. RESULTS: BC incidence gradually increased with the increas in BD: 3.7‰, 5.1‰, 5.4‰ and 9.1‰ in the VDG categories 1-4, respectively (p trend < 0.001). The risk of advanced cancers after a negative screening episode was 1.0‰, 1.3‰, 1.1‰, and 4.2‰ (p trend = 0.003). The highest BD category, compared with the other three together, has double the invasive BC risk (RR = 2.0; 95% CI 1.5-2.8) and almost fourfold risk of advanced cancer (RR = 3.8; 95% CI 1.8-8.0). CONCLUSION: BD has a strong impact on the risk of advanced cancers after a negative screening episode, the best early surrogate of BC mortality. Therefore, our results suggest that screening effectiveness is quite different among BD categories.

Monitoring vaccine and non-vaccine HPV type prevalence in the post-vaccination era in women living in the Basilicata region, Italy.

BACKGROUND: A large free-of-charge quadrivalent HPV (qHPV) vaccination program, covering four cohorts annually (women 11, 14, 17 and 24 years), has been implemented in Basilicata since 2007. This study evaluated vaccine and non-vaccine HPV prevalence 5-7 years post-vaccination program implementation in vaccinated and unvaccinated women. METHODS: This population-based, cross-sectional study was conducted in the public screening centers of the Local Health Unit in Matera between 2012 and 2014. Cervical samples were obtained for Pap and HPV testing (HC2, LiPA Extra® assay) and participants completed a sociodemographic and behavioral questionnaire. Detailed HPV vaccination status was retrieved from the official HPV vaccine registry. HPV prevalence was described overall, by type and vaccination status. The association between HPV type-detection and risk/protective factors was studied. Direct vaccine protection (qHPV vaccine effectiveness [VE]), cross-protection, and type-replacement were evaluated in cohorts eligible for vaccination, by analyzing HPV prevalence of vaccine and non-vaccine types according to vaccination status. RESULTS: Overall, 2793 women (18-50 years) were included, 1314 of them having been in birth cohorts eligible for the HPV vaccination program (18- to 30-year-old women at enrolment). Among the latter, qHPV vaccine uptake was 59% (at least one dose), with 94% completing the schedule; standardized qHPV type prevalence was 0.6% in vaccinated versus 5.5% in unvaccinated women (P <0.001); adjusted VE against vaccine type infections was 90% (95% CI: 73%-96%) for all fully vaccinated women and 100% (95% CI not calculable) in women vaccinated before sexual debut. No statistically significant difference in overall high-risk HPV, high-risk non-vaccine HPV, or any single non-vaccine type prevalence was observed between vaccinated and unvaccinated women. CONCLUSIONS: These results, conducted in a post-vaccine era, suggest a high qHPV VE and that a well-implemented catch-up vaccination program may be efficient in reducing vaccine-type infections in a real-world setting. No cross-protective effect or evidence of type-replacement was observed a few years after HPV vaccine introduction.

Does low-dose aspirin use for cardiovascular disease prevention reduce colorectal cancer deaths? A comparison of two cohorts in the Florence district, Italy.

Aspirin has been associated with reduced incidence and mortality of colorectal and a few other cancers. The aim of our paper was to study the effect of low-dose aspirin intake on cancer mortality in a population-based cohort study. The study included inhabitants of the Florence district (Italy) at the beginning of 2007. We considered two cohorts: patients who received prescriptions of low-dose aspirin for the whole year and patients who did not have any prescriptions over the same period. We followed the two cohorts until 31 December 2013. By linking with the Tuscany Mortality Registry, we analysed cause-specific mortality. We used a Cox semiparametric model to compare the mortality of the two cohorts. There was an 18% higher probability [hazard ratio (HR)=1.18, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.12-1.23] for all causes of death among the cohort of aspirin users, almost completely caused by cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) (HR=1.39, 95% CI: 1.29-1.49). Colorectal cancer mortality was reduced by almost 30% (HR=0.71, 95% CI: 0.52-0.97). Death caused by major bleeding was 11% higher (HR=1.11, 95% CI: 0.86-1.44), but not statistically significant. Our results support the hypothesis that the use of low-dose aspirin for CVD prevention reduces colorectal cancer mortality. Given the growing ability to identify subgroups of individuals with an increased risk of developing cancer, further studies are needed to study the effectiveness of different cancer screening strategies tailored to these specific subgroups. Our study suggests the importance of focusing on this issue from the opposite perspective, that is, considering subgroups of individuals at decreased risk, such as the subgroup of individuals who take low-dose aspirin for CVD prevention. Thus, further assessments are needed to possibly identify subgroup-specific screening strategies that would be more effective than those developed for average-risk individuals.