The anti-inflammatory cytokine response characterized by elevated interleukin-10 is a stronger predictor of severe disease and poor outcomes than the pro-inflammatory cytokine response in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

OBJECTIVES: Severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is associated with a dysregulated immune state. While research has focused on the hyperinflammation, little research has been performed on the compensatory anti-inflammatory response. The aim of this study was to evaluate the anti-inflammatory cytokine response to COVID-19, by assessing interleukin-10 (IL-10) and IL-10/lymphocyte count ratio and their association with outcomes. METHODS: Adult patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 were recruited. The primary endpoint was maximum COVID-19 severity within 30 days of index ED visit. RESULTS: A total of 52 COVID-19 patients were enrolled. IL-10 and IL-10/lymphocyte count were significantly higher in patients with severe disease (p<0.05), as well as in those who developed severe acute kidney injury (AKI) and new positive bacterial cultures (all p≤0.01). In multivariable analysis, a one-unit increase in IL-10 and IL-10/lymphocyte count were associated with 42% (p=0.031) and 32% (p=0.013) increased odds, respectively, of severe COVID-19. When standardized to a one-unit standard deviations scale, an increase in the IL-10 was a stronger predictor of maximum 30-day severity and severe AKI than increases in IL-6 or IL-8. CONCLUSIONS: The hyperinflammatory response to COVID-19 is accompanied by a simultaneous anti-inflammatory response, which is associated with poor outcomes and may increase the risk of new positive bacterial cultures. IL-10 and IL-10/lymphocyte count at ED presentation were independent predictors of COVID-19 severity. Moreover, elevated IL-10 was more strongly associated with outcomes than pro-inflammatory IL-6 or IL-8. The anti-inflammatory response in COVID-19 requires further investigation to enable more precise immunomodulatory therapy against SARS-CoV-2.

Red Blood Cell Distribution Width (RDW) Predicts COVID-19 Severity: A Prospective, Observational Study from the Cincinnati SARS-CoV-2 Emergency Department Cohort.

Since previous evidence has demonstrated that red blood cell distribution width (RDW) may be a useful prognostic parameter in many critical illnesses and infectious diseases, we investigated the utility of RDW for monitoring patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The study population consisted of 49 COVID-19 patients, including 16 (32.6%) with severe illness, 12 (24.5%) with severe acute kidney injury (AKI), and 8 (16.3%) requiring renal replacement therapy (RRT). The predictive value of blood tests, performed during emergency department evaluation, was then addressed. A progressive increase of RDW was observed with advancing COVID-19 severity. The area under the curve (AUC) of RDW was 0.73 for predicting severe illness, 0.80 for severe AKI, and 0.83 for RRT, respectively. In multivariate analysis, elevated RDW was associated with 9-fold and 16-fold increased odds of severe COVID-19 and AKI, respectively. The results of this study suggest that RDW should be part of routine laboratory assessment and monitoring of COVID-19.