A prediction model for stillbirth based on first trimester pre-eclampsia combined screening.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the accuracy of combined models of maternal biophysical factors, ultrasound, and biochemical markers for predicting stillbirths. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of pregnant women undergoing first-trimester pre-eclampsia screening at 11-13 gestational weeks was conducted. Maternal characteristics and history, mean arterial pressure (MAP) measurement, uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) ultrasound, maternal ophthalmic peak ratio Doppler, and placental growth factor (PlGF) serum were collected during the visit. Stillbirth was classified as placental dysfunction-related when it occurred with pre-eclampsia or birth weight <10th percentile. Combined prediction models were developed from significant variables in stillbirths, placental dysfunction-related, and controls. We used the area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity based on a specific cutoff to evaluate the model's predictive performance by measuring the capacity to distinguish between stillbirths and live births. RESULTS: There were 13 (0.79%) cases of stillbirth in 1643 women included in the analysis. The combination of maternal factors, MAP, UtA-PI, and PlGF, significantly contributed to the prediction of stillbirth. This model was a good predictor for all (including controls) types of stillbirth (AUC 0.879, 95% CI: 0.799-0.959, sensitivity of 99.3%, specificity of 38.5%), and an excellent predictor for placental dysfunction-related stillbirth (AUC 0.984, 95% CI: 0.960-1.000, sensitivity of 98.5, specificity of 85.7). CONCLUSION: Screening at 11-13 weeks' gestation by combining maternal factors, MAP, UtA-PI, and PlGF, can predict a high proportion of stillbirths. Our model has good accuracy for predicting stillbirths, predominantly placental dysfunction-related stillbirths.

Incidence and first trimester risk factors of stillbirth in Indonesia.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the incidence and the risk factors of stillbirth from maternal biophysical, ultrasound, and biochemical markers at 11-13 weeks of gestation in the Indonesian population. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of pregnant women for first-trimester preeclampsia screening at 11-13 weeks of gestation in some clinics and hospital in Jakarta. Maternal characteristics and history, mean arterial pressure (MAP) measurement, uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) ultrasound, maternal ophthalmic peak ratio (Oph-PR) Doppler, and placental growth factor (PlGF) serum were collected during the visit. Stillbirth was classified into placental dysfunction-related when it occurred with preeclampsia or birth weight <10th percentile and non-placental dysfunction-related. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were employed to determine the risk factors associated with stillbirth. RESULTS: Of 1,643 eligible participants, 13 (0.79 %) stillbirth cases were reported. More than half of the stillbirths (7) were placental dysfunction-related. After adjusted with maternal age, body mass index (BMI), and parity status, chronic hypertension (aOR (adjusted odds ratio)) 24.41, 95 % CI {confidence interval} 5.93-100.43), previous pregnancy with preeclampsia (aOR 15.79, 95 % CI 4.42-56.41), MAP >101.85 (aOR 26.67, 95 % CI 8.26-86.06), UtA-PI >1.90 (aOR 10.68, 95 % CI 2.34-48.58, and PlGF <28.77 pg/mL (aOR 18.60, 95 % CI 5.59-61.92) were associated with stillbirth. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of stillbirth in the population is comparable to studies conducted in developed countries. Most routine variables assessed at the 11-13 weeks combined screening for preeclampsia are associated with the risk of stillbirth.